Fantasy Cycling TDU S4 – Gorilla 1, Kitten 0

Stage 4 Review

A stage that many predicted would be fairly boring with a bunch sprint at Victor Harbor turned out to be anything but boring.

Unlike all the previous stages the breakaways were chased down by the peloton today – with OGE and BMC riders leading the chase down.  A clear signal that Gerrans was after the intermediate sprint time bonuses and BMC was going to try and stop him.

Gerrans picked up bonus time at both intermediate sprints as did Haas – who is having a great tour.  Ulissi also got in on the act at the second sprint.  Evans missed out – partly because of bike problems, but I doubt he had the speed to be there anyway.

Adam Hansen did enough to take outright leadership in King of Mountains – Pacman Clarke didn’t come out to play after his attempts at breaking early came to nothing.

With 30 knot southerlies and the course route moving east and west across the Fleurieu Peninsular, the threat of echelons and cross wind splits was very real.  When the splits came Marcel Kittel was on the wrong side of the gap.  Lotto (team Greipel) moved to the front of the peloton and upped the speed to make sure Kittel and other sprinters with him couldn’t get back on.

However, it was a pretty weak effort by Giant-Shimano to have Kittel so far back that he was vulnerable to an obvious threat. And they didn’t make much effort to get back on.  This group had a pretty easy day eventually finishing nearly 14 minutes behind the leaders.

With Kittel and a lot of sprinters gone, and OGE and Gerrrans tired after chasing intermediate sprints, Greipel was unchallenged at the finish … his leadout man even came in second.  Cannondale’s Viviani showed a lot of zip to come in third.

Stage 5 – McLaren Vale – Willunga Hill

Stage 5 is mostly an easy ride of 3 laps around McLaren Vale vineyards.  However at the end there are 2 climbs up Willunga Hill, both the same road – 3kms at 6-7%.  The stage finishes on the top of the hill, so no sprinters are going to win this.

I think we can expect GC contenders to chase down breakaways and try to get sprint time bonuses as they did in stage 4.  These are also the last 2 KOMs so riders in contention will try for those as well.  I expect all the all rounder climbers  in GC contention to fill the stage placings.  But I expect Cadel Evans will trail the leaders all day and finish with same time as them – this should be enough to win him overall GC.

Keep in mind that only the first climb of Willunga gives fantasy KOM points.

Trade Talk

Basically out with sprinters, in with GC riders in contention and climbers.

The question is how many trades to make. I think I can get enough out of the riders I’m bringing in to pay the extra 10 points to make 3 trades.  So for me it is out with Greipel, Kittel and Cantwell, welcome back Gesink, Porte and Thomas.  Although Nathan Haas looks pretty handy as well for only 7.4 credits.  Dare I pay extra to make 4 trades?  I’ll sleep on it.

 

That’s it from me.  Good luck.  If you have any questions of comments please post below or contact me by twitter on@NixTrader.  Also post your trades and your views on how the stage will play out.  It would be good to see what trades people are making.