Josh J Kennedy – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Name: Josh J Kennedy
Club: West Coast
Position: Forward
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $272,300
Bye Round: 12
2012 Average: 52.8
2012 Games Played: 7
Predicted Average: 82

Why should I pick him?

The most obvious and convincing answer is that he will be incredible value. Like underpriced players such as Porplyzia (2012), Petrie (2011) and Waters (2010 and 2012) in the past, Kennedy is priced well below his previous and expected future output. He played just 7 games this year due to the painful and restrictive plantar fasciitis, which usually means he would receive a 10% discount on his 52.8 avg – but players who have averaged under 55 in the past generally haven’t been discounted. Either way, to improve on 52.8 won’t be an issue – to put that in perspective, Scott Gumbleton averaged 53.8 points per game last year…. So yeah, he’ll smash that.

His success as a value pick comes down to how much he can improve on last year’s output. Porplyzia improved on his effective average by 35.8 points, Petrie by 36.9 and Waters by 52.7 and 23.3 in those highly successful years I mentioned above – can Josh Kennedy get into the ball-park of these figures? Absolutely.

The graph above shows Kennedy’s yearly averages over his career, fitting to a career arc nicely. So if we take 2012 as an outlier – obviously JJK wasn’t at his best this season, troubled in those he played by that ankle ailment for just 7 games – then based on his steadily rising scores up until that point, it’s fair to assume that his average will continue to rise as he comes into his prime while the Eagles are Top 4 contenders. Natural improvement alone should see him topping 80 points a game.

If JJK has a solid pre-season (training-wise, I’m not worried about the NAB cup), then he should have a very similar season to 2011. West Coast are still towards the top end of the ladder, as they were in ’11, which has a significant influence on a player’s scoring (as opposed to playing in a weaker side), and that effect is most noticeable with CHFs (Highest scoring CHFs of the last 5 years – Franklin, Riewoldt, Pavlich and Cloke. No surprise they’ve all played for finals-quality sides). It’s important to note that Kennedy will benefit from having a fit LeCras and fit Darling by his side – he struggled a bit being the main focus (and underdone) in the last four games of 2012. With the rest of the West Coast forward line fit, he will drift back into his roaming role and blend into the attack with plenty of other dangerous options around him for defenders to worry about.

And lastly, and perhaps most importantly, he’s a top bloke. I don’t know about you, but I think I’d quit if I had a DT full of the Milnes, Firritos, and Cale Mortons of the world – it’s always better to have a team full of players you actually like. Evidence here.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

For a player coming off an injury-affected year, durability is the obvious concern. I’m not going to go into the medical details, but basically, plantar fasciitis is caused by continuous stress to the arch of the foot, which causes microscopic tears that accumulate and compound over time. This wasn’t something that he suffered in Round 5 (his last game before a 4 month break), it was an ailment that had been dealing with as early as the pre-season. That voids his whole 2012 season for mine. So if he can get up in Round 1 after doing a full pre-season – and all the running, kicking, jumping and twisting that it involves – I won’t be too worried. It’s volume of activity that aggravates his condition, not playing AFL football, so the risk of re-injury will be low.

Another reason could be that you think he’ll be rusty after last year. Given that the Eagles have a couple of tough games early up (Fremantle, Hawthorn and Carlton in first four rounds), it’s probably reasonable to expect him to start slow until he builds up his confidence.

Apart from that JJK is all upside – I can’t think of another reason not to pick him – except that you might have others ahead of him now that the forward line has been reduced by one.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN – In the age of the Mid/Fwd DPP, it’s hard to see JJK scoring enough to earn a spot in the top 10 Forwards by average. However, at his price, he only has to average 70-odd (a figure that he topped in the three seasons prior to 2012) to render himself a worthwhile mid-price Cash Cow and become that useful stepping stone to a full-blown Premium with an upgrade-downgrade manoeuvre around the bye period. If he produces any more than that it’s a bonus; and if he tops 80 points a game as I’ve predicted, then he’s a perfect 5th or 6th Forward that you can carry with you for the entire season.

For those interested, here are my projected stats for JJK in 2013:

 I’m all in at this stage! Are you convinced?

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @Tbetta9 for all things fantasy. Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

26 Comments

  • Geez great reseach mate!!! Not going near him, Darling will be more DT relevant IMO. Again, great write up mate.

  • Good write up Tbetta! His a no for me, Lecras should be cheaper and will score just as much if not more than JJK.

  • Nice write up. Especially loved Kennedy’s video, that was hilarious! ;)

  • Good as always Tbetta. Despite your analysis this type of injury can be repetitive so I will say no at this time. But if he has a good preseason might well be worth considering.

  • Only not picking him because of the Lecras factor, similar price and better upside

  • I’ve got him locked in my forward line.

  • As with Lake you have to look beyond the statistics. Removing the extreme outlier of his 10 goal game against the Bulldogs his average has been 73.6, 70.8 and 73.4. That’s pretty consistent but I think that suggests he’s reached his ceiling. He’s 25 now and I don’t see much improvement left in him personally. I wouldn’t expect more than 75 from him this year. Now that might be OK some years but with better mid-price options around him he doesn’t get a gig.

  • Dont the prices come out today??

    • Btw nice write up Tbetta, very convincing but I am saying no because we already jnow what Lecras can produce because of his 2011 average.

  • Well I won’t be picking him for his acting ability

  • haha love the write up mate, gotta love the tbetta graphs, very effective

  • Good pitch on an Eagles player Tbetta but I don’t see the cost v. reward and competition from other available players at the position allowing him a spot in my side. Lecras on the other hand (as long as his price is similar to FP) has been given a guernsey so far…

  • As the beejeebers asked – why hasn’t DT been activated for those who had assistant coach this year.
    Was originally going to be 15/12 then changed to 17/12 yet we are still waiting.
    I know it sounds stupid when it is still so far away from the start of the year but i hate the suspense.

    • They’re saying tomorrow night. Hopefully they mean it this time.

    • Bloody annoying!

      Fiance goes away for 2 weeks and won’t be back to the 19th. Great – plenty of time to have a good go at Assistant Coach Team Picker, from the 15th onwards, so I agree with her no fantasy footy for a week after she gets back. Then the date gets shuffled back to the 17th – OK, still got a couple of evenings. Now the 18th and she’s coming back a @#$%$#@ day early!

      What’s the point of buying something that doesn’t deliver on its promises?

      I want my money back, Virtual Sports!

      • Haha, I don’t think you could find a better argument than that.

      • My heart bleeds for you Arthur. LOL. Sure you can’t arrange for the missus to take a few more days????

        • Got another week from Boxing Day with just the lads!

          But like you said in your post, ‘coot, the bloody suspense is killing me. It’s like I was on the vinegar stroke and some buggers dragged me off the job!

  • Great work Tbetta but a pass for me – there are more seductive options in the forward line this year for mine.

  • How did you make that career arc line ??
    Awesome job

  • Fat kid meets Smartie.