Chook’s Rooks – Round 5

Posted by on 27/4/10 • Categorised as Chook's Rooks

What is it with our rookie superstars bombing in their third games? After two stand-out performances, James Podsiadly and Tom Rockliffe became the latest to suffer a bout of the third-game blues.

Actually, blues doesn’t quite cut it. A 60 when you’ve been averaging 100, JPod? That’s more of a deep blue than a regular blue. Let’s call it a bout of the third-game smalts. Yeah, smalt, it’s like a dark blue. Look it up.

It could be that the teammate whose injury opened the door for your rookie has come back into the side and is stealing his points. It could be that opposition sides are paying the rookie a little more attention after a couple of good games. Maybe game three was against Sydney? Or it could just be inconsistency – the kryptonite that cripples all rookies from time to time.

For different reasons, JPod, T-Rock, Kane Lucas, Travis Colyer, Brodie Moles, Michael Barlow, Luke Shuey, Alex Silvagni, Jake Melksham and Mitchell Banner are all examples of rookies this year whose third-game score was lower than their scores in the first two.

Long-time rookie watchers will do well to remember a worse case of the third-game smalts than the terminal type caught by Beau Muston last year. 127, 106… 42. Yuck.

Oh, in honour of Jack Trengove beating everyone but Barlow this round, I’ve decided to insert an unwarranted “r” into everyone’s name this week, as is often done to the Melbourne midfielder.

Three-or-more gamers

Not everyone is prone to the smalts, of course. Hawthorn backman Bren Stratton pumped out a 98 against North Melbourne, after less-than-impressive scores of 62 and 41. This kind of rookie behaviour is frowned on, as it convinces everyone to ignore him until he’s already had his first price change, meaning we’ve all missed the boat.

Geelong forward James Prodsiadly still owns the best breakeven of this group with -63, while Melbourne midfielder Rohan Brail, if he’s back, is sitting on -48. As mentioned, Fremantle midfielder Michael Brarlow was again the hero of the round with 115, while the Demons’ number two pick, Jack Trengrove, knocked out a 108. Bulldogs middie Brodie Molers also brought up a century, despite not being on the team sheet until fallen premo Ryan Hargave was a late withdrawal.

Special mentions must go to Richmond midfielder Durstin Martin, who took a break from being mediocre to give us an 80, including 34 in the first quarter, and Essendon forward Scott Grumbleton, who nailed a 96. Like a Warhead lolly, Grumby’s big scores are all the more sweeter for having to suffer through his disgusting scores beforehand.

They were the good guys of round five. Now for the baddies. Playing a leading role for the losers was Hawthorn forward Carl Perterson, who could manage no more than 30 against North. The supporting cast included midfielders Anthony Morabirto, of Freo, and Jaker Melksham, of Essendon, who both scored 42. While that’s not too much of a concern for Melksharm, seeing as it’s only his third game, it spells trouble for Morabitor and Preterson, who become the first of this year’s rookies to enter… THE RED ZONE!

Yeah, the capitals and exclamation mark scream “DANGER!”, right? Good, because that’s exactly what the Red Zone is. DANGEROUS! Rookies find themselves in the red zone when their breakeven for the upcoming round exceeds their current average. I gave it the name Red Zone because it sounds so DANGEROUS! (I hope you’re getting the message) but mainly because red (not smalt) is the colour a breakeven will turn when this happens in Grimlock’s peerless FF Genie. After 90s in round three, Morarbito and Petersorn have been pretty dismal in the past two weeks, giving them breakevens of 75 and 77 respectively. That’s a problem for blokes averaging about 60. If you think they’re going to churn out more of the 90s and less of the 40s, then stick with them, but if I had one of these blokes in my stable, I’d start searching for a downgrade/upgrade target. You could do worse (not much, but a little) than checking out the about-to-pop two gamers below.

Two gamers

In good news for Morabitro owners, the rookie with the best breakeven is available in the midfield bracket. Jarrrod Kayler-Thomson had a 65 in round one, missed three weeks and then chalked up a 101. His price of $77,800 and breakeven of -108 are attractive, but job security has to be a concern.

Another $77k midfielder, Essendon’s Bern Howlett, is next up with a BE of -79. He was dropped after two games and then listed with a two-week ankle injury, but apparently played in the VFL on the weekend. A mature-age rookie, I’ll definitely be considering Howler for a downgrade if his return coincides with one of my current crop of cows reaching their peak.

Also boasting BEs in the negative 70s are defenders Sirmon White, of Carlton, and Phil Darvis, of Adelaide. Whiter ($77k)has scores of 74 and 58, while Davirs ($94k) has consistent scores of 69 and 71. The Blues and Crows both have tall defenders that could oust this pair, but Geelong’s Josh Hunt is going to fall victim to my itchy trigger finger this week, so I’ve got to pick one. I’m leaning towards paying $17k more for Dravis, as I think he’s got better job security than Whrite. You could also plump for Ashton Harms, the West Coast defender who costs $77k. He’s had 48 and 68 for a BE of -58.

From here on it’s all forwards, and I wouldn’t be going near any of them, except for maybe Davirs, who’s listed as a defender-forward in DT. To be honest, if you wanted to downgrade a forward, last week was your week. If you’re desperate, you’re choices are all $89k and all yellow and black. Matthew Dear (-35) has the best BE of the Richmond trio after a 72 against Freo, while Dravid Astbury and Troy Traylor were criminally poor and fully deserve their horrible BEs of -6 and 4. If you do pick up a two gamer this week, fingers crossed they can avoid the third-game smalts.

One gamers

AFL coaches threw us DT coaches six pieces of fresh meat in round five, including highly touted Kangaroos midfielder Ben Cunningtron. His first-up score of 48 wasn’t particularly promising, but more of a concern is his starting price of $140k. Fremantle forward Nathan Fryfe, Western Bulldogs ruckman Jordan Roughead and West Coast midfielder Lewis Stevenson all outscored Cunnington, while dual positioners Rickry Henderson, of Adelaide, and Matthew Lobber, of Port Adelaide, were around the 30 mark. Double yuck.

Trading? I want to hear all about it.

Join Sportingbet Australia

992 Comments

  1. J Mc
    April 28, 2010 • 2:11 pm

    What does everyone think about a trade fro Gray – Alan Didak or Colin Sylvia?

  2. Eraserhead
    April 28, 2010 • 2:24 pm

    Didak (and $100k in the bank) or Sylvia?

    • Thommy
      April 28, 2010 • 2:43 pm

      I think Didak has bottomed out, after a 100 odd points last game he has finally shown some form,

      He will be a good bargain buy this round and I wanted to upgrade Mayne to Didak myself this round but now Danger is out I have to take care of him first

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 2:45 pm

      Conventional wisdom is Didak right? Last 2 years he’s averaged 90+ (but only played 35 games), Sylvia clocked 95 last year and is above that this year – last year he scored above 70 every round after round 3…

      • Thommy
        April 28, 2010 • 2:53 pm

        Sylvia is a very good choice also and i you had the extra 20k you’d serisouly consider it

        But I think at 388k Didak is a bargain who probably wont get any lower.
        But hey, theres always risk in every trade and there is no obvious right or wrong to the didak/sylvia question

        • Andrew
          April 28, 2010 • 6:58 pm

          Well said, I’m leaning with Sylvia because I can wait another week on Didak with a breakeven of 92. Plus Collingwood play Carlton who shut down Geelong’s small forwards pretty nicely and could easily do it again. If you’re needing to milk two cows over the next two weeks, I’d go Sylvia this week and Didak the next, but I do rate Sylvia as the slightly better player and you’ll get what you pay for.

  3. Rook
    April 28, 2010 • 2:29 pm

    Fyfe or Dea in for Dangerfield as a cash cow?

  4. Thommy
    April 28, 2010 • 2:40 pm

    Gunna use my first 2 trades this week.

    Hunt out and Davis in seems like the obvious one

    But I’m unsure on who to upgrade Dangerfield to

    10k short of Didak which leaves me with the options of Rioli, Stevie J or Mathew Bates as the 3 best in my price range.

    I’m worried about Rioli’s groin (the injury that is!)
    Stevie J’s consistancy
    And Mathew Bate is yet to prove he is a keeper

    Anyone have any thoughts that could sway my decision?

    Thanks in advance

    • Avatar of Amazing 30
      Amazing 30
      April 28, 2010 • 2:42 pm

      Just hold, on mate, dont be rushed into a trade

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 2:49 pm

      Who else is your fwd cover? Like amazing said, you might be able to cover for a week and get someone you actually want instead of a stopgap

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 3:01 pm

      Neon Leon if you want to lose all you money :P
      Have you looked at Grundy?

    • Brad
      April 28, 2010 • 3:04 pm

      In the same boat; tossing up between Steve J, D Thomas, L Franklin, or Leon Davis…..any thoughts?

    • Thommy
      April 28, 2010 • 3:45 pm

      Thanks for the reply guys

      I guess I gotta toss up between a potential keeper in Rioli or another double trade next week to get a gun keeper in didak/sylvia/ROK

      Lots to think about before Friday

      neway good luck this round (unless i get one of you in the eliminator)

  5. PieMan
    April 28, 2010 • 2:48 pm

    Theres a few rookies I who haven’t played a game yet which could be good downgrades.

    Backs –
    Marcus Davies (Carlton), Jeromey Webberley (Richmond), Jarrad Blight (Collingwood),
    Tyson Slattery (Essendon), Daniel Talia (Adelaide).

    Midfeilders -
    Ben Sinclair (Collingwood), Josh Thomas (Collingwood), Koby Stevens (West Coast)

    Forwards -
    Luke Tapscott (Melbourne), Trent Dennis-Lane (Sydney), Mitch Brown (Geelong),
    Robbie Tarrant (North Melbourne),.

    Does anybody know how far these guys are off from there first game?

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 2:51 pm

      I havent seen much press on any of these, though I think someone on here said Stevens was smashing up wafl

    • McScoundrel
      April 28, 2010 • 3:03 pm

      Good list PieMan.

      Worth adding Jeremy Laidler (Geelong), Taylor Hunt (Geelong) to the defs (longshots to get reasonable action this year, but you’ve got to love the propensity for Geelong players to rack up a score) and Gary Rohan to the mids (the Rohan!, whose bonus is that he’s a dpp [but as above, a lot of competion from Jack, Hanneberry, Trent Dennis-Lane, etc]).

      Marcus Davies is the one!

      • Avatar of leegend
        leegend
        April 28, 2010 • 3:05 pm

        Swans have had Rohan as emergency most weeks haven’t they?

        • McScoundrel
          April 28, 2010 • 3:22 pm

          Yep. He was in the mix for round 1 but was rooted after the pre-season and went back home for a little while. Good hard-at-it player. If/when he plays, he’ll need to go pretty good to keep his position but may not have the tank to play at the required level all year so beware! he might cover for injuries and be in and out of the side.

    • J Mc
      April 28, 2010 • 4:07 pm

      Mitch Brown won’t play this year…

  6. Cillbot
    April 28, 2010 • 3:12 pm

    I’m weighing up Fwd options for ~450K and under
    I have brown didak goodes and stevie J
    and I’m thinking Pav or ROK
    I’m concerned about having ROK and Goodes in the same tema

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 3:17 pm

      ROK and Goodes have been strong and consistent, but OK got more points in 4/5 games. I’d take OK. And I did all along

    • McScoundrel
      April 28, 2010 • 3:28 pm

      I’ve got both. ROK does whatever he wants, Goodes starts at centre-half forward and finds himself in the guts and as a defensive midfielder at various stages of the game. No probs with both. Ablett and Bartel, Montagna and Hayes, Carazzo and Scotland would suit me just fine.

      • Avatar of leegend
        leegend
        April 28, 2010 • 3:32 pm

        If anything it would balance out if one gets tagged, but really both score well, like you said with those other pairs. Do any of the swans get tagged regularly?

        • McScoundrel
          April 28, 2010 • 3:38 pm

          No. The in-and-under types are Jude Bolton, Captain Kirk and Keiren? Jack. The other key mids are Jared McVeigh and Daniel Hanneberry. None of them consistently get tagged. They all do a job but aren’t key like Ablett, Judd or Watson.

    • Thommy
      April 28, 2010 • 3:52 pm

      I selected ROK from the start and haven’t been dissapointed.

      Pav has had one good game of 125 or so but mostly scores around the 80 and 90 mark.
      Since Dockers mids are a little stronger this year Pav hasn’t had to be mr fix it and play everywhere all over the ground and can spend more time up forward. He kicks goals and takes marks but I think ROK is the marginally better option

  7. thomas green
    April 28, 2010 • 3:56 pm

    should i go (as an upgrade from ball, after trading out hunt) Ablett or swan. swan would give me about 120k left, while im worried about gabletts price

  8. Patto
    April 28, 2010 • 3:57 pm

    Hm….McVeigh to Stanton, Hayes, Didak, Gibbs, Judd or Sylvia? Haha, so many options, this is doing my head in. I’m thinking Hayes however Stanton is on fire this year.

    • Samsa
      April 28, 2010 • 4:03 pm

      what about cassisie?

      • Nails
        April 28, 2010 • 4:43 pm

        Hey Samsa..

        I’m going to wait another week on Cassissi..

        I know I said I’d get him this week, but with Peterson and Hunt peaking/peaked I’m trading them out. Gives me another week to sure up my options too :).

        • Samsa
          April 28, 2010 • 4:55 pm

          ok nails currently something is doing my head in bad..
          got 141k in the bank
          obv gonna do hunt > davis which then i have eh.. 267800 now keep in mind i have reimers on the bench and hoping to do silvangi or nason to hargrave in a few weeks.
          If i go Mcveigh>gibbs i will then have around 130k left over and then next week riemers to didak but how much will didak go up by if he scored say 100 or 110. I am then not sure if i will have enought money to do a straight swap with nason or silvangi to hargrave in a few weeks.
          on the other hand if i get Cassisie i can pretty much get didak and hargrave for sure.

          Guys what are your thoughts?

          • Samsa
            April 28, 2010 • 5:00 pm

            oh and i wonder what goes through Warnie’s,roy’s,calvin’s,chopper’s etc heads when they are trading lol.

  9. Avatar of Dark horse
    Dark horse
    April 28, 2010 • 4:12 pm

    getting rid of peterson r schulz and dangerfield i have 55k in the bank but dont no who do get rid of out of peteson and schulz and who do get

    • Thommy
      April 28, 2010 • 4:22 pm

      Depends if your upgrading or downgrading.

      Peterson has made most of the money that he will make and it is probably not a bad time to downgrade to someone like Davis and cash in.

      Shultz I haven’t really followed but I would suggest he would be someone who you would upgrade as he probably hasn’t made you a lot of money, so your not getting a lot of benefit in downgrading him

  10. Avatar of hob
    hob
    April 28, 2010 • 4:20 pm

    im a little unsure of what to do next in the way of trades. so hopefully someone can give me some ideas at what would be best..
    i have 22,400 in the bank.
    my team is:
    Backs: L Hodge, C Enright, N Malceski, H Shaw, L McPharlin, S Baker, C Brown, (res: A Silvagni, J Carter)
    Mids: G Ablett, R O’Keefe, D Swan, M Barlow, B Stanton, D Martin (res: P Dangerfield, M Banner)
    Rucks: M Kreuzer, M Seaby (res: R Warnock, J Trengrove)
    Forwards: A Goodes, D Giansiracusa, A Schneider, H Ballantyne, S O’hAilpin, B Warren, M LeCras (res: J Podsiadly, N Westhoff)

    my thoughts are on getting some in in place of Carter in my reserves to make some cash, he hasnt got a game, the same as Westhoff down forward..
    also im thinking dangerfield is going down hill along with LeCras and O’hAilpin..

    • Avatar of leegend
      leegend
      April 28, 2010 • 4:32 pm

      You might look at downgrading Campbell to a rookie, but OHailpin’s gotta go. If Danger’s on the bench, maybe leave him for now?

      • Avatar of hob
        hob
        April 28, 2010 • 4:39 pm

        O’hAilpin for Phil Davis, Rockliff, Gumbleton? or someone else?

        • Avatar of leegend
          leegend
          April 28, 2010 • 4:43 pm

          Davis would net you the most cash in the short term. Rockliff’s already 150k, gumby’s more and with less potential. Davis for me – anyone else got thoughts?

          • Avatar of hob
            hob
            April 28, 2010 • 7:02 pm

            i just looked, and im thinking trading Lecras over O’hAilpin just becuase Lecras has already dropped $40,000 where as O’hAilpin has gone up in value, if only $8,000. or should i not be worried about this too much, just dont wanna wait longer and loose more on Lecras.
            so trading Lecras over O’hAilpin, good call bad call?

    • Andrew
      April 28, 2010 • 7:02 pm

      Seeing as you haven’t sold him as yet, hang onto Le Cras. The Eagles will get slightly better, as he will and I’d be surprised if he didn’t reach his starting price again soon. He’ll surely be given some time in the midfield too. He’s a cool player to have but hasn’t fulfilled the promise I think most thought he could, probably not his fault though. Looking at your team, I’d think about getting rid of Dangerfield and O’Halpin this week.

  11. Dazza
    April 28, 2010 • 4:21 pm

    Shulz is pretty consistant. I’m thinking about keeping him as the 7th forward.. But depends what your forward line looks like I suppose

  12. Angus
    April 28, 2010 • 4:31 pm

    OK I HAVE SOME TRADES 2 DO

    OPTION 1 Mcveigh for howlet
    Seaby for cox

    OPTION 2 Mcveigh for howlet
    Seaby for Sandi

    OPTION 3 McVeigh for trengrove
    Seaby for luenburger

    OPTION 4 Mcveigh for any 1 bellow 290 000
    keep seaby

    I have bench cover ATM

  13. Matt
    April 28, 2010 • 4:59 pm

    what midfield would you rather?

    A) Ablet,Swan,Bartel,Ball,Barlow,Martin

    OR

    B) Swan,Bartel,Judd,Stanton/didak/montagna(im unsure),Barlow,Martin

    Ifi i choose option B, that means i will have Ball instead of didak/stanton/montagna for this week but next week i will have didak/Stanton /Montagna

    Help me pleaseee

  14. hados22
    April 28, 2010 • 5:44 pm

    shicmt for davis (on the bench) then ball for mcdonald

  15. Matt
    April 28, 2010 • 5:48 pm

    thanks boys

  16. Bob
    April 28, 2010 • 6:10 pm

    Thoughts on this???

    Downgrade Nason to Davis(hopfully his spot is secure now)
    then Dangerfield to Chapman, this would make my forward line;

    ROK, Brown, Higgins, Brennan, Chapman, Balla (Pods and Rocky)

    happy with that???? thoughts people!!!???? or any other suggestions!?

  17. Wraygun
    April 28, 2010 • 6:26 pm

    Dangerfield out for a month? Should i keep him or use yet another trade (16 left) just worried about wasting a trade on Dangerfield because i don’t want to do a sideways trade. I also don’t want to use 2 trades as i don’t have many trades left. $38,200 in bank and Dangerfield is $228,700 gives me $266,900 to use ….. that’s not alot of money. My options are
    1. Dangerfield – Ballentyne (Sideways Trade)
    2. Dangerfield – Garlett (Sideways Trade)
    3. Keep Dangerfield Sub on JPod with Warren also onfield for a month

    Help Please!? Thanks

  18. Avatar of Long and strong
    Long and strong
    April 28, 2010 • 6:34 pm

    Looking to trade mark mcveigh this week before he drops in priceany thoughts on who though
    Jarrod kayler-thomson will he get enough games? i dont really want to make a sideways trade

    • Braky
      April 28, 2010 • 7:30 pm

      if no cash in the bank you really have no choice but to downgrade and your bench players will continue to cover and probably outscore McVeigh anyway. $80K upgrade gets you Casissi and $140K gets you Gibbs/Judd so maybe a double trade is on the cards.

      I have McVeigh but I have the cash to upgrade to Gibbs so deal done

  19. Hughy
    April 28, 2010 • 6:59 pm

    What about trading Morabito for Clinton Young? Thoughts?

  20. Jimbo
    April 28, 2010 • 7:03 pm

    Peterson down to Davis?

    But trading is baaaad! I DOOOON’T KNOOOWWW!?!?!?!!

    • Andrew
      April 28, 2010 • 7:06 pm

      You definately have to milk Peterson this week, so get Davis if you’re happy with your scores at the moment, or Sylvia/Didak if you’re not. If you don’t have that kind of money, Ballantyne is a bit of a sideways trade but last chance to get him if you’ve impressed by him and can fit in a mid-price forward. Check Freo’s draw; pretty good especially the last month.

  21. Angus
    April 28, 2010 • 7:28 pm

    WHY dose every one think so highly of ben cunnington he scored below 50 in a winning game

  22. scatts
    April 28, 2010 • 7:28 pm

    seaby… piss off Muppet.. and I will bring coxy in ….cox the only man that can compete and run rings around sandman ….cox is on his way back to his normal best ….

  23. Avatar of nebnoswal
    nebnoswal
    April 28, 2010 • 11:10 pm

    Time for Winderlich to go, any suggestions. Only $12,500 in the bank. Clint Jones or Jordie McKenzie are looking good.

  24. Dillon
    April 29, 2010 • 5:33 am

    Anyone considered the Bird-Man? Will he hold up for the season? History shows he can score a consistent 80+ and he would be an easy Dangerfield upgrade.

  25. Avatar of hob
    hob
    April 30, 2010 • 11:49 am

    Mitchell Banner; anyone know what sort of chance he will have of coming back… he played the first 3 games, each week scoring worse, but jst wondering if i should hold onto him, or waste a trade and a cheaper rookie who is getting games at the moment..

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