Christian Petracca – Deck of DT 2025

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BREAKING NEWS: Oh boy … this was penned during the week and the timing couldn’t be worse! As reported on Friday by the club, Petracca has cracked a rib at training. There isn’t a timeline at this point as we approach two months from round one. This might be enough to put a line through him – especially for the recovery and more specifically, the mental demons attached following last year’s injuries. I have decided to leave the Deck of DT as it was written. Call it lazy, if you will… but hopefully you enjoy the read regardless.

Why should I pick him?

We’re getting Petracca priced at 90. This is the lowest price point we’ve seen him since pre-2020.

Petracca first averaged over 100 in 2020 when he went at 107.8 (86.2*1.25 BCV). That was followed by a career best 110.9 in the Dees’ premiership winning year, 102.5 and 106.0. Excellent numbers over four years of dominance for CP5. Over those years he had centre bounce attendance percentages of 77, 79, 75 and 61. This ranked him a close third behind Oliver and Viney as the core group in the Melbourne engine room. They ran a fairly tight rotation during this period.

On King’s Birthday, Petracca suffered a horrific injury that spelled the end of his season. Even this was a game where he posted 51 in half a game of footy which lowered his final average (he was averaging 93.5 before that fateful day).

Although his CBAs were down a bit in 2024, it wasn’t catastrophic. His 56% was his lowest on record, but taking out his 17% in the injured game and the game when he booted five goals for just 30% CBAs, he was still on par with what he’s done in 2023 where he attended 61%. In saying this, it has been noticable from the eye test that he’s played more forward of the ball in the last couple of seasons.

We can spend time looking back, but at 90, there’s around 10 points upside in Petracca if the Demons can climb up the ladder (both in real terms and Fantasy points for) and he’s fit.

On the latter, CP5 was on a modified program and was held back a bit before Christmas, but everything is ticking along nicely now. Photos have shown that he’s in terrific nick and they club are happy with where he’s at. While I’m not totally concerned about role at this stage, it would be nice to see that he remained as that third banana with around 60% CBAs to give himself the best opportunity to score.

 

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Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Is that low-to-mid 90s return pre-injury what we can expect from the 29-year-old moving forward? It could be the case as he becomes that more traditional MID/FWD.

The lower floor was a worry last season. In five of his first 12 games (I’m still not counting that injured match), he scored sub-80 with a low score of 64. In 2023, there was just one game under 80 (a 75) from the 25 matches he played. This coupled with 100s in 38% of games last year compared 68% in 2023 tells some stories.

Last year was a shocker for the Dees both on and off the field. They finished 14th after being 4th (two games off top spot), 2nd and 1st. There was a bit going on in the club culture stakes with Clayton Oliver’s tumultuous off-season, Joel Smith’s dramas and other boardroom dramas. The optimist in me hopes that all of that is behind them, but scars can linger on.

As can the scars of that shocking injury on King’s Birthday. Petracca spent time in hospital and it was fairly common knowledge the he and his family weren’t happy with how it all played out and handled by the club. There was even some exploration of a trade from all reports. While we don’t believe there to be bad blood now, some of this culture stuff may pop its head up. Also – the actual mental demons from the severe injury could be a factor.

The loss on Alex Neal-Bullen via trade to Adelaide might be an issue for Petracca’s consistent role. Also Kozzy Pickett misses the first three games through suspension. They’re going to need to work out how they structure up forward and it could be a moving feast early days. Could CP5 be part of the Lazy Susan as the swap the plates around? Something to consider and to watch.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

I’m a big fan of Petracca, but some one reason or another, I haven’t had him in my Fantasy team even when he’s flying. His consistency and high floor has probably got a bit to do with it. But also that worry about playing forward – which he does so well. I’m torn as to whether I pick CP5 or not. There’s definite upside … his value is undeniable, but there are a few questions and some things that may not go his way early on. The big positive is the Dees don’t have an early bye this year. The underpriced premium who will play through the first part of the season (and also handy is that they are the second last mid-season bye).

In Draft, that 90 average ranks him as the 35th best MID-only player. If he can get it to 100, that puts him inside the top 20. He was on the DPP watchlist last year and I guess he would have to be there again this year too. Maybe throwing him up a few spots is a good idea for Draft. If all goes wrong, he might pick up that FWD status and be a brilliant pick there.

A big pre-season watch for me and a big chance to make the Warne Dawgs … but he’s not quite there yet.

Warnie

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT