Chook’s Rooks – Round 5

What is it with our rookie superstars bombing in their third games? After two stand-out performances, James Podsiadly and Tom Rockliffe became the latest to suffer a bout of the third-game blues.

Actually, blues doesn’t quite cut it. A 60 when you’ve been averaging 100, JPod? That’s more of a deep blue than a regular blue. Let’s call it a bout of the third-game smalts. Yeah, smalt, it’s like a dark blue. Look it up.

It could be that the teammate whose injury opened the door for your rookie has come back into the side and is stealing his points. It could be that opposition sides are paying the rookie a little more attention after a couple of good games. Maybe game three was against Sydney? Or it could just be inconsistency – the kryptonite that cripples all rookies from time to time.

For different reasons, JPod, T-Rock, Kane Lucas, Travis Colyer, Brodie Moles, Michael Barlow, Luke Shuey, Alex Silvagni, Jake Melksham and Mitchell Banner are all examples of rookies this year whose third-game score was lower than their scores in the first two.

Long-time rookie watchers will do well to remember a worse case of the third-game smalts than the terminal type caught by Beau Muston last year. 127, 106… 42. Yuck.

Oh, in honour of Jack Trengove beating everyone but Barlow this round, I’ve decided to insert an unwarranted “r” into everyone’s name this week, as is often done to the Melbourne midfielder.

Three-or-more gamers

Not everyone is prone to the smalts, of course. Hawthorn backman Bren Stratton pumped out a 98 against North Melbourne, after less-than-impressive scores of 62 and 41. This kind of rookie behaviour is frowned on, as it convinces everyone to ignore him until he’s already had his first price change, meaning we’ve all missed the boat.

Geelong forward James Prodsiadly still owns the best breakeven of this group with -63, while Melbourne midfielder Rohan Brail, if he’s back, is sitting on -48. As mentioned, Fremantle midfielder Michael Brarlow was again the hero of the round with 115, while the Demons’ number two pick, Jack Trengrove, knocked out a 108. Bulldogs middie Brodie Molers also brought up a century, despite not being on the team sheet until fallen premo Ryan Hargave was a late withdrawal.

Special mentions must go to Richmond midfielder Durstin Martin, who took a break from being mediocre to give us an 80, including 34 in the first quarter, and Essendon forward Scott Grumbleton, who nailed a 96. Like a Warhead lolly, Grumby’s big scores are all the more sweeter for having to suffer through his disgusting scores beforehand.

They were the good guys of round five. Now for the baddies. Playing a leading role for the losers was Hawthorn forward Carl Perterson, who could manage no more than 30 against North. The supporting cast included midfielders Anthony Morabirto, of Freo, and Jaker Melksham, of Essendon, who both scored 42. While that’s not too much of a concern for Melksharm, seeing as it’s only his third game, it spells trouble for Morabitor and Preterson, who become the first of this year’s rookies to enter… THE RED ZONE!

Yeah, the capitals and exclamation mark scream “DANGER!”, right? Good, because that’s exactly what the Red Zone is. DANGEROUS! Rookies find themselves in the red zone when their breakeven for the upcoming round exceeds their current average. I gave it the name Red Zone because it sounds so DANGEROUS! (I hope you’re getting the message) but mainly because red (not smalt) is the colour a breakeven will turn when this happens in Grimlock’s peerless FF Genie. After 90s in round three, Morarbito and Petersorn have been pretty dismal in the past two weeks, giving them breakevens of 75 and 77 respectively. That’s a problem for blokes averaging about 60. If you think they’re going to churn out more of the 90s and less of the 40s, then stick with them, but if I had one of these blokes in my stable, I’d start searching for a downgrade/upgrade target. You could do worse (not much, but a little) than checking out the about-to-pop two gamers below.

Two gamers

In good news for Morabitro owners, the rookie with the best breakeven is available in the midfield bracket. Jarrrod Kayler-Thomson had a 65 in round one, missed three weeks and then chalked up a 101. His price of $77,800 and breakeven of -108 are attractive, but job security has to be a concern.

Another $77k midfielder, Essendon’s Bern Howlett, is next up with a BE of -79. He was dropped after two games and then listed with a two-week ankle injury, but apparently played in the VFL on the weekend. A mature-age rookie, I’ll definitely be considering Howler for a downgrade if his return coincides with one of my current crop of cows reaching their peak.

Also boasting BEs in the negative 70s are defenders Sirmon White, of Carlton, and Phil Darvis, of Adelaide. Whiter ($77k)has scores of 74 and 58, while Davirs ($94k) has consistent scores of 69 and 71. The Blues and Crows both have tall defenders that could oust this pair, but Geelong’s Josh Hunt is going to fall victim to my itchy trigger finger this week, so I’ve got to pick one. I’m leaning towards paying $17k more for Dravis, as I think he’s got better job security than Whrite. You could also plump for Ashton Harms, the West Coast defender who costs $77k. He’s had 48 and 68 for a BE of -58.

From here on it’s all forwards, and I wouldn’t be going near any of them, except for maybe Davirs, who’s listed as a defender-forward in DT. To be honest, if you wanted to downgrade a forward, last week was your week. If you’re desperate, you’re choices are all $89k and all yellow and black. Matthew Dear (-35) has the best BE of the Richmond trio after a 72 against Freo, while Dravid Astbury and Troy Traylor were criminally poor and fully deserve their horrible BEs of -6 and 4. If you do pick up a two gamer this week, fingers crossed they can avoid the third-game smalts.

One gamers

AFL coaches threw us DT coaches six pieces of fresh meat in round five, including highly touted Kangaroos midfielder Ben Cunningtron. His first-up score of 48 wasn’t particularly promising, but more of a concern is his starting price of $140k. Fremantle forward Nathan Fryfe, Western Bulldogs ruckman Jordan Roughead and West Coast midfielder Lewis Stevenson all outscored Cunnington, while dual positioners Rickry Henderson, of Adelaide, and Matthew Lobber, of Port Adelaide, were around the 30 mark. Double yuck.

Trading? I want to hear all about it.

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992 Comments

  1. Hawkins out Didak in

  2. inb4lock

    oh wait…

  3. Off topic, but I forgot to mention the DT Talk league in Fantasy English Premier League. The season is almost over, with the DT Talk league currently ranked 19th out of 193,000 leagues. That’s pretty awesome.

    The leader of our league, D Roberts, is ranked 19th in the world, which is even awesomer considering more than 2 million people play Fantasy EPL.

    Well done, shaggers.

  4. Hi guys. Love the site. First year reader and virgin post. Have 111K in bank and considering 1 of 2 trades this week (used 4 so far).

    Hille or Kruezer to Cox. OR

    Zeibell to Didak

    Also considering the hunt-Davis trade to free up cash for mid upgrade in a few weeks. But this will mean only 14 trades left for season and this concerns me. Appreciate comments from more experienced DTers.

    Cheers

    • i’d go zieball to Didak personally. i am doing something similar with Hall to Didak

    • I f you go by Their Avg. there is nothing in it. Hille still has a couple more week of price increases were as Krooz has pretty much leveled out. I guess it depends wheither you intend on keeping either of them come years end. If it were me I would pick one as a keeper and lock him in for the year and trade the other for Cox. Again if it were me i would be keeping Hille only because we know his points ceiling were as Krooz is still a little of an unknown.

    • Hille has a B/E of 16, so if you are thinking about the hille cox trade, do the kreuzer cox trade instead. I’d personally tempted to wait another week or so and see how hille goes, if he smashes out another big score I might keep him for the year.

      While cox has been playing well he still has a B/E of 78, so he isn’t likely to raise in price as much as hille will. that being said you might wanna do the kreuzer trade.

  5. Thinking about J.Hunt down to a rookie and then B.Hall up to Didak…

    • not a bad trade at all
      depends how many trades you’ve used so far

    • why trade Big Bad Bazza when he pumped out a reasonable score at the weekend??? don’t do this trade!! what a waste of a trade

      • Agree. His price will be on the rise with a decent score in the mix that will count for the next 2 games. Hold onto Hall, he might be coming good, and we know what he did to Zac Dawson in the NAB cup grand final also!

  6. At this stage looking to upgrade hall to Didak with my 100k left over. wanted to upgrade him from zieball but am 8k short.

    could do hille to cox instead, but i reckon hill will be a more consistent scorer then hall.

  7. Was hoping Simon Whites name wouldnt come up he has been largely missed by people in a lot of the other posts. But yerr he is a bad bad BAAAAAD pick who should not be talked about again.
    *Looks away and whistles*
    Nah i think he should get a few more games while the Blue baggers keep winning.

    • Not convinced he will get too many games. Waite, Bower and thornton to come back although Walkers shoulder injury opens up another spot. Was lucky Pods kicked terribly or he may have 4 or 5 kicked on him, which wouldn’t have been so good for him.
      Who really knows though, hasn’t done much wrong so far.

    • I wouldn’t be so sure about that, blues have a lot of ins to still come in that back line. Also remember that hendo ended up playing down back a little bit during the cats match and that gibbs and kane lucas and cracker carrazzo have been known to fill that smaller backline role.

      I was thinking about picking him up, but I can’t see him playing many games.

  8. Trying to decide if i should downgrade Hunt or Peterson to Dravis. Leading towards Peterson at the moment but open to any suggestions!

  9. I’m thinking hunt to davis and then maybe mcveigh to…… Hayes, Montagna, Selwood, Gibbs, Cassississsi…. the list goes on with too many to choose. A good problem to have I guess… expect for having mcgay…. what a homo.

  10. i’m in a similar situation with hunt. i reckon he will do better this week and increase but might as well jump on phil davis while he’s cheap. he should play a fair amount of games this year and has been impressive so far.

    also ive got nic naitanui and hille in the ruck but i think nows the time to offload nic for dean cox.

    any thoughts?

  11. Out: Ball, McVeigh

    In: Judd, Cunnington

    • im thinking about getting rid of masten for a premium!
      thinking judd….but not sure!
      anyone else you think?
      or jump on judd now?

      • Judd will be great this year, brock mclean has been winning a bit of the contested ball which is leaving judd to get a few more handball receives from the stoppages (also leaving him with a little more in the tank to finish off games).

        I made the mistake of getting brock mclean thinking he would be getting more delivery from judd, but it seems it’s been going the other way so far.

  12. lets not forget Levi Greenwood……………….sure to make you some money

  13. I’ve used 3 trades so far..

    and will make two this week

    I’m stuck on which of these 4 trades do I make this week..

    Seeing as I have both Peterson and Hunt, both players that have seemed to peak, I want them out.

    However I also want to get in Cox and Domenic Cassissi..

    Therefore I’m trying to decide…

    Do I go…
    Luke Ball > Cassa
    and Seaby > Cox

    or Hunt > Davis
    and Peterson > Fyfe (disgusting lack of rookie forwards)

    or Hunt > Davis
    and Ball > Cassa

    or Peterson > Davis
    and Seaby > Cox

    I think Cassissi will average >100 this year and at 351k it’s a price you can’t resist. Though I could possibly wait one more week on him, though I don’t want him to go up 20k with his BE of 44..

    Cox vs Sandilands won’t go up too much even if he does score 100 odd.
    I’d prefer not to miss the boat with Davis but then who do I get this week? Probably Cassissi?

    Is it too much of a sideways trade Ball > Cassa? Even though Cassa will prob avg 100-105 and Ball will be 80-85 (if lucky)

    Would it be worth the risk waiting and just doing two downgrades?

    Will Cassa really average >100?

    Will Peterson or Hunt be dropped to make my decision easier?

    Fuck, I think about DT too much. These questions have been plagging my mind a lot last day or two.
    I think I’ll probably go Josh Hunt > Davis as Davis will be a nice player to sit there and average 50+ all year pending security and won’t need to be traded out and go Ball > Cassa

    With J. Trengove, D. Martin and M. Duncan as my 3 cash cows left in the mids, I don’t think any are ripe for the picking and therefore if I do get Cassa in at his discount price, it’ll need to be Ball.

    Fuck.

    Any thoughts would be appreciated? What do others think is the best trade combo? Or any thing I haven’t thought of?

    • definately get on cox for seaby!!
      and get rid of peterson for sure!!!

      was just reading an article somewhere on fan footy about him, and yeah, get rid of him!!

      it will probably be a side ways trade (ball to cass) however it may be worth it, if cass does average 100+ and ball only 80 odd! ball has a lot of potential though…

    • if you are going to get rid off Peterson make sure you have bench cover for the possibility that Brown becomes injured this week (if you had Brown in the first place)

      • Yeah.

        I got Sir Gumbleton covering the bench :).

        Forward line reads:

        ROK, J Brown, Didak (full price paid, yuck), Gian, Hall, Balla and T-Rock.

        Therefore I really only need to downgrade Peterson for Cash

        The way I see it Hall and Balla will prob be my only upgrades and even then Balla might stay strong…

    • When people write a two page essay in their comment I generally stop reading and go onto the next post.

      I’m sure many others do also.

    • WOW Nails,
      I haven’t had to read that much in one sitting since year 12 English………………..and that was in 1991!!!!!!!!

      Like year 12 English, i was able to pick up the important bits and reckon the Peterson/Seaby to Davis/Cox combo is the best one.
      Happy trading………

  14. Brent…..Judd , tagged or not ………….is a ball magnet >100 week in week out…..get on!!

    • cheers!

      coz once i upgrade to that premium, possibly judd, my team should be at a min of 2000!

      so i need a consistent player! you reckon judd can be consistent 100+?

      stanton is also on the table, its just such a hard decision! dam dream team
      haha

  15. gray to pavlich, reimers to didak…

  16. thoughts on gray –> davis? noted that gray has only faced geelong and stk but still… should i out him now while hes still 321k good money to be made/saved.

  17. Henderson is out for 2-3 weeks

  18. Love the r’s man! I ended up just reading all the names and having to go back through it.

  19. Mayne to Sylvia

  20. hey fellas stuck on some trades for the week. any help will be good but things could change come selection night!
    i am thinking of
    Seaby to Cox but im thinking could hold of a week longer with Cox a B/E of about 80 against Sandilands, he never reallyy plays well against freo. so he may go up a tiny bit but not a heap

    Hunt down to Davis? If named of course… Hunt has peaked but same as Cox he may get his B/E but might go down i tad!!

    Gray to Didak will cost me 60K looking quite nice atm!!!

    i have 240K in the kitty for upgrades this week….
    or any other ideas, im all ears!
    cheers

    • im thinking the hunt trade HAS to be done this week becasue Davis will go up in price!!!

      • Haven’t got any players that have peaked in the forward line?

        As forward line rookies seem harder to find this year you could go say

        Carl Peterson > Davis

        And Hunt > (Was it Simon White?) Or one of the other defender rookies mentioned..

        • dont have Peterson, i have Duncan,Gumby and Pods
          Gumby is staying put as a 22 game player!
          Duncan should come back in… and Pods is at the beginning of his milking!

          • If I were you then I’d prob go Hunt > Davis

            As Previously mentioned by myself though…. a lack of good forward rookies, so it’d be nice if you could save Davis, shame you can’t :P. Just means you’re going to have a lack of players to trade in for duncan/pods once they have peaked.

            I’m not sure how Austin Wonaemirri scores in DT, but perhaps him? I really don’t know much about Austin to be entirely honest.

            I’m now trying to decide… do I take a risk and miss BOTH Cassa and Cox at this weeks price and do TWO downgrades?

            I suppose this is the last week to jump on board for good downgrades for a while.
            I don’t see much better targets than Phil Davis for the forwards and White for the backline…. and If I miss them both I’ll have to wait a couple weeks for another decent target, or fork out 40-50k for each one (more than I’d have to if I just miss Cassa or Cox for one week).

            This would also give Ball another week to prove himself. He put in a fairly decent effort with his 80+ to try and earn another week in the side.

            I realise these two are peaked (pete and josh) therefore It’s best to get them out now, but will it hurt me to Miss Cox and Hunt and would this trade be better than what I previously mentioned?

            Oh too many possibilities. Oh well, this is why DT is so great.

      • yeah, im always really hesitant about making trades

        i have ladson and hunt in the back on the bench, both wont really increase in price so tossing up whether to trade either to Davis to make around 150k.

        Then upgrading maybe gray to didak. Not sure if this is smart, as im burning 2 trades (already done 3) and getting one premium in

  21. “Smalts”, “Like a Warhead lolly”…pure gold!

  22. Josh Hunt out for either Simon White or Ashton Hams, depending on who gets named, White if they both do.

    Then either Jordie McKenzie out for GAJ, or Shuey out for Carrazzo, haven’t made up my mind yet.

  23. hunt> davis

    And danger or ziebell to dids. Whos everyone think?

  24. OUT: Hunt IN: Davis

    OUT: McVeigh IN: Judd or Hayes?

    Any comments would be appreciated

  25. I only have 16 trades left, but is now the time to use trades???? this is my second year in DT and im still a rookie….i was thinking of have 5 trades left for the finals??? anyway i was planning on dowgrading shuey to kayler-thompson and then upgrade dangerfield to sylvia???? or wait a week or two and upgrade bastinac to swan??? thoughts?

  26. Yeah, 20 trades is heaps. You’ve gotta use them all up, no use wasting them…

  27. I feel dudded by Jack Grimes – wtf is it with him?

    I’m considering the following for this week and have 16 trades left + $13,000;

    Grimes —> Davis
    Suckling —> White

    Would net me $350,000 which would be used next week for upgrades.

    Reckon these are good moves?

    After holding him from the start, I also regrettably (to avoid a donut – was out of him an Howlett) traded JKT last week after again being named emergency and he racked up 101! Brought in Cunnington for him for 48!!! Arrghhh Spewing!

    • I dont know why you traded a 77k rookie before he made you money.. sitting him on your bench would have saved you an important trade.

      If your gonna use your trades, use them wisely.

  28. Thinking about sitting on my hands until Round 8…but Fyfe might bring me forward to Round 7.

  29. Whats peoples thoughts about these trades, and are they considered sideways

    Hill & Clarke to Cox & Sandilands. (will return the best averages for remainder of the year in ruck)
    or
    Ball & McVeigh to Gibbs & Hayes. (great value and both should average close to a 100 for remainder of year)

    The look of these trades could be a good chance for me to get a nice jump ahead in the league, with next week a good chance to downgrade to rookie, and upgrade martin to a montagna/ablett/swan

    What are peoples thoughts on ball’s and mcveighs year ahead?

    • Gibbs looks low on confidence at the moment, last year he took a lot of the carlton kick outs (which resulted in a lot of kick to self, then kick out which gives you 3 points) but jordan russel the hack seems to be taking them. he looks really unsure of himself whenever he kicks but the last two weeks he has improved. I wouldn’t be pulling the trigger on him just yet.

      For an extra 10k you can get juddy.

  30. Would be nice to see Ashley Smith named for West Coast this week. This kid is a jet and was used as a sub in the preseason so probably only averaged 40% TOG and as such only scored 32 v Ess and 56 v Port. He’s been carving it up in the WAFL and is surely on the brink of selection with WC struggling. Would give a few of us an additional 2-3 weeks to piss Hunt/Silvagni/Ladson off, although the job security would be equal to Davis and White.

    • That would be nice for him to come in next round or so, as soon as Nason reaches a unachievable BE he is out. I hope there is a rookie that can take his place!

  31. Have Goose, Silvagni and Nason as my backline cash cows and have 176k in the bank. Am this week seriously considering Silvagni to Davis and Seaby to Cox (although Cox may drop against Sandi I dont see Seaby making 70 BE that FFGenie is suggesting so wont make any saving out of the deal regardless). Plus I think everyone who got sucked into the Seaby deal with the promise of cheap points, myself included, needs a break and what better time for him to pump out another big score than the week I trade him out (are you listening Calvin, he is a sure thing for craptains this week if i get rid of him).

    That will leave me with about 145K for the week after, a ruck that can hopefully finally be locked away (I started with Sandi and Clark thinking that I wouldnt have to go through all of this shit with my rucks), a back that will hopefully grow as much as Silvagni and some of the funds necessary to bring in Gablett once my mids have matured.

  32. Have to say I laughed hardest at Ryan Hargave. Very good Chook.

    Double downgrade this week: Hrunt to Hrams and Petersorn to Darvis

  33. Hopefully Pods starts kicking straight again.

    B(r)astinac benched…Trengrove back on the park for Rnd 6.

  34. Thinking

    J Hunt – S.White or Phil Davis.
    OR
    Ladson – Howlett or Didak
    OR
    Dangerfield – P.Davis

    Putting Didak in the midfield will enable access my mid/fwd DPP players of Chapman, O’keefe, M. Duncan, Dangerfield.

    Keeping Ladson in the mifield sustains access to my mid/def DPP players of Carrazzo & L.Hodge. But as Goddard is on my list of things to do he is slightly disposable.

    Spending too much time worringing about DPP?

  35. should i get matthew stokes or andrew lovett ?

  36. Hands up who is actually doing ok and gotten to the point where you are to scared to trade because you feel it will be the beginning of the end?

    • Me.
      Good score last week.
      Even with danger out I will bring on Rockliff or Gumbo to cover him.
      Hunt is my only worry but with the lack of replacements (Davis is the only legitimate one now with danger out) I might try and sit on him till something else crops up. It’s not like he will fall.
      I have like 700,000 in the bank but used 4 trades.
      I do not want to fall in the trigger finger group too early.

      Thoughts?

  37. who should I downgrade hitchcock to

  38. Could make a couple of big cash calls this week

    Hunt to Hams
    Dangerfield to Howlett

    Obviously this depends on Howlett being named in the Essendon team.

    Do you think this is too risky?

    Cheers

    • yeah pretty risky… i would go davis over hams. he is playing well but nickoski might take his place the piece of shit

  39. Dangerfield out 4-6 weeks with a broken hand must now add to the job security of Davis.

  40. Afl site bro

    That is awsome that he’s out though. His price won’t change for a few wweks. So he can sit on the bench until I can work out what to do with him. Very Happy. Martin is making just as much as he is, so He can go back on the ground

  41. bringing in davis for hunt this week and gray has to go…
    but for who? didak pav brennan or even sylvia?
    all are at reasonable price but thinking pav is more of mr consistant
    anyone know anything on sylvia besides he is getting some good scores haha?

  42. also putting it out there barlow is going to be my 6th midfielder playing better than f**king selwood and mitchell. is selwood getting seriously tagged or something watching a few cats games and u just cant see him at all?

  43. Jordan Roughead and Lewis Stevenson both missed out on the extra “r”

  44. With this news on dangerfield that makes phil davis all the more a good downgrade target and thats who im trading hunt to.

  45. Im not sure about Sylvia’s consistency? Will he be able to rack up those numbers consistenly, im thinking Chappy otherwise and stuff leaving any cash in the bank for my next big one.

    186,000 in bank
    Pears> Davis

    Warren > Slyvia or Chappy?

    • The Chap Man. Put his risks aside when he guarantees points like he does.

      • Chapman does deliver consistenty and I will give those hamstrings of his another go. Geelong wont be as likely to rest player this year as well, if there form isnt the same as the past few years. Sylvia too much of a risk in my mind

  46. Have the Morabito to JKT trade in my sights.

    I’m inclined to hold Shuey until he eventually returns, which he will, even if it’s in like another month. Not worth the trade out, I have plenty of other rookies to cash in the interim.

    Really hoping Duncan comes back this week though, I figure once Stokes and Varcoe are available Duncan might be gawn for the rest of the year (subject to injuries) so he needs to get his price rises in ASAP. As long as he plays I figure both he and Gumbleton will increase in price more than Didak will, so there’s no hurry on upgrading either of them just yet. Besides, I’d like to see Didak have two 100s in a row before deciding he’s even worth having as a keeper this year. If I want an unreliable forward, Jonno Brown and Stevie J will both be way cheaper than Didak in 2 weeks…

  47. To Didak or not to Didak…

  48. Flop out the Cox?

  49. guys i need help i have 50 grand spare dangerfield is injured i want to downgrade him for a rookie but WHO!

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