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Deck of Dream Team

Jack Sinclair – Deck of DT 2024

The two-time Top 10 Holmesy looks at the Mulleted Saint.

Player Jack Sinclair
Club Saint Kilda
Position DEF
Price $922,000
Bye 0, 15
2023 avg 102.2
2023 gms 23
Proj. avg 98-102
Draft range 2nd or 3rd defender off the board

Click here for 2024 Fantasy Classic prices.

Why should I pick him?

Over the last 2 years, Jack Sinclair has been as a consistent defender premium as we can get. After 7 years in the competition without averaging over 80, Sinclair broke through in 2022 averaging 102.9, before backing it up last year with a 102.2, seeing him the 3rd highest defender by average and 1st for total points. Having only missed one game in the last 3 years, we now have a decent sample size that Sinclair is a genuine gun of the competition and a bonafide premium for us.

When picking a starting squad, I generally like to pick one player who should be very close to the top of their line who still prevents a little bit of value. There are a number of question marks surrounding the higher averaging defenders from last year:

Nick Daicos – Absolute gun and primed for another breakout, but has an early bye and a likely Finn tag in round 4

James Sicily – Career season by 10 points after averaging career high marks that will be very difficult to replicate. Do the hawks get better?

Luke Ryan – Career season of 99. Is their value or can he back it up?

Nic Newman – Potential value after the way he finished but who knows how the backline looks with Williams and potentially Doch returning. Also round 2 bye

Sheezel – Potential move to the midfield / forward line? Too many unknowns for me to have confidence

I could keep going but as you can see, there’s doubt surrounding a lot of the highly priced defenders. The Saints were the highest scoring fantasy team last year by a long way and under the Ross Lyon system, you would imagine that stays quite the same as he develops his game plan. Jack Sinclair will be a big part of his system so I would find it hard for him not to be plus or minus 3 points of his current priced at figure

St Kilda FC on X: "Jack Sinclair's calves have also been named in the All-Australian squad. https://t.co/Uw9tUueFfg" / X

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

With our starting squads, we are trying to find some value in each of the 30 players we pick in our squads. Although I believe Sinclair to be a safe player, he may not necessarily represent any value in our starting squads and thus, you should be able to pick him up as a top 6 defender at some point during the season around his current price once your rookies and mid pricers have made cash. Sinclair has traditionally dominated at Marvel stadium, averaging 105 there compared with 98.7 away (stats courtesy of DC). With the Saints having just 5 of 14 games at Marvel before their bye, you could potentially back Sinclair to have a slower start to the season and to pick him later.

The other elephant in the room is the emergence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, who really broke out for us in 2023. Primed as one of the main ball users off half back, does his continued rise combined with the recruitment of another outside runner in Liam Henry limit Sinclair’s output? Data from 2023 suggests no, but it is something to flag moving into 2024. The last reason has to do with just how far ahead of total fantasy points Saint Kilda were compared with the rest of the comp. As a team, the Saints averaged 1655 points per game, which was 70 points better than the next best in Carlton and 120 higher than the league average of 1535. If you are someone that believes in outliers eventually returning to the pack, you would assume that with Saint Kilda being such an outlier, their scores might drop closer towards the norm of the AFL and thus we could see a small regression in some of the top end scoring.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

Sinclair is not someone I am at this stage looking to start in my starting squad. He however is someone I will look to target at the optimal time throughout the season, potentially post bye where they only leave Marvel Stadium once or twice. I have no doubt he will be a top 6 defender and likely still a top 3 defender and for that reason, he is a KING rating.

Follow Holmesy on X at @Holmesyheroes. Don’t miss his content as part of the PODPOD.

2 x #AFLFantasy top 10 finisher. Car hunter. 🚗

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