Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 6

  • End Carnage

Finally! The DT plague equivalent seems to have abated this week, with the number of injuries, late withdrawals, and sub-vests back to its normal, manageable level. The popular players all seemed to fire in Round 6; so with the right Captain, you could have entered the fabled waters of 2300. Most though, would have been happy with 2100 this week.

We have a lot to get through this week, with Cash Cowing all the rage at this stage of the season. Let’s delve straight into the biggest issue of the week then: The Horse!

  • Giddy Up

Saddle-up, because I’m getting on the Horse this week, and so should you. I really shouldn’t need to convince you, but here are 5 reasons why, if you’re not sold on him or you’re scared of his $119,800 price-tag:

1. Let’s take a look at his back-story. A gifted junior but ultimately a late-bloomer, the Horse played all 23 games for Subiaco in 2011, eventually finishing runner-up in the Sandover Medal (WAFL Brownlow equivalent). He averaged 91.4 DT points in the WAFL that year, playing in a notoriously strong midfield. He’s now 24 years old, making him a mature-ager – and we all know how successful they’ve been in DT over the last 3 or 4 years.

2. He’s scored two tons on the trot so far, 101 and 123. Yes, it’s unlikely that he’ll average anywhere close to 110 this year, but his blistering early form guarantees his first two prices will be absolute belters.

3. Injuries to the other ‘experienced’ players are building up at the GCS, increasing his JS even more. Ablett is still missing, Rischitelli is still winged, Harbrow is out for two months minimum, and Bock has just broken his leg. Given his form and his status as a ‘bigger body’, you can be assured Horsley will be around for at least the medium term.

4. There are no other downgrade options on the horizon, and definitely not any of this quality. Giant Taylor Adams is the only other option, and I’d argue that his Mid/Fwd DPP doesn’t quite make up for his inferior JS, scoring and higher price. You need someone peaking around the MBR’s and beyond, and the Horse is your guy.

5. That brings us to the Byes. Horsley is valuable in the way that he’s a rookie NOT from the R11 Bye, unlike all our GWS rookies. That’s potentially one less donut right there.

So how do we get him in? As he only has MID eligibility, it has to be someone from that line. The problem here is that most of our rookies haven’t peaked yet (thanks to huge games on the weekend – cheers boys!) – and those that have, such as Adam Kennedy, could be part of an important Mid/Fwd DPP link. The way I see it, these are your options.

Bite The Bullet and Upgrade/Downgrade.

You decide to keep your DPP link (very important over the MBRs) and trade out one of your other Mids. For many, this leaves you with a choice between Magner ($260,100, 17BE), Shiel ($259,100, 8BE), or Coniglio ($250,600, 20BE) to make some cash, despite their potential to make even more in the future. The other downside here is that many of your other Mids haven’t peaked either, so you’ll have to upgrade to a defender/forward to avoid shooting yourself in the foot too badly.

Cash-Grab and Run

You decide that you want to give your cows another week or two to swell before you cash them in and pull a midfield upgrade, but you don’t want to miss out on this Cash Horse. You make a compromise of sideways trading a non-cow like Clay Smith ($149,100, 2BE) or Wingard ($167,500, 41BE).

The Horse over DPP

You decide that getting Horsley in is more important than the DPP link at this stage, especially with the downgrade stocks so barren (and maybe you think that Zorko is a good chance to have debuted by the MBRs?). So you trade out Adam Kennedy ($201,800, 50 BE) or Devon Smith ($256,300, 31BE). The downside to this is that downgrading Kennedy doesn’t really give you enough cash for an upgrade (in which case you may as well do the Cash-Grab and Run), and Devon Smith hasn’t fully fattened yet (in which case, you may as well go with the Bite the Bullet option).

  • Keep Mooing, Keep Falling

Yep, more Cash Cow talk. I make no apologies though, as it’s a crucial month for cash generation and it’s something that you really need to get right, because we don’t get another shot at it.

I said last Round to give your Cows another week, because one big score will keep them ticking over, while a poor score will engage the breaks almost immediately. Well, we actually had more of the former this week, which means that the cash growth will continue for another fortnight at least for some of these guys.

I’m talking about guys like McDonald (92, -25BE), Greene (122, -22), Shiel (72, 8BE), D. Smith (97, 31 BE) and Coniglio (97, 20BE). These scores will stick in the three-week moving averages and will power their cash-rises for the next few weeks; keep them and enjoy the cash. In the meantime, keep a keen eye on the fallen premiums and net yourself a bargain. Here are a few options to keep an eye on:

DEFENDER: Grant Birchall – 84.8 avg – 126 BE

Birchall had only the 60 this week, so his score will fall over the next fortnight because of that. He’s still a gun and the Hawks still want to use him at every opportunity, so consider him as a defence upgrade in two weeks for around $390k.

MIDFIELDER: Sam Mitchell – 107.2 – 147 BE

Mitchell is the one I’m really excited about. In 1-2 weeks time he should be absolutely bottomed-out, thanks to the 63 he eeked out in Round 5, which will likely not be repeated again this season. I’m looking at picking him up at around $470-$480k, just when my midfield rookies have peaked.

FORWARD: Travis Cloke – 83.3 avg – 113 BE

Not an unassailable BE for Cloke, but with back-to-back 76’s in his rolling average, he’ll surely dip over the next few weeks regardless. Travis is one of the few fallen premiums still on the way down, with Stevie J and Chapman reversing a slow start to the season. My forward line’s almost complete, but I’ll definitely consider him at around $360k in 2 or 3 weeks.

  • Makers & Breakers

Stanton! The +6 Combo King. The Striped Seagull. The Cheap-Mark Colonel. The Hard-Running Hombre. Whatever you want to call him, he had 193 of the best on the weekend, a DT record (since the DT competition has been running, anyway)! His inconsistency and hatred of a tag can be frustrating sometimes, but when you’re regularly reaching the dizzying heights of 170 and beyond, who cares? Stanton currently has the highest total points of any DTer in the game at the moment.

Reports that Stevie J traded himself into his own fantasy team this week should have been an omen that the fallen premium was ready to explode! Johnson has 163 on the weekend, only his second ton of the season, thanks to 35 disposals, 10 marks, 7 tackles and 3 goals. Now that’s a stuffed stat sheet.

He’s been quietly getting it done, moving strings behind the scenes – and that’s exactly how Heppell likes it. Many shied away from the Bomber defender in the pre-season despite his encouraging debut year, perhaps wary of the infamous second-year blues. HeppD has had no such ailment, scoring 137 points in Round 6 to take his yearly average to 96.7, with all of his scores 73 or above. Get on him!

Beams was a popular sideways trade option for the Fyfe LTI, and didn’t he reward those who paid top dollar for him! His 137 points from the weekend follows his 121 from Round 5, meaning that if you’re going to get on board, it has to be soon.

Toby Greene and his 122 points sneak into the Makers this week, just ahead of fellow rookie Kyal Horsley (123). Tobes gets the nod purely because he is more highly owned league-wide (last week anyway). The Greene Machine had 28 disposals, 9 marks and 5 tackles, which all contributed to his team-high score. It’s also done wonders for his progress as a Cash Cow, boosting him another $40k this week; and with a BE of -22 heading into Round 7, it ensures there is plenty more to come.

It’s hard to find 5 players to hate on this week, but I’ll try! And although he didn’t even play, Joel Selwood makes it onto the Breakers list for Round 6. Many of us were rejoicing mid-week when he escaped a suspension, and for what? So he could shit the entire football public and become yet another obvious-in-hindsight late withdrawal? Actually, no. I don’t believe this is his fault – I know he’d have wanted to play if possible. This was a tactical manoeuvre by the Cats’ Selection Committee, so they can take his spot in the Breakers. Pricks.

Old School DT logic says to wait for a fallen premium to bottom-out, then snaffle them up for unders. Well, the way Dal Santo is travelling, we might be able to get him for $350k! The guy is stinking it up, plain and simple. He hasn’t tonned-up since Round 1, and with 59 this week, things aren’t looking much better for him anytime soon.

It seems that each week, the Dockers have a high-profile under-performer. This week, it’s Duffield and his 38. He was making great progress with three 80+ scores on the trot, especially as a non-R13-bye defender, but pulled one of those customary sub-40 scores that are absolute week-killers. The good news is that for those who don’t have him, his price will be slashed over the next few weeks. Watch closely.

The much-awaited return of Grant Birchall was much-disappointing. I mean, 60 wasn’t terrible, but when one of your premiums decides to be a late withdrawal two weeks in a row, you kind of expect them to make it up to you when they finally get out there on the track. Especially when those who held Shaw were rewarded with 111.

Adam Kennedy is a dirty tease. 116 on debut followed by a solid 72 had us all salivating about this eminent Angus-grade Cash Cow. Since then, we’ve been rewarded for our optimism with 58, 41 and 40, split by a DNP. With a BE of 50 next week, he may just be ripe for the picking. I use ‘ripe’ loosely, as he’s only valued at a shade over $200k.

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

Tough break with Burgoyne – and I guess this question sort of applies to those who have Enright as well. My personal inclination would be to hold – I’ve learnt that the backline is so highly volatile, that anyone you trade in is almost guaranteed to get injured or experience a sudden role change. For that reason, I would hold fire, at least until after the MBRs when there is less room for error and no byes to manoeuvre. Besides, maybe Burgoyne will get his act together in the meantime.

Wow, the ruck crisis just keeps getting worse! McEvoy joining a long list of injured ruck premos… Anyway, in your situation, I would either hold or downgrade. You have Cox and Giles! The 2nd and 7th ranked ruckmen, by overall points! I honestly think you’d be better served by selling down to Longer and using the cash for an upgrade elsewhere, or holding McEvoy until he returns from injury. Especially with Brogan injuring himself again and leaving the door open for Giles. As for the MBRs – you’re going to cop donuts somewhere no matter what; may as well be in the rucks.

Great question! I haven’t really talked about backline Cash Cows (despite this edition of the Bullets being almost exclusively about our little money-makers), mainly due to the lack of downgrade options, as you say. When our only options are first-gamers Spurr (22), Bootsma (30) and Brennan (31), you know we’re in trouble. And it’s not just the low scoring that’s worrying; it’s the JS, of which Spurr is the rated the highest at ‘poor’. Brennan will be gone as soon as Schofield returns from suspension, and Bootsma’s next game may well be when they next play the Suns or Giants.

With that said, we need to pull the pin on Morris/Ellis at some point, especially if (like me) they are both languishing, unused, on your bench. They both have great JS, and still with some more room to grow, I’d recommend keeping them until someone decent comes along. Although, in scanning some of the names, our best hopes are probably Sam Darley or Jeremy Webberly. Ouch.

  • Lucky Number 7

All eyes will be on the Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants clash this week. Who will win? Or could they somehow both lose? Will Gary Ablett get up and play? And, of course, will our rookies make us some more cashola?
Other issues that will plague the DT community this week are:

# With Goodes out for 6, who should we trade him for?
# Will Broughton be in trouble for sliding into, and injuring, David Swallow’s ankle?

# If Gablett does play, would you be man enough to chuck the ‘C’ on him?

# What should we do with the injured McEvoy?

# Will Thomas Couch finally get a game after yet another BOG performance?

I’m sure there’ll be plenty of discussion about these issues and others over the week, and, of course, DT Talk has you covered.

 

Tweetasaurus: @tbetta9

355 Comments

  • great post again tbetta.

    planning to get ablett in next week, but trading bock out now.

    what are thoughts:
    Scotland
    or
    Waters + a trade
    or
    Suckling + a trade

  • good or bad trades??
    magner to horsley
    milera to a.walker/zaha?

    • magner -> horsely.

      Shouldnt even ask

      Who are your other forwards?

    • here is a list of players who are likely to be in the top ten forwards at the end of the year.
      Buddy, sidey, robbo, beams, dusty, danger, cloke, zaha, lewis, pav, rok, hawkins, christensen, pearce.

      Walker is not on the list.
      You may as well get waite – or betts.

      • No Higgins?????

        Damn!!! Need to change my trades this week ;-)

      • Ingoes, So no Stevie J or Chappy in that top 10…….interesting. Where do you propose they will end up??

        • respectively, in gaol and in hospital.

          I jest, i jest.

          Chuck em in there. all the more reason to give walker a miss

      • i only have 409K in the bank and my fwds are buddy, sidey, martin, robbo, danger, milera, treloar, pfeiffer, dickson. trading out milera

        • Well i suggest you wait a week til you have the cash to upgrade properly. Need to get gun fwds this year because there are going to be a few averaging well over 100.

      • Nick riewoldt maybe?

    • Walker, lock it asap.

  • Nice article, keep up the good work!!!

  • They should change the eliminator rules this week so that those who traded Horsley in get to play those who didnt. ;)

  • Hi GUys,

    Really not sure…Have McCarthy and Magner to choose from for the Horse – any opinions?

    Looking to upgrade forwards to Beams – had Chappy last year and was solid without the glorious 130’s…any opinions at a seemingly underpriced zaha?

    Cheers

  • I see you guys clocked the 8k likes on stalkbook today. Congrats gents. Don’t forget us when you get your tv deals.

  • Off topic, but HAPPY 37th B’day Inspector Gadget!

  • Gonna squeeze in another downgrade/upgrade this week then try to calm the trading till the byes approach.

    Heppell 438K BE of 37 plays WCE RICH GWS MELB SYD BYE
    Shaw 408K BE of 74 plays BRIS GEE ADL GC MELB BYE

    Will need another premo back in after byes ( Rd 13) thinking Shaw will outscore Heppell by years end in an improving collingwood backline if he doesn’t do anything stupid. Did I say “never again”
    One of you will be welcomed, who’s it gonna be……….

    • Shaw is a prick, DT creates angst. Do you want this angst to be multiplied by Shaw’s presence?

  • Would love Beams but unfortunately he’s a pipe dream at the mo.

    Who should be my priority?

    Pearce
    Dangerfield
    Pavlich
    ROK
    Zaha

    Why is it always the one I want the most exy!

    Do you think the Pearce train has left and is everyone on it going to die when it crashes head on into a crap score?

    • Jordan Lewis anyone?

    • Can’t go wrong with ROK and Zaha at their current prices. Reckon Cloke is good value as well.
      They are all as good as each other. Try and be a little unique though. Too many bums and neckless nuts in forward lines already.

      I just don’t know about Pearce still. His train left the station a while ago yet he keeps scoring well. Just couldn’t do it. Will be happy to be proven wrong by years end.

      • Well taking Perace out of the equation it would then be Dangerfield but I don’t think I could do that to my self either.

        Another issue is I lost Shiel last week so its going to have to be Magner to Horsely this week unless I put Kennedy in the mids and loose my DPP. If I do this are there any DPP rooks on the rader anytime soon?

        • Make that ‘lost Smith’ not Sheil.

        • I have had Dangerfield all year. He is a much more improved player this year to date. It is weird because only a few weeks ago there were many people that bagged him out due to his game against the Hawks. He was very good that day but couldn’t get the easy possies around the ground. Everyone needs to allow young players to have a bad game every now and then.

          Kennedy needs to go before Magner surely. I wouldn’t be too concerned about losing the DPP into the mids as you can just do a Magner to Zaha/Danger/ upgrade next week. This in essence will be upgrading your forward line through the midfield.

          Bad move losing Shiel last week….

          • Actually it was Smith but just as bad. Cheers.

            I think your right. I always chase DPP but this year it hasn’t helped me once yet.

            Maybe Kennedy to Horsley this week then Magner or Sheil to Beams or who ever next week.

            What’s your take on Hall?

          • I really don’t know. He was playing well then they decided to give him a 2 week rest. He may have had a niggle and they gave him the extra week off. It is very confusing though. I am hoping he plays through the MBR’s (especially round 11) to provide some cover so I really don’t mind him taking the next couple of weeks off as well to be right.

            I reckon it will depend on who is in your forward line. If you have say Treloar, Dickson, Hall and Kennedy sitting in there then it becomes more important. I am lucky enough to have 6 premo’s now in the forwards along with Smith, Treloar and Hall. Just need those guys to get me to round 12 now without injury or having a week holiday together. Easier said than done this year so far….

  • Hope no one takes offence to this… Being a post under tbetta’s article but;
    Was thinking to myself what downgrades could be made in weeks to come… Have a list of fallen prems to look at… But thought it would be great to collate a pick of upcoming down grades etc… Then bam!!! Came across a dudes post on fan footy… Hope this helps peeps… Great reference tool…

    ROOKIE STUDS: HIGHEST PRICE INCREASE TO DATE.

    1     Giles, J            $191,600
    2     Bugg, T            $181,900
    3     Magner, J            $174,300
    4     Greene, T    $157,500
    5     Shiel, D            $154,900
    6     McDonald, J    $143,000
    7     Clarke, M            $140,000
    8     Smith, D            $135,100
    9     McIntosh, H    $128,800
    10     Ellis, B            $116,400

    TIME TO GO? BREAK EVENS APPROACHING AVERAGE SCORE.

    Guthrie, Cameron  – $202,100 -$2,400 ($51,700)  AVG = 45.3  BE = 74
    Ellis, Brandon  – $233,100 $12,200 ($116,400) AVG = 56.7 BE = 55
    Clarke, Marty – $281,500 $21,600 ($140,000) AVG = 71.8 BE = 53
    Kennedy, Adam – $201,800 $3,300 ($97,600) AVG = 65.4 BE =50
    Tomlinson, Adam – $179,900 $0 ($36,200) AVG = 49.2 BE = 44
    Wingard, Chad – $167,500 $0 ($10,300) AVG = 40.2 BE = 41
    Milera, Terry – $220,500 $6,400 ($104,700) AVG = 61.5 BE = 38
    Hombsch, Jack  – $218,500 $9,800 ($114,300) AVG = 57.5 BE = 36
    Townsend, Jacob – $154,900 $0 ($50,700) AVG = 41.4 BE = 32
    Smith, Devon – $256,300 $15,900 ($135,100) AVG = 71 BE = 31
    Morris, Steven – $216,900 $15,300 ($112,700) AVG = 55.3 BE = 30

    Ok so a few of those above stil have a way  to go for thier BE to catch up to thier average, but that is the most common rooks who now have BE over 30.

    HANG ONTO THESE: ROOKS WITH LOW BE.

    Treloar, Adam  – BE = -42 (should rotate back in to the lineup sooner ratehr than later)
    Crisp, Jack – BE = -32 (Not many got on this one but for those that did keep him while he plays)
    McDonald, James – BE = -25 (great JS, no sign of a drop in scoring)
    Greene, Toby – BE = -22 (Gun, warming up now and much cash to be made for owners)
    Bower, Paul  – BE = 0 (showed what he can do Vs GWS, but can he hold his spot, Russell looked good too)
    Cameron, Jeremy – BE = 3 (will be back and getting better every game)
    Mohr, Tim – BE = 3 (also getting better every game, KPP not ideal for DT but will still make owners more cash and great JS)
    Shiel, Dylan – BE = 8 (what can I say, will continue to get better)
    Seedsman, Paul – BE = 9 (not a lot of JS but if you have him keep him while he is playing)
    Magner, James – BE = 17 (will be the most traded out player of the round but still has money to make owners)
    Coniglio, Stephen – BE = 20 (starting to show why he went where he went in the draft)
    Pfeiffer, Darren – BE = 20 ( started sub had an average game, but if named again I wouldn’t dump him yet)
    Bugg, Tomas – BE = 22 (don’t be put off by his last outing both he and kennedy had roles that killed thier own games)
    Hampton, Curtly – BE = 27 (don’t like his role, will be up and down but not nearly maxed out yet)

    WHAT’S GOING ON? RooKs that are in and out and missing in action.

    Hall, Aaron – BE = -34 AVG 55.5 Played 4 games. (Consider a sideways trade as JS of this’un is uncertain)
    Stephenson, Orren – BE = -35 AVG 45.5 Played 2 games. (Not a lot of options, West isn’t setting the world on fire)
    Redden, Jarrad – BE = -16 AVG 60.6 Played 3 games. (Not a lot of options for replacements, hope for a recall and further rises)
    Smith, Clay – BE = -2 AVG 58 Played 3 games. (Listed every week in emergencies owners can hope for a recall)
    Dickson, Tory – BE = 2 AVG 31 Played 2 games. (Less likely of a recall without injuries also listed in emergencies each week)

    ON THE BUBBLE: Played 2 games about to have large price rise.

    Horsley, Kyal – AVG = 112 BE = -146
    Adams, Taylor – AVG = 81 BE = -81
    Horlin-Smith, George  – AVG 49 BE = -30
    Dell’Olio, Cory – AVG 39 BE = -22
    Reid, Sam J. – AVG 43.5 BE = -6
    Edwards, Shaun – AVG 35.5 BE = -3
    Brown, Nathan J. – AVG 39.5 BE = -1
    Wilson, Nathan – AVG 32.5 BE = 3
    Lyons, Jarryd – AVG 31.5 BE = 5
    Martin, Brodie – AVG 53.5 BE = 6
    Hoskin-Elliott, Will – AVG 55.5 BE = 7
    Longer, Billy – AVG 40 BE = 16
    Ugle, Kirk – AVG 17.5 BE = 33 (Request)

    SEEN EM’ ONCE: RooKs Who Have Played ONE Game.

    Miles, Anthony – Scored 89 BE -110
    Stevens, Koby – Scored 83 BE -98
    Shaw, Sam – Scored 59 BE -50
    Delaney, Cameron – Scored 58 BE -48
    Sumner, Liam – Scored 64 BE -37
    Wilkes, Beau – Scored 47 BE -30
    Bruce, Josh – Scored 36 BE -4
    Bootsma, Joshua – Scored 30 BE 4
    Siposs, Arryn – Scored 55 BE 5
    Brennan, Jacob – Scored 31 BE 6
    Spurr, Lee – Scored 26 BE 22 (Request)
    Yagmoor, Peter – Scored 8 BE 48 (Request)
    Hill, Bradley – Scored 9 BE 46 (Request)
    Lycett, Scott – Scored 49 BE 41 (Request)

    YET TO DEBUT: RooKs We Are Likely To See Soon.

    Patton, Jonathon – We all know who this guy is expected round 8-9.
    Morabito, Anthony – Another one we all know listed as test.
    Buntine, Matthew – Not sure on the story not listed as injured nowhere to be seen
    Haynes, Nick – Showed a bit in pre season comp maybe too young for senior footy? or is he.
    Docherty, Sam – Has been playing in the NEAFL a debut on the cards soon.
    Clifton, Stephen – Was expected back round 6 so a debut cannot be far away.
    Webberley, Jeromey – Another who showed a bit pre season with the other two tiges doing the job may need injury to debut
    Walsh, Tommy – Irish recruit didn’t look ready in pre season comp.
    Darley, Sam – Looked good pre season surprised to not have seen him yet.
    Zorko, Dayne – Just started at NEAFL level could make an appearance within the next few.
    Mitchell, Tom – Knee. Subject to fitness test. Get EXCITED.
    Kavanagh, Elliott – Plenty of injuries at the hanger and still no debut.
    Gibson, Sam – Looked good in pre season, obviously not required yet.
    Couch, Thomas – A matter of time until the coach looses patience with current players?
    Baguley, Mark – Probably would have debut’ with Dempsey out if he was going to anytime soon.

    • you forgot those doing SFA due to red vests

      Smedts scored 50 BE of 24
      Neale scored 67 BE of -10 (important Rd 12 Bye)

    • Missed Adams but agree with everything except Hall.

    • That is quite the run down. All I want is Zorko, Couch, Docherty, Darley and Mitchell to turn up later rather than sooner, around rounds 11-13 would be sublime.
      Wilkes is looking like a good downgrade option for B.Ellis once he starts getting full games.

  • Time for my first upgrade … Ellis -> Heppell,
    part-funded by going … Magner -> Horsley.

  • Canberra Times state;
    GAJ “won’t be coming to Canberra for this weekend’s clash between Greater Western Sydney” and
    “has a knee injury and will be out for another three weeks”

    ???

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/ohailpin-injury-may-put-him-out-for-rest-of-season-20120506-1y7gb.html

    I don’t know where they got their info from?.. but, they seem to know a little more than most!?

    • Living in Canberra, I really don’t think The Canberra Times is a reliable source for the AFL.

      Sounds like the reporter took 2-4 weeks as 4 weeks then minus last week which equates to 3.

  • Canberra Times report that GAJ WILL NOT be making the trip to Canberra to play GWS and goes as far to say his injury will keep him “out for another three weeks”

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/ohailpin-injury-may-put-him-out-for-rest-of-season-20120506-1y7gb.html#ixzz1uBzB63VM

    Hmmmm!???
    .. Full of $hit???

  • I’m considering Bartel out for Horsely, and then using the money to get G.Ablett when Shiel or Magner peak in price. I know Bartel is a pseudo-premo, but I don’t know why I chose him, he’s a champion player but his DT scores are good, not great. Thoughts?

    • He was on fire and copped the vest in the 3rd. Will be fresh and is a gun, but its your call.

  • i currently have swan, pendles, murphy and robbo

    My forward line is buddy, goodes, robbo, side bottom, dustin martin and dangerfield

    Who should i pick up

    1.Beams
    2. Stevie J
    3. Chapman
    4.Zaha
    5. Walker
    6. O’keefe

  • Hey, Tbetta, is that a bad wig you’re wearing or do you go to Chris masten’s hairdresser?

  • Going to bring in the Horse this week like everyone else. Will be at the expense of either Conigs, Shiel or C Smith. Just not 100% sure which.

    Conigs – pretty keen to keep as he is starting to show why he was no. 1
    Shiel – Just hasn’t quite exploded like many of us thought?
    C. Smith – Hoping he returns and makes us some money.

    So Im thinking Shiel?

  • Up until this week i have had carrots sigh…. but on my bench the past few weeks because i had good bnch cover my Defence has been the sme since rd 2 -> Goddard, Deledio, Waters, Suckling, Broughton, Bugg Hargrave (Carrots, Ellis)
    Looking for a premium to trade in but who to go for. I cant go or a rookie cause there arent much available.

  • If the reports are true about ablett Missing another 3 weeks, “http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/ohailpin-injury-may-put-him-out-for-rest-of-season-20120506-1y7gb.html#ixzz1uBzB63VM” i’m thinking of Kennedy to Chapman or lewis???

    • Is this excluding Horsely? It might be an even better reason to holdon GAJ as he now has a full time spot on field until he comes back.

      It won’t be three weeks. Wasn’t he tweeting saying he feels good last week?

      • If Canberra times is anything like Perthnow.com then I wouldn’t be worried. Most of these articles have very little facts behind them. It seems like these articles are projects from people at journo school IMO.

    • You are a Canberra boy too Joseph. You should know that The Canberra Times is probably the worst source in relation to the AFL ever!

      We will know before Thursday. Ablett wont be able to contain letting everyone know. My tip is that the Suns wont be taking 3 players, Ablett, Riska and Swallow into a must win game under injury clouds. Might be a case of name the 2 most advanced in their recovery.

  • I’m a bit undecided, does anyone have an opinion on Goodes –> Bennell? I feel like he is set to have more great games, especially this week against GWS. And he plays in Rd 11. And it gives me an extra $100k or thereabouts. Great JS too I would think.

    I don’t see a downside apart from obvious higher-average players like Stevie J, who I can afford but obviously costs a lot more.

    Can anyone help sway me either way? I have around $50k in the bank before the trade, forward line is

    Sidebottom, Franklin, Dangerfield, Pavlich, D Martin, Goodes/Bennell, D Smith, (Kennedy, Treloar).

    Cheers!
    JT

    • No don’t go bennel
      He has only had scores of 84, 55, 48, 71, 89 and 128
      That is to unreliable, trades you are making now should only be to a premo or rookie
      I would say go chapman, stevie j or beams

    • Thoughts on Jordan Lewis for Goodes??

  • What is everyone’s thoughts on Higgins is around 350 K and is scoring 80s and 90s when he wasn’t sub.

    • You are joking right ?

    • Hey Adam. I have been joking about Higgins the past couple of days but if he drops to $317,500 over the next few weeks I will have no option but to seriously contemplate the unthinkable. He will almost be a direct swap from Smith at that price.

      • Drummond 2.0?

        • Higgins is more reliable than Drummond.

          Please note how I worded that…. :-)

      • say No to Higgins!!!!!!

        NOOOOOO!!!!

        Dont do it for the love of the DT GODS

        • 1. He wont get to that price
          2. I only said seriously contemplate so have an out lol
          3. chances are he will do his hamstring next week and I wont ever need to worry about it again

          • P.S.

            I have pick Higgins for the last 3 years ,
            Its like come on I know you can do it this times
            but I’m not going back there this year

            o’yer Higgins vows ‘no more excuses’

          • I only ever chose him a few years ago. Vowed never again.

            I will always look though and think ‘What if….’. Then sanity prevails.

            Been playing this game way too long to be sucked in again!

  • only have 409K for a fwd, is it worth getting zaha at his price?? or should I wait until next round to get some money and pick up beams, chappy etc?

    • What about the great Andrew Walker Hazza?
      He doesnt come into your almighty calculations anymore?
      Baffling….

  • Great read. I have a few problems:

    Team Dee Aces

    B. Goddard, Waters, Bugg, Clarke, Lake, Birchall, Bock, Ellis Morris.
    M. Murphy, Pendles, Deledio, Hayes, Shiel, McDonald Ablett, Magner
    R. Cox, Gillies, Big O, Redden
    F. Buddy, Dangerfield, Cloke, Martin,Goodes, Porp. Hampton Cameron Treloar.

    OK Bock gone so need to replace him, Goodes – Dont think I can hold him for 6 weeks as GA is also on bench & not going anywhere.

    Am thinking of goodes to Roughy – also gives me spare ruck as Big O & Gillies arent playing.
    Bock out – Delids to backline & Horsley in Mids.

    If I go this way I will still have $372 700 in bank & 16 trades left.

    Would love some thoughts on these changes

    • Bock to Hep D and Goodes to Robbo IMO.
      Shouldn’t have Lids in the Mids by the way.

    • I would trade out Bock, move Delidio into the backs then grab the Horse in the mids (this will depend on Ablett playing) and then I would go Goodes to anyone and next week Magner to Swan.

      • I was going to wait till after the bye rounds then bring in Swan. Already have 2 tigers in backs.

        • Round 13 bye for the Tigers so you still have another 6 weeks to rectify this. They also play Freo in Melb round 11 and GWS round 12 so it can be said that they have an attractive run in the MBR’s.

          Swan is ready to explode. He is able to go on big scoring runs for multiple weeks. People need to balance out the points compared to the donuts scenario. Trades are important as is having cash but the thing that will win you the league you are in is scoring the most points each week.

          There are currently 190 points between 1st and 20th. Then there is 275 points between 20th and 500th. This means that there is a spread of approx 465 points from 1st to 500th. You can see that the field is spreading out a bit now. This is why I am saying it is important to balance trades and $ in the bank to points on the field. If you are lucky enough to be currently in the top 50 then a donut or 2 wont see you drop out of the top 500.

  • Goodes out – beams or robbo in?

    • Either, Robbo has been more reliable but Beams higher ceiling. Both exy.

      • My fwd line is: sidey, buddy, danger, N. riewoldt chappy whitecross and goodes. (Treloar hall)
        I’m thinking trades this week either
        1. Kennedy to horsley then either goodes for one of them or ellis / morris to lids.
        backline is gods, Scotland, waters bugg hargrave Clarke ellis (morris lynch – from syd, picked a randy from start

  • I appologies for this.

    If Gaj doesn’t play;
    Ablett -> Horsley
    Kennedy -> Beams

    Next Week Magner, Sheil or J Mac back to Ablett. (probably won’t afford him :()

    These are just words. What do you think Hazza?

    • I think if u are going to trade Ablett out, it would be wise to wait for him to play at least 2 games to see how it pulls up. His last game was the 97 so he shouldn’t go up in price.
      Imagine if it pulled up sore and he missed another week or 2 and u had just traded him back in.
      Well at least thats my plan.

  • This is my second season so still unsure on trades. Some use them early and do really well, others save them. I haven’t quite figured out a strategy.

    This is my team with 17 trades left and 300k in the bank. With some big cashcows left, over the next few week I’m looking to upgrade to Swan or Ablett in the mids, Heppell or Lake in defence and Robinson or Stevie J in the forward line. What do people think? I was away so missed the first few weeks and not going for top score. Would like to do well in eliminator though so my trades during the bye rounds may be dictated by who I face.

    Score of 2,261 last round.

    Defence: Deledio, Scotland, Goddard, Waters, Hargrave, Bugg, Alex Johnson, Hombsch, Ellis

    Mids: Stanton, Scott Selwood, Pendelbury, Josh Kennedy, Sam Mitchell, Toby Greene, McDonald, Horsley

    Rucks: Ryder, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    Forwards: Sidebottom, Chapman, Franklin, Hawkins, Nick Riewoldt, Porplyzia, T Adams, A Kennedy, Smedt

    • The first thing I would be doing is going Johnson and Hombsch to Shaw and Heppell in the backs. You currently have 5 backs with the round 11 bye and the other 4 having round 13 off. These 2 trades will help take the pressure off over the byes

      Round 11 will hurt you in the mids as well with JPK, Scooter Selwood, Little boy Greene and Old Mac having the week off.

      Don’t get Stevie J till after round 12. You have 4 round 12 bye players in the forwards already.

      I would recommend having a look at the byes now and woking out a little plan on how you want to get through them. Try and leave yourself 6 – 8 trades after they have been completed.

      All in all your team looks strong on paper. For a 2nd year player you are going fine.

  • I went Goodes > Horsley leaving me with 300k or so to spend which i then upgraded A.Kennedy to beams. Good move or not? Still have 100k in the bank. THoughts?