Get Off The Bench: Round 16

Well well well, wasn’t last week bloody hard to pick these blokes!  I copped a heap last week for not having Isaac Smith as the only bloke you should play, I was concerned about his form against a good side.  And what do ya know, he struggled his way to a 53.  I only mention this as I reckon it is about the only time I have been right all year!!  However, I did rate him higher than The Gu who pulled in a lovely 108 against the Suns.  I was also bagged for having Krak higher than Smith, and he did score better, alright, it was only by 5 points, but as they say… a win is a win and I will take it!  I guess what I am trying to say is, these blokes are inconsistent and that is what makes this selection of your last guys on the field the hardest one in DT if you ask me! 

Now this week we are “helped” out a bit by it being a multi bye round, the only help that gives us though is that this week we have fewer choices that we can make!  Adelaide, Fremantle and Melbourne are all sipping cocktails by the pool this week and for some they will probably score better than they have been on the field!

Give the kid a run

That is exactly what the owners of Rohan Bewick are screaming at Vossy, the kid has copped 6 vests in his 11 games and in his last 3 games has had 73, 70 and a Green 40. Now the poor kid has been dropped for this week.  Pat Karnezis is another new guy up there and had his first Non Vested game this week and pulled in a 64.  I watched all of this game (it was painful towards the end for me though) and he really looked good, I didn’t know too much about him before then, but he did ok.  Jesse O’Brien seems to be back in favour and has had a couple of 60’s in the last couple. 

Simon Buckley returned with a 91.  He has had a couple of weeks off (one from the bye) and before he left he was scoring well with a couple of 70’s and a 98.  He should certainly be playing, he has only had one green and one red vest so far and from memory, the red was an injury.  Teammate Andrew Krakouer put in his lowest score since round 4 last week but it was still a servicable 58.  Certainly not what I expected, but I have changed those expectations now, I think he is a 55 – 80 kind of player now, however, he is up against the Roos where you would expect a massive score (like the Mad Irish Pirate does for Swannie and Pendles this week), but in round 2 when they met he could only net a 48, BUT that was Green Vested and at the Dome, so on the G, I think he will be a better option to light it up.

The Bombers, well stuff me if they didn’t cost me some cash this week!  Not only that, Heppell  and Hibberd continue to stuff me up, so I won’t predict which one will do better this week, odds are that with all the bye action you are going to need to play both if you have both anyway.  Heppell has certainly come ood after a bit of a slump with 81 and 100 in the last two and he has handed the slump to Hibberd who has had 51 and 68 in the last two!  Last time these two played Richmond they had 108 and 80.

Sam Iles has shown a good run of consistency lately, his last 6 have an average of 72 with a high of 92.  Certainly worthly of a game.   Didn’t the week off and rest do Trent McKenzie the world of good!  He belted out a 122 against Freo.  I do have reservations though as his previous game was a 49 (his worst score).  Hopefully that was a blip on the radar.  His mate Danny Stanley has been pumping out the good scores with another 90 last week to bring now his 4th game in a row of 79 or better.  David Swallow will be a lock for those teams that have him I would suspect this week on the back of another good performance of 88.  To round out the Suns  in this section we have ZMith.  Be careful with him give that injury.

Once again, put Shane Savage to the top of the list.  Right next to him you can put Puopolo who is continuing to rip in the good scores.   The chipping around the backline game is really helping him get the points.  Now Isaac Smith is still a fair bet to score well, just don’t expect 138 out of him everyweek, I think we have learnt that now.  However, they are playing Brisbane at Hawk Park so I am expecting at least 70+ from him.  Breusty is also maintaining his formwith another 68 last week.

Nick Duigan has come back from injury.  He is safe to play, but not as safe as he would normally be.  He may even cop a vest?  So be wary. 

Once again we have a Power player worth having, Lobbe has really shon in the absence of Brogan.  He has a 95 and 94.  He is up against Big Boy McEvoy this week, but his other scores were against Goldstein and Leuenberger, so he has done well.

Luke Dahlhaus is continuing to impress me.  The boy just needs a haircut.  His scores I do like that is for sure, since his first game vest he has had a 76, 68 and a 71.  The kid is a goer and that is what you want in this game.

 Scraping the barrel are we??

Sam Sheldon has had two 60’s in the last two but has been inconsistent before that with a 17 in there for good measure (un vested too!).  Another that is starting to drop from the top is Ben Jacobs, he had a 47 after his 96 so inconsistentcy is starting to creep in.

Zach Tuohy is a name I have seen in a few teams of late, and I can’t understand why, He has only had one good score and that was  a 73, other than that he has had 3 scores out of 5 under 40.  Stewart Crameri had a good one, but he has been a bit inconsistent and has been in and out of the team.

Brandon Matera copped the Green vest last week as we all suspected and only knocked out 30 points.  If he plays this week, make sure you study the team and make a good assessment whether you think he will get it again.  Dion Prestia is a bit up and down still, his last 4 unvested games read 79, 28, 66, 49.  Certainly nothing there that makes me think he is a safe bet.  Tom Lynch is another that I worry about with form, his last 5 are 66, 31, red18, 86 and 58.  The kid has talent, but doesn’t score consistently enough.

Nathan Vardy graced a lot of fields last week, but sadly he didn’t get it done, his bold start with two 70’s in his first two full games are about where it has ended.  Hopefully he can bounce back if we lose another ruck option.  Allen Christensen showed a bit of promise but only scored about half his score the week before.

The Kangaroo issues are back on, Atley, Harper and C Rich have all been named again, Harper and C Rich are struggling as they are on the extended bench with Atley named on the field.  Don’t let it fool you, but he seems safer than the others.

 Batchelor dove from his 83 back to 39 and Conca is back, but I reckon he will get the green vest.  His last was a red27.  Vickery dropped from 79 down to 41 also, just don’t know how to read these Tigers.

Sam Reid from the Swans has dropped off from his previous form which is a touch disappointing.  He has had 43 and 59 in the last two.  Although the 59 was in shit conditions in Adelaide.  Alex Johnson came back too and he was in the 50’s.

Jack Darling is back from a bye and I am a bit concerned as to which Jack we will see.  Most have traded him and that may be the best option.  However, his last was a 66.  I want to see another good score before I put him back up the top.

That is it for this week, some of our favourites are having the week off an a few others are having a rest!  Here is the rankings for this week, However, I get the feeling that most of us won’t have too many choices to make with a distinct lack of players.

Defenders

  1. Puopolo
  2. Heppell
  3. Stanley
  4. Hibberd
  5. Duigan
  6. Buckley
  7. Pedersen
  8. Jacobs
  9. O’Brien
  10. Batchelor

Midfielders

  1. Savage
  2. Krakouer
  3. I Smith
  4. Heppell
  5. Swallow
  6. Iles
  7. Hibberd
  8. McKenzie
  9. Buckley
  10. Atley

Forwards

  1. Krakouer
  2. I Smith
  3. Breust
  4. Lobbe
  5. Darling
  6. O’Brien
  7. Tom Lynch (GC)
  8. Dahlhaus
  9. A Johnson
  10. Karnezis
  11. Prestia

So there you have it.  Look forward to the discussion this week.  And yes, even though Smith and Krak didn’t do so well last week, they are both playing at their favourite grounds and are playing teams that they should smash.  Catch ya during the week on twitter @pkd73

97 Comments

  • Great write up Dunny! Would like to see rucks in there now that there’s actually a few options floating around.

    • Long time reader first time comment. This is one of the best reads going around. Thanks for your help throughout the year Dunny!

    • Thanks guys,

      In terms of Rucks….

      Lobbe
      Bailey
      Vickery
      Browne
      Vardy

      Cheers

  • Where would you put Smith in that list as I am tossing up between Zac and Bailey.
    Thanks Dunny

    • Crap, forgot him, sorry, I reckon he slots in just behind Lobbe. Mainly because he is up against Sydney and I reckon Mumford may be able to go with him athletically around the ground.

      Tough call though mate, I would probably go Zac at home, only because Leuenberger has been on fire of late and may hurt Bailey around the ground, but it is in Tassie so that would work in his favour.

      I reckon they will end up with fairly similar scores to be honest though.

      Be assured though, which ever one you pick, the other one will score better… been happening to me all year.

  • Let there be a blackout until 741 tonight…. i do not want to trade!

  • Nix InVestment Outlook:

    Predicted Green Vests for Round 16 – 2 options per team:

    West Coast – Stevens or Swift,
    Geelong – Motlop or Christensen,
    Hawthorn – Cheney or Young,
    Brisbane – O’Brien or Banfield,
    Gold Coast – Bennell or Matera,
    Sydney – Jetta or Johnson,
    Essendon – Davey or Dyson,
    Richmond – Batchelor or Helbig,
    Collingwood – Buckley or Fasolo,
    North Melbourne – Atley or Harper,
    Port Adelaide – Banner or Hitchcock,
    St.Kilda – Geary or McQualter,
    Western Bulldogs – Hooper or Djerkurra,
    Carlton – Tuohy or Ellard.
    Adelaide – Thompson or Otten,
    Fremantle – Pavlich or Fyfe,
    Melbourne – Sylvia or Howe,

    Form Guide:
    – For 22 man squads last week 100% success rate, with 76% average over last 2 rounds.
    – For 25 man squads last week 33%, with 50% average over last 2 rounds – these are more difficult because often my picks get cut when the squad is reduced to 22.

    Criteria – Success if one of my 2 picks is named the Sub, or more importantly the 20 (or 23) players I didn’t pick are not named the Sub.
    Excluded – Teams that name a late inclusion player as the Sub are not counted as either a success or fail, there have been 3 of these over the 2 weeks.

    • Atley and Harper wrong.
      Atley will play and Harper will be an emergency!
      BTW Go Roos!

      • Please let Cam Richardson play.

        • i need richardson to play too in case buddy is a late withdrawl…
          + 1 to TKOL’s call, harper will struggle to make the cut and GO Roos!

    • haha, that would be a killer article mate!! it would definately generate a lot of discussion/concerned snaps!!

      • Agree Roy. This would be a good Article/post to make late on a Friday when we are locking in our teams.

        Alternative Nix is if you want me to include them (with the appropriate credit / blame) I can slot it in after my rankings if you want.

        • Thanks for comments,

          I think it fits well with the off the bench article because it helps with the same decisions:
          – who do I play on field in #6/7 position?
          – who do I name as emergency?
          – who do I leave on the bench as a non-emergency?

          It becomes a bit problematic to leave it till later on Friday, there are haphazard team changes that are difficult to keep track of, and often a few of the reduced benches are not even published before lockout – I think afl.com.au staff must head off to the pub. Plus at that time I am busy doing my trades, shuffling my own side around, and changing my leadership group 5 or 6 times. I tend to just focus on my own 33 players and then update the other records on Saturday morning.

          I don’t mind continuing with this as long as I think I am getting some success in my calls. However, I don’t expect to write any more words than this post. As Dunny has said before, once you start justifying the rankings it adds a lot of words and it becomes tricky to know when to stop.

          But I am also happy to post as a separate article if you want. When I have done the previous articles these have gone through Warnie and he has posted them which is double handling. Do some of the other article writers have some sort of direct FTP web uploading access?

          Alternatively Dunny could cut and paste it into the bottom of his article, so that the info is sticky, and then re-publish as an updated merged article. However, I don’t think it is worth Dunny waiting for my input before he publishes his article in the first place.

          Let me know what you think.

    • I can guarantee you that your Adelaide, Fremantle and Melbourne picks are 100% wrong.

      • Great idea for an article though, would love to see your success rate over an entire year!

      • I think thats the joke. they have the bye so people are going to be missing those players.

    • I hoe swift is a late withdrawal he is as useless as tits on a bull look out who he is playing on because they will score massive DT points. Swift can not win contested ball and is softer than a curry fart.

      Great idea for an article, I could afford to spend more time on this site at work, watching my in tray pile up.

      • Totally agree don’t see what has justified him staying in the team over Gaff or stevens

        I’m glad Koby is finally getting a run, he has been killing it all year in the WAFL and I thought he did allright in the few games he played last year. I hope he gets a full game to show what he can do.

  • Good one Dunny. I think this week people won’t have many options on who to play. All my rooks are on the field with the exception of Jacobs. Analyser has me scoring 2038 which is always optimistic.

    • Off topic – I have 5 trades and the cash to change Isaac Smith to Gary Ablett. Should I do it or save the cash and trade?

      • Every team needs Ablett. You have missed the boat money wise, but if you can afford him then he will only reward you!

      • In a heartbeat! Wish I had the cash to do it.

        • Very tempted. Fills my last midfield spot, however uses most of my remaining cash and a trade. Will think about it during the day and decide after teams at 5.00pm.

          • Last midfield spot? As soon as Ablett enters your team, he auto takes your No.1 midfield spot. Do it.

          • Are you going for league win? Are you in Top 4? Will you make Top 4 without GAJ? If the answer is yes to all three i’d leave the trade as long as possibe. I think Smith will go up more than GAJ by finals time.

          • @ the Gherkin – pretty solid in third position. I was thinking the same thing about I Smith – it only takes GAJ one bad week for his price to drop.

            Thinking I’ll keep the cash and trade until absolutely necessary.

          • No brainer in my opinion. why wait? 450k+ for someone you are only going to use for potentially one or two weeks in the final when you could get him in asap and reap the benefits of his good form for as long as possible. Smith is inconsistant and isn’t like to go up for a while on the back of his 52 last week anyway

  • Darling might find more of the ball in lynch’s absence, more of his leads should be honoured you would think but at the same time he’s playing the cats.

    CARN THE WEAGLES!

  • Play Petrie in the rucks and have krak or ismith on the ground? Or play Petrie forwald and play z smith or lobbe??

    • Tough call. I don’t think the points difference will be massive. Bye round so don’t stress unless you are in the top 100 and going for the car.

      • I’d go Petrie and Smith (don’t you love the ambiguity) – that is, Isaac. You can’t really trust Lobbe with only 2 games. While there are a certain number of points up for grabs simply by being the no 1 ruck, I don’t think we should expect mid-90s every week. Zac has also been a little down of late, so I’d almost go Lobbe ahead of him. On the other hand, Isaac’s lowest score against ordinary competition when not injured is 89 (in 3 games) including a 99 in Tassie. Should be up for at least 80 this week I should think, with a 90 more likely. Krak’s highest score in ages is 80 and has only beaten that when he’s had a run in the mids for a quarter or so. Wouldn’t expect him to beat 80 this week and definitely not 90.

  • What about

    Smith or Lobbe in the RUCK ? what one

  • Here’s a q: Play Adcock over Hibberd?

    • SHort answer, yes.

      • thanks

        • You bought Adock in as a premium, now use him as one!!

          You have to stand by your premuims.

          Regards

          The Unemployed

          • But would you play him over Heppell? I have because he has a had an injury and as soon as he hurt himself the scores dropped just like last year and the year before that.

            Give just another week on the pine.

  • Great as always dunny. Just a quick question, i need to downgrade otten/lower for cash this week to upgrade my backline. Which of the two would u downgrade, and would u get TALIA or WILKINSON

    Thanks

    • Not an easy one, not sure on Talia’s job security, however, he has been playing well for the Panthers in the SANFL (only know cause I follow them). However, Wilkinson should get a better chance given it is the Gold Coast, but even they are rotating players. Gut feel says Wilkinson has better JS.

  • When are the finalised teams for Sunday’s games announced? i.e. when are the extended benches reduced down to real numbers?

    With the mulitbye I’m relying upon C Rich to get on the field to avoid a donut…not feeling confident as his track record of making the team is poor…however he’s probably not worth burning a trade on based on with his current price.

    • About 5pm Friday EST. I’m hoping he plays to avoid a bye also.

      • With the outs for the Roos I’m hoping he gets a run. Scott wouldnt be expecting a win so a great chance to see if C Rich can step up or whether he’s destined to be a VFL star and nothing more.

    • 5.00pm on Friday as it is every week.

  • wondering what to do with bartel i have 18000 in the bank

  • great write up again dunny!

    thanks for confirming my choice of puopolo over buckley, hibberd and jacobs.

    jacobs does seem to score alright at home though…

    • Yeah Jacobs does, but with a few out in the Power backline he has had to be a bit more accountable.

  • Well done Dunny. I was one of those who questioned putting Krak ahead of I Smith. You were right last time ’round. Again though, I’m not sure about I Smith and Krak this week. I Smith against crap competition has always scored 89+ (from only 3 games) including a 99 in Tassie. Against the Lions, he should score 80+. Krak, on the other hand, has managed just one 80 in his last 7 games. Only time Krak ever beats 80 is if he gets a run in the mids and he hasn’t really for awhile, I believe.

    Am I missing something?

    • Yeah I just think that Krak should do well against the Roos backs if he plays there. To be honest, for me this week wasn’t as clear cut with those two blokes. In the end I went with Krak because of his experience. However, it is much more a toss of a coin.

      I tried to find out what stage he was subbed on in that round 2 game to see what sort of timeframe he got those points in, but with limited time due to being flat out at work this time of year I couldn’t find it.

      So go with your gut on this one, I should have given them equal billing but thought I would get bagged for not making a decision!

      • Replaced Heath Shaw at 3 quarter time according to my records.

        • So he basically gunned it for a quarter, so with that I woud say he has a liking for playing the Roos

          • Hmm. 48 points in a quarter is impressive. I think I’ll still tip Smith to get the higher score since Krakouer hasn’t really shown that kind of form since. Perhaps Krakouer is a smokie for his 2nd 100 of the year though. Will be interesting… Cheers Dunny and Nix.

  • have one doghnut this week but not too worried as i had one last week and still managed in the 2200’s. thanks gazza!

  • Great write up Dunny!
    I know this is off topic but all the other articles don’t get read anymore so…

    Lower to Goddard or Fisher
    Darling to ROK or Fyfe

    What do you guys think of these trades. Which two should I trade in?

    • Goddard – will finish the year like his old self
      if your going for league wins – ROK will score better and has a bye in multi-bye round
      If your going for oberall – Fyfe – no byes remaining

      • Cheers mate.
        I’m going for league so I guess it’s Goddard and O’Keefe

  • Can’t really avoid having all my bench players on up forward.
    Lynch, Richardson and Krak.
    I have Fyfe and Sylvia out.

    It is a nice feeling to have fife mids averaging over 112ppg in Boyd, Pendles, Swan, Mitchel and Ablett.
    I am happy to have hodge as number 6.

    Feeling like I am in a good place for the finals with 6 trades left and 112k in the bank.

  • Mikescrap
    Overall Rank 1931

    DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Shaw, Sucklin, Fisher, Adcock
    (Heppell, Puopolo, Hibberd)

    MID: Swan, Boyd, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Montagna, A Swallow
    (I Smith, Mzungu, Wallis)

    RUCK: Cox, McEvoy
    (Lobbe, McCauley)

    FOR: Franklin, S Johnson, Fyfe, Sylvia, N Riewoldt, Goodes, Petrie
    (J Riewoldt, Lynch, J Tippett)

    * Next week my last trade, Isaac Smith for Bartel

    Im very happy with this, if you notice not many of my players have byes in the finals
    also my strong emergencies and dual position link in the Rucks will help me along the way !!

  • Good work dunny

    I wish I could just go with the list but due to DPP it seems to be more often that it ends up being about players in different positionts.

    This week I’m trying to decide who to play out of Krak and Z.Smith

    I’m leaning towards Z.Smith (plus this gives me a fwd emg which could be helpfull if Buddy or NRoo are a late withdrawel)

  • ‘The James Gwilt drinking game’

    Simple

    1) Watch the dt episode on the afl website
    2) Every time gwilty says the word “ummm” or “ahh” do 1 shot

    Skill level- Advanced. Do not try this if you are a light weight. Try it tonight before the footy for a challenge.

  • Is Cloke still a good pick up? Im considering going Rioli to him as he has been in stellar form and plays the GC in two weeks where he may pull out 140+, I’m just worried about having Dawes out of the team, this will mean more regular double/triple teams right?

    • I would wait a couple of weeks on Cloke. We do not know what effect having Daws out will have on him. Too risky at the moment IMO.

      There are other forward options out there.

      Regards

      The Unemployed

  • This week is very easy for me. Only have 23 players available but can field a full side thanks to DPP links.

    Only decision to make is Z Smith of Lobbe. I’m going with Smith. Lobe has been woeful in the Sanfl even though he’s smashed out two good DT scores. Hopefully the decision is the right one.

    • I agree with that assessment of Lobbe in the SANFL, not sure how he is doing so well in the Power side. I saw the game where West smashed the Panthers at Richmond and he did stuff all, I was very disappointed with his form. Adam Cockshell (a Power discard) played much better for the Panthers.

      But, the points don’t lie!

      • I heard lobbe on the radio the other day and he reckons the guys he comes up on in the sanfl are bigger bodies but the afl guys are taller so maybe he gains position advantage more in the afl. Only time will tell I guess. Can’t say I watch port games though!

  • Who would you guys put on over Z.Smith or M.Lobbe..I’m leaning towards Lobbe but not sure about him against the saints…

  • Heres some good news on Buddy…

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/118088/default.aspx

    “HAWTHORN coach Alastair Clarkson is confident his star forward Lance Franklin has overcome a rolled ankle and will be fit to face the Brisbane Lions on Saturday.”

  • I’ve got Zac Smith and Bailey on the ruck Bench (Cox and McEvoy playing rucks).

    Need to downgrade one of the bench ruck to make some money for upgrades next week for a must-win game. Downgrading Smith makes more money, but he also averages more. But Bailey seesm to have picked up his game in the last few weeks.

    Is it risky to downgrade Smith for a very cheap ruckman now (not Lobbe) to make more money, given that Bailey seems to be getting regular games now ?

    Another thought I have is next week’s Hawthorn bye, where I might be left a little vulnerable in case Cox or McEvoy get injured this week.

    Looking at it again, the safe option seems to be to downgrade Smith to Lobbe and keep the $170k in cash for the upgrade next week.

    Anyt thoughts ?

  • An additonal point. I don’t want to leave the ruck downgrade till next week, to leave the option for a double upgrade next week.

  • Any hope Callinan will play again this year? I picked him up last week to avoid a nugget. and now he pulled a hammy.

    If Craigy loses his job that could spell the end for the new old boy.

    If bloody Franky wimps out I cop a nugget Soft (as Ad) cock.

    • He’ll be fine. Adelaide need experience. That’s why we traded Tambling in.

  • Cox Mcevoy or Goldstien for sandi thanks in advance

  • Who should I select in the D7 spot …

    Rawlings (v Collingwood) or Heppell (v Richmond)?

    • do not start heppell over rawlings haha. back in your guns even if you think they wont do well

      • Normally I’d agree but Heppell v Tiges at the G is likely to rack ’em up across half back.

        A real coin flip this one.

  • Should i start jacobs or buckley????? Says buckley but vinx has him as a vest possibilty so that makes me a bit wary :s

  • Buddy’s out right?

  • Just a quickie – Lower or Duigan Trade Out??