Versus – Round 1: Robinson v Martin

With the generous bestowal of MID/FWD DPP in 2012, these two gents will be among the most popular forward line options for coaches. Effectively having an additional midfielder sitting in your forward line; this appears to be a recipe for success for coaches in the upcoming season.

Poised at a similar price with high potential, Robbo and Martin may well be fighting it out in your team for that all important DPP spot. Many will opt for both; or may be considering others like Sidebottom, Beams, Fyfe or Zaharakis. However, it is my belief that these two offer the most upside in what will hopefully be a great year for both young players.

Mitch Robinson

Price: $456,200
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 22

2011 Details
Avg: 92.2
Games played: 21
High Score: 141
Low Score: 39 (sub affected)
No. 100 + scores: 8

Dustin Martin

Price: $442,500
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 20

2011 Details
Avg: 89.5
Games played: 22
High Score: 141
Low Score: 59
No. 100 + scores: 7

Scoring Potential

In 2011, both players showed they have a similar high ceiling of 141 and are capable of dominating games with their physicality and their ability to accumulate possessions. Robinson had a mixed start to the year, scoring 2 x hundreds and bottoming out during his season turning 39 against Geelong in round 9. From there he scored 6 tons and averaged 99.3 from round 10 to the Blues Semi-Final loss to West Coast. Martin had a slightly different year, starting off in a blaze of glory with scores of 98, 94, 113, 141 and 119 in the first 6 rounds. Whilst he had a slight lull in the latter half of the year, he finished off strongly with 3 consecutive scores above 90. Even with his sub affected 39 against Geelong, Robinson had a better year scoring wise and takes the edge here – however expect his counterpart to surge ahead in 2012.

Durability

Due to both players being quite young and only coming into their 4^th and 3^rd seasons respectively, it is difficult to confirm any real durability; however it is worth noting that Robinson played in all but 1 of Carlton’s games in 2011, with Martin not missing a single one – chalking up 22 games to go with his 21 in his debut season. Both players have promise to become very durable and are fit enough to run out a whole season. However if I had to choose, I’d say Martin has the edge here as he’s played 43 out of a possible 44 games in his first 2 seasons showing that he won’t likely miss a game in 2012. There is also the risk that Robinson may be suspended or injured due to his kamikaze playing style and hard at it approach.

Value

As two midfielders able to be chosen in the forward line, both players represent great value as they head into (what should be) their true ‘breakout’ years. With both capable of; and expected to average between 95 and 105, we can safely pick either of the two knowing it’s unlikely they’ll be this cheap again. I’d say Martin presents more value than Robinson as he should get more opportunities in his team; whilst I’m expecting him to turn out a higher average for 2012.

Health/Fitness

Word out of Carlton is that Mitch Robinson has returned from the break stronger and fitter than ever; and is set for an even bigger year after last year’s 2^nd half breakout. Martin has also come back fitter, however is looking leaner than last year – whilst also adding some more muscle to his frame. Expect both boys to make a bigger impact on the AFL stage this year with another year under their belts. It’s also handy to note that Martin is streets ahead of where he was last year; so with a better fitness platform coming into 2012, he will be ready to make a lasting impact from the get go.

Team Draw

Carlton appear to have the better draw in 2012, with the only troublesome games in the opening half of the year a clash with Collingwood in round 3; and back to back away games against Geelong and West Coast in rounds 11 + 12. Robinson should also end the year well, playing Brisbane, Essendon, Gold Coast and St Kilda for the DT finals.  Richmond has a slightly worrying opening to the year, having to play all 8 finalists from 2011 in the first 10 rounds. Expect Martin to still get plenty of the ball; however at times he may struggle in a team that is still improving. Like his opposite number here, he has a great finish to the year; playing Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Freo, Essendon and Port in his final 5 games for the year.

Conclusion

Whilst Robinson appears to be a great option with his DPP, value and expected increase in output for 2012; Martin can be considered the safer pick out of the two. Playing against the best of 2011 so early will give him a chance to really step up and prove himself on the big stage. With a good price and plenty of upside, Dustin Martin will be among the most picked players in 2012. As they share the same bye in what appears to be a dreaded round 13 for coaches; many will be sceptical about picking both in their teams to start with. However barring injury or suspension, expect these two to both be inside the top 10 scoring ‘forwards’ for 2012.