Here are a couple of value bets for tonight’s game.
Group 1: In the last month Josh Kennedy has been a ball winning machine collecting 33, 35, 24 and 35 touches. The week before this run he collected 40 against the Pies in his season best for the year. It is always risky and against my instinct to bet against my favourites Beams, Swanny and Pendles but at 6.50, his form suggests he is a bargain.
Group 2: Swan Rhys Shaw provides great value here at $8. In his last 3 games he has twice collected 27 touches and last time he played the Pies he had 23 which will be competitive against his opposition. McVeigh is rightly the short favourite as he is the best ball winner in the group but tagged O’Brien in their last hit out which kept his stats down to 19 disposals and Bird did a similar role on Shaw (fingers crossed McVeigh has a defensive job). Wellingham rarely gets to 20 touches and it should be only Thomas nipping at his heels if, in the unlikely event he is given some space.
Head to Head: I am putting a bit of faith in Rhys Shaw tonight (who knows why) but he is 2.05 to beat Heath who has failed to reach 20 touches in his last 2 games against the Swans and was tagged in the last 1. Heath has managed to collect 20 touches in just 1 game in his last 7 outings. So realistically I am actually showing a lack of faith in Heath for this bet.