Assessing the Damage: Round 4

Injuries

Gary Ablett

The big news this week is Gary Ablett and his knee. After scans on Monday, the club have said he is likely to miss 2-3 matches. Gazza tweeted that he hoped to be back earlier. Anyway – here’s our problem… to trade or not to trade?! Sensible Dream Team coaches will hold onto him. Why? If he is only out for a couple of weeks, then it’s not worth a trade. At this early point in the season, we have bench cover so we should just use them. Why should we trade him? Well, it is a knee and what happens if he is out for more than 3 weeks… nearly $600K sitting on your bench, and potentially 60-odd points per week playing a rookie. He may come back underdone. This will be a big call. For me, I am considering trading him… but it would be to Swanny or Pendles. For me to do this, I’d have to lock that in before the partial lockout. Adds another element to the whole decision making process.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/133831/default.aspx

Andrew Carrazzo

Calvin is seething, along with the thousands of Dream Team coaches with bringing in Andrew Carrazzo and only returning a sausage (1 point). Anyway, you’ll need to trade him as he will miss at least 8 weeks. If you have some cash, maybe a jump up to Scotland could be an option… otherwise, how about Greg Broughton?! Haha.

http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=133719

Others

Also we saw season ending injuries to Robbie Gray (ACL) and Gary Rohan (broken tibia). Sydney ruckman Shane Mumford was a late withdrawal last weekend due to an infection from an injection. He is in doubt this week. Michael Hurley will miss two weeks with a hamstring injury. Bernie Vince will miss up to a month with a hand injury. Plus he’s not happy with Dream Team coaches tweeting him about it.

Suspensions

The main worry from the MRP findings this week is Steve Johnson who will miss this week on a rough conduct charge. Even with a guilty plea, he will still face the week on the sidelines. The other suspension details can be found here, but if you have Justin Koschitzke or Lindsay Thomas, you’ve probably given up on DT already for 2012.

NOTE: ‘REVERSE CHANGES’ WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE ONCE THE ROUND 5 PARTIAL LOCKOUT IS IN EFFECT. YOU’LL NOT BE ABLE TO REVERSE TRADES AFTER 2:40PM AEST ON WED, APRIL 25.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on everything AFL Dream Team! @WarnieDT

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190 Comments

  • Avatar of the sandgroper

    cheers for the update, my team is decimated through injury and at this rate there will be no premos left to fill the voids in my team

  • Avatar of tom

    Thoughts
    Kennedy > Old Mac
    Sloane > Stanton

    Bench GAJ

    Will stanton get the tag soon?

    • Avatar of timmyd

      Watson had more clearances then the elite blues mids combined. I will be shocked if Watson doesn’t get the three brownlow votes for that game and also the tag in rd5.
      Stanton was good and effective, but clearances are more vital then the ‘set up play’ +6s that stanton gets. In short, Stanton’s role can be given to other players, but nobody can replace Watson. So imo first tag will always go to Watson.

  • Avatar of discomute

    Sensible coaches will hold him but you’re considering otherwise? Personally I’m torn as to

    Carrot to Suckling
    Or
    Carrot to Goddard
    Ablett to Zieball

    I just have this instinct that the knee will be more restrictive than they’ll say,…

  • Avatar of Uncle Drew

    Cheers For The Article!

    Yeah, not sure about keeping Gazza, can also be upgraded in a couple weeks to, after a couple of underdone scores, if i remember currectly his scores after his injury last year were’t that great?

    But, is 3 premo’s out of the 6 in your midfield from the Round 12 Bye, looking to be too much?
    Am thinking of bringing in Swanny…

    • Avatar of Uncle Drew

      Another Pro for Swanny is his draw up until the Bye is:

      Essendon
      Bulldogs
      Brisbane
      Geelong
      Adelaide
      Gold Coast
      Melbourne

      Which is a fairly easy draw..

      • Avatar of Uncle Drew

        and aswell Penduls isn’t looking to be 100%, so you can’t afford to have two potentially injured premo’s in your midfield

        so thoughts?

  • Avatar of GreenReddenBlacks

    Gotta love the Bernie Vince tweet and the responses!

  • Avatar of maxs gunners

    What about Birchall any thoughts?

  • Avatar of london eagles

    warnie sensible thing would be for me to keep jack redden but what would u do if u had him?

    74 against gold coast comon man ur a premo

    • Avatar of Danni

      I’ve got question marks on Redden too. With GAJ out I can’t afford to carry Reddens poor scores, need some premo numbers, fast.
      Of course, as soon as I dump him he’ll score big

      • Avatar of timmyd

        What do you guys think of Rockliff?
        His last 10 in 2011 (inc finals): 119 151 123 112 138 110 117 111 121 122
        and last 4 in 2012: 143 91 61 130
        his BE this week is 93

        I am seriously considering showing Greene (if he isn’t named again) an early exit to get me some rankings points and league wins. If rocky is back (and lets face it, with Brown returned to the forward line I don’t think rocky will be asked to head back there and score another 61), he could be a monster bargain pick.

    • Avatar of Ingoes

      he’s going to get so CHEAP.

      I’ll be all over him in a few weeks…

  • Avatar of tnargus

    I am keeping Gazza on the bench. Why? HE IS A GUN. He is seriously the best player in the comp, no doubt.

    This is my theory: Gold Coast says 2-3 weeks. Gaz says he can do better. 2 weeks of course is 14 days, the same amount of time between the game last Saturday and their game against Freo in Rd6. I think he will miss 1 match and 1 match only. When he comes back he will have some “quiet games” of 100 or high 90s, then get back to ripping everyone a new one.

    My problems lie elsewhere. Will Birchall play? If not, I have poor cover in Jackson Paine and may need to trade. Stevie J banned just as he got some form. And then there is the question of Fyfe, although I think he will play and I will keep him on ground.

    Keep Gablett. He will bite you in the ass otherwise.

  • Avatar of worldcuppa

    Warnie, I think I’ll just spend this week working on my Flipper – any tips ?

  • Avatar of Nimrod

    Warnie, great work.

    Heard anything about Courtknee Dempsey (see what I did there?)

    reckon he’ll get up for wednesday, i wasn’t surprised he was a late withdrawal at the weekend.

    Cheers

  • Avatar of BExpress

    Hey folks… Any Brissie followers out there? What has happened to Redden? He cost me top $ and returning nothing. Has his role changed from last year? Not sure whether to cut my losses?

  • Avatar of AzzDawg

    Any news on Courtney Dempsy?

  • Avatar of Nooie

    Oh crap. Didn’t know about Stevie-J! Fyfe must play! Any chances on Shaw back this week? Really hope so. Crap. Gazza missing 2-3. I reckon I’ll bench him.

    OK. I am in a real dilemma. 20 trades left, but tempted to make another two this week.
    Really worried about Clay Smith’s JS, and don’t want to miss the JMac train, with scores of 97 and 84 (i think) looks like he’s still got it! Also, I want to jump on Marty Clarke-express, I’m going to have as a keeper. Paul Bower is doing CRAP, don’t why I traded him in, but I hate him now. These trades will help me with my upgrades. It’ll free up 60K.

    Thoughts highly appreciatted.

    THANKS :)

    • Avatar of Isaac

      Sorry mate but the Clarke express is two stops down the track now. He’s not going to be a keeper, so stay off him. Get on JMAC this week though for a rookie that isn’t playing (probably Smith like you said)

    • Avatar of worldcuppa

      Not worth trading just to free up 60k – it means to use that 60k you’ll most likely need to do another 2 trades – a downgrade and upgrade simultaneously.

      Also, this year’s keepers will be the best 2 players on each line for any given set of bye rounds. That means when the Bye rounds come around, the Marty Clarkes will HAVE to be traded out even if you don’t want to – unless you are happy to munch the donut.

  • Avatar of Rhino03

    Hay guys,
    I’m really stuck on who trade in for Carrazzo, could you please help me out!!

    What do yous think of these trades:
    Toby Greene/Clay Smith/Dylan Shiel to James McDonald

    THEN

    Andrew Carrazzo to Brendon Goddard/Heath Scotland

    Please help me out and give me your thoughts!!!
    Let me know if there is any other people i can trade in for Carrazzo!!!

    Thanks Guys!!

    • Avatar of tnargus

      I’d say Smith out for JMac and bring in Goddard over Scotland (although Scotty has been doing ok too).

      • Avatar of Rhino03

        Not sure about getting rid of Smith as he doesnt give me enough cash..
        Im sort of leaning towards getting rid of greene as he will give me plenty of cash left over.

        • Avatar of tnargus

          However, if Greene picks up his form from rounds 1 and 2 he will score around 80-100 points per week, and be worth $280,000 in a fortnight.

          If Smith gets his projected 60′s over the next 2 rounds he’ll just hit $200,000.

          Your call.

        • Avatar of Chuck Norris

          Carrazzo to Goddard is a good trade but why do you need to do the other one?

          Smith, Shiel and Greene have a lot more cash to make. Why do you want to trade in McDonald that bad just because he had 2 good scores. Isn’t that the same mistake you made when you traded in Greene?

          • Avatar of dools

            +10,000 greenes already been dropped lmfao to all those plebs who wasted a trade on getting him in. going from some of these comments you’d think we all started the year with 100 trades. let me guess… you traded in whitecross a week ago and want to trade his ass out now too??

  • Avatar of Isaac

    How come nobody’s thinking of going carazzo- enright? Proven gun and is underpriced after a slow start.

  • Avatar of mfawcett

    Thoughts on Rohan to Luke Dahlhaus? Was thinking of holding onto Rohan for another week or 2 and waiting for my rookies to increase in value first but don’t know how long can hold up without trading Rohan out yet. Have Tomlinson, Kennedy and Smith in my forward line for now to hold the fort and Smedts if needed if he comes back anytime soon. Thoughts?

  • Avatar of marcus81168

    Extremely happy with my Team

    Round 1 Ranking 2351, Round 2 Ranking 16363, Round 3 Ranking 8802 and Round just gone I’m Rank 4047.

    I have Ablett and got my plans for my Mids, I am not going with what others are saying and its working well, just got to be smart with trades.

    Everyone Studies the game b4 the start of the season and there have only been 4 games played and everyone is Tradeing players out, hold trades people unless u have to trade.

  • Avatar of Linkos

    Anyone thinking of going Ablett > Callan Ward??? I thought that If I did that, pick up GAJ again after he’s had a few games of “underperformance” for someone like Magner or greene when they max out???

    Also thoughts on Shiel to Jmac?? would gain more $$$ and Jmac is a better player in the long haul

    • Avatar of Liquicity

      I like Callan Ward, but knowing Ablett it won’t take long for him to get back to his best so you may want to save the trade.
      As for Shiel and Mcdonald, Shiel still has plenty of price rise left in him and will probably improve in scores. This, as well as the fact that Mcdonald will be rested a bit over the season, makes me keen to keep Shiel.

  • Avatar of Chuck Norris

    Definitely keeping Gaz unless its a month or more.

    Any news on Fyfe? Still torn on him, not many options to go to when you already have Buddy, Robinson, Sidebottom and Martin.

    Pies and Bombers playing on Anzac Day is very annoying. The 3 players I’m considering as a replacement for Gary are all playing (Stanton/Pendles/Swan). Anyone else have this problem?!

    • Avatar of tnargus

      I am keeping Gaz. No doubt. But I do have a similar problem with the Wednesday game.

      I won’t find out if Birchall is playing till after the Anzac Day match. The cover I am using for Birch is a Pies player, who may get traded out….for another Pies player. Makes the decision whether to trade or not very difficult.

    • Avatar of Linkos

      if Fyfe is playing this week, I’m keeping him- Ross Lyon better not be a W**ker and say he is playing then pull him out..

  • Avatar of Jay

    There has been a bit of twitter talk this week with murmurs saying that Pendles may be in doubt for the ANZAC day clash. Don’t quote me on this, but just some warning regarding trades etc.

    Just on twitter, a few decent sources but nothing concrete

    Footy Tragic ‏ @FootyTragic Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    There’s also a bit of chatter about Pendlebury looking very proppy this morning…very short turn around for Wednesday #carnage

    Al Paton ‏ @al_superfooty Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    More #supercoach drama. Scott Pendlebury wore a bandage on left calf & limped around The Tan today. Also reports Sandilands missed training

    Fantasy Footy Club ‏ @Fantasy_FC Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    Scott Pendlebury has to be in some doubt after struggling around the tan today. #anzacday #afldonspies

    ludbeyheraldsun ‏ @ludbeyheraldsun Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    .@TheHeraldSun, Scott Pendlebury walks the tan this morning,bandage on left leg,slight hobble,back of players group

  • Avatar of bennja

    What will happen to GAJ price whilst he’s out? Remain the same?

  • Avatar of leetrevor81

    Popular trades after impatience from a couple sub par games….

    Lake, broughton, rockliff, Martin… Any more? Add to that fyfe who was traded out by
    Many even before it was confirmed he would miss games. Now he is coming back after one out…

    I’m pretty average at this game but I might have a shot because everyone is so impatient and burning trades…. I have kept all the above, have 24 trades and in the top 7000. I probably won’t win but pretty good position with 24 trades left for upgrades when some are down to 20 or less

    • Avatar of Chicken

      Good on you! You must have picked all the performing/playing rookies and have no deadwood on your bench.

      • Avatar of leetrevor81

        See the thing is I don’t have the BEST performing rookies, but I’m not gonna trade out a rooke because they got a 50 and someone has made thier debut and got 90…

        Because the next week the guy you trade out could easily get a 90 then the rookie you get in gets 50. Thier rookies, thier inconsistent!

        You can’t judge someones form on a couple games.

        For example I took a chance on having K Hunt in my team. I was regretting it, and thought he might get 40 every week from here on in and not make any more money for the rest of the year. I did consider trading him briefly because I thought he peaked already with a break even of 39 (from memory I think it was)….but on the weekend he gets 70 and all of a sudden his break even is down to -2

        Players who have 2 or 3 games averaging 60 could easily get a role change or a form reversal and get 100 the next week, so why do all the reasearch, put your faith in a guy to play in your team then jump off him after a couple bad games?

        Deadwood, yes I do have on my bench. Smedts, but who knows a few injuries, a couple full games ad he might start to score 60-70 a week. I also have Orren Stephenson, Jack Redden, and Tomlinson who are currently out or off a really low score. But they are rookies, you can’t expect them to play 24 games, a few injuries, more game time, and they can still get me cash. No point trading in another rookie that might drop in form or get rested, what do I gain nothing?

        • Avatar of Wingnut

          I also grabbed k hunt, if he keeps playing as an inside mid and pumps out a ton it’d be enough to have a party.

  • Avatar of The x Factor

    Who’s trading in jmac or treloar?

    I already have both! hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!

  • Avatar of Linkos

    Anyone thinking of going Ablett > Callan Ward??? I thought that If I did that, pick up GAJ again after he’s had a few games of “underperformance” for someone like Magner or greene when they max out???

    Also thoughts on Shiel to Jmac?? would gain more $$$ and Jmac is a better player in the long haul

    I also have fyfe but i think i’ll keep him – robinson would be my only other option and i don’t want to waste a trade on a premo for premo unless very necessary

    • Avatar of tnargus

      You don’t want to waste a trade on a premo for premo huh? Read your first paragraph.

      • Avatar of Linkos

        yea i screwed that up hahha

        • Avatar of tnargus

          If it weren’t for the fact that you had used 2 trades to get Ward into your team, it might be good. I’d reconstruct the process so you can get him in one. Translation: Leave Gaz on the bench, wait for your cows to be ripe for milking, then get Ward.

  • Avatar of Chuck Norris

    Saw the tweet from Bernie, bit of banter between him and Tom Lynch and Tex Walker
    Comedy gold! :

    @bvince17
    For all you geeks out there that tweet to me every week about dream team, I don’t give a stuff about my score or anyone elses score! Over!

    @texwalker13
    @bvince17 I agree there nudge – they need to pull there scones in and enjoy the game for what it’s worth!!!

    @tom_lynch27
    @texwalker13 ur obviously killing the dream team scores big fella

    @texwalker13
    @tom_lynch27 here he is!!! The bloke that has

  • Avatar of Scotty

    Decisions decisions

    Keeping GAJ

    Any ideas on weather to go Carrazzo to Goddard or Scotland,
    Both guns but this only makes the decision harder.

    • Avatar of leetrevor81

      Goddard! easy, Scotland seems to consistently score around 100 which is awesome, but Goddard is capable of getting the odd 140 or 150.

      Goddard should smash Melbourne, well that is if Magner tags Dal Santo and not him! Goddard’s last 3 scores against Melbourne are 122, 122, 132 (just doing some research on potential captains if Pendles misses)

    • Avatar of tnargus

      Yep, it’s a Goddard from me too.

  • Avatar of I Work SOLO!

    How long would it take for magner or green price to stop rising?

  • Avatar of Ashton

    Ive got 20 trades left and are looking to trade out Dangerfield for Pffifer or Trelor then trade out Clay Smith for Barlow. Then next week i will trade out Carrazo for Brougton. Good or bad Move?

    • Avatar of leetrevor81

      For me Dangerfield is a keeper. He only had 66 points on the weekend but actually played well and had 24 touches. His average is still just above 80 and he is DPP. I’m hoping that goes up to 90.

      If he has a big day and adds a few goals and a few tackles to that 24 posessions then all of a sudden he is scoring tonnes.

      If you want to get Pfeiffer in at least wait till he plays next week. If he does well again then consider him

      • Avatar of Ashton

        I don’t really want to get rid of him but if i get Treolor for Dangerfield then upgrade Smith for Barlow that means I’m basically just losing Dangerfield and Gaining Barlow then next week i will trade out Carrazo for Brougton.

      • Avatar of McScoundrel

        Danger is one of my favourite players. I have him. I got sucked in by a couple of pre-season games where he didn’t go charging into every contest like a mongrel dog but instead provided a bit of width and got a few cheap ones. After the Brisbane pre-season game, he said he was working on this aspect of his game and I thought This is Christmas. Hope is fading fast. Danger…Gun player…Crap DTer.

    • Avatar of Savabeer

      You want to trade out a fit player this week and Carrazzo next week?
      400k on the bench, add Gaz, if u have him, and there’s nearly $1,000,000.00 on the pine!

      I’d trade Carrots this week…

      • Avatar of Ashton

        yeh but if I did that Treloars price would of shot up and same as Barlows which might make it impossible to get Barlow from trading out Danger for Treloar then Smith for Micky B

  • Avatar of Jorddogga

    Gonna go with Swan as vice for the captain loophole thing…

    Chuck the ‘C’ on Goddard or Lids?

  • Avatar of maverick

    thoughts on sweet merciful jesus too treloar and then dickson to franklin. Essentially swappin sweet merciful jesus for franko and dicko 4 a playin rook.

  • Avatar of Jorddogga

    Anyone know whats going on with Smedts? Still got him rotting away on my bench, might be worth a trade?

  • Avatar of Matt

    i think gablett is a must keep

  • Avatar of Rabbit

    Calvin, when will u help this week? No stanton and need to decide between Watson and Cloke fore the loophole.

  • Avatar of Froogle

    Anyone else have Hale? Looked really good in the preseason but has been disappointing so far. He’s in my forwards now and I dont think the DPP will be useful as I don’t have another FWD/RUC. Thinking of upgrading to Chapman or waite

  • Avatar of Harps

    Good article, but i’m not sure if Ross Lyon wrote this? “no Freo players mentioned, i,e. Fyfe” lol

    Carrazzo < Hibberd, Heppell or Malcheski, I'm thinking more too one of the Dons 15 + H's

  • Avatar of GrandOldFlag

    Gray to Treloar to get some cash. Shame my gamble on Gray did not pay off, but at least it has not cost me too much.

    Cameron to Sidebottom is also a done thing. Similar price rise projection this week, suits my bye structure better and will score more points as a keeer. Forward line only needs a couple more upgrades for the year.

    Still have $211k in the bank after this so all looking good. Midfield is weak for now, so looking forward to upgrading there. Am benching GAJ for the time being

    Thoughts on these trades?

    • Avatar of Ashton

      Smart trades.
      Thats a similar thing to what I’m thinking of doing by going Dangerfield for Treloar then Clay Smith for Barlow. But how do you have so much left over cash. Is it because of your mid?
      Who’s in your mid if its so weak??

      • Avatar of GrandOldFlag

        With Ablett out, it only leaves Boyd and Jelwood as my 2 premos with a lot of rookies. Not comfortable with that, but need to be smart and only cash in the moo cows when they mature

  • Avatar of Stuie

    Sitting on a goldmine – Fyfe & Gaz + 203k. Going big here for maximum cashgrab over the course of the year.

    –This round trades–

    Gaz for Robbo (Fyfe dpp switch – boost Fwd line)
    Fyfe for Barlow

    –next round trades–

    Cornes (dependant on his VERY last chance at form) for Pfiefier
    Potentially a mid cow for Thommo or Ziebell before they go boom.

    Really want Sandy for Mummy somehow too though, but Barlow/Ziebell about to burst seems like an oppertunity not to miss, one that wont come again.

    Thoughts?

    • Avatar of Stuie

      EDIT: With the intention to bring Gaz back in once and if he hits his straps again mid season! Should still be filthy rich and highly possible

    • Avatar of Ashton

      I would probably keep hold of Gaz and Fyfey for now because Fyfe is most likely to play this week and its a waste of two trades getting rid of Gaz then getting him back soon after his short stint on the sidelines.
      With all that money left i would be looking at a huge upgrade.

      • Avatar of Stuie

        Feeling vulnerable in mids and fwd with em down and my cows are more like golden.geese – but still just off being cherry ripe for some major straight swaps.

        With you big time regarding his worth and saving trades in a way, but realistically Gaz can only go one direction in price from here so i won’t miss anything bar a single trade, and i don’t trust fyfes shoulder even if he does play. With such a high BE after already taking a massive price hit…far more risky guys.

        With a potential bargain on the boil in barlow around amidst the chaos, this could be a major win . Pretty confident this can pay off. High risk high reward people.