Dream Team Stock Market – R20

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Wow, last weekend was one of the biggest I’ve seen for Dream Team scores, with some hefty numbers popping up around the traps. Congrats to the coaches out there who maxed out over 2600 – brilliant! The best bit is that the last few weeks have made those miserable 1900-par rounds magically disappear from memory, until I reminded everyone just then…

Good footy to be had too. West Coast consigned the Doggies to a tough loss in a tight finish, with Razor Ray typically and inexplicably asserting his presence at crucial points to affect the game. Our few Melbourne ‘premiums’ had an atrocious day out, with none cracking the ton. With the Bickley-coached Crows getting over Port, should we expect to see Viney’s Dees upset Carlton this weekend?

Homework is the key at this point. Check out your league’s likely finals draw and look at how it might pan out. You’ll soon work out how you’re going to go, whether you’ll go through to the Prelims, whether you may have to take the double chance, etc. This will help you map out your finals campaign and help you plan how to best utilise your remaining trades.

With numerous players topping 120+ scores, we had a full bear market this week. A few sliders not only arrested their forecast price falls, but managed to turn their value movement positive, eg Jelwood and Priddis. With such growth across most stocks, the Bargains list is sadly very thin this week. Alrighty then, let’s crunch some numbers!

Sell, Sell, Sell

All of these rooks have been good cash cows for us this season. They have peaked and are forecast to stabilise in value for the rest of the year. The stark reality in our fantasy football world is that they aren’t premiums who will return consistent 90+ scores for us, making them fair game for a cash-in downgrade or a trade-plus-cash upgrade, as long as you aren’t relying on these guys exclusively for cover.

Nick Lower $309,100 UP$7,000 (UP$216,600) BE110. Yes, Lower does run through the middle and yes, he has racked up a few big numbers, but apart from that huge 130, his recent scoring range is 60-70. His value chart shows a couple of moderate bell curves and forecast to plateau at the $300k mark after a projected drop of $5,100 next week.

  • Stock tip: Sell any time now and gain a massive $210k+.

Trent McKenzie $301,600 DOWN$11,900 (UP$204,000) BE102. The Cannon has produced a last five of 64, 72, 81, 93, 122. While this is a very good scoring range, Trent’s output has been declining steadily, which is reflected in his value. With a BE of 102 this week, he is projected to drop $7,500 next week, following a drop of $11,900 this week. His forecast value is set to steady at just under $300k.

  • Stock tip: Plump for offloading this week for a delicious $204k gain.

Matthew Wright $237,500 UP$3,200 (UP$145,000) BE76. Wright has shown glimpses of good DT scoring, making him a handy pickup for those coaches who have him, with recent scores of 62, 50, 86, 22 and 99. If you are looking at cashing in, his long-term forecast value will stay at around the $230k mark.

  • Stock tip: Bank a substantial $145,000 if you sell this week.

Tom Liberatore $227,800 DOWN$5,700 (UP$135,300) BE71. We expected much from lil’ Libba after a very strong start to the season, but he disappeared for a while to return with 44 and 66. To be fair, he was recalled for tough games against Sydney and West Coast. A look at his forecast shows his value should stay at around $220k+ for the rest of the season.

  • Stock tip: Cash him in this week and gain a respectable $135,300.

Dion Prestia $250,400 UP$13,700 (UP$121,900) BE59. Prestia’s last five have actually been pretty decent: 72, 67, 92, 74 and 49. His slightly increased output and relative consistency have seen his value peaking in time for a finals trading flurry. His value is forecast to taper off to $230k by R24, so he is peaking.

  • Stock tip: A handy $121k earner if sold off this week.

On The Up

Andrew Gaff $232,700 UP$43,300 (UP$84,200) BE7. Gaffy popped another ton last weekend against the Doggies in his best game so far this season. That big effort has his value skyrocketing yet again, with a projected rise of $18,000 next week and a forecast top-out at $260k after R21. Considering the opportunities Worsfold is giving him at the moment, he may provide excellent cover for the fortunate 5% of coaches who have hung on to him.

  • Stock tip: Sell after R21 and put away a tidy $110k.

Keiran Harper $191,500 UP$19,400 (UP$99,000) BE20. The slow-burning Harper still has a bit of earning left in him with a 77 in his rolling average. He has produced a decent scoring range in the 50s and 60s in his last four. His price is forecast to peak after R20 at just over $200k with a projected increase of $10,100 next week, making him an almost-ready-to-trade commodity.

  • Stock tip: A neat gain of around $110k if sold next week.

Hayden Jolly $183,800 UP$18,600 (UP$86,200) BE41. After only five games, Jolly has shot up to $183,300 and is forecast to top out at $210k+ in R24. His graph shows a steady increase and if the kid gets a few more games, he’ll soon be ready to flip for a tidy profit.

  • Stock tip: Sell after R21 for $200k and gain a quick-fire $100k+.

On The Slide

Matt Suckling $343,400 DOWN$25,100 (UP$130,800) BE132. Playing in the downpour and slush out west last weekend clearly did not suit Suckling (or Birchall), and a last three of 63, 76 and 83 has his value dropping off with a projected fall of $12,600 next week. We know what a high ceiling he has and the Hawks have a decent run over the next few rounds. This makes Suckers a prime upgrade target for the first weekend of finals!

  • Stock tip: Buy after R20 for around $330k.

Stefan Martin $355,700 DOWN$7,500 (UP$210,400) BE124. Don’t be too worried about Martin’s 56 against a rampant Geelong; his five previous to that were 101, 113, 92, 99 and 114. His value is projected to drop by $10,100 next week and, interestingly, is forecast to bottom out at $320k by R24. Like the Hawks, the Dees have a reasonable DT finals run – West Coast, Richmond, Gold Coast and Port. He’s a unique option who has proven to be pretty reliable with his scoring.

  • Stock tip: Bring him in next week for $345k-ish.

Blue Chip Bargains

Grant Birchall $334,900 DOWN$12,600 (UP$13,600) BE106. He was on the Sliders list last week and he looks to have bottomed out, making Birch a very good ‘in’ if you need to pull a DEF upgrade this week. With an average of 90, he is not likely to let you down. Pair him up with Suckling in your back line and you have two Hawks defenders who will play kick-to-kick all day long…

  • Stock tip: Get on now or next week for around his current $335k.

Jed Adcock $263,800 (UP$1,300) BE33. Jed looks like he’s getting his touch back after a 96 and 79 in his last two outings and spending some time in the middle in his last game. If you trust him to maintain or better his current average of 83 for the rest of the season, his value is down to just about his starting price and his low BE of 33 has his projected increase estimated at $13,100 next week.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week before his value shoots up next week.

In Review

Last call folks, here we are at our last league game! If you’re looking at trading this week, it should only be to set your team up for your finals run or if you’ve copped an LTI. If you’ve been desperately hanging on to your trades for the finals, hopefully your dogged determination will pay off over the next few weeks. If you’ve been trigger-happy and are starting to run out of trades, then I fear that you may be in for a bit of pain!

Have a good read and re-read of Roy’s Trade Talk and the associated chatter and run the numbers over some of the names in this analysis to line up your ins and outs. You should be in the midst of your plan of attack for the finals, so stick to your guns. Make sure that every single trade counts to your team’s success and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

68 Comments

  • Hey guys what does everyone think about Knights as a 7th forward? under his new coach last week he scored 114 and i’m wondering if this is a sign of things to come. What does everyone think about him and what will he average from here on in as he is only 255k and looks like a bargain. Thanks.

    • Roy might have bit the right bullet, but he has a new role under new coach, but now we need to hope he’s stays there! He will probabaly average 90ish.

      • Yeah thats what i’m thinking, if he can average 90 or so that would be great as a 7th forward. I think i will take a punt on him as it will allow me to go poupolo to fisher and keep fisher as an 8th defender to cover for enright and gibbs when they have their byes in rounds 22 and23.

  • Top Article

    I still need to trade Heath Shaw out and your article really got me thinking wether i should trade to Birchall this week or wait a week and get Suckling next week.

    Any one reckon ones a better choice than the other??

    • Suckling is a gem! If you make it To grand finals they play Goldcoast, either one would be great….

  • My finals trade talk:

    Round 22: Bartel to Mitchell
    Chapman to best foward

    Round24: Heppel to Birchall

    • Yeh good trades.
      I think it is imperative you head into the finals with atleast 3-4 trades left and some decent coin.

    • Very interesting you want to trade Chappy to the “best forward”.
      Chapman has had a quieter year but is still 4th of ave/game in the forward………only 0.21ppg behind Fyfe, who is 2nd on the list!!!
      So Fyfe has had a great year and Chappy a sh*t one and they basically averaging the same………..amazing what expectation does to peoples vision!!!

      • Fyfe has been consistent, doesn’t really know how to score under 90.

        Chappy was like that last year except it was 100. This year he’s done a serviceable impression of a slapper’s g-string – up and down a lot.

        A player’s average only tells you so much

        • @Ingoes
          Not sure you have checked their stats mate, they are fairly similar this year.
          Both 9 x 100’s, both have score under 90 4 times.

          Agree Chapman has been disappointing this year but thats due to expectation, and Fyfe has been very good.
          Personally i wouldn’t trade Chapman out and not really sure who this bloke was expecting to trade him too!!!

          Not sure what more you want from an average mate, aren’t we all trying to pick the blokes with the highest average per game??!!

  • 1 trade left with $79700 left. I have:

    Def: Gibbs, Goddard, Delidio, Enright, Fisher, Heppel, Adcock (Waters, Lower, Puopolo)
    Mids: Swan, Boyd, Dal Santo, Thompson, Ablett, Hodge (Bartel, Mzungu, Hibberd)
    Ruck: Cox, Smith (Lobbe, McCulloch)
    Fwd: Fyfe, Pavlich, Franklin, Goodes, Petrie, Sylvia, Knights (Smith, Lynch, Howe)
    My Def and mids both have 1 premium on the bench but i dont like the thought of having zac smith in finals.

    Thinking:
    Smith – Mumford / Luenberger / McEvoy / Hille
    or
    Sylvia / to better premo
    or
    Lynch / Howe – someone averaging mid 70’s
    Thoughts?

    • Sylvia – O’Keefe

    • Smith to Mumford for me. Mummy has the best run home out of the rucks and cheaper than McEvoy. Good chance Sylvia will be let back in the midfield without Bailey and has a good finals run. Besides his 72 was pretty good considering the thumping they got!

      • Yeh I was thinking Mumfy is the best option. I just dont want to get to the finals and play someone with goldstein, sandy or mcevoy and not have anyone that can compete with them. Mumfy can pop out some big scores where as smith is limited to 60’s to 80’s and as to go all the way i think i need something better. He’s pretty unique as well as only 4% of teams have him.

  • FMDT – No Boyd ($417), Gablet($393) and need a win

    Which of the two should I trade out and which of the following would you select: ($50k in bank)

    1) Redden
    2) Priddis
    3) Mitchell
    4) Other

    Currently mids – Swan, Pendles, Dal Santo, Gibbs (Mzunga, Jacobs & Bennell)

    Thank you

    • If u NEED a win, I’d go unique to ensure your getting free points.

      Redden is hugely underrated, I’d pick him up if I was you!

  • Quick question gents….

    Time for Lower to go I think…. Birchall or Broughton or even Sammy Fish? 293K in the bank…

  • Shaw – Fisher
    Shaw – Birchall

    which one does everyone think?

    • Fisher – Proven gun that is rarely off song.
      Birchall- A bit of a passenger… wont go to well when Hawks aren’t playing well. Same with Suckling.

  • What are you guys thoughts on Brady Rawlings, with scores hovering around the 40s in the last 3 weeks is it time to trade him considering bye in rd 21?

    4 trades left and $206,100 in the bank

    Gibbs Goddard Delidio Birchall Rawlings Lower Hibberd (B Smith Toy Golby)

    Gonna go Hibberd to Fisher this week and see how rawlings scores before finals.

    Thanks

    • Never understood the fascination with Rawlings.

      Finals bye and never been an out and out premium. Always teased but never been there in the past and prob never will.

      • Thanks for your help!

        • Yeah your plan seems ok, you’re probably gonna have to get rid of Rawlings sooner or later aswell considering your weak bench.

  • Lower > Adcock. Only 3 trades left, will be my 8th Back but will need him playing every week due to finals.

    Seems like a no brainer…

  • Can somebody post the dt finals structure or direct me to where I can find it

  • OK so im top of the ladder, and playing 2nd in a blockbuster!!

    we are neck and neck for points so the winner will take first spot.

    I have $33,000 in the kitty and 4 trades left.

    I plan to get rid of heppel and was thinking that it might possibly be the week to do so.

    Firstly, should I trade this week.

    Secondly, Suckling or Birchall.

    • If you’ve locked a top 4 spot I don’t see the need to trade (in my leagues I have either top 4 or 8 locked therefore not trading). You’d be better off having the advantage of a trade a week for finals. Secondly Suckling if you were to do so.

      • I plan on possibly using both my last trades this week just to stregthen team for finals and catch players at there price now given I have 80000 in the bank.

        Thinking muzngo to Scotland for dpp the bewick to didak if he’s named this week. This will cover my Geelong players second week but I’m going all out to win the first week sitting 4th but clearly the better team in my league leading total points by a 1000

  • Hey guys, any news on MISSY HIGGINS? Some are predicting that he might not play again this season which has got me worried.

    Firstly, which trade should I make:
    HIGGINS (if injured) -> N VOLDT
    or
    ZAHARAKIS (finals bye) -> FYFE/GOODES

    Secondly, should I make this trade this week or later?

  • Some interesting outs this week………Enright, Sylvia, Prestia, Waters.

  • Loving my trades in defence this year:
    Adcock->Duigan->Shaw->Ellis.
    Now Ellis is injured and it looks like I have to trade Adcock back in.

  • 2 trades left – Which 2 do I upgrade out of:

    Zac Smith, Mzungu and Nick Lower.

    They are my only weak spots. Then my teams finished.

  • HAY GUYS

    Lobbe or Zac Smith?

  • Sylvia out, please explain!

  • heyy guys, How do you work out the BE of a player

  • Hi Gents

    After a little friendly or in some case not so friendly advice, am a bit of a novice at the whole dreamteam comp but am travelling pretty well at the moment I am sitting top 4 in 3 comps & 5th is my 4th comp.
    I still have 7 trades left & 71k in the bank.
    Team is:
    Gibbs (DEF)
    Goddard (DEF)
    Heppell (DEF)
    Suckling (DEF)
    Lower (DEF)
    Nicoski (DEF)
    Otten (DEF)
    Deledio (DEF)
    Adcock (DEF)
    Wilkinson (DEF)
    Swan (MID)
    Judd (MID)
    Shiels (MID)
    Priddis (MID)
    Swallow (MID)
    Crameri (MID)
    Didak (MID)
    Prestia (MID)
    Gaff (MID)
    Cox (RUC)
    Kreuzer (RUC)
    Smith (RUC)
    Gawn (RUC)
    S Johnson (FWD)
    Pavlich (FWD)
    Cloke (FWD)
    Petrie (FWD)
    Yarran (FWD)
    Rioli (FWD)
    Mzungu (FWD)
    Goodes (FWD)
    Matera (FWD)
    Callinan (FWD)
    Goodes (FWD)

    Should I be getting rid of those rookies I have made $ on this week, freeing up some more $ to pick up better trades for this week?
    I was thinking of getting rid of Prestia & Otten or should I be getting rid of injured players, any advice or citism will be noted.

    Cheers

  • Who should I upgrade Z Smith to?
    Can affrd anyone. Have Cox ( Bailey, Lobbe).
    Thoughts on McEvoy, Leuenberger, Goldstein(Bye?), Mumford, Jacobs.
    Thoughts appreciated.

  • Hey everyone,

    Got myself in a pretty good position going into Finals, 2nd in my main league and top 8 finish in all my others.
    9 trades left and 34,000 in the bank.

    Looking to really make the most of those trades (gives me a double trade pretty much every week!)

    This week looking to bring in Pendelbury to my mids (which will give me Boyd, Swan, Pendels, Ablett, Bartel and Montagna at full strength)

    Not sure who to trade out though: Heppell or Swallow?

    Swallow gives me a few extra $$$s, but he’d be super handy on my bench.

    Heppell slightly less value but has a finals bye.

    Also, I’m going Harris (GCS) to Riley (ADE) to fund the Pendels trade.

    Thoughts? I’m leaning towards Heppell, but still unsure.

    Appreciate the help :)