Clayton Oliver – Deck of DT 2025

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Why should I pick him?

If we’ve got a fit Clayton Oliver, then he is a must-have in your AFL Fantasy Classic team.

Let’s have a look at what he’s done since entering the competition in 2016. It has been (almost) a decade of dominance as he played 13 games in his debut season and then went bang in the sophomore year, averaged triple figures. The next six seasons saw a season average low of 105.9 and he became one of the most reliable players who suited up in just about every game.

I could go on all day, but check out his career scores over at DFS Australia. So many great things to take out of his numbers including his multiple 150+ scores, PPM over 1.0 for most of his career and one of the most consistent centre-bounce players we’ve seen.

Unfortunately, the last 18 months haven’t been the best for Clarry.

While his Fantasy numbers look good on paper with that 113.8 average including 14 tons (7 of which were 120+), he missed 12 weeks with a hamstring injury that was frustrating for him and the club. He made it back into the team and played through the finals. The off-season came we learned more about Oliver’s personal challenges. These include mental health battles, hospitalisation and his license being suspended on medical grounds. He left the pre-season training camp early to focus on his health. It was fair to say he didn’t have a good pre-season, rejoining the group closer to the practice games.

The season itself was a bit of a disaster. That 77.7 average was his worst (by 24 points!!) on everything since his debut season. His top score of 114 came in round one and he only managed three other Fantasy tons. The floor was a major issue. H scores under 60 five times (43, 45, 26, 53, 47)… one of these were sub or injury affected as he had played 75% time on ground in all of them. To put this into context, the last time he scored under 60 was in 2016; his first season.

Oliver is priced at 77.7 as he played 21 games – he missed the last two  as the Dees put him in for season ending surgery on his hand which hampered him throughout the season. There was also a knee issue that impacted his year as well as broken ribs that interrupted and disrupted his season.

Tackling was one key stat he was down on (average of 4 down from 6.7, 5.5 and 5.4 in the last three seasons and was around 6.5 in each the four years prior to that). Marks took a hit as well, returning 2.8 per game after averaging 4.2 the year before. And the simple disposal numbers were as low as they’ve been since 2016.

This is what makes him a bargain that will be hard to pass up. From his best, Oliver is 36 points cheaper (in monetary value, that’s a bit of $350k). Even his he goes halfway there – let’s say he averaged 95 – that would be a win! Oliver was back early to training and ticking all the boxes this pre-season.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Aside from anything obvious – such as any setbacks on or off the track during the pre-season – it’s all about what you think Clarry can do.

I say 95 would be a win. It would, but anything less wouldn’t make him a knockout pick. There’s safety in numbers at the moment with 40% of Classic coaches with him in their team and that mitigates risk… but there is still some risk.

Can we put everything down to a limited pre-season and Clarry’s personal issues? He was still out there for the first 21 games of the season, only missing the last two for that hand surgery. Has the ceiling gone? There were just four tons and one over 110 which was round one’s 114. The Dees are fading as a Fantasy team with season totals sliding backwards over the last couple of seasons (they ranked 13th for Fantasy points for in 2024). There are some excuses – outside of Oliver, there was Petracca’s brutal injury and a heap of different players running through the guts.

Draft also presents questions. He’s most certainly going to be drafted higher than the 63 ranking he has for midfielders. Back to triple-figures? That slots him inside the top 20 based on last year’s numbers. My 103 prediction is top 15, but are there some safer players around that range? Someone will be willing to get him in that top 20 midfielders off the board … how much do you want shares in Oliver?

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

For me, Oliver is a fairly low-risk pick at under $800k. He will fill M4-ish for most teams in Classic when round one rolls around. No early bye is another bonus considering we have a few value plays who will have a bye between rounds two-to-four.

Oliver returned early on the track and Petracca is tracking well after his season was derailed. The two key components of the Dees’ midfield, should bring some stability to the engine room. We should see an increase in Oliver’s CBAs as he had 71% last year, down from 81, 86 and 87 in the three seasons prior.

I’m backing in a motivated Clarry to be back to triple-figures … with the hope he can be a season-long keeper up towards that 110 that he has pretty much done most of his career. Bring it on!

Warnie

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT