Vested Interest: Mid-Season Review

So Vlad and co have produced a half year review of the sub rule and pronounced it a big success.  Big deal … they completely ignored the catastrophic impact on DT coaches.  Here is a half year review on the sub rule from a DT perspective.

After 12 rounds it is obvious subs’ DT scores are much lower than other players, and low enough to significantly alter the cash value of that player.  In short, vests are bad.

Although we don’t know the answer, we know the most important question.  Is my player going to be the sub?  If one of your players is going to be a sub, it is much better to have him as a pine jockey, and not in your 22+3 emergencies.   Some patterns are emerging to help us avoid relying on players who are more likely to be subs.

Where is the sub likely to be named on Thursday night?

Well of the 186 subs so far:

  • 30 (16%) were named on the field,
  • 138 (74%) were named on the interchange bench (the bench of 4, after removing extended list players), and
  • 18 (10%) were not named in the listed 22, but came into the side as a late inclusion.

That’s not really a surprise.  What is more useful is to know which coaches have the nasty habit of naming their subs on the field.

  • Collingwood has done it 5 times (out of 11 games),
  • Carlton and North 4 times,
  • Fremantle 3 times,
  • Hawthorn, Port, Richmond and St.Kilda twice,
  • Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, West Coast and Bulldogs only once, and
  • Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne never.

The Andrew Gaff Trophy

This award goes to the player with the most vests for the year – named after the first player to get 3 vests.  Lately a few spoilers are challenging young Andrew for his own trophy.  This award counts both red and green vests – a vest is a vest.

The standings also show which teams share the vests around and which coaches keep going back to the same few players.

Hope this helps some of you,

Nix

29 Comments

  • first

  • so this is green and red vest?

    Great info

  • Who will score better out of Bailey, Browne and Vardy this week??

    • get Hale but Bailey will score the highest out of those 3

      • First of all dpp is no advantage with hale because i don’t have petrie and also Hale has never really showed much in the way of scoring ability. I think there is a better chance of improvement from the others as they have not played many games at senior level. Also Hale cost more. Do you really think it is worth it?

  • I thought Lower had been subbed more than once, I must have been just frustrated with him.

    • Yeh i thought he had been subbed twice, but maybe not haha

    • nah he has, sub once, subbed of once i think

    • Yes you are right.

      Lower subbed off twice – 2 red vests. Also Dion Prestia – 2 green vests should be on the list.

      Both players I have – so I should have noticed that they didn’t come through in the search. Have to make sure I write the player’s name exactly the same way each time.

  • Great info

    Thanks.

  • Great work thanks. Have you also any analysis of from where on the interchange the sub is named?

    • I didn’t keep those numbers, but I recall someone else wrote some position percentages early on. I think we can say the sub is more often to the right side of the list than the left.

      But if you keep percentages at a league level then a lot of the info content gets washed out because different clubs are behaving differently. It would be better to keep it for each club – which is a lot of work. For example I think West Coast was the most reliable and almost always named their sub as #4 bench spot.

  • As Adam Sandler would say: That information would’ve been good to me..yesterday.

    Na, actually i think I’ve been lucky not to be hit by the vests as bad as some.

    My only real concerns were only ever B.Smith and R.Bewick.
    I can’t believe Bewick was sub 5 times, I don’t remember that or ever playing him for that matter.

    Good read though, very interesting to see 18% of subs were named on field, sneaky.

    Thanks Nix

    • Bewick – 2 greens + 3 reds – you probably didn’t notice the reds because you weren’t relying on his score, if you hadn’t selected him in your 22+3.

      This does explain why someone who played 8 games only went up $47k though. Bit of a cash calf that one.

      Yes I think there’s a thesis in waiting on what sub location says about the sneakiness of the coach / match committee. For example Collingwood named their subs on the field 45% of the time, and for a while were over 50%, that is no accident. Whereas Voss, Longmire and Bailey have never done it.

  • that is awesome info
    i can be pretty sure that I smith wont get the sub then thanks :D

  • Great work

    thanks.

  • you think nicholson will get in the starting 22???

  • In 2 likes your done!. I’m the underdog and wild card entry to the top 10 with a chance to win $5k. Please follow the link and “like” the “WiFi Toilet”. I’m way behind the leader and would love your help. Cheers

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  • Better JS out of I.Smith and Howe?

  • Gee, Gaff will be happy Masten isn’t playing this week. More vests for Andrew!

    Maybe there can be another trophy at the end of the year – best sub pairing. Whichever two players get subbed on and off together the most.

  • I remember playing Bewick twice because he was named by the Lions on the field so I assumed he would escape the vest only to have him subbed off later in the game, also one week i was forced to play him dues to my other mids having injuries and byes and of course that week he started as the sub.
    Bewick is the bone of my contention

  • Very handy info, thanks for taking the time to put it together Nix!

  • Great info indeed Nix – thanks mate!

    Fingers crossed Bewick can stay on the field this week and start to earn a little bit of cash…

  • bewick has helped me avoid a donut this week so it would be awesome if he could cap it off with a full game

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    Well if i win i’m going to hold an all inclusive party with a shit load of booze.
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    Don’t be as week as Zac Smith’s general soreness and vote.

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  • Thanks folks,

    However, I’ve found a few more missing players for the Standings table. That’s what happens when you don’t reconcile your search queries back to the total number of vests … D’Oh!

    I’ll send through a part 2 article next week with an updated table, plus I’ve worked out how I can produce some info on bench position # reasonably easily as well.

    Of course you’ll all have to guarantee there are no members of the DT Talk Legends league reading this who may use this info against me.