Pearcey’s B-E.S.T. – Round 2

 

Round 2 is done and dusted, and what a shocking week for most coaches! Our premiums didn’t fire, our rookies didn’t fire, and after celebrating our great picks after Round 1 a lot of us came crashing back to earth after Round 2. But this week is a new week so we can all stop drowning our sorrows and look forward to Round 3.

 

Total confusion?

As mentioned last week, the change in providers for AFL Fantasy from Virtual Sports to FanHub also brings a change in the way the player prices will change from week-to week. In the past (and still with Real Dream Team) we have had a system where a player’s price changes on a 3-week rolling basis, with the first price change not being applied until a player had completed their 3^rd game for the season. Now, with the change in providers we are faced with a new challenge of how the price rise/fall system works, with every player that played a game in round 2 having a change in their price, and a price change after every game a player plays!

 

After briefly looking at the price changes and crunching a few numbers I still have no idea what formula the powers-that-be have used! Here is an example of two players with fairly similar scores that had different price changes:

 

Matthew Boyd:

Original price – $563,300 (priced at an average of 103.9)
Scores of 118 & 87 (total – 205)
New price – $556,657 – Reduction of $6,643 (1.18% drop)

Brent Stanton:

Original price – $560,300 (priced at an average of 103.4)
Scores of 87 & 121 (total – 208)
New price – $546,797 – Reduction of $13,503 (2.41% drop)

 

So we have two players that started at practically the same price, have scored practically the same amount of points so far, yet one players price change is double that of the other! Even if you only base it on Round 2 you would expect Boyd’s drop to be significant more than Stanton’s.

If anyone works out the formula please be sure to comment below and share it with the DT Talk community!

 

Value, Value, Value!

Value is a great indicator of the likelihood of a player rising or falling in price from week to week. Below are a number of players from each position that represented the best ‘value’ in round 2:

(Note: Value (Dollars per point) = Price/Points scored)

 

DEFENDERS:

AFL FANTASY:

Alexis Georgiou (MEL):           Value – $1,496 per point scored

Ben Griffiths (RIC):                  Value – $1,908 per point scored

Tom Langdon (COL):               Value – $2,053 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Alexis Georgiou (MEL):           Value – $1,279 per point scored

Tom Langdon (COL):               Value – $1,709 per point scored

Ben Griffiths (RIC):                  Value – $2,215 per point scored

 

MIDFIELDERS:

AFL FANTASY:

Xavier Ellis (WCE):                  Value – $1,505 per point scored

Martin Gleeson (ESS):             Value – $1,578 per point scored

Eli Templeton (STK):               Value – $1,694 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Dylan Buckley (CAR):              Value – $1,581 per point scored

Martin Gleeson (ESS):             Value – $1,632 per point scored

Harry Cunningham (SYD):       Value – $1,752 per point scored

 

RUCKS:

AFL FANTASY:

Aaron Sandilands (FRE):          Value – $2,350 per point scored

Daniel Currie (NM):                Value – $2,351 per point scored

Tom Hickey (STK):                   Value – $2,771 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Tom Hickey (STK):                   Value – $2,394 per point scored

Daniel Currie (NM):                Value – $2,432 per point scored

Tom Derickx (SYD):                 Value – $2,536 per point scored

 

FORWARDS:

AFL FANTASY:

Patrick Ambrose (ESS):           Value – $1,496 per point scored

Gary Rohan (SYD):                  Value – $2,661 per point scored

Lewis Taylor (BRI):                  Value – $2,831 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Patrick Ambrose (ESS):           Value – $1,279 per point scored

Lewis Taylor (BRI):                  Value – $1,683 per point scored

Jarman Impey (POR):              Value – $2,563 per point scored

 

I wont comment too much about the players listed above as the majority of them will be covered in a lot more detail in the outstanding article that is “Jeppa’s Juniors’ but I will say that if you are playing both forms of the game (AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team) make sure that you study both sets of prices as even though both competitions use the same scoring system that is pretty much the only element that is the same, all player prices, break-evens, price changes etc are all very different. If you want to be successful at each make sure you treat them as two very different competitions.

 

Fallen premiums…

There were a number of players that had a round to forget in round 2. A few of our so-called ‘premiums’ were being outshone by players that cost a lot less, but this is not all bad, it can actually be a benefit in a few rounds time. Players to keep an eye on that should represent good value over the next 3-5 rounds:

 

Ryan Griffin (WB) – Round Score: 45

In Griffin’s first game for 2014 he scored a well below-par 45, causing him to drop in price in AFL Fantasy from $571,800 to $535,444, and a possible further drop in Round 3. Griffin’s price in Real Dream Team (currently $576,300) could also be affected after his 3^rd game depending on his scores in the next 2 rounds. Griffin is an absolute gun and is destined to average over 100 for the season so if his price continues to drop he is certainly one to keep an eye on.

 

Scott Selwood (WCE) – Round Score: 48

After blasting out of the blocks with 113 in Round 1, a number of coaches (including DT Talk’s own Roy) locked in Selwood as their captain against the Demons. When looking at his score after the game and seeing 96 next to his name I am sure the coaches were disappointed, expecting a score over 100. But the disappointment would have turned to utter disgust when they realised that his score was ALREADY DOUBLED after a disgusting performance of only 48 points! This caused a drop in Selwood’s AFL Fantasy price from $587,500 to $554,259 with a further drop likely after round 3. His break-even in Real Dream Team would be around 180 (approx. only) so expect his current price ($592,100) to drop over the next couple of rounds. Another player that would be an absolute bargain around the $500K mark.

 

Dean Cox (WCE) – Round Score: 51

Another who performed atrociously in Round 2, Cox meandered through the game against Melbourne, posting a score of only 51. This round 2 score resulted in a drop in price from $526,000 to $504,850 in AFL Fantasy and again a further price drop should be expected. With a break-even of approx. 145 in Real Dream Team we can expect his current price ($530,100) to drop close to the $500K range. With West Coast playing 3 talls in their first 2 games (Cox, Naitanui and Sinclair) it might pay to wait and see if this low score was just an aberration or if Cox will struggle to reach the lofty heights he has set over the past 5+ seasons.

 

Dane Swan (COL) – Round Score: 68

The DT Pig! Swanny is an absolute legend and I am not going to go on about how he ‘only’ scored 68 points in Round 2. The bloke had surgery on BOTH his wrists in the off-season which made him sit out of practically all of the pre-season ball work, so his hand skills probably aren’t as clean at the moment as we are used to. Swan is traditionally a slow starter so two rounds of sub-100 scores shouldn’t be too much of a worry. With a price drop in AFL Fantasy from $636,600 to $589,063 and an approx. break-even in Real Dream Team of 204 we could see his price plummet below $550,000 in both forms of the fantasy game. If he gets below $550K around his bye (round 8), I would be very tempted to jump on and enjoy the ride through to the end of the season.

 

A number of other players also had poor rounds and are worth keeping an eye on:

Corey Enright – 43 (injured his ankle and could possibly miss a couple of weeks)

Luke Hodge – 45 (groin injury and also could miss a week or more)

Grant Birchall – 47 (no excuses – played poorly)

Matthew Pavlich – 44 (no injury news so an off game)

Jarryd Roughead – 52 (another Hawk, another bad game)

 

Stats, stats, and more STATS!

Round 2 bought up a few statistics/numbers that I would like to share:

153 – The highest score of the round (again) this time scored by Geelong’s Steve Johnson. As the highest priced player in AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team this season the majority of coaches would have thought his price was too high, but were we all wrong?

138 – Highest average for the season so far, held by Melbourne captain Nathan Jones. What would the odds have been for Nathan Jones to be the leading scorer after the first 2 rounds? Those coaches that got on board – well done, and enjoy it whilst it lasts, which I don’t expect will be too long.

80 – Number of points scored by Gary Ablett against Fremantles’s Ryan Crowley. Crowley’s tagging ability is well documented and seems to have a negative effect on his opponents Fantasy score, so keep this in mind whenever one of your players is likely to be tagged by Crowley.

8,000+ – Number of places that DT Talk’s own Roy dropped after a disappointing round 2. After sitting 8^th after round 1 Roy put in a self-proclaimed dismal performance in Round 2 and fell back to the pack. Being a Fantasy superstar that he is I expect him to rebound strongly this week.

27,834 – Total points scored by all players in round 2, slightly down on the 28,143 scored in round 1. With most teams scoring around 1500-1600, the Bombers blitzed the pack with a massive team score of 1829! Will this be the norm under Coach Thompson?

55 – Number of players that scored over 100 in Round 2, with only Joel Selwood and Leigh Montagna being unable to exceed their 2013 average.

 

Who should I trade?

We have a maximum of two trades to use this week in both AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team, although both are under very different scenarios, as follows:

AFL Fantasy – 2 trades per week, every week. Use them or lose them.

Real Dream Team – 2 trades per week (3 in bye weeks) but a total of 30 trades for the season.

 

Even though both games have different rules, my thoughts are that the trading strategy should be similar this week. That strategy is to trade in those players likely to go up the most in price; to generate as much cash as possible.

If you don’t have players such as Langdon, Dunstan, Tyson, Polec and Sandilands I would be bringing them in as a priority. They all seem to have great job security and are likely to rise a great deal in price over the next few weeks.

 

The next strategy to employ is to trade out any long term injuries. Players such as Hodge, Enright, Sam Mitchell and Patrick Ryder are all under injury clouds and may be needed to be traded if their injuries are likely to keep them out for a decent period. Also, those with Nathan Fyfe may consider trading (maybe only in AFL Fantasy) as he is set to spend the next 2 weeks on the sidelines due to suspension.

 

Another strategy, and one that has in the past been frowned upon but I think is becoming more popular with the 2 trades a week in AFL Fantasy, is ‘fixture-trading’. Please note – I do not recommend this in Real Dream Team, only in AFL Fantasy.

If you have all of the cheap players that are going to rise in value, no injuries to speak of, and no other problems that might require some attention, why wouldn’t you consider trading out a player that has a tough match-up for a player that plays an ‘easy’ team? Keep an eye on ‘Calvin’s Captains’ to see who he thinks is likely to go big in Round 3 and if you have no other issues maybe consider getting in one (or two) of the players he thinks are going to score well in Round 3.

 

Well, that’s a wrap for Round 2. Please feel free to offer any suggestions as to any other information you would like to see, or provide feedback on what you thought of the article, either by commenting below or by hitting me up on Twitter at @pearcey47