Connor Rozee – Deck of DT 2024

Player	Connor Rozee
Club	Port Adelaide
Position	MID
Price	$956,000
Bye	0 & 13
2023 avg	105.9
2023 gms	23
Proj. avg	112
Draft range	Pick 8-13

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Why should I pick him?

The newly appointed Port Adelaide skipper enjoyed a break out 2023 campaign, elevating his 2022 average of 88.1 to 105.9 and clearly marking himself as a premium midfield option. But after the 17 point bump, is there more scope to continue his upward trajectory and be a genuine option for our starting sides in 2024? Let’s take a look.

There are two avenues of reasoning for why I think Rozee can be a solid starting pick. Narrative and data.

Narrative wise, I’m under the impression Rozee will be doing everything in his power to have a massive year as a young first year captain. At 24, he takes the keys to the side at the same age as good friend and mentor Travis Boak became captain back in 2013. Obviously the situations are not identical but in Boak’s first year as captain he boosted his AFL Fantasy average by a whopping 17 points from the previous season. I’m not suggesting this is the level of growth we might see from CR but I’m backing him in to lead from the front and make a statement.

Date wise, there are a number of key components to Rozee’s profile that caught my eye and locked him in as M2 as soon as the game opened. It’s well known that your premium options need to start extremely well to maintain and grow their starting price as the rookies and boom mid pricers affect the pricing structure. I think there’s every chance Rozee is the leading point scorer after Round 4. Here are his scores last season versus his first 4 opponents for 2024. Eagles (133), Richmond (138), Melbourne (121) and Bombers (145), funnily enough his 4 highest scores for the season. The start could be absolutely enormous. If things don’t quite go his way, I’ll back him to not lose much cash, if any. He only dipped under 100 only once after Round 9, demonstrating an extremely high floor.

To be a good starting pick you probably need him to average north of 112/113. An indicator I like to look at for this capability is the average post byes of the previous season. Rozee averaged 113.4 across this period.

Statistically, I also feel like there is so many areas in which Rozee can grow and improve his fantasy numbers. Across AFL midfielders, he ranked as only average for goal accuracy and outside of the elite range for tackles and marks. I can only see upside on his 69% CBA percentage which should boost his already impressive PPM numbers. These are areas for growth in his game that can improve his score build to push him right into that Uber premium category and have him as a Top 8 midfielder in 2024. If all this narrative and data weren’t enough, Rozee and his partner are also expecting their first child just before fantasy finals, Stevie Fizz will be the first to tell you about the huge positive impact of #BabySwag.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

I actually found this section quite hard to write but I think lots of people will be naturally deterred by his lack of forward status this year. There’s definitely a case to be made that Rozee has reached his ceiling as a 105 guy but at only 24 years of age, I honestly just can’t see it.

The off season chat out of Alberton has been around Wines’ return to a full time mid role but I can’t see that affecting CR too much (I expect Drew to take a large hit). I expect JHF and Wines will share mid/fwd with Butters and Rozee both pushing their share up to the 75/80 mark. Outside of that there’s not a lot of youth pushing for more mid time and Hinkley will be looking to lean into his weapons around the football.

Rozee’s finals numbers were pretty ordinary and could scare away potential buyers however this may only fuel his hunger.

Obviously there is a certain degree of doubt over whether Rozee can improve his average enough to make him a great pick and you need him to be a Top 8 at that price point. This is where the decision must be made.

Overall, barring injury I can’t see too many reasons as to why CR isn’t a great pick for 2024 if you believe in him as much as I do.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

At only 7% owned and with the ideal bye round, I think Rozee is the best premium mid option this year. He’s got more scope to grow and improve versus the very top line guys and comes in at a cheaper price. I think 2024 is going to a massive year for the new captain of the Port Adelaide Football Club. Get on the train!

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