Chook’s Rooks – Round 6

For some, the last half an hour before lockout can be a time devoid of any rational thought. Amid the scrambling for late injury news and the finalisation of Sunday’s teams, the pressure to snag the perfect premium and ditch the correct dud, and to click the right captain and elect the most excellent emergencies, can cause the indecisive Dream Team coach to lose the plot, drop their bundle or go completely out of their F%*KING MIND!

I know, because I’m one of the worst. Last round, I had the big “C” resting on Matthew Boyd’s shoulders all week. I started tossing around the idea of captaining one of my other premium mids – Scott Pendlebury or Scott Thompson – on Friday afternoon, but then threw all reason (and research) out the window about 10 minutes before lockout and clicked the “C” under Greg Broughton’s name. Five league losses later, a couple of cartons of egg on my face and it’s fair to say that didn’t work out too well for me.

Whether it’s picking a captain, selecting the right premium upgrade or the best rookie downgrade, or deciding whether to trade at all, the sensible solution that you arrived at during the week dissolves as the combination of Friday afternoon beers and the lockout countdown timer kick in.

This week, though, those of us who suffer from this truly debilitating condition can at least rest easy with the decision on whether to downgrade to Gold Coast midfielder Kyal Horsley or not. There’ll be no will you or won’t you. You will. The only reason you won’t is if you bucked tradition and drafted in the Suns rookie last week. Even then, you’re probably looking for a bug in the Virtual Sports programming that allows you to double dip and get him in a second time. He’s simply that good. Who to trade out? Well, that’s another issue entirely…

Three-or-more gamers

For me, it’s between Melbourne midfielder James Magner and Greater Western Sydney midfielder Dylan Shiel to make way for Horsley, a scenario facing the majority of DT coaches reading this I reckon, with Shiel’s teammate Stephen Coniglio another likely on the chopping block. All have easily attainable breakevens (Magner 17, Shiel 8 and Coniglio 20), and would normally be left in the paddock for another couple of weeks while their prices bulge that little bit more. But you can’t wait another week for Horsley, unless you want to pay $80,000-$100,000 more than everyone else, so someone has to go. Base the decision on average alone and Magner, scoring at 79 points per game, is the one you hold over Shiel or Coniglio, with 66ppg apiece. But, take out Coniglio’s sub-affected score of 46 in round five, and you’ll see that the two GWS boys have been steadily increasing their output (Coniglio has gone 53, 60, 73, 97, and Shiel has notched 36, 58, 74, 67, 81, 80), while Magner has waned, scoring 48, 64, 86, and 66 in his past four after opening the season with back-to-back hundreds. The discerning coaches will be taking the byes into account, of course, and this is where it comes down to the individual structure of each team. If you’re already packing a bunch of midfielders with the round 11 bye, like Boyd, Rocky or Thommo, as well as the GWS kids, then I’d be looking to move on Shiel or Cogs. But Magner (round 12 bye) must go if you were ballsy enough to start with both Swan and Pendles, with some Jelwood or Stants on the side. For the best downgrade information regarding the Horse this week, check out Tbetta’s Bullets article from Monday.

Elsewhere in the three-or-more game bracket, Port Adelaide mid-fwd Darren Pfeiffer made an inglorious start to what could be a short-lived career as a cash cow, scoring just 26 points. That was the culmination of what must’ve been a see-sawing ride for his near-40,000 owners. Low – Pfeiffer is named on an extended interchange for Port Adelaide on Thursday, sparking fears he may be dropped before his first price rise. High – Pfeiffer survives the cut when emergencies are named on Friday! Low – Pfeiffer is Reptiled, receiving the green vest for the Power’s game against Richmond on Sunday. High – an early injury gives Pfeiffer the chance to play plenty of game time! Low – Pfeiffer disposes of the ball eight out of nine times by hand in a putrid display of DTing.

Faring only marginally better were popular picks Adam Kennedy (40), Brandon Ellis (50) and Billie Smedts, although the latter’s 50 was a monumental improvement on his 4 the previous week. Even thus-far reliable ruck Jon Giles had a forgettable round, scoring a season-low 59 – which was the total ruck contribution for coaches with Orren Stephenson, Jarrad Redden and, say, Aaron Sandilands/Ben McEvoy/Shane Mumford. Vent with RL Griffin’s Open Letter to Ruckmen here. Ellis and fellow Richmond defender Steven Morris will need to be cashed in sooner rather than later and, unless you’ve got seven premium defenders already, I’d be trying to upgrade them rather than downgrading – it’s slim pickings back there at the moment.

On the flip side, there were some solid rookie scores racked up in round six. And then there was Toby Greene. A massive 122 against Carlton saw the GWS mid’s price soar another $40k and garner a negative breakeven, ensuring the cash will continue to flow his way for a little longer yet. Not bad for a 13-year-old. In the same game, Blues defender Paul Bower pumped out 116 points the week that 1000 coaches dropped him from their teams. A kick short of a century, Stephen Coniglio and Devon Smith both enjoyed season-high scores (in fact, Coniglio was only just short of his previous top score by half-time, at which stage he’d compiled 67 points), while James McDonald continued to roll along with a not-to-be-sneered-at 92.

Bower wasn’t the only rookie-priced defender hauling in the points, with Marty Clark, Karmichael Hunt and Tom Gillies all nabbing 80s, while Tommy Bugg continued his roller-coaster ride of a season with his 68 following scores of 96, 66, 93, 57 and 97. (Thanks to @ryanthompson_5 for pointing out the pattern on Twitter.)

Two gamers

A total of 10 rookie-priced players turned out for their second game in round six but, honestly, only two of them are worthy of a spot in your DT. I guess if you were desperate to downgrade one of those defenders to someone with good job security, then you could pick up Collingwood’s Nathan Brown, but don’t expect better than the 40 points a game he’s plodding along at thus far, given his best career average to date his 40.5ppg.

No, the only two to be considered this week are Gold Coast midfielder Kyal Horsley and GWS mid-fwd Taylor Adams, and you don’t “consider” Horsley, you just do it. (Yes, he’ll cost a touch above the rookie base price, and Risca and Ablett will impact his scoing on their return, but, like an 11-year-old private school girl, you don’t want to be the only kid in the playground without a Horse). That leaves Adams, who, like Adam Treloar before him, faces certain challenges to being a “sure thing”. His coach, Kevin Sheedy, is the main one. You don’t get born after 1990 and expect to avoid a rest if you’re playing under Sheeds this year. Hell, Treloar got one after just three games, although he was, admittedly, on the comeback trail from injury. If you’re willing to cop the odd AWOL week from Adams, including the round 11 bye that he shares with the rest of his GWS teammates, then a 71 and 91 from his first two suggests you’ll make a decent dollar out of this one. I suspect that being restricted to two trades a week will mean most miss out on Adams, however, with plenty of teams packing a Horsley-plus-upgrade-trade combo this week

One gamers

The flood of fresh meat (don’t picture it) is certainly starting to slow, with six NKOTB in round six. No one will be surprised to know that Greater Western Sydney handed out another debut, but midfielder Liam Sumner, who scored 64 against Carlton, will be hard to consider as a downgrade target due to his price ($139k) and bye week. Price ($177k) also stunts St Kilda forward Aaron Siposs’ chances of cracking more than a couple of Dream Teams, while backline trio Jacob Brennan (West Coast), Josh Bootsma (Carlton) and Lee Spurr (Fremantle) don’t boast strong enough job security to be genuine targets at this point, despite the real need for some in defence. Spurr, possibly, could have potential, as could St Kilda defender Beau Wilkes, although he was a late withdrawal from the Hawthorn match, making way for first-gamer Ahmed Saad, who started as the sub.

Right then, who wants to hear my captaincy tips for the weekend? Nope, no one? Okay, hang about for a bit and Calvin will be along with his world-famous advice. Bet I cop hiding. Follow on Twitter: @ChookDT

217 Comments

  • im teaching stats at the moment and thought id have a look at a few DT related things,

    main thing i noted that Abletts average is the same as Stanton’s (134.5). So i thought i’d calculate their standard deviations as well (basically a measure of consistency) to split them (assuming you had neither or were choosing a captain from them).

    Ablett and Swans standard deviation was around 22 whilst Stantons was around 44. Basically its saying Stanton is twice as inconsistent as Swan and Ablett.Stanton is just as likely to score between 90 and 180 whilst Ablett is likely to score between 112 and 155. Just some food for though when picking a captain or upgrading.

    in other news

    Magner -> Korse + Ellis -> Heppel = #Winning!

  • Nice to be able to finally pick a horse you can’t lose on! His nickname should be pharlap!

  • I’m very lucky that I traded out c.smith for pharlap last week and reaped his 122 :) also i still get to hold on to old mac, magnet and shiel and continue to watch them fatten :)

    • injury trades pissing me off though, already traded out gaz, shaw and now goodes + gibbs is stinking up my 4 premo midfield bigtime. selwoods out last week and hargraves ommission hurt too. both would have had massive scores imo that week. Oh and then theres trading out d.smith last week who gets 97 to rub my face in it. Also chose broughton over hep d which so far looks like the wrong move. Finished 1063rd last year, now about 15,000th. not happy jan.

  • I UNDERSTAND YOU ALL HAVING A DIP AT PEOPLE LOOKING AT TRADING OUT ABLETT IF HE DOESNT GET NAMED THIS WEEK (FEEL ITS TO LATE IF YOU HAVE KEPT HIM FOR 2 WEEKS ALREADY) BUT I REKON ON THE FLIP SIDE LAST YEAR WHEN HE CAME BACK FROM INJURY HE FOLLOWED IT WITH A STRIP OF LOW SCORES (under 100 for gaz is considered low) SO ON THAT FRONT I WOULD BE CAREFUL. GREAT READ CHOOK AS USUAL!! I WILL BE RELIEVING THE MAGNET OF HIS DUTIES AND REPLACING HIM WITH THE HORSE AND AFTER A LONG DISCUSION WITH A VERY UNHAPPY BRANDON ELLIS I HAVE ALSO GIVEN HIM HIS UNCONDITIONAL RELEASE ALSO. IN FAVOUR OF D HEP. IM 642 OVERALL ATM AND LOOKING FOR A NEW CAR!!!! ANY SHOW????

    • Ouch! My eyes hurt!!!

    • I think that puts you about 400 points from the leader roughly.

      I really like the trades but to win the car you might need to find a rough diamond to make up some ground. Heppell is the talk of the trade table besides the Horse this week. I reckon that H. Shaw might be my rough diamond in a week or 2. Might even be an Enright. Both proven stars who have had bad starts to their respective seasons but seem to be humming along now to be given some thought.

      I think to be a realistic chance of the car you need to be no more than 500 points from the leader come round 14. This is where there rough diamonds could make or break your season.

      P.S. – middle of the keyboard to the left is a Caps Lock button. Play with this button a little bit. Reckon the CAPITAL letters for your post make it read like you are not happy and yelling at us ;-)

      • lol its a habit im an angry man

      • Just a quick warning on Shaw. The first few weeks with Shaw not scoring well was when Ben Johnson was out. When Johnson came back in his scoring got better. Johnson could now be out for the season so he might not score as well as last week.
        Maybe a coincidence but I would wait a week just to be sure

        • Interesting thoughts mate. I was thinking that Brown was a bigger reason for Shaw starting the season a little slow having to play deeper in the backline. Last week he was almost playing as a wing/half forward.

          Goddard upgrade is required before Shaw but cheers mate for the heads up. Will keep an eye on the productivity levels with no Johnson.

        • Johnson hardly played on the weekend when shaw got 111. This will have no effect on Shaws scoring.
          Now the pies have brown, reid, .maxwell, keefe and tarrant (to come back in) Shaw will be playing further up the ground like last week and his scoring will only improve,
          Make of this what you will…..

  • ok got some questions for you all. rocky and stanton ( ok i know im gonna get grilled for this) i just cant see myself to consider them for my mids given a string of inconsistent performances in the past, last year included. having said that i am really coming around on stanton( must be all those +6s) please tell me im not the only one thinking that they are both dangerous picks. on a totally unrelated front i was really impressed with dylan shiel on the weekend and believe he will become a keeper for me (prob m7 or m8) what are your thoughts on your m7 and m8 keepers???? cheers ANY SHOW?

  • Thats ok people I have decided myself hehe

    I will trade adams in this week IF he is named for one of my failed/fattened cash cows, likely Guthrie as he is stinking up my backline good and proper and has a BE of 70 something.

    Reading your posts on here does help, there really isnt many downgrade options ATM that are much good, apart from the HORSE of course.

    • A horse is a horse, of course, of course,
      And no one can handball to a horse of course
      That is, of course, unless the horse is the famous Kyal Horsley

  • Am I crazy to think of benching Goodes this week

    Getting the Horse from Magner &
    Getting Lake from Ellis

    It would mean i could lock everywhere but fwd line (minus anyway LTI’s)
    but would have to field Smith, Milera, Kennedy & Treloar (pray he plays) plus 3 premos

    I know i should do swap with Kennedy to Adams, but Ellis to Lake means set back line

    Have 16 trades after these week

    • anymore*

    • i thought about this…

      thought bench goodes… bring in treloar to cover him (if playing) really depends what GWS FWDs are playing and if i can cover goodes…

      then thought magner – horse
      clarke – heppell

  • Cheers for the Article Chook !!
    Any trades you guys suggest?!

    Team Looks Like:
    DEF: Goddard, Birchs, Lids, Gravy, Golby, Bugg, Ellis [Morris, Smedts]

    MID: Swan, Penduls, J.Selwood, S.Selwood, Rocky, NDS, [Shiel, Coniglio]

    RUCK: Jacobs, Giles [Redden, Big o]

    FWD: RObinson, Buddy, Sidey, Martin, Dangerfield, Treloar, Kennedy, [Pfieffer, Hall]

    Obviously looking to bring in the Horse, but any ideas, on other trades could bring in:
    Adcock
    Beams (Would be trading Nds…)
    and any other Defender [Getting rid off Golby]

    Any Ideas?!? Thoughts :D

  • Fairly important name youve forgotten Chook. One Lachie Neale.

    As for myself will be dumping Kennedy(and my DPP link) to get the horse before he bolts. Cwutididthere.

  • http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/135303/default.aspx
    Ablett looking good this week.
    make of this what you will….

  • anyone know how to reverse trades on the iphone app? is it possible?

  • Great work chook.

    I seriously needed spurr to get at least 60+ on the weekend.
    I guess i’ll have to upgrade ellis and morris as oppose to downgrade :(
    Looking at scotland, hope he gets 40 this week and drops heaps in price!

    • Upgrade one, downgrade the other when their prices are right. Downgrade to the cheapest you can find and don’t worry if they don’t play… you’ll have 8 in DEF anyway. How often have you needed both subs this year? Wait till R13 to do the double trade.

  • do people think pfeiffer will play weekend or dropped or subbed???

  • Done Magner -> Horsley (of course) which allows me to do Shiel -> anyone under $547k (Murphy, Simpson, Selwood, Thompson, Watson, Mitchell, Kennedy, Judd, Hayes, Barlow etc) to get another premium in.

    Current midfield: Ablett, Pendlebury, Boyd, Rockliff, McDonald, Greene, Horsley, Shiel

    Leaning towards Watson, Kennedy or Barlow – any opinions?

    • i would get murphy or selwood personily….but ur choice!

    • Your going to have a really good midfiled.

      • Cheers guys. Must admit sitting back at the screen and looking at:

        Ablett, Pendlebury, Boyd, Rockliff, Murphy, Horsely/Greene/McDonald

        is quite satisfying! I reckon 2 premium defence upgrades, 1 mid and 2 forward finishes my team. 18 trades left.

        Deledio, Goddard, Waters, Broughton, Hargrave, Bugg [Ellis, Morris]
        Ablett, Pendlebury, Boyd, Rockliff, Murphy, Horsely [Greene, McDonald]
        Cox, Giles [Redden, Stephenson]
        Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Martin, Zaharakis, Porplyzia, Smith [Treloar, Dickson]

        • Clarke is also in my defence.

          • Hey Tex, haven’t seen you for a while! Used to be one of the few contributers when I was on night shift. (Im back in the real world now, haha) how are you faring this year?

    • Has to be Murphy, surely you’ll want Swan/Stanton for your last spot. Fits bye structure.

      • Yeah, I think Murphy is probably the right choice.

        Hey Shane, yeah still around and loving DT as much as always, just quite a bit less time these days to write too much or get on the live chat as often thanks to a 20 month old Junior Tex!

        I’ve actually been pretty happy with my start this season so far, managed to avoid quite a few of the injuries and have jumped up the overall ladder each week. Currently sitting 1834th and in the top couple in all of my 5 leagues. Long season to go though! How are you faring mate?

  • Probs not the place to be advertising but here goes ..;/

    http://www.dreamteaminfo.webs.com

    check it out hey? ;)

    • Horrible background and if I have to sign up as a member before being able to checkout what’s in store for me that’s a no no.

  • I have Magner and Wingard as the potential trades to Horsley.

    I have chosen to trade Magner because Wingard hasn’t made enough coin and I am confident he will come straight back into the Port team next week.

    Magner hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since his opening 2x100s

  • Whats going on with MAtt Buntine at GWS? Will he be getting any games soon?

  • Anyone for Jack Crisp?

  • I have only made the two trade, but managed to constrict my team flexibility a lot. the only sensible trades I can see this week for my team are.

    Magner or Horsley and Golby for Scotland

    or

    Golby for ? and Kennedy for Chapman.

    I do not have enough cash in the bank (56k) to trade for Horsley and then upgrade Kennedy for someone decent (leave me with about 396k)

    Thoughts.

    • You could wait a week and hope Kennedy beats his BE and another premium you have your eye on doesn’t. Otherwise you’re just settling for second best and wasting a trade, especially if you have to re-upgrade a B-grade upgrade.

  • My forward line is currently Franklin, Pav, Chapman, Dangerfield, Martin, Porplyzia, Adams (Cameron, Treloar). I have left myself with one more trade for this half of the season to upgrade one of my forward line cash cows. Who would you recommend an upgrade to? I have $238,000 in the bank.

    • You will need to turn one of your GWS rooks into a rd 12 or 13 gun or round 11 is gonna suck mate

      You could take a punt on Zaha now, but I’d give it a couple weeks and aim for Beams or Robbo if I was you

      • or Sidebottom. Actually, if you could get Sidey now, that might be the one

  • Haha I enjoyed your left field Chook’s Captain’s article last week, was an amusing choice and gave me hope for Broughton, even if he did score a disappointing 75 and gave us all a scare by getting reported!

    Hope to see another left field Cpt option this week on in the future!
    Great article also. :)

  • Ha! Sorry to hear about your Captain Broughton experiment…

    I myself gave the ‘C’ to Broughton last year, also against the Suns… and he rewarded me with a 149. Just tried it that once though.

    But no guts no glory Chook! Just think, you could’ve looked like a genius, and been crowing like me…

  • Guys thoughts on these trades?

    Magner – The Horse

    Houli – Heppell

    Winwin?

  • Magner to Phar Lap

    Barlow to Stanton? Bad Trade??
    sick of Barlow being underdone especially against GC,..

  • While im set about getting Horse and everyone should be. Just looked over the freako report and noticed that he has one of the lowest TOG% (71%) out of a lot of the GC players.

    Just food for thought!!!

    • Yeah it means his ppm is off the fricken charts.

      Even more of a lock

    • hasn’t he only played 2 games, makes it a bit hard to gather any “real” data

  • Kane Lucas to Horsley………. thoughts?

    • Why did you have Kane Lucas at the start?

      Anyway, do it!

      • He is the almost the same price as Magner………… hello.

      • I would be keeping Lucas.

        His b/e at 60 odd looks bad, but the sub-caused 11 is to blame. If he gets a 70 or 80 this week, his b/e next week will be tiny.

        Magner, on the other hand, seems to have in his system the kinds of scores he is going to continue to produce. In other words, he’s pretty much ripe.

        You just have to hope that Lucas shrugs off the vests. But overall I like your chances of getting more cash out of Lucas rather than Mags

  • neeed some help:

    magner to adams, use dpp link to trade goodes in the mid and trade him to swan/murphy
    or
    magner to horse, goodes to beams or chappy?

    • Depends on your bye structure, though without knowing this, I’d go with the second choice and bring in Beams. Rate him highly.

    • WHY HORSELY?????????????????????

  • Just done a bit of research on the Eagles and found two potential future downgrades.

    With Hams suspended, there is a chance that Koby Stevens and Ryan Neates will get some game time for a few weeks. Both dominated in the WAFL last week along with Lewis Stevenson (High price, but has potential).

    It is expected one of the three will get some game time soon. Whilst their JS might be minimal, it is better than having nothing to consider.

    Zorko, Docherty, Gibson and Couch are about the only players I have kept an eye on of late. Good to be able to add a few more to the mix.

  • Anyone else thinking about McCarthy to Horsely. I cant see massive improvement in his scores and he is a slight chance to miss his BE. I think Shiel and Mags have more cash to make…

    • If I had McCarthy or Masten, I’d be saying, “thanks bloke, you have done what I bought you to do, now I’m going to butcher your ass”.

    • Getting Horsley in now??/

      Not sure if serious…

  • What do you think of my team:

    David’s All Stars

    Round Score: 1,435

    DEF: B Goddard , Deledio ,Birchall, Bugg, Clarke, Hargrave, Ellis, (Morris, Brown)

    MID:Pendlbury, Stanton, Murphy, Boyd, J, Selwood, Ebert (Shiel, Gibson)

    RUCK: Mcintosh ,Giles (Renouf, Stephenson)

    FWD: L Franklin, Tippett, Cloke, Martin, S D smith, A. Kennedy, Smedts,( Hall, Zorko)

    Bank: $194,000
    Trades this week: Mumford to renouf, Magner to stanton

    Feedback would be appreciated