We always expect a few misses in round 1 but not this many! Players getting knocked out, injured and just having shocking games. Well, good thing is it was only round 1 and we can fix all of this with a couple of trades as we head into Round 2 and Scramble!
Should I pull the Trigger?
The biggest question we have after the first round is, who should I pull the trigger on and boot them from our team. God knows we all had a heap of rage trades ready to go and we wanted to boot more players than we had trades for. But we only have a couple of trades in AF and at most 3 in RDT and SC so we need to prioritise.
Just a word of advice for our RDT and SC players. Don’t trade players out because you feel their price will drop. In those two forms of the game the prices change on a three week rolling average. The unique thing about this is that because we don’t get prices change until after the third game, any rubbish score in round 1 is only in their price cycle for one rotation, so after they play in round 4, that score from round 1 is no longer affecting their price. So this means that Laird’s price will only have that 50 in his price rotation for one cycle. After that (and hopefully three scores over 120) his price will bounce back again. Unless he has another shocker he won’t get super cheap which makes it harder to get him back in again.
If you have selected a premium you are generally selecting them for the season (barring major injury). We say this because trades are so valuable, (but this year we do have more trades than ever before in RDT and SC) and if you do have correction trades you need to make, weeks 1-3 are the times to make them before we start to hit upgrade season. Once you reach that point, the upgrade cadence is the most important and anything that slows that cadence will cost you in the long run.
Of course, if you have an injury to deal with and a player missing, go ahead and trade them this week. The ones that most people are looking at are Stewart, Xerri and Kelly. In these cases you can go ahead and trade. Many might say that Kelly is a hold given he is only one week. But the concern here is that his 12 days only finishes the day before the game in round 3 and there is a chance that he could miss that one too.
So you are pulling the trigger, who to?
After taking in all of the above and we decide that we are going to trade then we need to look at who we should be trading in. There are a few things we need to think about.
1. Don’t just jump on the players that had the big score last week. Look at why they had that score. The ones that I am particularly referring to are the Dockers defenders who put up some huge scores, here we need to remember that the Saints have a makeshift forward line at the moment. Also look at all of the opposition people played. So for example, the Bombers won’t play the Hawks each week, North will come up against stronger opposition than the Eagles and so on. If someone had the role we wanted and they showed the level of scoring we wanted or better against a solid opponent then they are the ones we should pick.
2. SinceIGotGawn on Twitter asked me “Should I be trading in the Underperforming Breakouts or the Missed Rookies?”. Firstly, thanks for the question and great to have you back on board this week. This is a really good question and for me the first thing that I would look at is the Missed Rookies. These are the most important players in our squads at the moment. These are the ones that will make us the cash to ultimately help us finish our team by doing our upgrades. The other side to the question is the Underperforming Breakouts. For me the answer is in the name. We have all made the assessment that this player will breakout and hence we are assuming that they have underperformed because they didn’t reach our expectations. So the answer is, Missed Rookies for me. Number 1 candidate? Harry Sheezel
3. Billy Elsum asked the question, do we go for Value players (Gulden or Green) or do we chase points (such as Cogs or Brayshaw)? Here I always go back to the GOAT of AFL Fantasy, Selby who always puts it out there that we should be looking for value. The reason for this is that we have a limited amount of funding and we need to squeeze that orange as much as we can and extract the most amount of points that we can. So what we want to do is look at spending our cash on the guys that are cheaper but are scoring well rather than spending top dollar (unless you are Calvin) on the guys that we know are at their peak price. So for me it is those guys that present value but are still scoring well. Green for me is a must have.
Where to from here?
So what do we do now? Well the first thing is that we need to have a look at the team sheets tonight and see exactly who is missing. For example, does Liam Jones get up? Once we get these teams we need to then assess who we really need to trade out. We will certainly have to do some shuffling as there is likely to be some of our rookies that will either miss or be the sub. Just check this and then make sure that you have appropriately moved players on and off your bench. Don’t worry, you will get some of these choices wrong, we all do every single year. Rookies are incredibly unpredictable so don’t panic when you get one of these decisions wrong.
Things to Remember
- It was just round 1, don’t chuck it all in just yet.
- Laird played in very hot conditions, don’t judge his season on just one game.
- Remain agile with your rookies as the weekend plays out. Be ready to switch some around on the fly.
- Don’t judge every player on what they did in round 1. If they did that in round 18 would you be just as ready to dump them?
Let’s hope we have a much better week. After listening to numerous podcasts and reading a lot of articles this week I have discovered that it wasn’t just me that made a few poor decisions and this then leads me to think that the research was there and we all read the signs the same way. Sometimes things just don’t work the way we think. So don’t beat yourself up over it get up and play on.
Good luck for round 2, most of your leagues will start this week so hopefully you can get some W’s and when we get back here next Thursday we will all have stories of celebration and we don’t look back at this week’s scoring ever again!! Now get out there, open your team and Scramble!!
- Dan on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “agreed Warnie , windhager every day over Warner” Jun 10, 01:14
- Warnie on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “Windhager is averaging 33 or so because he was sub in three of his first six games. He scored 120,…” Jun 9, 22:21
- Will on Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 13: “English was absolutely dominating Lycett all game, he wasn’t injured. They had to sub him off and double up on…” Jun 9, 19:17
- lizardofoz on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “known” Jun 9, 18:48
- lizardofoz on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “I’m happy with Warner but Windhager had to be a dodgy selection. 66 from a know tagger averaging 33 or…” Jun 9, 18:47
If Jones is named this week should we consider keeping him?
It wouldn’t be the worst thing to do if you have other issues. However, if you have no other problems to deal with I would probably look to see what other rookies around his price that you can take that had a better round 1.
As a port supporter what are your thoughts on Liam jones?
Jelly to Cogs or Setterfield?
– Have all the other midpricers & rooks.
– Cogs can eventually move to fill the FWD line & with Jelly out maybe a points boost.
– Setters gives me cash (immediate cash & cash Gen)
same problem I’m leaning to sett only because of the extra cash in the bank for next week incase we have another chaos round
Cogs is more likely to be a keeper.
Settlerfield has had only had 2 Fantasy ton’s in 58 games and one of those was on the weekend!
2017 CL Champion™®©
Good Luck in 2023™®©
Cogs. Setterfield won’t play the Hawks each week.
Cheers all. May go Cogs so I can send a keeper to the forward line after this week.
Cash for Setters looks good, most decent coaches have him, but i don’t want all my eggs in the mid priced basket.
I had Setters from early January. Setters has a break even of 42 and should be good for 80 plus for a while. Nigs has a break even of over 100 and should stay around the same price for the rest of the year.
You meant Cogs in the second sentence I hope….
Rizzard of Oz, he’s also known as Nigs!!
Only 2 trades this week a friend thought we had 3 trades until round 5 yes or no
3 trades only apply during bye rounds.
2017 CL Champion™®©
Good Luck in 2023™®©
This is the correct answer.
Josh Kelly & Fergus Green –> James Worpel and Jack Ziebell (benching Phillipou)
Thoughts on these moves? Wouldnt be doing it if Jelly was healthy obviously but chasing value and the 2 low BEs. Reckon Ziebell can average 85-90ish
I like it. But I have also been told this week I suck at Fantasy and should just quit after posting my abysmal score. Might not want to take my advice
I don’t mind it. Greene isn’t going to get huge cash gen I don’t think and Ziebell could get Def status too so not a bad move at all.
How consistent will Chandlers scoring be once Melbourne players come back. Probably the only rookie i missed this year so far but just unsure if i should trade him in this week
He’s going to sky rocket in price even if he only averages 60 from now on
This is the concern. What will his role be then (if at all)
Doesn’t matter. His price will go up too much to miss out on, regardless of what he scores. Will go up 100-150k in the next two weeks alone. If his role sucks, or he is dropped, then cash him in.
But will he even play?
seeing Hewett out for Carlton now, is it worth holding Cerra for another week or 2??
currently have him out for Bowes, but with no Walsh or Hewett, he could easily got 110+..
alternative is to reduce the $$ losses from Dunkley for a coupe weeks and bring in Daicos..
essentially comes down to 1 or 2..
1 – Cerra (no Hewett & Walsh) + Daicos (with Dunkley making way)..
2 – Dunkley (still gonna lose $$) + Bowes (with Cerra making way)..
We have only played 1 Round of footy. My team is doing ok. But this week I’ll be Trading out Jelly and J Hunt. I have 125K in bank.
1. Bring in Ziebell and C Daniel
2. E Gulden and E Yeo
3. Ziebell and H Young
or should I be looking at bringing in Callaghan. The problem I have with Callaghan is that this is his second year. I think, so will he keep his spot and be a chance to be a top Mid at years end.
Callaghan played well in Rd1. He’s a top 3 pick so GWS will look to develop him by getting games into him. He won’t likely be a top mid come season’s end but should be good for cash generation until the byes when you can upgrade him.
I’m just a bit worried Tom as I was hoping J Kelly would be a top mid. I agree %100 about the money grab. Just thinking while I’m texting “It is a good idea lol thanks.
Only question for me is, do I trade Cowan or Bytel for Chandler. Cowan not going to make me much money, but Bytel not going to make any this week. Might only be 10-20k, but that’s still 10-20k. Problem is, if I move out Cowan, there’s not enough kitty left to bring in Pedlar/Davey/some other rookie next week unless moving out Bytel then, who is a good chance of returning, and has a low BE. Only alternative is trading Bytel this week, who might be straight back in next week anyway, so I’m almost treading water instead of bringing in the cows I’ve missed.
Also going up to Goldy from Xerri. Talk about doubling down. May the lord have mercy on my DT.
Plus is it safe to bring Yeo into my side
If he’s named it’s probably a decent play. He comes with a lot of (injury) risk though.
Is Setters the real deal?
Field Philipou (Dogs), Hollands (Cats) or Chandler (Lions)?
Greene and Jelly to Chandler and LDU a tick? Leaves 116k in the bank. Will wait tonight to see if Hollands goes 75+ and in that case will probably try hold Jelly.
Thought i’d create a league to take on other DT talk peeps – feel free to join 6XEHHUN5
Thanks Dunny, great stuff as always.
Have a league starting this round if anyone is interested in joining. JHZM2TH7
Thoughts on Lachlan jones??
Defensive forward, won’t average more than 50-55.
Tom De Koning?
Thought on this trade Fantasy.
Is Nank worth bringing in?
1. Xerri to English and Laird to Greene
2.Xerri to Nank and Chesser to Greene
Hardback said he wants to play Nank 80% in ruck game time
Last shout out for RDT leagues 296089 or 955586. Need a couple more teams to fill them, good luck everyone.
Really at a loss with Xerri.
I could move Uwland to the back line and then go McGrath > English. But then playing 3 rooks + Constable down back. Too risky?
Jelly -> Green
Stewart -> ???
Tossing up between Naicos and Young, wondering if Port will tag, wondering if Young will touch it if they thrash North. Suggestions? Can get anyone from Witherden down
Trade Marshall to English or Bont to Andy Brayshaw???
Why trade Bont?
Why trade Marshall?
Jelly to LDU or Setterfield? Or anyone else in that 850k below range
Cunnington + Jones -> Daicos + Pedlar
Cunnington + Jones -> Day + Chandler
(Why the Fark did I go with Cunnington)
bugger.. held Cerra with Hewett out, was feeling good at HT with him on 65, but a 25 second half was a poor result..
bringing in Goldy fro Cameron this week as standalone ruck, saving some $$
trying to plan for a few weeks when Laird bottoms out, so building the warnechest..