Player | Shai Bolton |
Club | Fremantle Dockers |
Position | Mid/Fwd |
Price | $754,000 |
Bye | 0 & 13 |
2023 avg | 74 |
2023 gms | 22 |
Proj. avg | 85 |
Draft range | Late F1 |
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Why should I pick him?
Some of the biggest breakouts in seasons past have come from players who have moved clubs in the off-season. Think Brodie Grundy, Zac Fisher, Rylie Bonnar and Jordan Dawson, as some recent examples. Players change clubs for a number of reasons – moving home, looking for a better role, or seeking a more competitive club to compete for finals. Shai Bolton fits into a few of those categories, but for fantasy purposes we are most interested in the last. For a goal kicking mid/forward, this could dramatically improve his fantasy outlook compared to last season. As a Richmond fan, it was obvious that Bolton wasn’t at his best last season. It was most pertinent in the back half of the year, when it became obvious that Richmond were looking to rebuild. In the first 11 games, up until the bye, Shai averaged 83ppg which was only 3 points down from the previous year.
Shai is a midfielder, who often plays the “Dusty Role” (starting in the midfield then pushing forward). Last year, Richmond were the 2nd lowest fantasy scoring side in the past 11 years, struggling to get the ball out of their defensive 50, and ranking 3rd last for inside 50s. This combination was a recipe for disaster for Bolton, who looked disinterested in the 2nd half of last season – and who could blame him. But now that he’s moved to Fremantle, things will be (hopefully for Freo fans) much different. Going from a team who was the wooden spoon and the 2nd last in fantasy scoring, to a team competing for finals who were top 8 in fantasy points last year, is a major improvement for a player like Shai Bolton.
Shai’s market share of Richmond’s fantasy scoring last season was 5.3% and 5.8% in 2023. If he were to have a similar market share at Freo, his averages would have been 81 & 89 respectively. With a ceiling of 89, he could push close to a top 6 forward at a nice discounted starting price. As do all Fremantle players, Bolton has a nice juicy round 13 bye which is only shared by Saint Kilda, making it the best mid-season bye round to have for our premiums.
Why shouldn’t I pick him?
While going to a better side is all good and well in theory, to see an improved uptick in scoring he does need to maintain the 50% or more CBA role he’s had for the past 5 seasons at Richmond. Fremantle’s midfield is a much better unit than the one he’s leaving at Richmond so he might find himself playing more as a true high half-forward, or even deeper in the goal square.
The market share argument seems to make sense on the surface, but historically Fremantle’s points seem to be concentrated in their midfield and backline as they play a mark-heavy style of game. This doesn’t exactly strike me as the kind of game style that suits big Shai Bolton scoring. If we were to see Freo speed things up such as Hawthorn did last season, that would really get me excited, but nothing we’ve seen from Fremantle recently suggests this is likely.
Even with a high 80s upside, it’s only roughly 15 points of upside which isn’t exactly screaming must-have, and the risk of him being more of a stay-at-home forward means there’s some downside. Perhaps we’re better off looking at either a more safe top 6 forward, or going cheaper to generate more cash.
Deck of DT Rating.
Queen
The F1 position is one of the more difficult positions to fill this year after locking in the popular 4 forwards. For this season, someone like Shai Bolton needs to be considered. With a friendly draw to begin the year, Shai could get off to a hot start in a team certain to produce many more fantasy points than last year’s Richmond. But how much can that improve Bolton’s scoring, and does he maintain the role to reap those rewards? Something to watch closely in pre-season, if nothing else.