NixTrader for R18 – with teams owned %

Here we are again.  Admiring all our gun players and the way all those premium averages add up to over 2,300+ with a captain.  All we have to do is make a few final super premo-upgrades to create a rolled-gold superteam and steam roll everyone in the finals.  We think the only hard decision is Captain choice …

But then the slow drip drip drip of carnage starts – Goodes breaks his wrist; Bartel not happy with 3 games averaging 70 gets suspended; Hanley finally gets his hands on the pill again but comes down with RSI; Franklin may not be back this week; and Gibbs, Cox and Tom Mitchell are looking shaky.

Another week where 2 trades don’t seem enough.  And it’s only Wednesday.  Suddenly we are looking at backline players we’ve never contemplated before – Ricky Henderson, David Myers and Trent Mckenzie.  OK we knew all of them had an appendage that went boom on TV, but we hadn’t seriously imagined them in our teams … especially not for the finals.

Updated Tables – Team Averages & Next Games

Updated tables showing DT performance for each team, both for and against, are below.  The right hand panel has the averages for just the last 5 rounds so you can see more recent form.  Each table is ranked according to the number in the shaded column.

Some points of interest:

• Essendon continue to crank out the most DT points and 100s, although expect this to be restricted because they have the worst home run.
• Melbourne still show up as conceding the most DT points, although their improvement is reflected by the fact that in the last 5 games they have conceded below average DT points.  On the plus side they still cough up over 4 100s per game.
• GWS is the reverse, they still give up quite a lot of DT points, but a lot less 100s.
• Brisbane have become a lot harder to DT score against recently – both in DT points and 100s.

The Next Rounds table below covers all the remaining games and shows which teams have the most helpful coming fixture for DT scores.  DT Finals games are shown in blue.  Two new columns were added on the right of this table showing the ownership percentage for each team.

Some points of interest

• Essendon have the worst run by a long way and Fremantle has the easiest run
• With the exception of Brisbane and Gold Coast, all the teams with the highest player ownership are at the bottom of the table (read that again!)

Ownership and Points of Difference

Always at this time of year coaches become captivated by uniques and PODs – i.e. points of difference between your team and your rivals.  Although with 44 trades if do you get a good POD this is relatively short lived because everyone will jump on – but they will usually pay a $ higher price.

So a great strategy for the next few rounds is to seek out PODs from the teams that have a good home run.  Luckily most of these teams have fairly low current ownership.

To help find PODs I’ve added 3 new columns to the search table in NixTrader.  These are:

• BE – Break even score, for a player to hold his current value
• Next $ change if the player scores his current average
• Ownership percentage at end of latest round.

You can sort and filter the search table as you want – for example here are the top 31 defenders ranked by current average.  The three new columns are on the right.

 

NixTrader Spreadsheet

Changes this week:

• Search tab – 3 new columns added as noted above.

 

Here is link to download spreadsheet (Excel2007) – NixTrader2013 R18 pub

 

Reminders from previous weeks:

• The team of the current overall leader is in NixTrader spreadsheet when you download it.  You can look at this team to see if you can learn anything from it, before replacing it with your own team.

• If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy and paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.

• After lockout, you can also use NixTrader to start planning for next week.  Just enter your players’ actual scores in the column for the current round to update your watchlist or trades.

• Younglings:  if you don’t have Excel2007 software on your device you can still download the file, put it on a usb stick and ask around to find someone with Excel2007 software and ask to borrow their computer for an hour or so.

• Mac users have reported Brandon Ellis (Richmond) is placed as an Adelaide player in bye and draw tables.  This doesn’t occur in Windows Excel.  Mac users should be aware of this if you add Brandon Ellis to your spreadsheet.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below, or tweet to @NixTrader.

 

————————– notes below are mostly the same each week ——————————————-

Brief instructions:

• You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.

• Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of next two rounds.  I have put in values for MN, but if you think you know enough about MN to prefer other numbers you can change them.

• Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.

• For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically.

• A projection for that player headed “Points Proj.”.  This is used as default in the calculations.  If a player has played more than 3 games this is their current average; if less than 3 games the projection is calculated from their starting price.

• There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the next 2 rounds.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.

• If you leave any cell blank, the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column headed “Points Proj.” is used as default in the calculations.

• The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.

• If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.

• There is a section to show the next 5 teams that player will face.  At the right of these 5 teams there are 4 percentages.  These show the variation in points and 100 scores that are predicted to come from playing that string of teams, over the next 3 and 5 weeks.  Percentages are based on the number of points and 100s each team has conceded so far this season.  Positive percentage says this run of teams is expected to concede more points and hundreds than average; negative percentage says these teams are likely to concede less points and hundreds than average.

FAQ:

• Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
  • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.

• Tech talk:
  • You need a device and software that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.
  • Even if you have other software that claims to support Excel files, the file still might not work properly, as every excel formula might not be supported.  This current file uses array formulas, I expect many non-excel spreadsheets won’t support array formulas, despite supporting other excel like functions.
  • The file will not operate fully in either Google docs or Skydrive Excel web app.
  • Mac users report that some of the team / bye data for Brandon Ellis is wrong.  This didn’t occur on Windows / PC and was only reported on a Mac.  Be aware of this if you are on a Mac and looking at Brandon Ellis in the spreadsheet.