The Numbers – Round 9: The Lottery Challenge

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. I’ve decided to go about the numbers a different way this week. Instead of choosing 10 numbers based on specific stats and events that have happened over the weekend, I’ve turned to Saturday Night’s Powerball Lottery to challenge myself to do it the other way around, finding events and statistics from the weekend’s games based on 8 numbers not of my choosing. Whilst there were 8 lucky winners (who pocketed a cool $539k) on Saturday night, there were many more winners in the world of DT as a new breed of midfielders dominated processions.

So based on the winning powerballs, I give you this week’s numbers.

10 – Players who scored more than 130 points in Round 9. Whilst there were some regular high scorers in the mould of Stevie J, Deledio and Chappy in there; coaches of Matt Rosa, Mitch Robinson and Jack Riewoldt would be equally happy with their huge scores in a fairly low scoring round. It’s worth noting that 3 of those 10 players were Tigers players following their huge win over the Hawks at the weekend.

13 – Length (cm) of Bulldogs flyer Zeph Skinner’s rat tail. Whilst the Friday Night crowd lifted for every one of his 3 touches, it was the questionable statement at the back of his head that caught people’s attention. Personally – I’m not a fan. But to each their own…

22 – I had to find room for a mention of him in here; for Collingwood’s #22 Steele Sidebottom continues to go from strength to strength in 2012 as he tallied another 135 DT points for his jubilant owners on Saturday. Initially only stated for a 90-95 avg, with his scoring only really extending to regular 90’s; Sidey has added high scoring to his consistency to create a potent combination resulting in some huge scores. With back to back to back 30d + games, he is turning into a superstar in the absence of Ball and now, Swan.

36 – Possessions by Dayne ‘Mini-Swan’ Beams against Adelaide on the weekend. Now with 5 consecutive scores of 100, including 4 over 120; Beamer is now beyond a must-have in DT this year. After starting slow in the first few rounds, he’s since gone ballistic; taking advantage of Luke Ball’s absence in the process. Costing around $518k nearing Round 10, he’s an expensive but worthy upgrade for your forward line.

37 – Expected price rise (in thousands) for GWS midfield/defender Sam Darley after R10. After a solid 64 on debut against the Lions in R8, Darley came on (after starting as the reptile) and smashed out a respectable 42 points. With a BE of -38, he gives us one of the only decent downgrade options on the bubble this week as we look to downgrade some of the maxed-out rookies prior to the MBR’s.

38 – Amount of coaches (seemingly) that failed to trade in Brisbane maestro Dayne Zorko last round. After plenty of talk through the week, many astute coaches moved on their spent cash cows to get in the stoutly built midfielder. For those that started him on ground, you would’ve been handsomely rewarded with another 90 + score.

Supps

28 – Disposals by North big man Todd Goldstein v Brisbane. In what is becoming an interesting battle for North’s ruck supremacy, Goldy continues to dominate in the absence of HMac. After being recalled following McIntosh’s injury, Todd didn’t let his team down – totalling 47 hitouts to go with his massive possession tally (for a ruckman). The safe thing to do as a DT coach regarding this matter? Stay away from both. It has become a Harry Potter-themed scenario, where ‘neither can live (in DT terms) whilst the other survives’.

42 – Seconds it took for Brisbane trainers to allay our fears about Tom Rockliff’s knee on Sunday. After going down with a stomach-turning hyperextension, my first thought was ‘poor kid, hope it’s not as bad as it looked’; with my second thought turning to ‘damn, now I’m gonna have to trade him out of my DT – how much did he cost again?’ Thankfully for Rocky (and his DT owners), he was miraculously up running again minutes later. Despite a lacklustre finish to the game, at least we won’t need to use up another trade for an LTI.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

Hats off to Teek coach, Kartheek as he smashed out the highest score of the round – that of 2,452. I must admit that I’m getting a little jealous seeing all of these coaches pumping out 2400+ scores, but that’s a rant for another day. Impressively, team Teek was the only team to do so in R8 – beating the next best team by over 60 points!

Deledio and Waters held the fort for him at the back, whilst his stacked midfield finally fired – with Boyd, Ebert, Hayes, Montagna, Barlow and Bartel all playing well. With Maric and Giles performing excellent in his ruck division, his DPP forward line (including a sure-fire NAB Rising Star performance from GWS young gun Adam Treloar) all played well to assure him of the weekly prize. Let me just say – when Buddy Franklin is your lowest scorer in the forwards with 97, you know you’re onto something special. Lucky bugger!

Also – special mention to Carnablues coach, Tim who held onto his #1 ranking and now leads the competition by 90 points.

Whore of the Week

After his second massive score of 2012, he simply couldn’t be ignored here. Geelong star Steve Johnson was absolutely everywhere on Friday night as he tallied a career-high 36 touches and 14 marks to finish on 148 points. Seemingly floating around the ground gathering possessions at will – Stevie J put on an uncharacteristic, yet impressively rounded performance that did not included a single goal. Starting to really hit his straps now, Johnson sits behind only Sidebottom, Robinson and Chapman for points scored (by a forward) in 2012.

One step forward and two steps back

No this isn’t the description Nick Riewoldt’s new run-up for goal; this is a metaphor for the game of a promising Irish rookie not to be named *cough cough* *Tommy Walsh*. After tallying a singular kick against his previous club, he gave away two free kicks to bring his grand total to -3 DT points in only his second game in the red and white. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets another game, after he was subbed off in the third quarter. Walsh now becomes the 2nd Swan to finish in the negatives in 2012, after fellow DT spud Andrejs Everitt managed the feat a few weeks back.

The Round Up

Highlights – Lids, Robbo, Sidey and Beams for making my life as a DT coach that much easier; Giles for leading the way in the ruck yet again; Gibbs for finally coming to the party in 2012 tallying a drought-breaking 111; and Carlton (unconvincingly) breaking away on Sunday to hand Melbourne a morale-shattering 58 point loss.

Lowlights – Sub-par efforts from Hargrave, Danger and Jacobs; as well as the Horse for temporarily forgetting how to tackle/mark on Saturday; finally Rockliff for a. scaring the DT world with a season-ending looking knee injury and b. for coming back on to then finish with only 76 points.

Team McRath – With the team now back on track after a month of sub-standard performances (much aligned with the Blues funnily enough); I’ll be looking to get more consistency across the board as I face some tough matchups in my league this week. With a lack of downgrade options at the moment, I’m faced with holding my trades for now with the MBR’s only a week away.

Much like the AFL, the competition is getting more even by the week – with a 2100 score still not enough to get you inside the top 10,000 scorers in Round 9. As we turn our attention to the final full round of football for almost a month – how are you faring? Are you set for the byes? Are you carrying injuries? How many upgrades have you got left? Let us know below in the comments below.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT

171 Comments

  • Giles to Maric?? Removes a donut in rnd 11

    Worth it??

  • Everyone should have him but still, I reckon we can bank on Big O to play rnd 11!

    http://m.afl.com.au/news.htm?action=handleNewsArticleById&id=137158&listRetrievedBy=COMPETITION&listId=1

  • Whos JS is Better Sexton or Darley?

  • Any one thought of Downgrading Bugg to Puopolo

  • Really need to bring in ‘The Sex’ but not sure about his JS…..

  • Does anyone know how much longer Hmac will be out for?

  • As always, great read McRath! I’m up against main rival this week and need feedback on how my teams looking.

    My current team

    DEF: Lids, Scotland, Waters, Goddard, Suckling, Heppell, Hargrave (Ellis, Spurr)

    MIDS: Pendles, Hayes, Rocky, Ablett, Barlow, Horse (Shiel, Zorko)

    RUCKS: McIntosh, Giles (Big O, Redden)

    FWD: Sidebottom, Robbo, Johnson(S), Beams, Franklin, Dangerfield, Martin (Treloar, Smedts)

    65K in the bank and 12 trades remaining, why is everyone so keen on trading Hmac?

    Johnson for captain anyone? tempting..

    • 1. Deledio, B
      $528,700141
      MID117.56
      RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      2. Waters, B
      $426,900116
      96.22
      WCE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      3. Goddard, B
      $407,30090
      MID94.33
      STK GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      4. Duffield, P
      $365,40072
      79.11
      FRE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      5. Hargrave, R
      $352,20064
      82.25
      WBD GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      6. Birchall, G
      $396,60085
      87.57
      HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      7. Darley, S
      $104,20042
      53.00
      GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      23. Ellis, B
      $182,70049
      48.78
      RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
      24. Mohr, T
      $204,60032
      50.38
      GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
      m
      i
      d
      f
      i
      e
      l
      d
      8. Pendlebury, S
      $534,30088
      114.00
      COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAIN ACTIVATED”VICE CAPTAIN
      9. Rockliff, T
      $457,90076
      101.22
      BRL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      10. Mitchell, S
      $444,80089
      100.89
      HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      11. Selwood, J
      $498,200100
      108.38
      GEE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN ACTIVATED
      12. Horsley, K
      $314,00052
      95.80
      GCS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      13. McDonald, J
      $279,00072
      87.20
      GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      25. Swan, D
      $590,4000
      123.38
      COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
      26. Pfeiffer, D
      $192,00031
      FWD56.00
      PTA GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
      r
      u
      c
      k
      s
      14. Giles, J
      $357,90092
      85.56
      GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      15. Jacobs, S
      $368,00048
      80.67
      ADE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      27. Stephenson, O
      $196,00073
      62.25
      GEE GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
      28. Redden, J
      $149,4000
      60.33
      PTA GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
      f
      o
      r
      w
      a
      r
      d
      s
      16. Sidebottom, S
      $524,700135
      MID112.67
      COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      17. Robinson, M
      $451,900146
      MID103.11
      CAR GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      18. Beams, D
      $518,800132
      MID108.00
      COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      19. Franklin, L
      $439,30097
      96.00
      HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      20. Dangerfield, P
      $443,70067
      MID95.44
      ADE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      21. Martin, D
      $407,300104
      MID86.78
      RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      22. Zorko, D
      $163,10094
      MID72.00
      BRL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
      29. Kennedy, A
      $199,30024
      MID58.71
      GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
      30. Hall, A
      $164,4000
      55.50
      GCS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
      YOUR TEAM EDITING KEY & INFO

    • That’s an awesome looking side, I’d hold on to those trades for a while though with 12 left

  • 1. Deledio, B
    $528,700141
    MID117.56
    RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    2. Waters, B
    $426,900116
    96.22
    WCE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    3. Goddard, B
    $407,30090
    MID94.33
    STK GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    4. Duffield, P
    $365,40072
    79.11
    FRE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    5. Hargrave, R
    $352,20064
    82.25
    WBD GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    6. Birchall, G
    $396,60085
    87.57
    HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    7. Darley, S
    $104,20042
    53.00
    GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    23. Ellis, B
    $182,70049
    48.78
    RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
    24. Mohr, T
    $204,60032
    50.38
    GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
    m
    i
    d
    f
    i
    e
    l
    d
    8. Pendlebury, S
    $534,30088
    114.00
    COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAIN ACTIVATED”VICE CAPTAIN
    9. Rockliff, T
    $457,90076
    101.22
    BRL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    10. Mitchell, S
    $444,80089
    100.89
    HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    11. Selwood, J
    $498,200100
    108.38
    GEE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN ACTIVATED
    12. Horsley, K
    $314,00052
    95.80
    GCS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    13. McDonald, J
    $279,00072
    87.20
    GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    25. Swan, D
    $590,4000
    123.38
    COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
    26. Pfeiffer, D
    $192,00031
    FWD56.00
    PTA GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
    r
    u
    c
    k
    s
    14. Giles, J
    $357,90092
    85.56
    GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    15. Jacobs, S
    $368,00048
    80.67
    ADE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    27. Stephenson, O
    $196,00073
    62.25
    GEE GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
    28. Redden, J
    $149,4000
    60.33
    PTA GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
    f
    o
    r
    w
    a
    r
    d
    s
    16. Sidebottom, S
    $524,700135
    MID112.67
    COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    17. Robinson, M
    $451,900146
    MID103.11
    CAR GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    18. Beams, D
    $518,800132
    MID108.00
    COL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    19. Franklin, L
    $439,30097
    96.00
    HAW GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    20. Dangerfield, P
    $443,70067
    MID95.44
    ADE GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    21. Martin, D
    $407,300104
    MID86.78
    RIC GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    22. Zorko, D
    $163,10094
    MID72.00
    BRL GRAPHSUBSTITUTECAPTAINVICE CAPTAIN
    29. Kennedy, A
    $199,30024
    MID58.71
    GWS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES ACTIVATED
    30. Hall, A
    $164,4000
    55.50
    GCS GRAPHSUBSTITUTEEMERGENCIES
    YOUR TEAM EDITING KEY & INFO LOL MY TEAM

  • Great article McRath!

    How much premiums should we have now in our mids, fowards and backs..???? I have 5 in mids, 6 in fowards and 5 down at back not including hargrave..

  • Hey guys need some help

    My team is as follows and I’m not sure whether to upgrade the porpus
    To sidebottom or beams or danger

    Or do I upgrade Clarke to Scotland

    Deledio, waters, Goddard, Hargrave, Clarke, shaw birchall

    Boyd, pendles, Rockliff, Mitchell, ward, horsely,

    Giles and Keizer

    Robinson, chapman,Johnson, Franklin, zaharakis, Martin and porpus

    Really stuck on what to do any advice would be much appreciated

  • Just wondering if anyone thinks enright is worth a shot for 370k. Looking up upgrading bugg

  • Cheers McRath. My biggest number related concern is the tradeoff between generating more cash from downgrades versus downgrading the higher averaging player. For example my defense is currently (crap):

    Lids, Goddard, Broughton, Duffield, Clarke, Bugg, Ellis (Morris, Townsend). I have $170k in the bank and 15 trades. I’m thinking of bringing in Darley and Waters. If I trade out:

    1. Townsend and Morris leaves me $57,500 and Bugg (Ellis, Darley). Get rid of my 2 weakest players, can play Bugg on the field who is likely to score higher, solid bench cover. Make less money.
    2. Townsend and Bugg leaves me $100,200 and Ellis (Morris, Darley) Not good for byes, Ellis on field.
    3. Bugg and Morris leaves me $170,300 and Ellis (Darley, Townsend). Ellis on field, average cover, good coin.

    What do people think? I’m leaning towards option 1.

    • Option 1 mate….i know bugg has a high BE but i think he can still crack out better scores than ellis n that..even though im considering tradin bugg myself

  • Hey guys….

    Just need some help on which defender I should get from the round 11 bye?
    I wanna upgrade the bugg and i have plenty of cash in the bank…

    Im tossing up with…

    Waters
    Hanley
    Adcock

    Im thinking to myself ive missed the waters train and im just waiting for him to hit a brick wall or pick up an injury like he always does….

    Im thinking also that hanley could be a smokey and seems to get alot of the loose ball for the lions…

    Any suggestions would be great
    Cheers!!!

  • Great read mate!

    Numbers has become one of the must read articles for me every week.

    Congrats to Kartheek and Carnablues. Awesome efforts to win the week 60 points and to be the leader of the comp by 90 points. Great work to both coaches. Setting the bar high!!

  • Great work McRath. Were they your lucky numbers and win you the powerball??

    Dont know if anyone noticed but the good old trusty and reliable article “in the mix” has Christensen down for being a possible inclusion. As well as Hmac.

    Then seeing @RoyDT post something similar ‘ish’ about Christensen, could be good news round!!

    • Unfortunately MC they weren’t my lucky numbers… if they were I’d be doing the numbers from Europe or somewhere a lot more exotic!

      Hope the news on Bundy Christesen is true – need him back big time

  • Good read mate, always very amusing

    Stumped as to who I should trade out for Sam Darley;

    Tommy Bugg, Marty Clarke or Steven Morris, because they all have break-evens higher than their averages.

    Wondering if you could help?

    • Depends on your MBR Bye structure mate – I’d say Morris from that lot. Marty Clarke is a valuable D7/8 keeper and Bugg has the rare R11 bye. But if you have 2 R11 players already maybe do a Bugg>Darley otherwise you’ll likely cop a few donuts in that backline straight up

      • Yeah I’ve gone Darley in for Morris, also because I have an easy league game for round 11 and hard games for rounds 12 and 13. It’s just a shame there aren’t many premiums from the teams that have the bye in round 11 that I can trade in after the first bye round.

        Also, now that Tom Rockliff is just about as low as he is ever going to get and still averaging 100, and Sammy Mitchell will most likely drop to about $400 000 as he has a break-even of 135 as he sits on $444 000, what are your thoughts about bringing those two in as upgrades for maybe Magner and Shiel as those two sit on my bench and I have $317 000 still in the bank. (This means James McDonald and Horsely would be on my bench).

  • The rook game is a funny one.

    I’ve had a lot of the mid season downgrade target rooks from the start so just when I want to Down/Upgrade, the rook who I would be getting is already in my side.

    #Makesithard.

  • Lmao! gotta dig your imagination mcgrath! Love some of those stats dude, and as always a great read! I feel I’ve tripped over in a mirror shop this year. Started with murphy, gaz, goodes, shaw, waite, hmac, all who’ve had atleast multiple week injuries… got swan in for gaz (its just getting funny now I know) and have kept him thus far but my question is what to do with my team people? I’m down to only 11 trades and the sad reality I’m facing doing the maths is that at absolute best my teams going to end up full of holes. What advice can you offer fellow nolifers?
    thanks in advance

    B: Dids. goddard, houli, adcock, broughton, hargrave, clarke (ellis, mohr)
    M: Boyd, watson. swan, selwood, gibbs, horseley (mcdonald, kennedy)
    R: Hmac, kreuzer (giles, stephenson)
    F: Buddy, zaha, dangerfield, martin, pav, porps, zorko (dickson, hall)