Jy Simpkin – Deck of DT 2025

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Why should I pick him?

Okay okay I know. It’s probably not a name you expected to see. There’s just so many flags to picking a player like this at F1:

• Averaged 89 post-bye which doesn’t make him an automatic pick
• 53% CBAs across the entire H&A season
• Only one game over 80% CBAs
• 4 other inside midfielders at the club who complicate the rotation

You are probably looking at those numbers and already turned away.

But these stats belong to Jason Horne-Francis who is 40% owned at $919K.

Simpkin’s numbers are identical but only in 1.5% of teams despite being $138K cheaper. With me now?

Jy Simpkin is the unique option in the FWD line in a year where it seems all too easy to pick the same six (or eight) forwards as everyone else. Based on current ownership, you can get the JHF/Macrae/Phillipou/Smith/Daniel/Hewett/Kako/Curtin combination; eight forwards all with at least 35% ownership. The next highest is Dylan Moore at a measly 11%! It is stunning how similar every team is and it can cause us to forget about other options this preseason. Simpkin is in just 1.5% of teams. Don’t let this put you off. At season’s start last year we had Isaac Heeney (1.63%), Dayne Zorko (1.22%) and Jye Caldwell (0.74%) in a similar range. Epic picks are the most unexpected!

His 2024 season was a struggle before it even started. Concussed in a heavy incident with Jimmy Webster in preseason, Simpkin missed R1. Tom Powell slid in as a replacement midfielder, so when Simpkin returned he was playing as a forward. Across 7 games, he averaged only 56.5 before a quad injury ruled him out until the bye. North Melbourne reach their bye winless and something needs to change. Returning in R13, Simpkin plays a remarkable game and scores 132 fantasy points. Importantly he attended every centre bounce while on field for the first three quarters, before saving the game for the Roos by kicking 2 last-quarter goals. The captain received 10 coaches votes in North Melbourne’s first win with 88% midfield time (estimate). Simpkin is back in the midfield mix.

When Simpkin played midfield after the bye, his scoring was okay. I can’t tell you it’s a 120 average, but with respect to the forwards it was decent enough. As mentioned above, Simpkin (& Horne-Francis) went at 89 post-bye. Only Daniels (93), Moore (100) & Phillipou (106 in 4 games) were better in that time period, based on the FWDs available to us right now. Simpkin was North’s 2nd CBA midfielder at 65% usage. This is higher than all other players with FWD status other than tagger Toby Bedford. It’s a decent enough role to be value on draft day, if you’re simply looking at the list of FWDs based on average.

So what does Simpkin do in 2025? I’ve decided on a projected average of 87. This would mean he has 10pts of upside, which is something a lot of other F1 contenders look unlikely to have. The reason he has this is simple – a shocking start to the year with concussion, being sent to the forward line, and then a quad injury. North Melbourne also went winless and only averaged 1448 points as a team (ranked 16th). In the second half of the year, North Melbourne were averaging 1518 (competition average). These 70 extra points helped players like Tristan Xerri & Simpkin to average better in the second half. If we are expecting the Kangaroos to be better in 2025, this will help their fantasy scoring, and hopefully their captain is a big part of the improvement.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

The worry will be role. North Melbourne are blessed with midfield talent thanks to their high draft picks. Luke Davies-Uniacke can’t play anywhere else. George Wardlaw is tracking nicely, with his potential TOG% increase the biggest threat to Simpkin. Tom Powell was used in all roles last year, so there is uncertainty there. Will Phillips was used as a tagger on occasions last season. And throughout the year, Harry Sheezel experienced more midfield time. You’d think this would continue to grow for the Roos’ young star. These players were all factors into why Simpkin wasn’t able to play as much midfield as he did when he averaged 96 points in 2021 & 2022.

Most notably, the Kangaroos added experience in Caleb Daniel & Luke Parker during the trade period. This generates a flow-on effect to all other players in the team. If Caleb Daniel plays half-back, where does Colby McKercher play? If McKercher is used up the ground, does that mean Sheezel has to play inside midfield? Luke Parker could play a MID/FWD split like Simpkin did in 2024. This either means Simpkin is freed up to play consistent time in the midfield, or the opposite where it means Simpkin is playing fully forward. Unfortunately at this stage of preseason, there are too many questions over North Melbourne’s structure which is evident in Simpkin’s low ownership.

Compared to other midfielders his age, Simpkin lacks a scoring history we can trust. He’s never averaged 100+. His best was consective years of 96 in 2021 & 2022, before an injury interrupted 86 in 2023. If Simpkin hasn’t dominated fantasy yet, will he ever? If you’re looking at him in Draft, this probably means you are hoping your league mates take him. You can take a definite premium forward before him, or a better value pick much later in the draft. Simpkin is also an unreliable scorer. He can have big scores, but it doesn’t make up for not tonning up most weeks. According to the new AFL Fantasy Draft platform, Simpkin has one of the lowest consistency ratings of top FWDs at just 68%.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

Simpkin is in just 1.5% of starting teams. For now, my team is one of those. Simpkin averaged 89 points post-bye despite the midfield muddle. This is 13 points higher than his current price, so if was to continue that I’d happily take it. Could he go more? He would need to be spending over 80% of the game as a midfielder like he used to. With North Melbourne’s depth, I think they’ll continue with a wider spread. I will be watching intently to see how North Melbourne set up their team this preseason, and whether Simpkin, armed with FWD status, can be a beneficiary.

Jaiden works at AFL Fantasy and has been creating new stats for the upgraded AFL Fantasy Draft platform. A new projected scores system is more accurate than ever before, unlocking new features like H2H matchup win probability and easier analysis of your free agents. Create your league today!

Jaiden

Started playing Dream Team as soon as I was old enough to use a computer! Growing up in the Fantasy mindset inspired my passion for statistics, so now with a degree, I provide new metrics and unique insights into the game. Follow me on Twitter as I dive into new content for AFL Fantasy.