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Deck of Dream Team

Jack Redden – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Jack Redden could be on his way to being one of our must have premium players in AFL Dream Team. See what Rainmain has to say about him and whether he should be in your starting side in 2013.

DeckofDTRedden

Name: Jack Redden
Club: Brisbane
Position: Midfield
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $531,100
Bye Round: 11
2012 Average: 103.1
2012 Games Played: 22
Predicted Average: 115+

Why should I pick him?

Jack Redden is a class act, and will only get better.

In 2011, Jack and Tom Rockliff set the world on fire and became known as the “RedRock” Combo. Jack in particular really showed the positive impact of a tackling machine on DT scoring.

Jack finished out the 2011 season with an average of a massive 109.2. Many thought that he would not be able to back it up in 2012…and for the start of the year, it looked like they may be right. After 5 rounds in 2012, Jack was averaging a paltry 84.4…. but then somebody must have reminded him that he was Jack Redden and better pick up his game… and he did.

His stats for the first 5 rounds as opposed to the rest of the year make for some interesting reading:

2012

Ave Kicks Ave Hball Ave Tackle DT Ave
First 5 rounds

9.8

12.6 4.6

84.4

Post first 5 rounds

12.5

12.4

7

108.5

He remembered to kick the ball, tackle when he didn’t have it and also snuck forward for the odd goal or two.

Whilst his RedRock counterpart suffered from Vossy thinking that he was a full forward, Jack had the freedom to do what he does best, attack the pill or the guy holding it.

He is a guy that doesn’t get a lot of kudos, but his numbers over the last 2 years are simply salivating.

Out of 44 matches across 2 years, he has scored over 100 29 times (66%) Compare this to say Trent Cotchin @ 26 out of 44 or (59%).

He doesn’t have an enormous ceiling, 138 in 2011 and 127 in 2012, but what he has is a very low standard deviation…non nerd speak. He is very consistent. Again if we compare his consistency to Cotchin

The lower the number the better:

 Year Redden Cotchin

2011

19.06

18.5

2012

18.39

20.57

I think the thing I like most about Redden is that when he scores a ton, 84% of the time that becomes over 110, and 38% over 120.

I can only see him getting better.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

He has some competition for midfield spots in your team given the number of spots available this year and how you want to structure your team.

He does traditionally finish better than he starts the year (10 points higher in 2011, 3 points higher in 2012) so may look at as an upgrade target.

What will crazy old Voss do with him? I cant see his role changing, but Vossy…hmmm..who knows (Is he becoming the new Ross Lyon?)

With the recruitment of Moloney, Rocky back into the mids and the continued development of some of the youngsters, will there be enough points to go around?

Not very convincing arguments I know, and I may be a little biased cause I think he is a dead set jet.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – I really cannot see any down side in picking up Jack. He has averaged over 100 for the past 2 seasons. I really like the Lions draw and I think that the recruitment of Moloney will really help Redden’s game. He is only 22 years of age, so I see a lot of years of DT goodness left in Jack.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RainmanDT for all things DT (and more). Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

 

Rainman, like the DT Talk boys, hails from Tasmania. Not only does he love his kids, but he loves a stat... almost as much as he loves a hashtag! Follow him on Twitter: @RainmanDT.

43 Comments

43 Comments

  1. Avatar

    nickc

    December 21, 2012 at 8:15 am

    Nice one Griff!
    I’ve been waiting for Redden and his numbers do stack up, however I’ve got Rocky in my squad at the moment. In saying that, it’ll probably change 100 times between now and kickoff!

    • Avatar

      Ridley U

      December 21, 2012 at 10:07 am

      I have called rainman many things before but never Griff!

      • Avatar

        daniel

        December 21, 2012 at 10:18 am

        There must have been a glitch, as when this article first appeared it said it was posted by RLGriffin.

        • Avatar

          Shorty

          December 21, 2012 at 1:12 pm

          yeah it said it was by Griff at the start.

          • Avatar

            Ridley U

            December 21, 2012 at 3:01 pm

            Haha!

      • Avatar

        RLGriffin

        December 21, 2012 at 1:13 pm

        I like to calk Rainman Percy. But that’s a different story. I posted the article on Percy’s behalf as he was having issues, and it automatically stamped my name to it. I assure you this great write up was entirely the hard work of the Rainman.

        • Avatar

          rainman

          December 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm

          Thanks for helping me out Griff….whom I like to call Griff.

  2. Avatar

    Shorty

    December 21, 2012 at 8:19 am

    Great write up Griffin!! Agree on everything! He is only of my biggest lock’s in my side right now. Sitting at M4 in my team along with Beams, Cotchin, Pendlbury, O’Keefe and Embley.

    • Avatar

      Ridley U

      December 21, 2012 at 10:06 am

      Who is this Griffin you talk about?

      • Avatar

        RLGriffin

        December 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm

        Lol

  3. Avatar

    Big Feller

    December 21, 2012 at 8:28 am

    Lock him in Eddie!
    I’m on the Red Roc Berger combo this year and I’m hoping it’s gonna be fat and juicy!

    • Avatar

      Shorty

      December 21, 2012 at 9:44 am

      +1 same here!

    • Avatar

      deez go

      December 21, 2012 at 11:08 am

      +1Yes please. Me too

  4. Avatar

    Justin

    December 21, 2012 at 9:48 am

    Should be a good pick. But my concern is why did he have a down year? There is no reason behind it like a Murphy or Mundy.

    • Avatar

      mordja

      December 21, 2012 at 10:12 am

      Agree w/ Justin

      Between the changes going on in the midfield with Moloney coming in, and the fact that he’s unlikely to go apesh!t crazy on the scoring due to his low ceiling, why not just wait and upgrade to him later?

      • Avatar

        mordja

        December 21, 2012 at 10:13 am

        Oops apologies Rainman, great article, made for interesting reading.

      • Avatar

        deez go

        December 21, 2012 at 11:07 am

        Uhhh. The Brisbane Lions have a midfield like this:
        Leuenberger Moloney Rockliff
        Rich Black Redden.
        I think he fits in there…

    • Avatar

      Dream on!

      December 21, 2012 at 10:14 am

      +1. That’s a slight concern for me as well. He could well be a slow starter. Whereas I had Murph to begin with this year and he was firing from the get-go (he actually increased in price despite the MN drop) so that’s probably swayed me towards Murph. We all know how Stanton started the season, so that’s probably why I’ve got these two and no Reddden at the moment.

  5. Avatar

    Ridley U

    December 21, 2012 at 10:05 am

    Love your work Rainman!!!

    This is why you are held is such high regard when it comes to DT. The amount of research you put into these articles is second to none.

    Rids and rainman doing 2013 preseason together is looking better by the day ;-)

    Fossils for the FJ!

    • Avatar

      rainman

      December 21, 2012 at 10:24 am

      HAHA.. Cheers Buddy.

      You know me.. i love my stats.

      I call shotgun in the FJ

      • Avatar

        Big Feller

        December 21, 2012 at 11:35 am

        So you’re already conceeding that Rids is gonna win it!!!

        • Avatar

          rainman

          December 21, 2012 at 4:22 pm

          You have clearly never driven an FJ… Consolation prize is the driver

      • Avatar

        Austin Pwrz

        December 21, 2012 at 12:55 pm

        Nice article Rob, if I go a 5th premo mid he is def in contention!

    • Avatar

      joseph

      December 21, 2012 at 3:22 pm

      Fossils won’t even get top 1000 :P

  6. Avatar

    PurpleArmy (aka Space Goats)

    December 21, 2012 at 10:30 am

    Gotta love a guy who racks up the possessions while being a tackling machine. Cant see Moloney/Rockliff affecting his scores too much. One of my locks for ’13

  7. Avatar

    eeepo

    December 21, 2012 at 10:38 am

    Wonderful work Rainman!
    Most definitely an upgrade target for me, but yeah, would be a terrific pick to start with as well!

  8. Avatar

    dools

    December 21, 2012 at 10:43 am

    Very nice article Eddie Griff Griffin, now theres a name I won’t forget!! Loved your use of stats, the ave of tonnes over the last 2 years and how often the become 110’s,120’s was particularly tasty. The kids only 22 and will only get better, was already in my team but not 100% locked before this, now he’s bolted up like fort knox. cheers Ed!!

  9. Avatar

    DoubleA

    December 21, 2012 at 10:47 am

    I realize everyone says this about nearly every player, but the news out of the Lions camp is that Redden is blitzing the early preseason training. Given his young age and the fact that he is still bulking up, and that Black will still be the one copping a hard tag most games, I see nothing but upside for Redden. The only problem for me is my side’s looking like its going to be a little stacked with Lions. Red Roc Burger is a lock for me, but then there is Staker (assuming he’s cheap), Beams (rate him), Docherty (assuming he’s cheap too), Zorko, and even Callum Bartlett (if his body is finally healthy, he could be a nice ‘maturish’ rookie option depending on how he goes in pre-season). Hmm. Decisions.

    • Avatar

      rainman

      December 21, 2012 at 4:51 pm

      I have 6 lions at the moment.

  10. Avatar

    Semisonic

    December 21, 2012 at 11:21 am

    I’ll wait on him. I”ve got the mids pretty set for the time being and would like to see how he’s going first

  11. Avatar

    Bruce Dual

    December 21, 2012 at 12:34 pm

    Two words – super durable.

  12. Avatar

    tigers1980

    December 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    Keep an eye on him during preseason.

    I have NDS and Mundy as 4 and 5 midfield options at the moment.

  13. Avatar

    graham allen

    December 21, 2012 at 2:32 pm

    my concern is he will now get the big tag. cant see black playing the full season, already had a bit of a knee clean up. My thought here is if rich starts the season like he finished it with moloney redden and sometimes black smashing folk left right and sundry then rich is the man for the scraps to hammer it large into the square or through the middle. Racking up points and averaging 100+ for 100k cheaper. I think the lions are going places!!!!! thoughts?

    • Avatar

      rainman

      December 21, 2012 at 4:51 pm

      I don’t see his disposal as damaging as that off Rich, Black or Rocky. I would think that opposition coaches would target them first.

      Also 25% of his points are through tackles, opposition attention is not going to change that.

  14. Damo

    Damo

    December 21, 2012 at 6:28 pm

    I personally passed on him the past couple years so its about time I give him a chance. Near-lock for me!

    • Avatar

      PurpleArmy (aka Space Goats)

      December 21, 2012 at 7:02 pm

      yeah me too, was one of those guys i wanted to pick but just couldn’t. Now its stupid not too.

    • Avatar

      Lenny

      December 21, 2012 at 11:21 pm

      Yeah same here… however I am getting him this season for sure! As purple Army said earlier “Gotta love a guy who racks up the possessions while being a tackling machine”… Love your write-ups Rainman!

  15. POK

    POK

    December 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm

    This article has persuaded me into picking him and changing my whole team structure.
    In nine months time I’ll let you know if I love ya or hate ya griff :)

    • Avatar

      Brappinalong

      December 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm

      Raiman…lol

      • POK

        POK

        December 21, 2012 at 10:23 pm

        shit from me :(

  16. Avatar

    bryzza

    December 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm

    for all those experts out there ……………….. any chance you can post who were the form players for last five rounds of the seasons

    • Avatar

      Shorty

      December 22, 2012 at 7:35 am

      I have one. Off the top of my head (As i just mentioned this in MyTeam) O’Keefe averaged 110.5 in 11 games after his bye. He continued this to average 145 in Sydney’s three finals. If we were to Include these finals scores it would bump his 2nd half average to 118 from 14 games.

  17. Avatar

    Kudos

    December 22, 2012 at 6:52 pm

    Long way to go, but I’m struggling to decide between Murph and Redden, both DT guns…

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