Awkward?

When I think of awkward I think of the following:

  • Drunkenly cracking on to a hot chick that looks vaguely familiar..then realising it is your sister
  • That time you tried on your wife’s pants, just to check if they fit and mistakenly wore them to the Gym
  • The “chick with the big adams apple” you picked up in Thailand

Ahhh yep……Awkward.

Anyway you get the drift, I hear the term awkward price bandied around a bit and it has never really made sense to me. Yes… I get the idea..and understand it, but if they are the right fit for your structure and fit in your salary cap…they aint too awkward.

Anyhoo, I thought that I would have a look at some defenders that fall into that “Awkward” $200-$300k price range and based on their numbers see whether they were the right fit

I haven’t included Hargrave or Lake… I think they have been talked up enough and I wanted to look at some players that may have not been looked at too much and spread the love to 4 players each across each bye.

I have focussed mainly on performance last season but have also included average score of any full length NAB games they have played. Obviously given the Sub structure in these games, these averages may be lower than normal (I haven’t normalised or extrapolated these scores due to TOG…I just haven’t had time). Also when referencing Projected 3 round average and BE, I have used Assistant Coach (although I love calling it Ass Coach)

When looking at 2011, a lot of these players either wore a green or red vest and for averages you will note where I have excluded them (NVA = Non Vest Average, NVG = Non Vest Games)

Players I have looked at are below.

So my rankings are as below:

1. Christian Howard -He plays for the now DT Relevant Doggies and I believe will return you a scoring range between 65-75 and will make you around $150k. Goes against my policy of picking players with 2 first names, but I am very tempted.

2. Reece Conca – I think he will have a very good year, more time in the mids or more likely on a wing should see his scores up around 80. I really don’t like the tigers early draw and would give me too many round 13 defenders, but those that remember him…and pick him will be well rewarded.

3. Mitch Golby – Had not heard about this guy a month ago, but has shown in the absence of Drummond, that Hanley is not the only run and carry player out of the back line for the Lions. Their short kicking game means that this guy could be a bolter. Ave 65-75

4. Taylor Hunt – Looks like he has bulked up a bit and is probably favourite to take Lingy’s role. May have some competition with Hogan if in the mids or perhaps Guthrie if plays back. I think he will be a consistent performer and could see a 70ish average.

5. Brodie Smith – Like most, I had this guy as a rook last year and he served me ok. Understands how to get the pill, but not sure on his JS given the crows have a few to come back. Could be worth a punt early. Ave 60-70

6. Tony Armstrong – Appeared late in the season in the Crows camp and soon became known to all. Finds the ball well. Has great numbers but hard to gauge given that we haven’t seen him pre season and playing for a new team. Ave ???

7. Jarryn Geary – Could this be his breakout year? Maybe…has shown some nice form in NAB. He looks to me like he has vest written all over him. Ave 60-70

8. Colin Garland – I am sure a few of you laughed when you saw his name…but there are worse picks out there. From what I have seen there will be a fair amount of ball in the Dees defence, with the lack of good times Grimes early…he is not the worst pick around. Ave 55-65

9.  Zach Tuohy – What is it about running half back Irishmen? Kenelly, Hanley, Clarke…will we add tuohy to the list. Showed a bit late last year with a couple of stints on the ball. Will spend some time rotating through, but think the above guys are better value for money Ave 55-65

 10.  Brad Shepphard – Is always on my radar for some reason, but has never really performed. Like most may have some more time through the mids, but don’t think that he will set the world on fire. Ave 55-65

11.  Ben Jacobs – Another guy I had last year who made me a bit of coin. He is a token Port player in the list but I do like the kid and is probably harshly scored at 11…but he wears teal…i cannot over look that. Ave 50-70

12.   Tyson Goldsack – Still snigger when I say his name. Is a serviceable backman and has never been a huge DT scorer, but he is dependable and you know what you will get. Ave 50-60

So there you have it… my look at those awkward price defenders. I know that there are a few that I have excluded…but I can’t do all of the research for you!

Are you running with any of these guys or banking on G n R to take you down to Paradise City (Sorry my late teens coming out there)

76 Comments

  • Un

  • second??? LOL

  • Oh and brilliant work rainman!
    Looking at Hargrave and Golby at the moment!

  • Got Golby at the moment, but other than the rooks, is probably the one with the biggest ? mark in my team.

  • have two of them at the moment, and lake.

    gotta risk it to get the biscuit.

  • demspey? he got a fair bit of it in the nab cup and no real questions on job security.. could definitely average around the 70-80 mark

    • Love the user name..I think he could be very good. Just couldn’t fix everyone in unfortunately

  • golby is a lock for me!

  • i do like the look of some of the mid midpricers. I like parker, mccarthy and masten. I want 2 out of 3 of them but which are the better options????

    • im going with parker and mcCarthy personally

      • I’m going mid priced madness: all of parker, masten and mccarthy!

        • I am all over Parker, have been for a month, he was my mid smokie, but alas…………cat is out of the bag

  • Nice write up dude!
    Let’s just say my backline will MAKE or BREAK me! ;-)

  • Yep, I’m with ya Gumby.

    Dempsey looks like falling thru the cracks. I’ve actually got Dempsey, Hargrave, Golby and Geary in at the minute, and decided to splurge the bulk of the funds elsewhere. Ended up buying 13 premiums and 5 GWS rooks but now only have $600 in the bank.

    Just goes to show, you don’t get much change from $8.78 M these days.

  • Nice write up rainman. Locked in Golby. Also got Hargrave and Lake but was thinking of taking the risk and switching Lake for Waters. Thoughts?

    Also got one last spot in my league if anyone is keen 159059. cheers.

  • Yeh i’m risky afew mid prices this year. Mainly in the backline. Wanted Armstrong in but no nab form has me worried about job security.

    Also alittle concerned seeing that Conca had 5 vests last year (not that i have him in my side) but it’s got me thinking the same might happen to Ellis or Morris….??

    • I think Ellis is definitely a sub candidate. Morris not so much, simply because he’s more of a lock down player, so he’d be less likely to come on and make a huge impact.

      • Thanks for you’re thoughts mate. I’m really torn between Ellis and Morris -and i’m trying to avoid sub effected players – maybe i should get rid of Darley or Bugg and get both Tigers instead of GWS.

        …then again Darley or Bugg might not be sub candiates!? haha the questions never end. NAB cup didnt give me enough!

  • Rookie upgrades so far: Callinan, Tuoy, Curnow, Magner, Mullet, Pfeiffer.

    No Gibson is worrying.

    • no couch has got my team needing more work

    • where’d you find that out?

    • Note that upgrades replacing players on long term injury list can be done at any time so there is still hope for Couch. They wouldn’t want to upgrade him till the last minute in case he got injured.

    • Gibson should be well and truly gone from the radar TBH.

  • There isn’t really a correct thread to post this is so:
    who do you think will average more: Goodes vs Goddard? (particularly the 1st half of the season)

    • Goodes fo sure. Syd have a ridiculously easy for 10 games

    • goddard was out of sorts last year but he still averaged 95. i expect him to be the highest scoring back by end of year. he plays port and gc first so i would do what it takes to get him in your starting team.

  • Excuse my ignorance, but what is the latest on Grimes? Cheers

  • nice article champ, Malceski or grimes or neither that is the questionthat is bugging me? mal’s nab form has been impressive

    • I agree with you regarding Malceski. Has looked very good!

    • Both come with a long list of injuries. Ol China Knees has really surprised me this pre season, just hope his knees last for those that are taking the punt.

  • I’ve had lenny hayes in my team all year but recently got rid of him as im worried that he may get the vest in the first few rounds as he is eased back into match fitness? Does anyone lese think this may happen?

    • I have had that theory all pre season. I wouln’t expect them to release Lenny 100% till about round 6-7.

  • there are that many mid-pricers that i’m tempted to get rid of goddard… not sure whether he’s worth his current price tag!

    • He’s priced under 100 a game. How many backs are a chance of getting that much for a start? Next question how many could go over it?

      I think out of 3 that might get there he’d be the one to clear 105 and then some

  • Golby Vs Lake??

    I had lake but all this talk of Golby has got my ears pricked!

  • Thoughts on what say Golby/hargrave willl average? Is it worth getting one of them over Clarke or another rookie?

    • I reckon they’ll both average no less than 80. Considering they’re priced at around 50 they should make you a tidy profit while also scoring better from the start (and with better job security) than most rooks. They certainly won’t average any less than 60, so will at least hold their value. Best case scenario is that one or both of them ends up averaging 90+ and turns into a keeper.

      • Thanks for the feedback, just alittle nervous & pumped with the season coming up whether to choose 2 mid pricers or gun and a rookie.

  • thank you Rainman, just remember everyone be brave with your picks because you never know when you might find the next Matt Suckling

    • Or David Astbury……

      • yeah he was a massive preseason teaser…and i fell for it :(

      • Such the pessimist. As I recall there were some pretty handy mid pricers at the start of last year named Nathan Fyfe and Liam Shiels.

        • and Liam Anthony and Paddy Ryder and Rhys Palmer and…

          Oh and Ryan Hargrave from the Dogs was way under what we knew he could score too…

        • And Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden

      • hahaha i know right ;) , PurpleArmy you shouldn’t of fallen for it because he’s a tall key back and not many of them score well, you should know that, see you in league x

    • Spot on Emm, back your gut.

  • Great stuff Rainmen, not keeping 1 or 2 up your sleeve?
    ;)

    • He is a beautiful man TKOL! Sharing the love!!

    • Hmmmm…maybe? In all seriousness I think defense may well be the key to the FJ this year. The right mix of premos, mid prices, awkwards and or rooks will make for the right recipe.

      So what is the perfect mix ….well…only time will tell.

  • Nice work, i understand where you are coming from in your opening akward scenarios. However they would be evn more akward and plausible if you can imagine your mate staring at you and wih a determined voice ” uh … NO!!!”

    Giddy up hargrave, porp, and bate!!!!

  • I’ve got Golby, Hargrave and Conca! At least one of them must turn premo :/

  • and Liam Anthony and Paddy Ryder and Rhys Palmer and Andrejs Everitt and…

    Oh and Ryan Hargrave from the Dogs was way under what we knew he could score too…

  • conca wont get vested this year so he should average at least 70 – 80. my team is set except for:
    conca and fwd rookie
    or
    porpus and back rookie.
    any advice would be much appreciated.

  • Just what I needed Rainman!! A little nudge in the right direction or a push off the cliff depending how we go! Haha.
    So I’m settling on Golby and Hargrave. I think Lake is going to spend a lot of time in a lock down role with Williams and Morris out. Ive been watching Howard all preseason just haven’t got that bit of extra cash for him.
    So that’s it for me locked and loaded!! Well until just before lockout when I panic!!! Ha ha
    Thanks again Buddy! Great work as usual!!

  • Hargrave and Lake can both put in a stinker, but for the price and the ceiling you would be mad not to have one. Hargrave for me! Howard was in for a bit but he seems likely to put in more stinkers than the other 2.

    Not sold on Conca so willing to pass on him and suck eggs if he goes gang busters. Golby is interesting and might wriggle his way in yet.

    Nice write up there man!

  • Who are the top ten foward rookies?!

  • Got Hargrave and Golby and Parker LOCKED!!! What are peoples thoughts on Heater or Heppell??? Really doing my head in!!! Got 2 spots left in a Tigers V Dockers league…699246. Great write up by the way!!!

  • If a player is a likely keeper (Hargrave) at 250K I can see the benefit, they usually have good job security and should at the worst go up in price and turn into premiums come upgrade time, but players around 350K (Danger, J Voldt & Hayes) and who are still only a possible kepper is what I really think an awkward pick is. Will they outscore rookies by at leat 20-30 ppg? Or will they be dead money sitting in my team when I could have picked a cheap rookie making me cash and a real proven premium player scoring me tons instead of 2 mid priced players?

  • Any opinions on Phil Davis? I know he has no real fantasy history and his career is only made up of 18 games. But there should be plenty of ball in the Giants backline and his JS is rock solid. Do people see him being used purely as a shut down defender, or think he could mirror bock to a lesser extent, due to the amount of ball in the backline…

  • Thanks Rainman.

    Lucas & McLean from Carlton are both tempting but awkward.