Player Projections for DT Finals – Defenders

So it’s almost finals time. Pre-empting my top four finish (yeah right), I’m using my last two trades this week but for those of you who are good coaches or have been lucky enough to avoid this year’s carnage, you still might a have a few left at your disposal. My good friend Kane falls into the ‘good coach’ category and last week reminded me that, at this point of the season, the guys we bring in will be with us for our tilt at the flag. With that in mind, he insisted that it’s essential to make sure the guys we upgrade to have a good finals draw and can smash out tons when we need them most. Hopefully the following can help you make the right decision if you’re tossing up between a few different upgrade options. Also, it might reveal who should be on your field during different weeks of finals.

 

Basically, I’ve put together a pretty rudimentary formula to project how the best DT players will score in each of our four DT finals matches. I’ve only considered the top 20 players (based on season average) in each position, who have played at least 8 games. Today I start with the defensive options.

 

For those interested in the maths, I’ve used a weighting to determine the projections. I assume it probably shares some loose similarities to that used by Assistant Coach, although it’s probably more realistic, given that I rarely get within 200 points of my Assistant Coach’s absurd projection. I’ve only included data from the last two years because I reckon some teams have changed tactics/coaches since 2010 (i.e. West Coast). I appreciate that’s not the case for all teams (i.e Freo, who have been consistently shit since 1995 and should just fold), but I’ve tried to make it as relevant as possible.

 

The weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

So here goes…

Player	Price	F1	Score	F2	Score	SF	Score	GF	Score	Finals Average
Brett Deledio	$500,300	WB	106	FRE	104	ESS	110	PT	106	107
Andrew Carrazzo	$437,000	BRIS	98	ESS	109	GC	89	STK	100	99
Beau Waters	$450,000	GEE	109	PT	81	COL	98	HAW	106	99
Heath Scotland	$424,100	BRIS	100	ESS	102	GC	90	STK	98	97
Grant Birchall	$428,300	PT	91	GC	94	SYD	98	WCE	95	95
Brendon Goddard	$390,900	MEL	88	GEE	89	GWS	95	CARL	92	91
Jack Grimes	$385,600	STK	94	GWS	92	ADE	86	FRE	89	90
Matthew Suckling	$382,300	PT	88	GC	91	SYD	83	WCE	88	87
Dyson Heppell	$375,800	NME	80	CAR	86	RIC	89	COLL	93	87
Corey Enright	$403,100	WCE	80	STK	87	WB	90	SYD	90	87
Pearce Hanley	$431,100	CAR	74	ADE	90	PTA	91	WB	90	86
Heath Shaw	$374,200	SYD	72	NME	85	WCE	92	ESS	94	86
Jed Adcock	$373,100	CAR	74	ADE	78	PTA	90	WB	85	82
Jason Gram	$363,000	MEL	78	GEE	86	GWS	81	CARL	80	81
Brent Guerra	$332,500	PT	76	GC	72	SYD	90	WCE	79	79
Greg Broughton	$326,000	ADE	76	RIC	80	NME	90	MEL	70	79
Shannon Hurn	$361,900	GEE	77	PT	78	COL	90	HAW	69	79
Brian Lake	$355,800	RIC	69	SYD	69	GEE	90	BRI	79	77
Nathan Grima	$341,200	ESS	65	COL	71	FRE	90	GWS	79	76
Michael Johnson	$375,200	ADE	76	RIC	74	NME	73	MEL	75	75

 

The verdict

If you don’t have Lids, it’s pretty safe to say that you’re the dream team coach equivalent of Jack Anthony and won’t be anywhere near finals, let alone literate and reading this, so we’ll skip him. Carrazzo’s going to smash the last four games and Scotland won’t be far behind so they should be locks if you can afford them. It looks like anyone who held on to Waters might just be a genius (especially given his GF projection), as long as he gets himself back soon. For those of you who traded him, I hope it was to Birch who looks like a solid alternative. The most interesting finding of the analysis might be Jack Grimes, who is projected to be the seventh best defender during finals and should also provide a reasonable point of difference – definitely one to consider. There shouldn’t be too much separating Enright and Suckling, but each finishes season with a tricky match so I might even be inclined to stay away. Finally, if you’ve cemented a top 4 position and are confident you’ll win your qualifying final, Heath Shaw or HepD might be smokies as they should get better the deeper into finals you progress. I don’t think anyone else in this group is a viable option, least of all the Fremantle duo who will be too busy being shit to win you your league.

 

Midfielders to follow.

 

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.