Chook’s Rooks – Round 4

I’m sure this is the first time Greater Western Sydney rookie Adam Treloar has heard this, being the super stud he is, but cobber: you’ve come too early. A fantastic downgrade target who ticks the key boxes of scoring potential, job security and dual-positionality, Treloar would be drafted into just about every team in the country if his debut had been delayed by a few weeks. By then, the likes of Melbourne midfielder James Magner and fellow Giants Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel and Toby Greene would’ve made enough cash that coaches would be champing at the bit to give them the chop. Now, though, they’re faced with the difficult decision of culling a cow before their time, or missing out on Treloar (and fellow bubble “boy” James McDonald) altogether.

Three-or-more gamers

We shouldn’t really be blaming Treloar, of course. The omission of Greene and the late withdrawal of Coniglio this week denied them the chance to add a few extra dollars to their already hefty increases. A good performance by either against Adelaide on Saturday might’ve fattened them up enough that some coaches would’ve been happy to take their cash and run. Magner played, but a role switch to specialist tagger saw him transform from a ball-winner to a bald loser. Okay, that’s way too harsh – on all fronts – but there’s no doubting his defensive job on Western Bulldogs captain Matthew Boyd, which resulted in him netting just 64 points, was worrying for the fact that it lowers his scoring potential significantly. It was as if coach Mark Neeld hadn’t played with Magnets before and wanted to see what happens when you turn them in the other direction. They repel, Mark. Put it back the way you found it, please champ.  A horror schedule for the Demons over the next seven rounds looks like it could do more to hinder than help Magner, too. There’s still plenty of cash to be made from these boys, of course – Magner will continue making money as soon as he passes 22 points against St Kilda on Saturday, while Coniglio and Greene still boast negative breakevens (-4 and -32 respectively).

GWS ruckman Jon Giles was the highest scoring rookie of the three-or-more gamers, grabbing his second hundred this season with 101 points against Adelaide. It proved a timely ton for those coaches missing their Mummy yet again, but round four really belonged to the cheap backs, with defenders occupying four of the top six (and nine of the top 20) scoring slots this week. After Giles came Marty Clarke (95) and Brandon Ellis (79), with Cam Guthrie (72) and – who woulda thunk it – Karmichael Hunt (70) next best after forward Aaron Hall’s 75.

No worries about cash flow for that lot, then, with shiny new breakevens all around, but there’s trouble ahead for some others, like vest-collector Chad Wingard, of Port Adelaide, whose 20 points in round four resulted in a $4500 drop and a BE in the 40s. Starting as the sub also wreaked the scores of GWS back Jacob Townsend and St Kilda forward Jamie Cripps, but the DT drought that’ll have affected the biggest slice of DT players was that being suffered by GWS mid-fwd Adam Kennedy, who’s owned by more than 120,000 coaches. Kennedy has been shedding points ever since his opening-round 116, and managed just 41 this week. It could have been worse – he scored 18 points in the final term to flesh out another underwhelming performance. As Tbetta notes in his must-read Bullets, his role has been largely unchanged, with his spiralling scores being more as a result of GWS experimenting with its game plan. He’s the 10th most traded-out player this week, but I’ll be resisting the temptation from Treloar (until pre-lockout panic hits and I do another of my frenzied last-second trades, at least). The inconsistency Kennedy showed across four quarters is nothing new, of course, with popular GWS back Tommy Bugg falling foul of that this week, charging to 52 points at half-time before fading badly to finish with just 62 for the game. Teammate Devon Smith went the other way, crawling to 15 by the main break before busting out a half-century in the final two quarters.

Two gamers

If you’re not The X Factor and don’t happen to own both Adam Treloar and James McDonald, then this is the week to pick up one or both of the GWS pair if you plan on doing so at any stage this season. I’ve mentioned already that Treloar ($104,200, mid-fwd) is a super downgrade target, having chalked up a 66 and 85 in his two games to date. He just outpointed midfielder McDonald in the Adelaide match, although the farmer’s pre-ban 98 in round one and slightly lower starting price ($98,700) means he takes a higher BE into the Giants’ next match (Treloar is at -85 compared to McDonald’s -119). Put the BEs aside when deciding who to downgrade to, though, as your predictions of who has the greater scoring power and who’ll feature in the most games in the short-to-medium term should carry more weight than the $20-30k difference in their first price rise. For me, Treloar’s DPP status makes him more appealing to my current structure, having lost the link when I sold Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson for Greene.

As I said earlier, though, to downgrade you must first ditch someone else, and none of my cash cows look nearly plump enough just yet. That certainly rules the other two gamers out of consideration, as there’s no chance I’m sending Kennedy, Smith or Shiel off to the slaughterhouse in order to bring in either of Geelong duo Tom Gillies ($138,500, defender, 55 and 49 points) or George Horlin-Smith ($104,200, forward, 58, 40), even if The Hyphen’s second game was cut short by a red vest. At least they still have negative BEs. Gold Coast forward Sam Day is likely to leak – that’s right – leak cash at his first price change, with an average of 25 from his two games and a current breakeven of 50 courtesy of a $150k starting price.

Others who’ve played two games but didn’t feature in round four include Billie Smedts, Orren Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Dom Tyson, Nathan Wilson, Broc McCauley and Tory Dickson.

One gamers

Those passing on Treloar/McDonald will no doubt take plenty of interest in how Port Adelaide’s mature recuit Darren Pfeiffer fares in his second game, after the $117,800 mid-fwd notched an admirable 76 points against Collingwood on Saturday. Job security was one of the major concerns for Michelle in the pre-season, and the horrific injury to teammate Robbie Gray goes some way to easing that.

Nine other rookie-priced players entered the AFL fray for the first time in 2012 this week, with two midfielders – the Giants’ Anthony Miles and Fremantle’s Lachie Neale – the most fantasy relevant. Miles ($104,200, 89 points) is yet another prolific ball-winner nabbed by the GWS recruiters, while Neale ($98,700, 17 points) seems to be a favourite of new Dockers coach Ross Lyon who was slated for a round-one bow before an ankle injury set him back. Don’t be too deterred by Neale’s measly output – it’s all the green vest’s doing. Like Adelaide mid-fwd Sam Kerridge before him, Neale might be able to get three games under his belt before we are forced to pick him following that price-stunting first score. The other players getting the red P plates from m0nty this weekend will be Brisbane centre Jack Crisp ($85,800, 67), Adelaide defender Sam Shaw ($104,200, 59), Essendon forward Cory Dell’olio ($85,800, 43), former Carlton and current Bulldogs defender Mark Austin ($162,200, 41), Geelong mid Jesse Stringer ($104,200, 37), and GWS defender Shaun Edwards ($104,200, 24) and Hawthorn mid Brad Hill ($98,700, 9).

Are you bringing in Treloar or McDonald this week, or will is it a classic case of premature, er, downgrading? Let us know in the comments or on twitter (@ChookDT). Closing in on the 1000 followers, by the way. Being my 1000th probably won’t mean much to you, but it sure would make my nan proud. Twitter fiend, that lady.

155 Comments

  • Can you trade players after the partial lockout that aren’t playing tomorrow night?

  • Dempsey out. F#*k!

  • Cornelius tweeted that he ‘couldnt wait to see Dayne Zorko out on the field this weekend #abouttime’. So im hoping that he aint lying!

    • I actually was asking about him above. That is awesome news. I read somewhere earlier in the year that they thought he wouldn’t take long to come straight into the team.

      Did you want to tweet back and ask about Docherty? lol

      • Thats not good news!!! I want him to wait another week at least. I have a shortlist of all the players I want to either downgrade or upgrade, changes where needed. Him, Treloar and Couch are the main people for the forward line. They need to be coming in around round 7-8 so that we can have plenty of cash to go bang in the MBRs.

  • thoughts on ablett

  • When the hell is couch gonna play…..

  • The only one I would concider trading to Treloar would be Dickson. Just think it’s still early to make those type of trades before Dickson has made a cent. In saying that you don’t want him to be this years Cam Richardson. I know all about it, I had him nearly all year along with Lester!
    Still have Zorko and Pfeiffer to come so I’ll hand on to Dickson for a little longer to see if he can get back into the side. Let’s face it, it’s not like the Dogs have an abundance of talent in the forward line.

    Here is hoping for an easier week in DT! I’m no chance of getting any loving at home if I’m grumpy again this weekend!!! Trust me I need all the help I can get! Haha
    Good luck All… With your DT as well!!!!

  • Geez i hate CJ Bruton so bad, bloody breakers

    • Chahoooo Abercrombie’s block was the winning of the game. CJ’s three was the icing on the cake. Back to back…..to back?? Why not.

  • Thoughts on Wilkes to Treloer
    And also is is better to do one of these trades now or next week
    Clay Smith to Pfieller + DPP link in Mids
    Cameron to Pfieller

  • is having 20 trades left ok ?

  • Ive been waying up my options, and too gain some rankings on the pack ahead, I’ve thought of this, Trading Aggressively…

    Round 5 – Gazza – Murphy + about $40

    Cash left about 100k

    So in a couple of rounds time, when Coniglio is about 270k, Magner almost 300k so about Round 7,
    To Upgrade and Downgrade them back to Gazza, once he has hit his strapes again after easing back into it after his injury, So at this stage i’d be hoping he is about 560kish, as will is 97 be in his rolling 3 round average, And Gazza will become my M6 and rejoin my midfield :)

    thoughts? in this a reasonable plan? or pointless? ;)

    • Also Great Article Chook!

      And to add to my point before, Zorko and maybe even T.Mitchell, or K.Stevens maybe good downgrades.

  • Hey guys, is there a site where I can see stats from the vfl? Wanna see how Big O went cos I figure he could be a chance of playing the next two against Brisbane and Melbourne

  • Thoughts on this trade:

    Hampton to trealor

    seems that hampton is not capable of as higher scores as trealor, furthermore trealor seems to have a greater cash cow potential

    • had similar thoughts, though hamptons BE is only 10, plus he hasnt made us much money yet, would be tough to justify that trade

  • now before you condemn me, and i know trading a cow out before its ready to be slaughtered, but consider this….

    magnet to trealor

    heres my thinking.

    whilst magner has been a jet for 2 rounds and made a decent coin so far, if he continues his tagging role (and lets be honest the demons are crap and seeing he is doing a good job at it, its a high probability he’ll continue, cos taking out the opponents best helps to win) hes likely to keep getting the 60-70 scores.
    Right now, his breakeven is quite low at 24, but, it isnt in the negatives, where we wont those cows to be. Therefore his perceived maximum price we all thought he was going to get may not be reached.

    if we were to trade down to trealor now, we take the 100k or so and then we will make money off trealor when he peaks. This thought has only come from the fact that there is a large amount of rooks getting debut earlier than we had hoped, before our selected rooks have peaked. And in an ideal world we would love our downgrade target rooks to also make money for us as well.

    so I guess the question is will the combined money made from magner and trealor be more than the potential that magner could make us if we keep him?? plus the extra trade.

    and if we wait another round, and trealor pulls a good score and magner continues to tag and get 60-70…..then the money is lost.

    damn DT makes me think to much……….

    • my dilema exactly. i fear if i dont trade in trealor this week, there will be bugger all rookies from here on in. none of the 1 – 2 gamers above interest me except neale but we have 1 more week to make that decision. miles only came in because gws had a heap of mids out.

      and although magner is $210k, lets not forget he costs us only $85k (i think – cant check – computer is playing up). $125k profit isnt too bad.

      PLUS i need a fwd in my midfield.

      couch is the only other cash cow that comes to mind but we have at least another 2 weeks before he is relevant.

      • Boys, i don’t think it is such a big issue to cull a couple rookies early if it suits your team. I haven’t done it in previous years but will be this year.

        Magner to McDonald (started Greene over Mac).
        Kennedy to Sidebottom.

        Yep there’s more money to be made in both of them but there are points to be made as well. They have made almost 220K between them so far so handy. Fine balancing act with no definite right/wrong IMO.
        For me Old Mac will average very similar to Magner and i’m really keen to get Sidey (who seems to be taking over Luke Ball’s spot for the Pies).

        Also Couch, Zorko, Pfeiffer all look like handy forward options, but main cows will come thru the mids from now on.

      • “and although magner is $210k, lets not forget he costs us only $85k (i think – cant check – computer is playing up). $125k profit isnt too bad.”

        that comment is irrelevant. It makes no difference what profit we made or the starting price of a player. What matters is his potential to increase in value from his current price.

        In saying that, the decision to cull magner early to bring in treloar is definitely difficult.

        Personally I wouldnt be making the trade because Magner has shown he has an extremely high scoring ceiling for a rookie so it only takes one good week for his value to increase dramatically and I also believe that every year DT throws out some surprising rookies that debut during the year that we didnt expect to play at all or score well if they did play.

    • I don’t see this as a bad option really. It is possible that Magner will keep his role at the moment, in the coming weeks and continue to post low numbers. Cutting your costs now might be a roll of the dice that pays off, which would leave you with a spare $100k in the kitty and a decent cash cow mooing to the extreme. I guess it comes down to how many trades you have left to burn, if any.

      Treloar is risky, though from what I can gather he along with Shiel, are set to be future DT guns. I see him as a safe cash cow. Considering cashing in Cogs now, who doesn’t seem to have much left to increase and grabbing either Treloar or McDonald before the train leaves the station :)

    • thanks for thoughts guys.
      makes me think that magner->old Mac is also a good option.
      more experienced which you would think GWS will want on ground so JS potentially good.
      And even if the old fella needs a rest soonish, we would have downgraded him by then besides he’s just had a rest.
      Lose the DPP link though.

      Hmmmm. Old Mac or trealor……….. who’s the better choice?

  • What are peoples thoughts on two gamers smedts and big O to play

  • Thoughts on going Trading in Trealoar for Semdts. Or is it a waste?

    • waste. woosha loves smedts and hes only out because hes injured. trealor will prob earn you more $ but its not worth a trade

      • Why does it matter if Woosha loves Smedts??? More important for Scotty to love him i reckon. Smedts looked bloody sore when he got hurt against the hawks, saw him on the bench trying to put his jacket on after he got subbed!!!

        • oops – sorry. got my coaches mixed up. right you are – scotty loves him.

  • Currently sitting on 20 trades (Thanks to long term injuries), though weighing up the option of whether or not it is worth making one more trade or just sticking it out.

    Conigilio -> McDonald/Treloar.

    Now, I am currently leaning towards holding out and just going with what I’ve got. I have great team balance atm with my cows mooing, though Cogs isn’t set to make much and those two are potentially a lot better of. Both have a better cash growth than Cogs and having Treloar offers a handy DPP option.

    Thoughts?

    • sorry man I’m locked in the same debate!

      • Haha, all good man. Some tough decisions await.

        The way I see it, there isn’t a a great deal of potential cash cows left for the next few rounds (Hope I am wrong there though). Maybe one or two from what I can gather really. So, I’m leaning towards grabbing either of those two now, get the cash and balance the team for byes come round 11.

  • I also want to get on the Treloar train.

    But i also don’t want to cash in too early. :(

    Is the only way I can have my cake and eat it too by trading the porpoise for Treloar.

    I put porplyzia in my side hoping he would be a keeper but being a crows fan and having watched all their games I can’t see him being one.

    Thoughts?

    • I wouldn’t trade out Porplyzia just yet. Has guaranteed game time, plus a lot of cash still to be made. If you want to bring in Treloar but, consider your least likely secure rookie and trade them instead. Otherwise just resist the urge and hold out. Going to need quite a few trades come bye’s time.

    • i agree with Luke. Hold him.
      he’ll make some more yet, use him as someone to upgrade later on

  • Thoughts on C smith to Waters and T mohr to Treloar

  • I’m worried about Treloar because he’ll hardly have time to fatten up before his bye, and I already have two round 11 forwards in danger and porps.

    I need a few bucks to get Sidebottom in for Pav, so I am going Kennedy > Pfeiffer, breaking the rule that you don’t trade in a rook till after their second game.

    Because we only have two teams to go by so far, it means not knowing for a fact that Michelle is named for even his second game, let alone his third. But he looks like a player that can play for the rest of the year to me. He is 25 and won’t be leaving a stone unturned to grab his chance for an AFL career this time. He’s been made to earn his way into the team and he’s done it – I think (hope) he’ll keep it.

    Port being Round 13 bye means I can use Pfeiffer to cover guns in the first two byes (if he is still getting a game), and then upgrade him prior to Round 13.

    I have been thinking about holding off for a round so that I can ensure Pfieffer gets his third game, give Kennedy another week to fatten and give Pav one last chance to ton up, but with his b/e at 125 and Sidebottom’s at 59, getting one for the other is going to cost more, possibly more than Kennedy gains this week, especially if he is rested, which I can see happening. And to be honest I want Sidebottom’s score tomorrow because I haven’t given up on the car just yet.

    What do folk think?

    • I’m am doing something similar, Going to miss out on Treloar (intentionally) and hopefully pick up Pfeiffer next week after i see him play again to suit the byes.

  • How does Greene for treloar sound?

  • Im keen on getting barlow and treloar in at the expense of fyfe and clay smith.
    Need to win my league game this week against a mate so having fyfe and ablett with a million cash between them is not promising.
    Obviously will wait until freo team is announced but we wont be able to change if freo make another late change will we? When do they play?

  • I’ve cut my losses with dickson for treloar & a big trade in ablett to macdonald.
    I get dickson out of my team & don’t have a constant reminder every week like irons last year.
    Secondly, enables me to upgrade magner/giants crew once they have properly peaked.
    May have to trade gaz back in at some stage but probably much less than 593k, given variables such as the red vest.
    2 trades to bring a lot of cash into play, won’t go too early on upgrading my rookies & hopefully double trade macdonald to gaz later on..