Jayden Short – Deck of DT 2025

Click here for 2025 Fantasy Classic prices.

Why should I pick him?

At the time of typing, almost 30% of the fantasy community has found room for Richmond defender Jayden Short in their initial AFL Fantasy team. The 2x premiership-winning Tiger has been a constant source of fantasy production in the 2020’s and yet, his production dipped significantly last year which means he enters the new campaign potentially 10-15 points underpriced. The popular belief is that he’ll bounce back to average 90+ and I’m backing Short to flirt with a top-10 DEF finish in 2025.

While last year was mediocre for Jayden Short in terms of fantasy points, the four seasons prior to that were exceptional. From 2020 to 2023 (adjusting scores in the COVID season), the star rebounding halfback averaged 93.9 points from 77 games and established himself as a top-line option in defence. Even with the Tigers struggling to produce lofty fantasy totals as a team, Short emerged as a safe investment for the community by scoring at least 70 in all but four games – one of which was injury-affected. Consistently +6ing his way to impressive point totals saw Short become a viable target in Draft leagues while also establishing himself annually as an upgrade option.

That level of reliability wasn’t evident in 2024 – with Short’s fantasy fall-off coinciding with Richmond’s tumble down the table. An underwhelming 80.5 fantasy points a game from 22 matches saw Short finish as the 25th-best fantasy defender in terms of total points as the likes of Daniel Rioli (17th) and Nick Valustin (23rd) ate into his production. While there was a stylistic tweak by head coach Adem Yze in his first year at the helm, the per-game statistics for Richmond didn’t change a hell of a lot – leading me to believe that Short’s subpar fantasy numbers were a bit of an anomaly from the usually consistent Tiger.

Before last season, Short had won over 60% of his career games and it’s fair to assume that percentage will continue to decline in 2025 with Richmond expected to lose plenty of footy games and challenge for the wooden spoon. Does that mean that the former B&F winner will once again struggle to score fantasy points again? Not necessarily. Last season’s average was dragged down by a subbed score of 11 in Round 5 thanks to a calf complaint and if you subtract that measly score, Short’s season average shoots up to 83.7 from 21 appearances.

At absolute worst, I think the now 29-year-old (happy birthday for Friday, Jayden) can benefit from Daniel Rioli’s departure and push his average back over the 90-point threshold. Rioli had the best season of his AFL career in 2024 and now that he has left for sunnier pastures, there should be enough points up for grabs to justify starting the season with Jayden Short. Someone has to score for Richmond, right?

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Be honest with me, how many times have you picked Jayden Short in your Classic team? Sure, he’s always been a solid Draft investment, but Richmond’s main distributor out of defence hasn’t produced an epic fantasy season that made him a must-have. So why should that change now?

Don’t get me wrong, a player priced at 80 who consistently averages 90-95 looms as a great starting choice with room to grow. However, I feel confident in saying this won’t be the first time we see Short register a triple-figure average and there are no guarantees he will return to fantasy relevance this season. While I view his 2024 fantasy campaign as a blip on the radar, it’s obvious that the Tigers are fully in rebuild mode now and the per-game averages are expected to dry up for Richmond’s veterans as they struggle to compete on a weekly basis. Short’s job isn’t under threat as they transition into a new era, but it’s fair to say the prime of his career may now be in the rearview mirror.

He still managed to lead the club for kick-ins and average a shade under 22 disposals with 5 marks a game last year, but Short also found himself overtaken by a handful of his teammates in terms of fantasy output. Over the aforementioned four-season stretch from 2020 to 2023, Short finished 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd in terms of fantasy market share (percentage of a team’s points scored by an individual player). In 2024, he slid to 6th in Richmond’s pecking order and that may be an indicator of a trend that will continue under Adem Yze’s leadership. During his first season as the Tigers’ head coach, the club finished 17th for disposals and fantasy points per game – two numbers I don’t think we’ll see increase with a healthy crop of youngsters entering the fold.

One could argue that with the likes of Daniel Rioli, Shai Bolton and Liam Baker leaving the club, there will be more points up for grabs for Jayden Short this year. However, you could also make the case that with those established players missing, the Tigers will struggle to even get their hands on the footy. Just because we expect the footy to be in their backline frequently during the 2025 season, that doesn’t mean that Richmond players will be touching it…

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

In summary, even though Richmond is expected to struggle in 2025 that shouldn’t stop Jayden Short from being fantasy-relevant. Don’t go betting on the rebounding Tiger to push career-best numbers or make his case for an All-Australian gig, but there is enough proof to suggest that Short will bounce back.

Hypothetically speaking, if Richmond were to average a similar per-game output fantasy-wise and Short improves his market share slightly, then at absolute worst, he should average close to 90 and become a solid stepping stone to a top 2 or 3 fantasy defender. Best case scenario, Short steps up in a time of need for his club and becomes a surprise top-6 DEF chance with an average of ≈95. Either way, he deserves to be picked to start the 2025 season.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @SportsbyFry for all things AFL Fantasy (and more)! Feel free to hit me up with any questions you have throughout the season. Got something to say about the Deck or AFL Fantasy in general? Join the conversation and use the hashtag #AFLFantasy.

Fry

An Australian coffee/burrito enthusiast who is the frustrated owner of 16 fantasy teams. Writer for SportsbyFry and DT Talk ?