Luke Jackson – Deck of DT 2024

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Did you hear about the failed Gawn / Grundy ruck experiment at the Dees? It went so badly, that their 2023 averages were less than their unadjusted Covid season affected averages. As a Fantasy Pig, Grundy clearly felt this was unacceptable and left the Dees after a year. It was either that, or like Chris Judd getting fed up with Ben Cousins’ antics, Clarry snapped one too many windscreen wipers and Grundy needed out in order to maintain his Zen. Either way, it didn’t work. So, if it didn’t work with two of the all-time great fantasy ruckmen, a ruck share surely couldn’t work with lesser rucks like Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson.

Why should I pick him?

Thanks to Darcy’s recent contract extension, he and Jackson will be playing together at the Dockers for at least the rest of this decade. This is an absolute disaster for fantasy, right? Well, both actually had career years in terms of their season fantasy averages. Having said that, if we look at Jackson’s scoring with and without Darcy in the side, he’s clearly better off without Darcy in the team (i.e. about 23 points better).

Jackson with and w/o Darcy, 2023

This difference is obviously role related – solo ruck vs forward / chop out ruck. In games where he had ≥50% of the ruck contests, Jackson averaged 99.1 compared with 74.8 for <50% of the ruck contests. So, attending at least 50% of the ruck contests is the key to unlocking Jackson’s scoring, and his averages from games either side of this mark pretty much line up with when Darcy was in or out of the side. That doesn’t sound great, as it means Darcy is the R1. But, Darcy is a walking injury, so we’re sweet to get on the no Sean Darcy Action Jackson train, right? Unfortunately, it’s not that cut and dry. Since the start of the 2019 season, in which Sandilands eked out 6 games in his last year, Darcy has actually played 78% of all available home and away games. Being injured for 22% of a season is nothing to hang your hat on, but it’s not terrible given the narrative around Darcy’s injury riddled body. Assuming Darcy misses the same percentage of games in 2024, that’s 5 games where Jackson is the main man. If that’s one block of games and the Dockers have a favourable run of ruck matchups, Jackson could be an option as a unique forward play, particularly later in the season (see below on forward status).

Percentage of H&A games played by Darcy since 2019

One positive to Darcy being R1 at the Dockers is that Jackson has DPP forward status. Applying the same with or without analysis to Jackson’s scoring, below is how he ranks against his cohort based on 2023 season averages.

Jackson's Positional Rankings with & w/o Darcy

Overall, Jackson is ranked 10th amongst forwards using last year’s data. However, his scoring when Darcy was out of the side has him as the top ranked forward (eat that Macrae!!!).

Lastly, the Dockers have the round 13 bye, where only they and Port will have their feet up for the week. That makes covering the byes for other ruckmen a lot easier, particularly for draft/keepers.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Based on the above, it’s clear that you don’t go near Jackson in Classic if Darcy is in the Dockers side – even with DPP forward status. Assuming Darcy misses 5 H&A games in 2024 (i.e. 22% of the season) and Jackson plays all 23 games, Jackson would average 82 for the year based on last year’s data, which only ranks 12th in the current crop of forwards. Given what he’s priced at ($765k), there’s no value here and he’s not a forward line keeper.

In draft leagues he’s a little more palatable, but given that his scoring is linked heavily to Darcy’s availability, Jackson should only be picked as your R1 late in deep draft leagues.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

In a nutshell:

• Darcy fit = bad
• Darcy injured = good

Whilst Jackson has proven scoring power, this is as an R1, so we just can’t pick him in Classic if Darcy is fit, even as a forward. However, if Darcy goes down for an extended period, jumping on Jackson as a forward given the scarcity of top fantasy forwards in 2024 could be a winning play, especially if it’s during a favourable run of match-ups. With any luck, he’s dropped a chunk of cash by then as a result of being stuck up in the forward line.

Likewise in draft / keeper leagues, Jackson will be gold dust if Darcy is injured for a considerable time. However, as the 10th ranked forward from last year, he is draftable as an F2 with a predicted average in the low 80s. Plus, he has the bonus of being able to cover ruck injuries and byes.

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