The Friday Scramble: Round 8
Don’t look too soon, we could have another low scoring round on our hands with some guns missing this week!
Bit of a horror week in round 7 for coaches but if you managed to dodge a few of the bullets then you could have rocketed up the rankings! If you had a poor week don’t stress as everyone has a down week sometimes. All we can do is look forward and tackle this week as it comes (and looking at selections it hasn’t gotten any easier). We have a few issues to deal with but it wouldn’t be Fantasy Footy if this game was easy… so Let’s Scramble!!
When do we cash in a Cow?
We have reached that part of the season where we need to start cashing in our Rookies and the never ending question is when do I cash them in. This is generally a fairly easy answer. You cash in the guys that have a Break Even that is equal to or higher than their average. Sometimes you can’t do this as you have other issues to deal with. When that happens I will look at who will do the least damage to their value if I keep them. There is never a perfect time to cash in one of your cows, but you just have to look at what is the best move for you. Sometimes the guy you trade out will have a blinder next week and burn you but sometimes you get it just right. So if you can win more than 50% of those situations it is a good thing.
We have a very interesting case study this week. If you are still holding Zak Butters, which many RDT and SC players would be, most people were planning to trade him out this week. However, with him being omitted this week you may not need to trade him just yet. The key is that he will not change in price since he won’t play. So if you have other bigger issues to deal with or if you don’t have an obvious trade in for him, then you could leave him to sit on your bench for another week whilst you deal with other problems.
Then we have another interesting one and that is Sam Walsh in AF he has a BE of 85 and an average of 95, in RDT he has a BE of 103 and an average of 95 and lastly in SC his BE is 97 and an average of 95. There has been a lot of talk this week about trading him out because he has maxed out in price. But, a consideration that I have here is that he is scoring really well and whilst he may drop a few dollars he is providing points. If you are downgrading him and have to play someone like Gibbons or Setterfield on field instead then you could be sacrificing too many points. With a guy like him, I will leave him to be my last upgrade or even keep him on my bench as cover. He is going to play the vast majority of the season. At the very least I intend keeping him until the Carlton bye round.
So a lot of the questions that people asked me this week became redundant after teams came out with Hately beingng dropped. Anyway, here are a couple of them…
Who to get in this week (will probably get the other next week) Boak or Treloar
Also if Danger is out would it be worth trading him to someone like Boak or Daniel
— Jack Flett (@JackFlett23) May 8, 2019
Love a two parter! When looking at the first part of your question there you need to look at a couple of things. The BE and also the matchup. Their BE’s are pretty much the same in AF so next we look at their matchups. Treloar has Carlton and Boak has the Crows. So based on that Treloar should have a field day. Grab Boak next week.
This is The Question this week. Now at this point we know that Danger is named and Chris Scott will give him right up until the last minute and let’s be honest, they LOVE a late out! So I fully expect him to be not playing. Up front, in RDT and SC we hold, no questions asked. In AF however, you do have a choice to make. If you are thinking he will miss then you could trade him out. We have talked about this strategy a number of times and it can be a very risky one or a very fruitful one. However, in this case Danger has made this a little easier for us. His poor score last week has boosted his BE so trading him out his week is not as big an issue as it could otherwise be. If he plays he probably still drops in value and you can get him back again at a cheaper price. Whether he plays or not you could probably make some cash. But, just be aware that we know sometimes we have other issues to deal with and it can make getting him back in a bit harder than we think.
The upshot? Well it is personal choice but given the BE this isn’t one of those times we hold in AF without question.
Do I bring in Tim Kelly, or is he likely to get a Ziebell tag.
— Anthony Norton (@Anthony15163898) May 8, 2019
I say go get him. His BE is sitting at 86 so not a big target for him and against North he should have a big game. I don’t think the Roos will tag him but I wouldn’t be making my trade in decision based on a tag from North. Hutchings maybe but not Ziebell. North need him to go get the footy.
Hey mate, should I be trading Ebert (to Boak or Daniel) if danger is out? (Only one playing on bench) or hold and bring in a forward rookie?
— Lachie Gordon (@lachiegordonn) May 8, 2019
If you have both Ebert and Danger in your forward line I am going to guess that your bench isn’t going to cut it. So in that case I would say you probably could trade one of them out this week. Both have pretty high BE’s. In this case I think I trade Danger, only because we know that Ebert is a concussion and he should be back into things next week but with an MCL Danger could take a bit longer to get back to his best.
Massive night at the selection table this week and it has huge implications for Draft teams particularly with a lot of players that aren’t necessarily on Classic teams but very draft relevant being dropped either through injury or omission. Here are my thoughts on some of the key ins and outs.
Jordan Ridley – He has been omitted and as a result of that and his BE being fairly high then he could be traded out.
Brayden Ham – comes back in for his second game. Could be a downgrade for RDT and SC players next week if he goes well.
Lachlan Young – Retained his spot with Suckling coming back into the side as Dickson was omitted. This is a big win for us.
Noah Answerth – Also retained his spot with Bailey coming back into the side. This is another win for us.
Will Setterfield – Returns this week after a good week in the VFL. He has some cash to make so keep him for now.
Dayne Beams and Taylor Adams – Both missing for the Pies so this should really benefit Treloar, Sidebottom and Pendles.
Brayden Fiorini – out Injured! He has been putting together his best and most consistent season. Not in a lot of classic teams but highly selected player in draft.
Zak Butters – Out omitted as I mentioned above. We all suspected this but you can hold him if you want to as his price won’t drop this week.
Ebert and Wines – Both out as we already knew. Hold Ebert as it is just one week but Wines out for 4-6 says must trade.
Constable – is named on the end of the extended bench and given Chris Scott’s comments during the week I don’t expect to see him play.
Brett Bewley– is named first in the extended bench! Could we actually see him play? Will come into my AF side if he does.
Scrimshaw – is back after a week off. Don’t expect too much though.
Jackson Hately – DROPPED AGAIN! Seriously Leon what are you doing? This kid can play! Yes you have a team of guns but five him a chance!
Shane Mumford – Injured. Or is he? Doesn’t appear on the official injury list on the AFL site (but not that that thing is updated often enough). Could it just be that the 9 free kicks against caught up to him?
Lachie Whitfield – misses another week! I am still holding him.
Things To Remember
- Have some Bench Cover! Late outs are likely this week up forward if you have Danger! We know they love doing it so be prepared for it.
- If you do end up trading Danger out be ready for the fact you may have bigger issues later on and it may take a week or two to get him back.
- Not all rookies have to get traded out because their BE is close to their score. Look at what your other players will score for you first.
Bit of an odd week this week, we were all prepared with our trades then we have a huge night at selection! We had some ordinary scoring last week and I am predicting early that we will see more of the same this week! Just be ready for it. Hope you all have a good weekend and see you all again next Friday!