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Finals time, the best runs home, Greene the FWD machine – Ep. 297

PODCAST: Roy is in the finals, Warnie and Calvin are not. They offer their advice for round 20.

The finals start this week for leagues running with the final 8 structure. Roy is flying high in the Bacon Cup top 4 while Warnie and Calvin will be in the consolation finals.

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1:20 – The Traders’ scores including Roy’s big call that fell flat.

5:45 – The Ruck Pig’s captaincy fail with Dunkley not any better.

7:45 – The Kayo Key Moments for round 19.

11:30 – Round 19 takeaways.

15:45 – Breaking news.

22:30 – Cal’s Scale of Hardness looking at the players with the best runs home.

27:35 – Roy’s Rolling 22.

32:00 – Calvin is relevant again as a captain picker.

37:20 – Questions from social media – follow @AFLFantasy on Twitter and like the Official AFL Fantasy facebook page.

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12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Avatar

    beanford

    July 29, 2019 at 8:38 pm

    Agree with Warnie, should totally be Points For. Percentage is meaningless in Fantasy.

  2. Avatar

    Bigfoot

    July 29, 2019 at 9:34 pm

    +1 Fantasy is all about chasing points. So why not a points for system.

  3. Avatar

    Squid

    July 30, 2019 at 9:00 am

    It’s just how it works, I’m 10th in a league with second highest score overall, first is a top 10-20 team overall. I don’t get finals in that league even though I have objectively the second best team but too bad for me.

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      July 30, 2019 at 9:48 am

      That’s what it is at the moment. But what if the option was there to have either percentage or points for? Obviously decided by league/commissioner at the start of the year.

      There is already plenty of luck with who you play (and more importantly, when) in your leagues. This is definitely a fairer system… basically because we have no say in what a team scores against us. Fair enough you lose – and I’m not suggesting to take that away, but to get shafted on % with something out of your control when your challengers on the same points may have played a ghost ship later in the season when you had a ‘closer’ game early in the year is hardly fair.

      I know which one I would choose.

      • Avatar

        dulcify56

        July 30, 2019 at 3:12 pm

        Why bring this matter up after you can’t make the finals? Suck it up Princess.

        • Warnie

          Warnie

          July 30, 2019 at 3:47 pm

          FYI – I’ve said it for years. All of my Ultimate Footy draft leagues use this as the deciding factor. Why bring it up now? Apart from being topical, as you know, we do a podcast about Fantasy footy… it’s because I haven’t had to worry about it before. I’m normally that much better than all of the other muppets in my league.

          • Avatar

            Plugger

            August 5, 2019 at 12:07 pm

            Warnie has thought this issue through far more thoroughly and with a feel for the justice (as well as the luck) of the game than Calvin and Roy. Even looking to make the percentage/total points an option provides some justice to those for whom the habit of using the percentage approach has come to have some analogous meaning for them due to its familiarity with arrangements in the ‘real’ game. The thing is, that attraction to giving ladder position significance to percentage in fantasy, is based on familiarity, not on similarity. The percentage arrangements, as Warnie has argued, is not connected to the effort of one’s team throughout the season.

            I have encountered teams early in the season whose coaches have been highly focused, only to find that the same team has had an AWOL coach providing, as Warnie points out, a ghost team to play my immediate competitor for ladder position later in the season with the result of a huge unearned percentage boost to my immediate ladder position competitor. Even this season, in my league, I have the largest total points scored by close to 500 points, but have lower ladder position than those on equal points. The luck of the draw has me comfortably accepting the fact that my draw was ‘harder’ as I ended up in 4th position despite a clear break on total points. We are all familiar with the luck of the draw from the real game, and the fantasy draw provides a similar spread of luck. But the reliance on percentage in fantasy for fine tuning ladder positions is not similar to the way in which percentage in the real game is effected by a teams own efforts – in fantasy that percentage is not formed on the basis of a teams own efforts alone: in the real game the percentage is a ratio of the effort a team has put in to maximise the scoring of points, on the one hand, and in minimising the points scored against one’s own team. In fantasy we have no control over minimising the points scored against our team.

            Warnie’s argument is clear, fair and recognising of the unique character and structural differences of the fantasy game, and when the total points ‘option’ is implemented it will lead to the removal of at least one unnecessary sounding of the expletive “the game shits me!”, when a team has a greater points total but a worse ratio of points scored and points against, simply due to the inevitable bias in the fantasy draw matching teams, at different stages of the draw. Also, in the worst case of the effect due to the inevitable (but generally acceptable) draw bias, that is, where one encounters (or presents) a ghost team, keep in mind, that is a tanking team. If in the real game a team fielded only 12 players because a coach had gone awol, those who regulate the game would not accept the fairness of an outcome based on accepting that arrangement. It would change the arrangements. All power to the reasoning Warnie has articulated, and, if you look at the twitter poll, it is a reasoning that is overwhelming supported by the Fantasy community of coaches. Bring on the option to select Total points for fine tuning ladder positions! When it gets up, and it will, call it Warnie’s enlightened ammendment.

  4. Avatar

    Sam

    July 30, 2019 at 11:41 am

    Its still a game of strategy. Missing the 8 on percentage is your own fault because you should have won more games. The only way you can say its unfair is if the people who beat you on percentage had the exact same team as you the whole year.

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      July 30, 2019 at 12:58 pm

      πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ

      • Avatar

        Squid

        July 30, 2019 at 6:26 pm

        I do hear you Warnie and the whole who you play and when theory is spot on but to me this is just a quirk fantasy footy. Whilst I’m dirty that my clearly superior team wont play finals in a league, I like that the underdog has a chance to get up, one day that might be me, let skill and tactics (and luck….) determine overall rankings and leave the chaos in leagues I say!

  5. Avatar

    TK For Free

    July 31, 2019 at 3:56 pm

    I wish that we talked about Simpson a bit more not sure if i should go him or Clark

  6. Avatar

    Vincent

    July 31, 2019 at 4:12 pm

    Duncan or Zorko?

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