Pre-Season Brownlow Bargains 2012

This stage of the year is the best time to take a stab at a Brownlow Bargain. Check out our best bets for the upcoming season.

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Calvin:

Scottie Thompson @ $51

As we all know, Scottie Thompson has one hell of an easy draw this year. He plays the GWS, Suns and Port twice and in my book that adds up to 18 votes right there!

Sam Mitchell @ $9

I’m not a huge Sam Mitchell fan, but with the Hawks getting better and better he will certainly poll well just like last year when he nearly won the thing despite being suspended. He polled 30 votes… this would have won him the Brownlow in any other of the 14 seasons leading up to this one. He’s a ball magnet right under the umpire’s eye!

Roy:

Michael Barlow @ $41

Over a career spanning just 22 games and 9 of them on the back of  a return from serious injury, Barlow has managed 12 Brownlow votes, showing his work is not going unnoticed from the umpires. From all reports, he has been smashing it on the track and looks set to have an even greater impact than his rookie year where he was right up there in the count until breaking his leg.

Gary Ablett @ $11

Gazza was not expected to poll many votes last year in a team that struggled for a win but he proved the doubters wrong (23 votes). This year, he will be playing for an improved team that has been gifted a nice draw. It also appears that he has been able to spend a lot more time on the track during the pre season this year, indicating he will smash it from the first bounce.

Warnie:

Lance Franklin @ $41

I see the Hawks as a huge chance to finish top 2 in 2012 and riding on that hope is the big Budwood. My brain massively says no. I’ve had him plenty of times in Dream Team, this man give away more free kicks than anyone else and is a constant suspension worry. Buuutttt… if he can get through a full season, he will be a key reason why the Hawks might be top 2. Chance for 100 goals again? Maybe. Hopefully umpires and see how valuable a big man can be to a team and offer up votes to Buddy. At $41, he is ‘good value’.

Bryce Gibbs @ $56

I can’t believe Roy didn’t put Gibbsy in here before me. Well, to be honest… my safe bet would have been Gazza, soft draw and all. But I’m liking the value in Bryce Gibbs. Yes, there is Juddy and Murphy that will take a whole heap of votes away from him, and rightly so. But if Gibbs can play that midfield role – as outlined in the Deck of DT on him and the media talk – then he is every chance to get votes. I don’t know. It might just be because a mate did a multi-bet when Gibbs was paying over 100-1 with the Blues making the top 4 and Roy was excited about it. I’m way too easily led.

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18 Comments

  • Sportingbet already have odds for Round 1. Better get on Sydney to beat GWS before they shorten from $1.02.

    In all seriousness, I might ride a multi from now with me picking 8 winners for Round 1. Funny thing is, I bet I get more tips right now on January 12 than what I would in 79 days time when I know a lot more.

  • Midfielder from a top four team. Selwood, Sandilands or Pendlebury maybe.

    I saw in the paper today someone put $100 on Patrick Dangerfield @ $251. Now that’s putting faith in pre-season reports!

  • Hey Calvin, 18pts for Scotty……more like 16, with SMJ pinching the two 3s….lol

  • Goddard at $46 is pretty damn tasty… May have already got on him when sportsbet opened him at $55 though…

  • without taking odds into account, i would get on gazza

  • Jobe Watson? was flying last year leading the Brownlow at half way until the injury hit…

    When we win its usually because of Watson and the umps know it!

  • I like to load up now rather than later… odds drop too quick once dudes have good game.
    Got $30 on Gazza and $20 on Thomo….

    Oh and by the way… top 3 you get 25% of the offered odds.
    Gazza…. $2.75 a place and Thomo $12.75! Bargains I reckon

  • how about rocky bris lions;sure to get votes most weeks;with plenty of two and three vote games
    cant give you the sp but IMO
    the best bet outside VIC.But does that give an even chance against the melb .
    i think players outside vic should get a10% loading

  • My money would be on Gazza and Mitchell at $9 is good value. Murphy should also finish top 3/5 imo

  • Ablett. Will get a vote every week, will be better this year, brilliant effort last year guiding his young team

  • Would of thought Dal Santo would have had a mention!? $20 not bad odds!?

  • Micky Barlow looks like a good smokie, in the 14 games he played he grabbed 12 votes. But yeah GAJ looks the goods right now, getting runner-up with 26 votes in a team that only won 3 games for the year shows how awesome the baldyman is. I’ll have a Pineapple on him anyday

  • Thoughts on rory Sloane as a smokie at $301 (25% for top 3) ? Is a real outsider but he is a gun player after all.

    Also, thoughts on Kurt tippet for the Coleman at $81? Might be ready for a breakout year and with the crows easy draw…

  • Picked up Rocky at $251!! Polled the equal most votes at brisbane last year, so if brisbane can do a WC he could be a chance. I would have had him at $25, non-Vic guys are always better value