Fast Starting Premiums

Hey again DT world, The Wiz is back again for the 2018 #AFLFantasy season.

It’s usually around this point in the year where my love for DT takes over, and all my time is taken up by research, study and endless cups of coffee. My biggest task this year personally is to back myself in more, and try and take my own advice. I nailed a few calls last year about breakout players such as; Lloyd, Kelly, Billings, Blakely, Heeney and Oliver, yet I still end up looking like a mug not breaking the top 5000. I guess what I am trying to say is that my advice is usually solid, yet my actions are sometimes flakey and impulsive, which needs to change this year.

The purpose for this article you’re (hopefully) about to read is to show that past stats can be relevant for future prediction, and I guess stats are all we have to make such hypothesis.

When choosing your Fantasy team, you need a core group of players that we call “premo’s“ known as superior players that are the building blocks for your team. Whilst selecting these players you need to take many things into account, and a big factor when picking a premo is their price and how you can afford to fit them into your team. These tables and stats you will read, provide you with relevant and recent data that will assist you in making an educated decision, and could provide you with evidence to select a cheaper player over the more expensive one. However, the wonderful world of DT means that all these stats will probably mean nothing when the player you choose is a late withdrawal and you cop a doughnut RD 1. So take these stats with a grain of salt!

If anyone takes anything useful out of this article then my job is done! I wish everyone to have a fantastic #AFLFantasy year and if you have any questions or queries about anything – follow me on twitter: @TheWizDT.

Best of luck guys!

TheWiz

How To Read The Tables

The tables and statistics can seem a little full on when having a quick glance at each of the teams. I want to make it become a little clearer before you read them!

The rows run left to right, and correlate with a players previous 3 scores verse that opponent (seen as an average) / what they have averaged at that ground they’re playing (in the last 2 years).

EXAMPLE: In the Adelaide Crows table, you see that their first game is against Essendon @ Etihad. If you look at Sloane’s Row – his numbers show 123 / 85, meaning that he averages 123 points in his last 3 games against Essendon but only averages 85 when he plays at Etihad. If you now look along the row Sloane’s next fixture is seen as RD 2: RICH @ AO. You can see Sloane averages 113 in his last 3 games verse Richmond and averages 116 at Adelaide Oval.

Obviously, you want to see two scores above or around 100, as these are the players who love to play against that team, and love playing at that particular ground. EXAMPLE: In all BUT one row/column: Coniglio shows triple figures. His price of 663K means that potentially he could come out of the blocks and prove his priced average of 95 is well under to start the year, and this is where these tables become relevant.

Lastly: the end column shows the average of each players first 5 games of the season, based over the last two years, to keep it relevant. This shows which premium options have been fast starters and which premiums take a little while to get going. JPK is a classic example. In the last two years, he averages just 94 to start the year, yet his average (usually) is above or around 105.

** QUICK NOTE **

You will notice that not all highest priced “premium “options/players stats are available. An example of this is the non-inclusion of Billings, Heeney, Blakely etc… as they haven’t got enough previous stats or data to be worth including. That’s not to say they aren’t good picks though.

Best viewed on desktop.

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	ESS @ ES	RICH @ AO	ST KILDA @ ES	COLL @ AO	SYD @ SCG	(Last 2 Years)
Sloane ($754K)	123 / 85	113 / 116	111 / 85	90 / 116	125 / 62	108
Gibbs ($790K)	119 / 102	112 / 107	92 / 102	112 / 107	109 / 113	102
M. Crouch ($752K)	98 / 86	112 / 103	97 / 86	106 / 103	99 / -	92
B.Crouch ($726K)	79 / 72	95 / 94	80 / 72	105 / 94	80 / -	88
Laird ($707K)	105 / 88	94 / 102	103 / 88	85 / 102	99 / -	102
Jacobs ($700K)	99 / 74	111 / 94	121 / 74	109 / 94	90 / 57	79

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	STK @ ES	MELB @ G	PORT @ AO	RICH @ MCG	GC @ G	(Last 2 Years)
Beams ($736K)	134 / 96	97 / 108	78/ 83	105 / 110	122 / 108	112
Stef Martin ($703K)	113 / 101	77 / 109	95/ 95	99 / 109	104 / 95	105
Zorko ($805K)	103/ 107	113 / 112	106 / 116	98/ 113	96/ 112	120
Hodge ($612K)	100 / 87	92 / -	92 / 89	90 / 88	107 / -	90

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	RICH @ MCG	GC @ ES	COLL @ MCG	NM @ BA	WCE @ MCG	(Last 2 Years)
Cripps ($692K)	96 / 103	98/ 97	102 / 103	100 / 98	109 / 103	94
Murphy ($782K)	121 / 108	96 / 103	107 / 108	97 / -	117 / 108	111
Simpson $(688K)	103 / 101	101 / 99	102 / 101	96 / 67	93 / 101	94
Kreuzer ($740K)	94 / 91	93 / 98	80 / 91	101 / 90	81 / 91	88

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	HAW @ MCG	GWS @ MCG	CARL @ MCG	ADEL @ AO	ESS @ MCG	(Last 2 yrs)
Treloar ($761K)	116 / 108	96 /108	84 / 108	111 / 114	110 / 108	117
Pendlebury ($767K)	114 / 112	93 / 112	117 / 112	99 / 107	96 / 112	103
Grundy ($748K)	107 / 100	115 / 100	80 / 100	117 / 108	83 / 100	110
Sidebottom ($745K)	109 / 105	103 / 105	79 / 105	116 / 112	114 / 105	108
Adams ($808K)	102 /108	109 / 108	96 / 108	121 / 125	94 / 108	109

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	ADEL @ ES	FREM @ OS	WB @ ES	PORT @ ES	COLL @ MCG	(Last 2 yrs)
Heppell ($707K)	99 / 102	98 / -	105 / 102	100 / 102	93 / 107	109
Goddard ($716K)	106 / 106	108 / -	81 / 106	100 / 106	98 / 101	104
Merrett ($825K)	117 / 118	130/ -	112 / 118	133 / 118	102 / 114	121

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	PORT @ AO	ESS @ OS	GC @ OS	GWS @ UNSW	DOGS @ OS	( Last 2 Yrs)
Fyfe ($686K)	112 / 98	92 / -	126 / -	108 / 120	101 / -	112
Neale ($706K)	98 / 91	117/ -	125 / -	125 / 106	101 / -	101

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	MELB @ MCG	HAW @ MCG	WCE @ OS	STK @ GS	PORT @ AO	( Last 2 yrs)
Dangerfield ($849K)	99 / 105	116 / 105	108 / -	112 / 125	110 / 119	110
J.Selwood ($670K)	113 / 70	101 / 70	71 / -	125 / 107	107 / 110	103
Duncan ($793K)	81/ 102	91 / 102	103 / -	122 / 103	103 / 93	111
Ablett ($837K)	87 / 141	140 / 141	119 / -	88 / 121	103 / 98	107

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	NM @ CS	CARL @ ES	FREM @ OS	WCE @ OS	BL @ G	(Last 2 Yrs)
Hall ($690K)	80 / 96	108 / 90	85 / -	107 / -	105 / 105	112
Barlow ($667K)	88 / 93	100 / 82	N/A	104 / -	92 / 90	91

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	DOGS @ UNSW	COLL @ MCG	SYD @ SCG	FREM @ UNSW	STK @ ES	(Last 2 Yrs)
Kelly ($795K)	92 / 106	125 / 86	89 / 80	83 / 106	103 / 109	98
Coniglio ($663K)	112 / 104	90 / 81	101 / 102	103/ 104	123 / 104	100
Shiel ($666K)	106 / 98	92 / 76	95 / 86	90 / 98	74/ 107	99
Shaw ($565K)	116 / 94	91 / 85	82/ 96	99 / 94	109 / 104	95

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	COLL @ MCG	GEEL @ MCG	RICH @ MCG	MELB @ MCG	NM @ ES	(Last 2 Yrs)
Mitchell ($896K)	148 / 110	122 / 110	99 / 110	117 / 110	126 / 124	115
McEvoy ($644K)	96 / 89	101 / 89	83 / 89	86 / 89	90 / 92	87
Smith ($651K)	86 / 94	100 / 94	91 / 94	103 / 94	110 / 92	94
Gunston ($598K)	79 / 93	91 / 93	97 / 93	84 / 93	72 / 89	88

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	GEEL @ MCG	BRIS @ G	NM @ MCG	HAW @ MCG	RICH @ MCG	(Last 2 yrs)
Jones ($734K)	106 / 101	88 / 86	82 / 101	119 / 101	75 / 101	97
Gawn ($605K)	110/ 97	67/ 95	107 / 97	110/ 97	105 / 97	102
Oliver ($715K)	111 / 108	93/ 93	109/ 108	86/ 108	95/ 108	101
Viney ($638K)	87/ 99	83 / -	85/ 99	139 / 99	102/ 99	95

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	GC @ CS	STK @ ES	MELB @ MCG	CARL @ BA	HAW @ ES	(Last 2 Yrs)
Ziebell ($662K)	92 / 98	98 / 97	79 / 100	112 / 104	86 / 97	96
Goldstein ($610K)	98 / 102	93 / 103	151 / 97	102 / 108	83 / 103	96
Cunnington ($620K)	87 / 93	92 / 96	95 / 92	102 / 99	89 / 96	79
Higgins ($665K)	96 / -	81 / 90	81 / 100	93 / 90	73 / 90	87

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	FREM @ AO	SYD @ SCG	BRIS @ AO	ESS @ ES	GEEL @ AO	(Last 2 Yrs)
Gray ($572K)	102 / 95	61 / 30	97 / 95	79 / 100	72 / 95	92
Wines ($703K)	108 / 103	102 / 111	103 / 103	98 / 101	104 / 103	104
Ebert ($724K)	109 / 99	83 / 87	100   /99	100 / 97	91 / 99	99
Rockliff ($725K)	130 / 114	142 / 127	N.A / 114	131 / 121	113 / 114	129
Wingard ($649K)	69 / 90	90 / 81	88 / 90	90 / 80	105 / 90	89

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	CARL @ MCG	ADEL @ AO	HAW @ MCG	BL @ MCG	MEL @ MCG	(Last 2 Yrs)
Martin ($800K)	103 / 114	99 / 113	106 / 114	107 / 114	97 / 114	101
Prestia ($577K)	78 / 78	82 / 71	90 / 78	95 / 78	78 / 78	82
Cotchin ($673K)	81 / 96	102 / 93	89 / 96	92 / 96	95 / 96	100
Ellis ($596K)	70 / 85	88 / 97	70 / 85	90 / 85	76 / 85	80
Houli ($637K)	79 / 93	110 / 79	72 / 93	80 / 93	71 / 93	84

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	BL @ ES	NM @ ES	ADEL @ ES	GEEL @ GS	GWS @ ES	(Last 2 Yrs)
Steven ($661K)	103 / 105	85 / 105	101 / 105	94 / -	116 / 105	107
Ross ($718K)	81 / 99	108 / 99	78 / 99	105 / 97	107 / 99	99

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	WCE @ OS	PORT @ SCG	GWS @ SCG	WB @ ES	ADEL @ SCG	(Last 2 Yrs)
JPK ($690K)	100 / -	125 / 103	80 / 103	112 / 107	118 / 103	94
Parker ($693K)	96 / -	113 / 106	87 / 106	96 / 109	97 / 106	102
Hannebery ($665K)	89 / -	108 / 99	102 / 99	87 / 116	115 / 99	105
Franklin ($677K)	84 / -	99 / 105	91 / 105	110 / 108	85 / 105	96
Lloyd ($649K)	92 / -	101 / 92	87 / 92	103 / 106	81 / 92	92

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	SYD @ OS	WB @ ES	GEEL @ OS	GC @ OS	CARL @ MCG	(Last 2 Yrs)
Gaff ($709K)	100 / -	125 / 99	108 / -	91 / -	98 / 105	107
Shuey ($696K)	105 / -	97 / 89	95 / -	106 / -	97 / 104	110
Yeo ($692K)	101 / -	88 / 89	65 / -	108 / -	63 / 69	96

	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3	RD 4	RD 5	FIRST 5 AVG
	GWS @ UNSW	WCE @ ES	ESS @ ES	SYD @ ES	FREM @ OS	(Last 2 Yrs)
Bontempelli ($706K)	98 / 106	101 / 96	98 / 96	107 / 96	92 / -	87
Hunter ($634K)	94 / 92	97 / 98	114 / 98	75 / 98	97 / -	98
Daulhaus ($624K)	83 / 96	94 / 90	92 / 90	94 / 90	91 / -	99
Macrae ($732K)	88 / 91	93 / 100	110 / 100	101 / 100	107 / -	98

 

STATISTICS

Comparing Premiums

TOP 5 Fastest Starters in the last 2 years based off their first 5 games average.

1. Rockliff – 129
2. Merrett – 121
3. Zorko – 120
4. Treloar – 117
5. T. Mitchell – 115

Players & Teams To Watch

Collingwood play 4 out of their first 5 games at the MCG. This is a place where Pendles, Treloar and Adams all have averaged 108 or more in the last two seasons. The pies are the best team in the competition (from an AFL Fantasy perspective), so get your pies whilst they’re hot!

Essendon leave Melbourne only once in the first 5 games. Merrett is the standout pick here as he has raised the bat (100+) 22 times out of a possible 32 games in Melbourne within the past 2 years. This includes 18 times he has gone 115+ and overall Zerrett averages a whopping 113 in the sporting capital of Australia. The Dons only trip is in RD 2, where they travel West to face Fremantle. The last 3 times Merrett has come up against the men in purple he has had the ball on a string. His scores are as follows: 144, 124, 121. Lock.

Hawthorn don’t leave Melbourne AT ALL in the first 5 games, the first 4 will be played at the MCG and RD 5 will be played at ES. Is Tom Mitchell expensive? Yup. Is he worth every dollar? YUP! In Titch’s first season wearing the brown and gold he averaged 130 at the MCG and 132 at ES in 2017. Hawthorn’s first game is against the Pies – In Mitchell’s last 4 games against Collingwood he has recorded scores of 138, 132, 177 and 135. If you don’t start with him – you WILL be left behind.

Melbourne also play 4 out of their first 5 games at the MCG. Max Gawn is the pick here based on price (605K) and with the opening fixtures the Dees have, big MAX averages at least 105 when versing 4/5 of those starting teams.

Tom Rockliff: Don’t think about it, JUST PICK HIM. When he isn’t injured, Rocky is a no brainer. Currently priced at an average of 103, he is potentially 30 under what he can produce. Obviously, I’m not going to be naïve and say that there aren’t doubts over the Pig, with a new team there comes uncertainties about role and team cohesion, as well as the never ending questions about Rocky’s body – but his first 2 games come up against teams that he loves to play. Rd 1: His last 4 scores against FREM (95, 142, 154, 172) & RD 2: His last 4 scores against SYD (167, 132, 128, 141). Hop on and enjoy the ride.

St Kilda play 13 games at ES this year, 4 of them coming in the first 5 rounds. We all know that Jack Steven can put up some serious DT numbers. He has averaged 105 under the roof in the past 2 years, as well as averaging a 107 in his first 5 games of the season in the past 2 years as well. If Jacky bah can get off to a flyer – his price of 661K could rise rapidly and significantly.

Sydney’s opening fixtures aren’t the most enticing, but the trio of JPK, Parker & Hannebery’s price is. They are all priced under 98, and they ALL have averaged 108 or more in the past, meaning they are theoretically 10 points under-priced. Surely the swans can’t start as bad this year?

Finally: from my perspective, the 650-700K MIDFIELDER price bracket is the one that is most exciting and tempting. All of Cripps, Fyfe, J. Selwood, Hall, Coniglio, Steven and the SYD TRIO have the ability to average close to or above the magical 110 If you can successfully pick 1 or 2 from this group it could enable you to upgrade in other areas.