Pearcey’s B-E.S.T. – Round 3

Welcome to the 3^rd edition of Pearcey’s B-E.S.T. With the first price changes going through in Real Dream Team and the second lot of price movements in AFL Fantasy, we have plenty of statistics to pore over this week.

 

E=MC2?

It seems the formula used for the price changes in AFL Fantasy is one of life’s great mysteries and will probably never be solved. Fortunately the Fantasy Freako includes every player’s break-even in his Rave each week, so make sure you get hold of a copy (sign-up at www.championdata.com.au).

 

Listed below are the top ten best break-evens for the upcoming round (AFL Fantasy break evens only):

P. Ambrose (ESS)         B/E -22

B. Griffiths (RIC)          B/E -19

X. Ellis (WCE)              B/E -17

T. Langdon (COL)        B/E -7

E. Templeton (STK)     B/E -7

L. Dunstan (STK)          B/E -5

D. Buckley (CAR)         B/E -4

J. Polec(PA)                 B/E -4

J. Laidler(SYD)             B/E -4

J. Merrett(ESS)            B/E -2

No doubt the great man Jeppa will cover most of the above in his weekly article, Jeppa’sJuniors. Make sure you don’t miss it!

 

Doing a Darren Donaghey…

Some months ago a British radio station ran a competition to find the man that was ‘punching above his weight’ more than anyone else. The eventual winner was a man by the name of Darren Donaghey, who despite his looks, had managed to maintain a long-term relationship, and have a child, with his fiancée Kate. Photo below:

This brings me to a list of players who are ‘punching above their weight’ or more to the point scoring Fantasy points at a rate higher than their price would suggest. I have purposefully steered away from the rookie-priced players as that isJeppa’s domain.

 

Jackson Merrett (ESS):

Position: FWD, Average: 112, B-E: -2 (Fantasy)
Price: $382,972 (Fantasy), $351,100 (RDT)

Merrett is relishing his new found freedom under new Essendon coach Bomber Thompson’s free-flowing, and high fantasy-point-scoring reign. Merrett had a career-high 35 disposals in Sunday night’s win against Carlton. As Merrett’s price has already risen over $110,000 in AFL Fantasy and $80,000 in Real Dream Team I suspect if you haven’t already jumped on you may have missed the boat.

 

Jack Macrae (WB):

Position: MID, Average: 111.7, B-E: 24 (Fantasy)
Price: $427,354 (Fantasy), $403,600 (RDT)

Macrae has started the season with an absolute bang, starring in the pre-season and continuing into the season proper, with scores so far of 122, 82 & 131. I’m not sure if the 19 year old can keep up this form but he might be the perfect trade option if you have an under-performing ‘premium’ you want to get rid of.

 

Matthew Jaensch (ADE):

Position: DEF, Average: 101.3, B-E: 23 (Fantasy)
Price: $389,463 (Fantasy), $364,800 (RDT)

Jaensch has seemed to take on the role vacated by the injured Ricky Henderson, which has led to an average over the first 3 rounds of 101.3. This is Jaensch’s 5^th year in the competition, with previous averages of 59, 68, 62 & 57. As long as Henderson is out I think Jaensch is a decent option in any team’s backline.

 

Matthew Thomas (RIC):

Position: MID, Average: 93.3, B-E: 31 (Fantasy)
Price: $359,594 (Fantasy), $320,100 (RDT)

Thomas started the season off with back-to-back hundreds (108 & 107) but came crashing back to normality on the weekend with a score of 65, mainly due to the return of Daniel Jackson into the Tiger’s midfield. If you have Thomas in your team I suggest holding him for another 2-3 weeks and then trading him out, and if you don’t have him, don’t bother.

 

Lachie Hunter (WB):

Position: FWD/MID, Average: 85, B-E: 29 (Fantasy)
Price: $336,268 (Fantasy), $320,000 (RDT)

The second-year redhead from the Bulldogs has scored well in the early rounds, which has led to a decent average and a steady early price rise. With Forward scores being very up and down early this season, Hunter is a viable trade option as his price is still relatively cheap compared to his early average.

 

Down, Down, Prices are down!

On the flip-side to the guys ‘punching above their weight’ there are a number of players who have failed to perform so far this season. Their averages are down and with a couple of price changes in AFL Fantasy so is their price. A list of the players who need to lift their game as follows:

 

Ryan Griffen (WB):

Position: MID, Average: 46.5, B-E: 156 (Fantasy)
Price: $487,568 (Fantasy), $576,300 (RDT)

For a guy that averaged 105 last season, Griffen has got off to an under-whelming start to 2014. After missing round 1 with a back injury, Griffen has posted scores of 45 & 48 and his price has dropped over $80,000 in AFL Fantasy. Definitely one to keep an eye on to pick up when his price bottoms out but I would be waiting until he starts pumping out some decent consistent scores first.

 

Drew Petrie (NM):

Position: FWD, Average: 33.7, B-E: 130 (Fantasy)
Price: $353,578 (Fantasy), $388,400 (RDT)

Petrie has not averaged less than 80 for the past 3 seasons, but has got off to a terrible start in 2014. A non-vested score of 11 last weekend against Port Adelaide was absolutely woeful! Petrie has dropped in price over $100,000 in AFL Fantasy and almost $80,000 in Real Dream Team so if you think he can return to his previous years form I would be waiting another week or two and then jumping on. Amazing to think you may be able to get a player of Petrie’s (past) calibre for under $300,000!

 

Travis Cloke (COL):

Position: FWD, Average: 48, B-E: 128 (Fantasy)
Price: $402,393 (Fantasy), $435,300 (RDT)

Cloke has averaged over 90 in 2 of the past 3 seasons, but this season he is only averaging 48! In Cloke’sdefense, the delivery into the forward line down at Collingwood hasn’t been the best and they have had a tough start to the season with 2 losses out of 3 games, so I expect Cloke’s fortunes to turn around soon. With a drop in price of $100,000 in Fantasy and $70,000 in RDT it may be time to consider Cloke for your team.

 

 

Dane Swan (COL):                 

Position: MID, Average: 85, B-E: 143 (Fantasy)
Price: $555,698 (Fantasy), $584,100 (RDT)

Wait until he drops under $550,000 and then trade him into your team. Enough said.

 

Matthew Leuenberger (BRI):

Position: RUC, Average: 64.3, B-E: 107 (Fantasy)
Price: $412,156 (Fantasy), $427,000 (RDT)

The big Berger has had to share the ruck duties this season with the newly-acquired Trent West, which has led to a big reduction in his Fantasy scores. I would suggest staying away from the Berger as I there are a number of other better options in the Ruck department. If West happens to go down with an injury or gets dropped, Leuey might be one to keep an eye on as he scores much better as the sole ruckman.

 

A number of other players who can now be picked up (in AFL Fantasy) for a lot less than they started the season:

Travis Boak

AFL Fantasy: Starting price – $543,300, Current price – $482,291
RDT: Starting price – $547,600, Current price – $505,700

P Dangerfield

AFL Fantasy: Starting price – $534,700, Current price – $474,692
RDT: Starting price – $538,900, Current price – $498,000

Scott Selwood
AFL Fantasy:  Starting price – $587,500, Current price – $528,414
RDT: Starting price – $592,100, Current price – $549,000

Todd Goldstein

AFL Fantasy:  Starting price – $487,100, Current price – $433,159
RDT: Starting price – $490,900, Current price – $457,000

Will Minson

AFL Fantasy:  Starting price – $498,100, Current price – $450,733
RDT: Starting price – $502,100, Current price – $470,100

 

Stats, stats, and more STATS!

Round 3 bought up a few statistics/numbers that I would like to share:

159 – The highest score for the round (and the season so far) scored by Adam Treloar from GWS. Treloar is in his 3^rd season in the AFL and has all the hallmarks of a future (maybe even current?) Fantasy star.

73 – Points scored by the player with the highest average over the first 2 rounds, Nathan Jones. Hopefully you didn’t decide to trade him in to your team after his huge start to the season.

6 – Number of players that have played all 3 rounds and scored over 100 each game. They are Shane Mumford, Joel Selwood, Paul Chapman, Callan Ward, Rory Sloane and Matt Priddis. If you want consistency in your team you can’t go past these blokes.

57 – Current ranking for DT Talk’s Warnie after his blistering start to the season. How good would it be to see one of ‘The Traders’ win the entire competition!

28,023 – Total points scored by all players in round 2, slightly up on last week (27,834). Hawthorn led the way with a team score of 1962, closely followed by the high-scoring Bombers with a team score of 1945.

60 – Number of players that scored 100+ in round 3, in what seemed to be a fairly high scoring round.

2481 – The score of the ‘Lovemachines’ coached by Bevan Higgins, who had the highest score for the week in Round 3.

Treloar scored 159 points this week, but scores 0 for this hair-do

2 more, 2 more!

We have a maximum of two trades to use this week in both AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team, although both are under very different scenarios, as follows:

AFL Fantasy – 2 trades per week, every week. Use them or lose them.

Real Dream Team – 2 trades per week (3 in bye weeks) but a total of 30 trades for the season.

This week would be the last week to make ‘corrective’ trades, by trading out those players who are under-performing and bringing in the players who are going to make you some serious dollars. Look for the players with the best break-evens and get them into your team ASAP! Even though you have missed a price-rise (or 2) already, there is still some cash to be made.

Also, keep an eye on the ins and outs this weekend as a number of fantasy relevant players were injured again on the weekend. Early rumours are that Port will be without the services of Angus Monfries and Chad Wingard and Fremantle will missChris Mayne and Michael Walters (Walters possibly for the season) so look to trade any player who may be out for any length of time. With Walters and Mayne set to miss, does this result in the return of Colin Sylvia?

And always remember, sometimes the best trade advice can be not to trade at all. If you are happy with the way your team is at the moment there is no need to trade just for tradings sake. Stick to your guns and give all 30 of your squad another run-around in round 4.

 

Well, that’s a wrap for Round 3. Please feel free to offer any suggestions as to any other information you would like to see, or provide feedback on what you thought of the article, either by commenting below or by hitting me up on Twitter at @pearcey47