‘Par’ – Round 11

Last week the ‘Par’ score for round 11 was 1509 pts. This is based on the scores from the teams who are ranked in the top 5k overall and averaged out. We thought this gives the best indication of the ‘better’ teams so we can all gage our weekly efforts based on theirs. We think this number is about right… therfore ‘par’ for each round and will be posted here in DT TALK shortly after each round (thanks to Virtual Sports). There’s no point averaging the top 25k or everyone in the competition as some of these guys would probably forget to do their teams. So the top 5k average is the mark.

61 Comments

  • Only just made par, tough week.

  • Oh yeah… finally a definitive answer to big v’s question each week

    • Big game this week. 3 doughnuts and GAJ as captain….might be cursed by Calvin on Boyd.

  • yiew.. made it by 5 points.. I got 1514 :/

  • 1455 for meez

  • 1563 with 6 donuts

  • I would be interested to know of the teams in the top 5k (im 1877) whether they are expecting similar scores across the 3 bye rounds, maybe a touch higher due to the unforseen scores this week.

    This round was pretty catastrophic with terrible scores from big names and lots of players out through injury (shaw, pendles etc), i got 1637 with 19 this week and would expect about the same the next 2 weeks as i play with 19 and 20 for rds 12 and 13.

    But i think the quality of players out this week is much higher than last week, im missing stanton, selwood, pendles, chapman, sidebottom, shaw, broughton

    what do you guys think will be the trend over the next 2 weeks?

    • I’m 1596, got 1717 last week. I have 7 donuts this week so I’ll be dropping quite a bit, round 13 I have near a full team though.

    • some big outs but i got;
      broughton, enright, watson, selwood, pendels, waters, sandi, pavlich, stevie j, didak, sidebottom

      ill be lucky for 1000 this week

      • yeah i got 1796 last week but this week all my good players are out so would probaby expect my score to be a fair bit lower this round.. got lucky with captain choice as well which possibly alot of the highscorers did as well.. captain choice is going to be critical in these mbrs. went from 1600 to 303 so hopefully i can stay up there though!

        • yeah i only had 3 0’s last week but chuck in johnson, gaz (c) enright, krooze, suckling, goddard, and then my 5 rookies or so scored 60 or less. and chuck in sandi and didak.
          i am making trades this week that doenst really eliminate donuts but will boost my team post mbr’s

          sandi, didak and krooze
          to
          goldstein, gibson and campbell.

          next week i can then go
          old mac, hall/morris, treloar
          to
          swan, beams and cloke

  • for those wondering… the 5k is from after the round I think.
    Wouldn’t matter a great deal either way

    • Calvin any reason why we play head 2 heads during the bye rounds? Why didn’t we start round 1 – 3 and not play during the byes.Virtual Sports stuffed that one up big time

      • Because we played in Round 3 (only two weeks off at the start)… so many people have asked this, but the maths doesn’t work out! Think!

        • We coulda played one of the bye weeks but all 3 is just stupid. A guy in my league is ranked in the top 1000 and he scored 800 this week.

          That’s just plain ridiculous

          • So how do you choose which of the MBRs we play in? Also, VS won’t have 3 weeks in a row with no league games!

        • The three MBRs could have been combined into one “mega round” against a single opponent.

          • This could only have worked if each team played once in the MBRs but they play twice so again this wouldnt work…

  • 1475 carrying Pendles and Spurr along with a couple 0’s

  • Hey Calvin,

    This is a good idea but I suggest a slightly different methodology.

    If you are taking the top weekly 5000 scores this will include teams ranked quite low overall (perhaps >100k overall particularly in bye rounds), plus new teams that appear weekly (2,500 new ones last round) presumably chasing a weekly prize.

    If a lot of these teams aren’t really a threat overall, so should we care what they scored?

    What I look at is what score you needed to stay in your current overall position.
    For example (for round 11) if you were:
    – ranked 1,000 you needed to score 1496 to stay ranked 1,000
    – ranked 3,000 you needed to score 1449 to stay ranked 3,000
    – ranked 5,000 you needed to score 1423 to stay ranked 5,000
    – ranked 10,000 you needed to score 1390 to stay ranked 10,000.

    So for the people around these levels these scores might be a closer to what they consider to be “par” for them.

    Just a suggestion

    • I think its the top 5000 teams overall..not weekly.

      But yeah showing what you needed to get to stay in that position is a great idea that wouldn’t be too hard to find out.

      • Even to stay at 1,500 level overall you didn’t need to score more than 1468.

        I can’t see how the top 5000 people overall could have averaged 1509. If they did the maintaining level scores would be much higher.

        It’s gotta be weekly.

        • This is overall top 5000, as explained.

          • Par calculated by this method does NOT equal a score to maintain your position in the top 5000. That’s just simple maths.

            1. If it is at round end it will be a little out against the maintaining scores. Simply because those teams who came in to the top 5000 obviously scored better than those who dropped out of the top 5000.

            2. It is an overall averege. possibly a bracket of players ranked (for example) 2000-2300 averaged higher than the overall for the top 5000 so if you were ranked in that bracket at the start of the round then you needed a higher score to maintain. Same applies that maybe guys ranked 1500 -1700 average a lot lower on the whole….

            Take this PAR for what it is, a rough guide of what was a PAR score for the round. Just like in golf par might not win (maintain position) if the blokes you are up against got birdies….

  • 1720 bitches

  • scored 1720 with 4 donuts
    should score similar this round

    • 1720 this week will see you get pulverized

      • I respectfully disagree. Think of all of the premos that will be missing from people’s sides this week: Swan, Pendles, Watson, Stanton, Selwood, Barlow, Beams, Sidey, Chappy, Stevie J, Heppell, Broughton, Waters (susp), Sandi and Zaha (injured), just to name some of the more popular ones. Last week there were far fewer premos missing: Boyd, Thommo, Danger, Pendles and Waters, then the list drops off significantly. I reckon par might be around 1700.

        • Yeah, “pulverized” was a bit OTT, but from facing five donuts last week to no donuts expected this week, I’m confident that par will be up a couple of hundred points at least. Two premo/near premo rucks return, and I think that the GWS kids will do okay against Richmond. GAJ will surely bounce back to score near his average. Yes, Swan/Stanton/Selwood go out from the mids, but back in comes Boyd, Rockliff, Priddis etc. I agree that the missing FWD premos will leave a hole, but in comes Danger and hopefully Zorko can go 90+ again. All in alll, I see a lot of upside this week, and am expecting it to be my best round of the MBRs. Good luck to you this week mate.

  • This article is depressing me, I scored 1195. My overall went from 842 down to 3145. Hopefully I am above par for the next two rounds.

    • wow thats a big drop at this time of the year when you only scored a couple of 100 points below par. Guess it shows how close everyone is.

    • I think I had 7 donuts which didn’t help.
      Only 3 donuts this week, hopefully. Should jump back up the rankings.

  • 1435 for me with 5 donuts and GAJ captain. So that’s a quadruple triple quadruple double bogey then. Not great.

    Hopefully just 3 donuts this week and a better captain selection and Ill be back on track.

  • I’ve often wondered about this and particularly when a lot of people like to guess during the round. Although I’ve noticed that mostly, those guesses seem be about or within 100pts below the guesser’s predicted score…

    I was predicted to score 2009 last week and ended up with 1765 and a very healthy boost in the rankings. This week, I’m predicted to land something close to 1,950 but guessing it’ll be around the same as last week by the time that Horse doesn’t play, Rocky underperforms and someone else is a surprise omission. Par? Probably about 100 points less than that ;-)

    • But that’s where you think ‘par’ is related to your own team and the assistant coach figures… it is actually more about finding a number to see how close you are to the mark (like in golf, where the term comes from).

      The way this is set up is great. Top 5000 overall teams and their average score. Arguably, most people here would be a ‘top 5000’ coach (or have the ability to be so with some luck)… so comparing yourself to that works well. When people ask ‘what is par’ all of the time on Twitter, it is hard to say… if you’re in top 100 and wanting to stay there, then it is going to be a shitload more than this. Using the average of the top 5000 gives you a guide on where you should be and what you need to do to be gaining ground on others. Sure, people would have dropped with a score over the 1509, but it would have been a small group.

      • Oh, absolutely. I’m liking the concept Warnie, all good and didn’t mean to suggest otherwise. Think we’re on the same page with this one, mate, I like the method and it makes good sense to me.

      • These are the scores you needed to stay at various levels in top 5000.

        1 1,683
        50 1,588
        100 1,572
        200 1,557
        300 1,536
        500 1,514
        750 1,502
        1,000 1,496
        1,500 1,478
        2,000 1,468
        3,000 1,449
        4,000 1,438
        5,000 1,423

        So a score of 1509 would have maintained your current position if you were ranked around 625. Most of the lower 4000 people in the top 5000 would have been a bit happy with a score of 1509 and moved up the rankings if they got it.

        I think taking an arithmetic average of the top 5000 is always going to be skewed towards the top end by very high scores in the top 300, rather than some other measure such as a median.

        Anyway if’s still good that you are going to provide a par ‘number’. It’s also good for people to know its limitations. We don’t want people slitting their risks because they can never get this ‘par’.

        • * wrists (not risks) … LOL

          Also the median score for top 5,000 would have been about 1458 this week.

  • Only have 1 donut this week looking for 1950+ to boost up rankings

  • I missed par by about 30 points and dropped about 30 in the rankings down to 2300th :(, seems about right to me.

    When are going to see our eliminator matchups? I’m only looking at 1 donut this week but a LOT of GWS rooks on the ground. I may make a move if my opponent looks stronger. League is no issue, should win that in a canter….

    • Yes, keen to see eliminator matchups… a little worried about mine already this week and haven’t even seen who I’m up against.

      Hey Warnie, while you’re around – would it be worth having an eliminator thread? There’s only about 4,000-odd teams left in it I think and surely a large number of those frequent this site. Could be a good place to name your opponent and talk trash, as there’s no way to do this in the game itself?

  • Looking at the par score I think I had a triple bogey this week.

    Hey Calvin, I think gage might have a u in it somewhere.

  • Scored 1765 last week

    One donut this week

    Keep in mind I am trading ridiculously and will only have 4trades left after this

    One donut next week as well

  • great stuff, really like the sample size.

  • I think I may have had the lowest score of all DTers that are still actually paying attention to their teams?

    Try a mighty 1,257 on for size.

    Ho ho at my decision to bring in Didak last week for Christensen, thats a couple weeks after mucking up and bringing in Shaw (after I got rid of him earlier in the season), which in turn was a couple weeks after bringing in Heppel.

    Oh and of course I brought in Ablett as well AND made him captain.

  • DEF: deledio, goddard, suckling, waters, hargrave, morris, smedts, broughton, heppel

    MID: boyd, ebert, ablett, gibbs, shiel, horsely, magner, smith

    RUCK: giles, redden, stephenson, hmac

    FWD: franklin, dangers, martin, porps, a.kennedy, dickson, hall, sidebottom, pearce

    i have 12 trades left and 49k, what trades should i do, am looking at smedts to s,shaw and then horse to rocky
    any better options

  • Guys guys guys – take it for what it is… a rough guide.
    Nothing more nothing less. Its the average of the top overall ranked teams in the top 5k.
    Over thinking it guys. If you think it’s not a good prediction on ‘par’ then that’s your call.

  • Just realised with Thursday lockout, Warnedawg gets lucky again! Only has to wear vest for 2 days!

  • damn didn’t make the Par :(

  • Not 1 team made par in my league lol

  • Thanks heaps, I think it’s a useful bit of stat and will be interesting over the next coupleof weeks.

    The amazing thing to me is the rate of movement up and down the rankings so far into the season. My 1526 was good enough to propel me from 6200 odd to 4400 odd. If things go well over the next couple and I only get one more donut (three last week), I’m wondering how high I can be by the end of the MBRs.

  • Interesting that 1509 is the par score, i got 1510 and my opponent got 1509. didn’t think i would get over par with that

  • I’ve missed out on the top 1000 for the week by 100 twice this year. Spewing.

  • WTF 1 got 1306 and moved up a couple of thousand spots

  • I influence par! :D Loving the concept, at least until I have a bad one and score 200 below par.

  • I would like the guys to give a projected par each week on DT TALK.

    Could be a good lttle segment i reckon!