Chook’s Rooks – Round 11

Like Motion City Soundtrack, the future freaks me out. According to segments of the science community, the first person to live to 1000 has already been born. That might be old news to some, especially Essendon supporters who realised long ago that Dustin Fletcher was on track for a four-figure birthday, but I was genuinely blown away. It got me thinking – not so much about serious stuff like how much more excited you’d be at retirement age knowing you’ve got 935 years up your sleeve as opposed to 35, or how China would not only be forced to revive its one-baby policy but ramp it up to one baby per suburb – but more on the impacts it would have on our Dream Teams.

For example, I consider myself a pretty devoted Joel Selwood DTer, having had him in my team almost every week of his AFL career, from his outstanding rookie season and in each of his, um, outstanding subsequent seasons. Now, the boy’s only been in the league a few years, so it’s no great claim to fame. But imagine if in, say, 300 years’ time, you could brag about having had him from the start? You get the feeling that Dave Swallow owners will be in that boat. An absolute jet in his first season of AFL, Gold Coast’s Swallow promises even more in the years to come and there’s little doubt that he’ll be an elite Dream Teamer sooner rather than later. He’s the kind of kid who could feature in your DT for the next 5, 50 or 500 years, if these scientists have got it right. This week, though, they’ve got a decision to make. With his byes out of the way and a tasty average of 76 points to date, Swallow presents as an excellent option for your seventh midfielder, someone to back up your big guns when they’re resting or injured. However, after producing his worst and third-worst scores of the season in the past two weeks, Swallow has stalled somewhat, dropping $5 grand this week, getting slapped with a new breakeven of 113 and looking primed for an upgrade to a fallen or on-the-rise premium. The absence of Swan for the next fortnight only intensifies the decision. So, what are you doing with the number-one draft pick? Are you going to suck him and see, or swallow a trade and put Dave in a DT grave? Let us know which route you’re taking in the comments.

Three-or-more gamers

While Swallow failed to reach the heights of his pre-bye form, two of his GC teammates had no problem cracking the tonne. Trent McKenzie, or more specifically, Trent McKenzie’s booming left boot, picked up 102 points on the wide expanses of the ground formerly known as Subi, while ruckman Zac Smith went even better – scoring a season-high 107 points, making that three centuries in his last four matches. Aaron who? The ruck’s proving a pretty lucrative role for Melbourne’s Stefan Martin, too, with the DT-listed defender making the most of Mark Jamar’s absence to chalk up a 97 that takes his season average to a very healthy 83 ppg. Another rookie-priced player available in the backline but playing elsewhere, Fremantle’s Nick Lower continues his hot form since many of us dumped him, this time racking up 89 DTs to send his price soaring to $273,500. He’s now the second-biggest money earner of this year’s rookie crop, just behind Smith. Essendon’s Michael Hibberd out-pointed teammate and fellow def-mid Dyson Heppell for the second time this season, but there was only a handball in it, with Heppell scoring an 81 and Hibberd among three rooksters to reach 83, the others being Sydney def-fwd Alex Johnson, who did it for the second week in a row, and Melbourne midfielder Michael Evans, who held his spot despite the return of Tom Scully and Jack Trengove. Late surges helped Carlton defender Nick Duigan and West Coast forward Jack Darling, both candidates for your eighth def/fwd position, get to 78 points apiece, while Geelong’s Nathan Vardy continued to tempt us to make a mountain of cash from a Sandilands downgrade trade with his second consecutive score in the 70s. All in all, it was a pretty solid week of scoring for our rookies, with the major frustration coming from Gold Coast defender Danny Stanley (season-low 48), Suns midfielder Daniel Harris (a 58 that saw him drop $11k), Port Adelaide def-mid Ben Jacobs (52 after 27 in the first quarter) and Brisbane midfielder Rohan Bewick (just 16 points makes him the biggest disappointment of all). You wouldn’t be happy if you’d held on to Gold Coast fwd-mid Dion Prestia this long either – his 27 and 43 points on return from a five-week break hardly inspiring – while a lot of the blokes who filled the Buddy-sized hole in our forward lines fluffed their chances to impress. I’m looking at you, Tom Lynch, Kieran Harper and Arryn Siposs, who all scored under 50 in what could be their only on-field action this year in many DTs.

Two gamers

The number of rookies who have now reached or exceeded their breakeven is so high that I didn’t even try to mention them all by name in the previous section. Clearly, then, we’re crying out for some viable downgrade targets so we can bank that cash, but it’s slim pickings in the two-game bracket once again. While Melbourne might not be a very DT-friendly club from a premium perspective, with it’s top two options – Jack Grimes and Colin Sylvia – also massive injury risks, the Demons are doing their best to provide us with some high-quality fresh meat in recent years. Michael Evans this week made $63k for those brave enough to pick up the hard-running-but-wayward-kicking Melbourne midfielder, while teammate Dan Nicholson looks the pick of those on the verge of their first price rise. Nicholson as shown the potential for rich points production, scoring 41 and 57 despite serving as the sub in both matches. He’s also attractive for his dual-eligibility as both a defender and midfielder, making a like-for-like recplacement for those with a Simon Buckley-type. The big question mark over his head is whether Dean Bailey has him ear-marked as a perma-sub in the same way that West Coast’s Andrew Gaff has been oft-used in the role. There’s also the question of job security, although Bailey seems willing to give the kids a chance and shelve some of the under-performing older players instead, and Aaron Davey’s injury looks to be a couple-of-months-er. If that’s scared you off Nicholson, then Geelong mid Josh Cowan might be your man. He’s had a go as the sub, too, scoring 53 after whipping off the green vest on debut in round 10, but then managing just 46 with full game time against the Western Bulldogs in round 11. Bulldog defender Christian Howard played his second game in the same match, working his way to 59 points against the Cats, following a 49-point performance in his first game against Hawthorn. Like I said, slim pickings.

One gamers

If you’re eager to downgrade a forward, then you’ll have to skip the two gamers and take a chance on one of these blokes. When I say “one”, I really do mean it, with only one forward among the nine rookie-priced players who played their first game in round 11. That’s Melbourne’s Jeremy Howe, a high-leaping forward who made the most of the Demons’ strong second half to grab 86 points against Essendon. While he’s not the power-forward that the Demons are crying out for, he did enough on debut to suggest he’ll be given more opportunities this year. Also in the 80s for the Demons was James Strauss, a defender who cops a $149,500 price tag courtesy of the fact that he played the first two home-and-away games of the 2010 season. The high price is off-putting enough, but the fact that Strauss still seems to lack confidence at the top level makes him a hugely risky pick, in my opinion. It’s a shame, as he’s a terrific kick and was talked up as a chance to play the lucrative “quarterback” role in the pre-season. Yet another young Demon entered the DT fray on Friday, with 207cm ruckman Max Gawn rotating with Martin though the ruck and forward line. That resulted in 56 points for Gawn and I wouldn’t think you’d get much more than that out of him each week, plus Mark Jamar doesn’t look to be too far away, either. After threatening to break into the Hawthorn side for a few weeks now, Jordan Lisle finally got his chance when Buddy Franklin’s calf ruled him out, although Lisle had to be content with a bit over a half, getting subbed out of the match against Fremantle in the third quarter with 47 points to his name. In an increasingly common theme, St Kilda, Carlton, Essendon and the Gold Coast also made their round 11 debutants wear the subs vests, helping to explain the low scores of Tom Simpkin (Saints defender, $92,500, 40 points), Tom Ledger (Saints midfielder, $92,500, 35 points), Zach Tuohy (Blues defender, $92,500, 12 points), Alex Browne (Bombers defender, $92,500, 12 points) and Taylor Hine (Gold Coast def-mid, $97,600, 5 points). It didn’t help Hine’s case that he was asked to hold Big Cox, either.