Nix DreamTrader – Rd 15

Just when you thought it was safe to run down your trades and coast to the end of the year we have a few weeks of missing player carnage.

Those coaches who have a few trades left might find this trade and future price calculator tool useful.

It should be self explanatory and has instructions in the spreadsheet.

I think it is pretty robust, but it is difficult to test every type of trade.  This is the first release and I expect some anomalies will turn up.  If you think it is giving a wrong answer, please post here or let me know and I will have a look at it.  If necessary I can amend the calculations for the next version.

The projections need to be recalibrated after every round.  So this version will only last for a week, then a new version will be provided next week.  The new version will do calculations for past rounds, so you can delete the old version.

The file is an Excel 2007 spreadsheet.  I am not sure how widespread a recent version of excel is in the DT community.  If you can’t use it, can you suggest other formats that might be suitable.

Again post here or I’m on twitter @NixTrader if you want to send a message directly.

Nix

Disclaimer: this tool is a guide only, you are responsible for your own use of the ‘T’ button.

DOWNLOAD: Nix DreamTrader R15.xlsx

67 Comments

  • Can’t view spreadsheet on my iPhone but look forward to havin a look when I get home!

    Meanwhile….tough decision to make here:

    5 trades remaining, only one more upgrade to go: Jon giles(2nd ruck). Have Cox as no. 1.

    I can only afford Hille, Kreuzer, Mumford and other similar 2nd tier ruckmen at similar price if direct swap.

    So do I:
    A) go one of these guys and have 4 trades left for LTIs, and if so which ruckman?
    or
    B) double trade, bring in a premium Maric or similar and leave myself 3 trades?

    Tough one. Help!

  • Does anyone think the Crows will rest Thompson, danger or tippet against GWS or
    Will they hope to get a big percentage like the Hawks did and play their stars.

    • Tippet will definitely be rested. Look for either Jacobs, Thompson or Paddy as being rested too, or if played, will be subbed early providing Crows are comfortably ahead

      • Yep, agree with above. Tippett will be 90% rested and may have been ruled out anyway after his concussion.

        As for Thommo and the others, I don’t think they’ll be rested. They still have games against Melbourne and GC in rounds 22 and 23 respectively.

      • quite feasible that one or two on ballers may be rested. Doubt that Jacobs will be rested though, teams don’t like to rest the big trundlers unless they are carrying an injury.

        • Thompson would sooner die than be rested. He has brownlow hopes this year. Anyone with the slightest niggle will be rested but I saw Sando speak a fortnight ago and he reflected on how poor we were against GWS last time and thinks we should give them a proper thumping this round. Look out for some big numbers coming from Danger, Thommo and Jacobs!

  • Not sure why you would put this spreadsheet together when the FFGenie is free and pulls the information automatically. To be honest, some of the calculations in your ‘decision maker’ are a bit arbitrary and debatable.

    • Thanks for the feedback,

      FFGenie doesn’t allow you to do future projections based on your own view of future scores .. in Genie everything is based on a player’s existing average (which might be significantly effected by a few high or low scores).
      For example no one would have traded in Carrazzo based on his FFGenie projections.

      As to the decision maker … some things are debatable, some things aren’t. I don’t think anything is arbitrary unless you mean factors that don’t appear to be considered at all.

      I’d be interested in examples of where you think the decision maker is wrong so I can look at making improvements.

      Thanks again for the feedback.

      • FFgenie doesn’t do projections, but it is exactly the information needed. Any DTer with half a brain isn’t pulling up Carrazzo in the genie last week and making a determination on just his average. It provides every weeks score, so even the most inexperienced DTer can see the outliers that make up the average and draw their own conclusions. The BE and expected price change based on their ave allows a comparison for whether you think the player will score more or not. You’re trying to reinvent the wheel here, except its more cumbersome…it’s like a square wheel.

  • Wow, thanks Nix. Looks like some hard work has been put in to create this spreadsheet. Very much appreciated.

    I think this will be very useful but as Nix mentions a number of times, will only be a guide. Personally, I’ll be using it often but one flaw is that from first glance it seems to rely heavily on the players’ average. This gives a bit of skewed result if you are trading in a fallen premium such as Goodes.

    Anyway, great spreadsheet and I love the little messages at the end haha

    • Thanks for feedback,

      Look again at the line that is shaded darker green. You can put in your own score expectation for either a fallen premo (Goodes, Carrazzo) or a rookie that has hit the wall (Magner, Giles, Horsley) to override the average.

  • Sick of teams being announced and players
    Listed only to be withdrawn hour before game. Hope thommo plays as going be my
    Capt

    Going to go nuts.

  • Marley Williams out for year gee whizzzz

    • tell me about it… i flipped a coin to downgrade to williams or elliot… unfortunately i got williams… never will flip a coin again…

  • Interesting spreadsheet. Thanks for your work.

    Hi guys. I have a lot of indecision and was hoping for some thoughts…

    Do I
    1. Downgrade zaha (to a mid/fwd or straight mid) and leave zorko as F7 but miss the goodes train. Then use the cash later in the year to upgrade Clarke and Barlow come finals. Leaves 3 trades.

    Or 2. Sideways zaha to goodes leaving zorko as M7/F8. This scenario means I’ll need to trade porps or zorko come finals to generate cash for last 2 upgrades come finals.

    Both these scenarios mean holding onto to waters.

    D: God, carrots, Scotland, Birchell, lids, waters, clarke (darley, s shaw)
    M: swan, pendles, GAJ, Boyd, Thommo, Barlow (zorko, Gibson)
    R: mummy, Ryder (Campbell, redden)
    F: Franklin, robbo, Sidey, beams, Martin, ZAHA, chappy (porps, hall)

    Any thoughts much appreciated. Cheers. :)

    • not sure holding on to waters is the way to go… i would more then likely trade him for carrots or suckling..

      least that way you make around 50k… then you have 3 trades to do as you wish for finals…

      • I agree to a certain extent….but I heard Zaha is now out for the season (SEN late last night) so he has to go. Then if I go Waters-Suckling (have carrots) I then only have 2 trades left with Marty Clarke still on the field and Barlow to upgrade come finals…this is why DT frustrates me! Best laid plans….have had a bastard of a year re LTI. Thanks for your input.

  • hi nix,

    great tool, thanks for that. I find anythinkg like this interesting, only adds to Asst Coach and FFGenie if you ask me.

    A suggestion for the next version may be the ability to save a scenario that you’ve just created so you can create multiple scenarios and then compare at the end. I’m finding that I’m saving screen shots of each scenario so i can then review all my options easily.

    Thanks again!!

    El Nacho

    • Thanks for feedback Nacho,

      Yeah I was resorting to screen clipping myself during testing.

      Originally this was planned to be an online popup calculator so it was limited in scope. For example it couldn’t be wider than about 680px for a wordpress blog, plus functionality was restricted. It’s only in the last few days I decided to move to a downloadable version with updates.

      Now it is a downloadable spreadsheet a lot more options are available. In terms of looking at different scenarios, instead of saving images of one box, it is probably better to put the instructions on a separate tab, and make a few separate trade boxes to the right so you can pan across and look at several different live trade scenarios at the same time, and adjust them all independently.

      Something should be doable for the next version. The main issue will be checking to make sure all the box formulas are working independently and not still picking up the back-end of the first box by mistake.

  • Just had a look at my trades history and an astonishing 8 of my trades were “forced trades” where I needed to replace a long term injured player. No wonder this years been so tough for many!

    ROUND 4 Shaw out, houli in
    ROUND 5 Ablett out, swan in
    ROUND 7 Goodes out, dangerfield in
    ROUND 8 Waite out, dickson in
    ROUND 9 Murphy out, zorko in
    ROUND 11 Hmac out, hall in
    ROUND 12 zaha out, robinson in
    ROUND 15 simpson out, goodes in

    F@#$ing unreal!!! Can anyone top that?

    • Yeah I did the exact same In round 4 of shaw to Houli. I have held Houli and has got 70’s every week and finally got the ton last week! Thanks Bachar!!!! Hopefully he can keep it up!

      • yeah houli’s dudded up my team real good. FINALLY posted a decent score last week!

    • haha i had 8 aswell

    • Broughton out Birchall in
      Fyfe out Sidebottom in
      Shaw out Conca in (fmdt)
      Kennedy out Treloar in
      C.Smith out Hayes in
      Ablett out Murphy in (fmdt)
      Goodes out Beams in
      Murphy out J.Selwood in
      Stanley out Zorko in
      Pendlebury out Cotchin in
      Waters out Suckling in (this week)

      Fair to say it’s been a rough year..

      • and they’re forced trades, at the same time i’ve had to try make my team better!

  • Yep!

    Round 3 – Shaw Out
    Round 4 – Christian Howard Out, Mumford Out
    Round 6 – Fyfe Out, Ablett Out
    Round 7 – Goodes Out
    Round 10 – HMAC Out
    Round 12 – Pendles Out
    Round 16 – Waters Out

    In hindsight wouldnt have traded out GAJ, although it did allow me to complete my FWD line pretty early.

    Been a very testing year… i think the only changes i would make next year though are 3 players on the bench instead of 2, just for extra cover. 24 trades is plenty.

    • Forced trades? Keep telling yourself that.

      Shaw out for two weeks
      Ablett out for two weeks
      Swan out for two weeks

      3 trades that did not need to happen. You may have finished your FWD line getting rid of Gaz, but i bet you wish you had the trade now.

      • neither crutton or I ever traded out swan, so its 2 questionable trades not 3. Gaz was a line ball call and in hindsight both ended up being uneccesary trades but at the time neither looked like only being a 2 week injury. By the way are you sure Shaw (haha) was only out for 2? Seems like longer from memory.
        Bottom line is no one has a crystal ball and I’ve seen far worse trades than those 2. Last year I had some horror trades I won’t even mention for prides sake.

        • Fair enough.

          Yeah, Shaw was out for two but before that had pumped out a 56 a 66 and an 81 which made people justify their trade. Came back with 111, 113 then 115

          • Heath Shaw missed 2 (rounds 4 and 5), then missed another 2 in Rounds 10 and 11, after he had been stinking it up rounds 1-3, with an injured calf (historically a tough injury to manage). I think trading him out was extremely justified at the time. He pumped out 3 big tons, then went back to stinking it up again. At least i’ve had Mr Consistent Greg Broughton to help me out along the way!

  • Should i hold Waters with 3 trades, or should i trade waters to M.johnson/heppel/enright and Giles to Jacobs ( BE of 42)?

    • i have 3 trades also…

      i will be doing waters – carrots/suckling this week… leaving me with 2 for finals…

      i am very tempted to go waters – suckling / dickson – goodes

      but not keen on having just 1 trade and 5k in bank…

  • What do you think of my trades this week:
    A) a.walker–> goodes
    &
    B) walsh–> j.murdoch.
    I know the second one is a bit sideways but it lets ne finish my forwards with bench cover and gives ne a cash cow near the end of the year which is pretty rare.

  • A bit of food for thought…. No one has considered nic nat as a cheap ruck. Less than 400,000, same average as Jacobs, had that massive hundred, so a higher ceiling, and a lowest score of 67, so pretty consistent.

    He could make a good point of difference if your strapped for cash. He might have a couple blinders in your finals…

    I want cox or maric so I probably won’t, but I figure if people are considering Jacobs why not nic nat?

  • Have gone Waters to Hanley and Franklin to Robinson

    It doesn’t feel right sideways trading twice, it really doesn’t but having 8 trades is it a good decision to try and get points up on the rest of the comp who are holding on to these guys?

    The thing that made me decide on sideways trading Franklin is the fact there are 8 rounds left, so 3 games is almost half that. Also with pendles injury becoming longer and longer I don’t want to go through that with franklin at this time of the year. Franklin always seems to get injured or suspended anyway, a factor which may keep him out of my team next year.

    A bonus out of this I have 111,000 to upgrade Giles in the following weeks if he keeps underperforming.

    Thoughts?

    • I feel jelly of you because i had to trade in two players that were going to rise in price, i would have rathered to get rid of giles once and for all but had to make other decisions, i hope for his sake that he can get ovee his BE which is like 77 or something like that

  • DEF: Lake, Mackie, Davis, Carazzo, Scotland, Morris, Ellis (Schoenmakers, Wilkes)

    MID: Watson, Thompson, S. Selwood, Deledio, Ablett, Boyd (Gibson, Crozier)

    RUC: Cox, Giles (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Sidebottom, Dangerfield, Beams, Cloke, McGlynn, Zorko, Pfeiffer (Franklin, Kennedy)

    4 trades left with 80k in the bank.

    Next week I want to downgrade Redden > another cheap rookie ruckman freeing up some cash. Then the week after upgrade another one of my defenders to another gun, not sure who though?

  • This week thinking bout trading Hall to Murdoch(although worried about security in the line up) and Horsely to Cotchin.
    This leaves me with 2 trades.
    I was then thinking going M.Clarke to someone who is around 390k probably Adcock.
    Any thoughts?

  • Anyone else keeping Buddy on the field cause they can’t bring themselves to call up that spud from Richmond (Martin)?
    P.s. Have to cop a donut in the fwd line (no way around it).

  • Hmm. Let’s see.

    I had GAJ, Goodes, Fyfe, Pendles, Mumford. Shaw and now Waters out. So a similar amount of premos to some of the lists being touted above.

    Out of all of those, I traded only Goodes and Fyfe out. In hindsight, maybe I should have traded out Pendlebury too, but I consider holding onto Mumford and GAJ and saving those trades among my better pieces of business.

    As a result, still have six trades left and only one real weakness (my D7, Marty Clarke) and pretty solid cover (except A. Hall, but I have DPP cover too). Could be even better if Goodes didn’t gun it out last weekend quite like he did, and I wasn’t 5k short on bringing him back, taking a gamble on Yarran over Clarke for D7 and would mean D. Martin as cover for forwards and mid.

    Coming up agonisingly short like this on what I feel is a golden opportunity is what sh!ts me about DT sometimes!

  • DEF: deledio, suckling, waters, broughton, heppel, goddard, carrazzo, morris, shaw

    MID: boyd, thompson, ablett, ebert, gibbs, priddis, magner, gibson

    RUC: jacobs, giles, stephenson, redden

    FWD: sidebottom, franklin, dangerfield, martin, pearce, porps, dickson, patton, kennedy

    i have 5 trades left and 34,300 in the bank

    should i save my trades, get rid of giles for kreuzer or should i look for a trade in my unfinished forward line

  • need a second ruck, i have already got Maric and my second ruck needs to be below $417,000 so who should i get???

    • jacobs

      • cheers mate, out of mcevoy and jacobs who would you choose??
        Or should i wait a couple of weeks for Hmac??

        • get jacobs…

          hmac wont score as well as he did before his injury as brad scott said he will be in the fwd line

      • thanks mate i decided to go minson cos it will be a good POD

        • you guys convinced me and i think i will go jacobs instead of Mison and Hmac and Mcevoy…….
          CHEERS:)

  • going to have to cop a donut in the backline this week, no way around it!!11 :(

  • What is best combination of RUCK/ M6 /F7 (F8):

    1. Maric / Mitchell / D Martin (Treloar) +4 trades

    2. McEvoy / Mitchell / Goodes (D Martin) +3 trades

    3. McEvoy / Murphy / D Martin (Treloar) +5 trades

    • number 2 i recon.
      Mitchell is really good and gets less injuries than murphy, Mcevoy although not as good as Maric is still a good ruckman (seeing as he is mostly on his own then that means he can score more) and goodes is at a really good value and will NEVER be this cheap again and is a good premo.
      the downside in all of that is you only have three trades left.

      Hope this helps.

  • Two trades left.
    Bench Hargrace, Darley
    Barlow, McIntyre
    Redden, Campbell
    Dusty, Couch
    Thoughts on upgrading Redden to Maric which puts Giles on the bench. Leaves only one trade but solid cover on all positions.

  • Have only 2 trades left and 71k and need to trade out simpson. I have goddard, buddy and martin on the pine (like everyone else!). My rucks are weak as, giles kreuzer (stephenson, some nonamer).

    Should I….

    A) trade simpson to goodes and leave myself one trade
    B) simpson to goodes and dickson to nvoldt (providing me good cover in fwds while buddys injured)
    C) simpson to goodes and giles to jacobs
    D) something else

    Highly risky I know using my final trade BUT giles has hit a brick wall in his first long season and if I trade in nvoldt I’ll have an extra forward premo dpp when buddy comes back. Is it worth leaking valuable points each week in 5 highly compeditive leagues to hold onto 1 emergency trade? Surely I CAN’T cop another long term injury!

  • So, I don’t know if I’m suffering some type of dream team crazy…but i’m thinking of dumping buddy.

    here is my team..

    PLEASE TELL ME WHAT U THINK.

    I have only two trades left and usually I would no way be using them but I’m sitting pretty in my leagues and Im thinking of taking the risk.

    colourcoded sanity

    Round Score: 2,153

    DEF: B Deledio (105), G Broughton (59), G Birchall (103), J Grimes (75), C Enright (101), T Bugg (59), A Carrazzo (114), B Goddard (0), R Hargrave (0)

    MID: M Boyd (133), D Swan (105), G Ablett (104), L Hayes (83), R Sloane (92), M Barlow (95), M Williams (34), S Gibson (79)

    RUCK: D Cox (148), J Giles (48), J Redden (0), T Campbell (38)

    FWD: S Sidebottom (94), D Beams (78), M Robinson (109), M Pavlich (144), P Dangerfield (89), J Porplyzia (74), D Zorko (140), L Franklin (72), D Martin (0)

    I was thinking of bringing in either murdoch, mcintyre or bagley, but I always seem to need one extra trade to make it perfect. Since buddys injury I am considering….

    BUDDY- out for GOODES
    and then
    MARLEY WILLIAMS out for murphy

    leaving me batting deep on my benches but with no dpp link.

    What do u think? Am I crazy, or do it.???

  • OUT Franklin ($511,500) IN Carrazzo ($409,000) 0 trades left..still may reverse the Franklin part!
    OUT Waters ($450,000) IN Pavlich ($464,000)
    ROUND 14
    OUT Porplyzia ($320,100) IN Selwood ($451,300) Good
    OUT Giles ($341,100) IN Maric ($485,500) So far so good!
    ROUND 13
    OUT Horsley ($293,400) IN Beams ($527,100) Good!
    OUT Milera ($258,900) IN Crozier ($98,700) Needed the cash! F9
    OUT Morris ($245,300) IN Whiley ($104,200) Needed the cash! D9
    ROUND 12
    OUT Magner ($285,900) IN Priddis ($388,600) Good
    OUT Smedts ($186,300) IN Gibson ($85,800) Im Happy so far
    OUT Spurr ($138,500) IN Shaw ($104,200) Not much cash but good cover.
    ROUND 11
    OUT Pendlebury ($502,500) IN Johnson ($414,300) Didnt wanna hold that long and cant complain with Johnson
    ROUND 9
    OUT Cameron ($213,300) IN Dangerfield ($446,600) Good
    OUT Greene ($354,800) IN Zorko ($104,200) Score!!
    ROUND 8
    OUT Bugg ($298,500) IN Spurr ($107,800) He needed to go…bad pick tho
    OUT Ellis ($211,900) IN Waters ($392,800) Good till now.
    ROUND 7
    OUT Hampton ($169,300) IN Horsley ($119,800) Hampton was giving me the shits.
    ROUND 6
    OUT Smith ($240,400) IN Sidebottom ($464,600) Good trade
    OUT Ablett ($592,900) IN Swan ($584,900) Atleast it was gun 4 gun! prob shouldnt of done it tho
    ROUND 5
    OUT Carrazzo ($409,200) IN Enright ($388,600) Forced
    OUT Kennedy ($198,500) IN Treloar ($104,200) Perfect timing
    ROUND 4
    OUT Fyfe ($450,000) IN Robinson ($459,800) Forced
    OUT Shaw ($414,800) IN Suckling ($441,300) Forced
    ROUND 3
    OUT Shiel ($104,200) IN Greene ($134,700) current form warrented it
    OUT Tomlinson ($143,700) IN Milera ($115,800) bad selection at the start!

    Atm overall ranking 3,513..prob going to drop like a brick tho with a couple more injuries!