Player Projections for DT Finals – Forwards

Here’s the last instalment – Forwards.

 

The weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections.

 

Player	Price	F1	Score	F2	Score	SF	Score	GF	Score	Finals Average
Dayne Beams	$510,500	SYD	112	NME	112	WCE	112	ESS	109	111
Lance Franklin	$511,500	PTA	107	GC	107	SYD	115	WCE	105	109
Paul Chapman	$489,900	WCE	102	STK	104	WB	112	SYD	107	106
Dayne Zorko	$439,100	CAR	103	ADE	101	PTA	100	WB	107	103
Steve Johnson	$450,700	WCE	94	STK	91	WB	118	SYD	102	101
Mitch Robinson	$445,700	BRIS	94	ESS	98	GC	100	STK	94	96
Matthew Pavlich	$476,300	ADE	88	RIC	101	NME	101	MEL	94	96
Steele Sidebottom	$456,400	SYD	76	NME	100	WCE	96	ESS	99	93
Ryan O’Keefe	$455,600	COL	99	WB	92	HAW	90	GEE	87	92
Jordan Lewis	$407,300	PTA	91	GC	95	SYD	85	WCE	90	90
Danny Stanley	$417,500	GWS	93	HAW	86	CAR	84	ADE	93	89
Brendan Whitecross	$403,400	PTA	89	GC	96	SYD	82	WCE	75	86
Cyril Rioli	$421,400	PTA	95	GC	92	SYD	72	WCE	84	86
Nick Riewoldt	$381,800	MEL	90	GEE	81	GWS	92	CARL	77	85
Patrick Dangerfield	$403,900	FRE	92	BRIS	66	MEL	92	GC	88	85
Harley Bennell	$391,900	GWS	86	HAW	87	CAR	80	ADE	78	83
Dustin Martin	$382,200	WB	90	FRE	74	ESS	84	PTA	82	83
Taylor Walker	$383,800	FRE	80	BRIS	82	MEL	52	GC	87	75
Michael Johnson	$375,200	ADE	76	RIC	74	NME	73	MEL	75	75
Jack Anthony	$168,100	ADE	34	RIC	36	NME	40	MEL	31	35

 

The verdict

I’m pretty sure we all have Dayne Beams by now and rightly so as the reuniting of Swanny and Pendles will hopefully give Beams his freedom back so he can decimate his opposition during finals. I really hope you held on to Buddy because when he returns I’m pretty sure he’s going to be better value than Goodes. I’m happy for him to miss the next three if it means an uninterrupted finals series.

Deciding between Chappy and Stevie J is a decision that I envision many of us have dealt with at some point this season (and previous ones). True to what we’ve come to expect from him, Chappy looks like he’s going to give us solid contributions throughout the four weeks which, if you’re like me, makes him a lock. If you already have him and are keeping an eye on Stevie J then listen up. If Sydney has cemented a top 2 spot by round 22, they might be tempted to keep some guys at home and rest them up for their qualifying final the following week instead of risking them in a bruising game at Kardinia against a Geelong team that might be going for broke. If that happens and the game opens up, there is a potential for Stevie J to annihilate them as he does to most teams who visit Geelong. Even at the SCG, a hard tag from Nick Smith has only kept him to around 85 in recent matches. With a home game against the Doggies the week before (a team he obliterates because Picken goes to Selwood), he is almost worth a sideways trade halfway through finals if this scenario plays out. Given that Brendan Whitecross and Jordan Lewis play Port and Gold Coast in their first two finals games, followed by Sydney and West Coast, these two shape up as prime sideways offloads. Dustin Martin is another.

For those of you who, like myself, brought Dayne Zorko in to cover Dustin Martin during finals, it’s pretty clear that those roles will be reversed. Zorko has shown us no reason to remove him from our field since he debuted (he’s allowed 26 as sub and 69 after copping one in the face before half time) and unless something horrific happens in the next three matches, he is a finals starter.

On recent form you’d probably have to go with Pav over ADHD Robbo, but I don’t see a lot separating these two over the last four. Sure Robbo will probably see more time on the ball in Juddy’s absence but that’s only good for the first week of finals and thereafter we’re back to normal. Even their coach ownership numbers are similar at 21.7% and 17.7%, respectively. Toss a coin.

For the destitute I see only two options, Patrick Dangerfield is one. The other, who is also a point of difference, is Danny Stanley who is only owned by a ludicrous 1.17% of coaches (okay maybe he did miss the first seven matches). He is a champ. I don’t care if he’s out this week, all the more reason for him to come back refreshed in time for finals (his first game of this year in round 8 was a 105). If you’re looking for someone on the cheaper side who is also a point of difference, you can’t go past this guy. The only other point of difference is Jordan Lewis, who I’ve already mentioned finishes with two tough ones. In his last three games of 2010 and 2011 he did average 110 though so don’t waste a trade getting rid of him if you have him – he’ll be serviceable.

I can guarantee you that Rioli will get Rhys Shaw and A. Selwood respectively in his last two games, which doesn’t bode well for coaches relying on him in prelims and GFs. Ryan O’Keefe is the same price as Steele (so don’t be stupid), Riewoldt will be having a cry, Harley is still a year or two from being a legit option and Walker and Johnson are too unpredictable, so I’d be overlooking these guys.

I know people will mention Colin Sylvia and fair enough. I see him only as a smokey though as we need reliable players during finals who have a history of producing the goods. Colin Sylvia has a history of causing nervous break downs with his sub-par performances late in the season. Purchase at your own peril. Goodesy is a better option.

Finally I’ve included Jack so we can gauge his (lack of) ability. Look how he compares to a superstar in Pav – how frustrating must it be for Pav to play alongside what is essentially a witch’s hat? At least a witch’s hat wouldn’t turn the ball over though. Let’s just hope that the club will allow its greatest ever player to stay focused for the remainder of the year and aren’t creating off field dramas by trying to a) poach a new coach for 2013; b) trade Nat Fyfe for some nuff; or c) breed Jack Anthony and Zac Dawson to produce a player so detestable that he’ll no doubt be snapped up by them with a first round draft pick.

Thanks for the feedback, I hope I’ve been some kind of help and all the best for finals.

From 155,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

DOWNLOAD THE SPREADSHEET: Finals-Projections.xlsx