So the carnage eased a touch last round, but didn’t cease. We had a few late withdrawals but nothing like last week. We did suffer some injuries, but the main one, Goodesy at least came after he had scored a ton for his owners. However, he and McEvoy now both need to be traded out due to LTI’s, however we will have a bit of a chat about trades shortly!
One of the other thing that we were hit with this week is the reminder that the scoring of our GWS rookies will be inconsistent. Devon Smith was widely touted as someone to get out of your teams last week and I was going to do just that but then had the Fyfe LTI to deal with so didn’t. But just to show us that he still has some cash to make he came out and smashed a 97. Just don’t fall victim to good old Captain Hindsight as there is absolutely nothing you can do about it and most importantly, don’t look to trade those rookies back in! I know people that have done this in the past and it is simply wasting trades.
Speaking of Captains…. I am sure that Calvin will make sure that no-one hijacks his Captains List this week like Chook did last week. With your captain selection, make it early and stick with your gut (unless there is a late change before lockout which forces you to change).
Would you like Fries with that?
Oh how many times have we heard that phrase! Well, it is that time of the Dreamteam season where we do need to start upgrading our players from mid-pricers/increased rookies into premiums. Our cows in the paddock are starting to head towards what they think is the golden barn with the top quality hay in it, but it is really just their DT coaches hiding behind the door with the axe out ready to cull them to make way for better models!
A bit of DT101 here for our newer coaches, but it is time to start checking the BE’s of your rookies and seeing who has reached their max payout. This is really easy with the Assistant Coach package, just click that little slide button up the top right of your team and you can see their predicted score and their BE. Check their BE against their averages and if the resulting number when you dedct one from the other is a single digit or the BE is higher than the average, it is really time to start thinking about selling.
Conversely, look at those guys that have ridiculously low BE’s as your upgrade targets. This week that would include Dyson Heppell, Stevie J, Zaharakis and ROK. These guys will all go up in price next week, so if you have them on your list of guys to get, then jump on now.
If you are looking at blokes like Murphy, Sam Mitchell or Goddard you may want to wait another week or so as they have quite high BE’s and would be a fair bet to drop in price over the next week or so.
Don’t Cash Cows go Moooo not Neigh??
Clearly the biggest downgrade target this week is our mate Kyal Horsley (or The Horse as he is being referred to around the place) and if you don’t plan to have him after reading Chook’s Rooks earlier this week and also Tbetta’s Bullets from Monday, then I am not sure that you are taking DT seriously enough! You just have to work out who to downgrade for him. The biggest candidates that I have been hearing are Jimmy Magner and Dylan Shiel. Now I know what you are saying… “but Dunny they are nowhere near their BEs yet” … and this would be true, but they are only going to make you 10k – 25k a week now, whereas if Kyal reaches his average he will make you $104k this week alone!
A question that I put out on Twitter this week was “When you get Horsley in, are you going to play him on your field and if so, who in front of”. The result was a resounding “ON THE FIELD”. Everyone thought that he was a better option to have on the field in front of guys like Magner, Shiel, Treloar and Coniglio. He has had two sensational first weeks and the biggest worry that we have is that with Ablett back this week we are all really hoping that there is no flow on effect to decrease Horsely’s score.
Personally I plan to have him on the park too at the moment, I am really hoping that this guy won’t be the second coming of Beau Muston who lured us in with two 100’s, we all jumped on, then he scored a rubbish score and was then never heard from again!
Tis the Season
We are at my favourite time of the year and that is the Trading Season! I know that I have a trading addiction and I am dealing with it. A big thanks to the guys at Virtual Sports for the Reverse Trade button as it means that I can satisfy my addiction without stuffing up my team!
Just make sure that while we are doing our upgrades (which we have already discussed) that you are thinking ahead. Start to plan out your final team and work out how many trades it will take you to get there. Just remember that you need to make sure that you have some trades left for the DT Finals and the inevitable visits from the General which will leave some of your stars sitting on the bench and not winning your way to glory.
The other issue that we have this year is the Multi Bye rounds, you should be looking at the guys you are trading out and the ones that you are trading in and making sure that they don’t destroy your team completely during the bye weeks. But similarly, don’t simply rely on the fact that you can “trade your way around the byes”. Even though you have 3 trades a week for those weeks, this means that 9 of your 24 trades are done if you use this strategy. Leaving you with 15 and you have probably already used 4 so you only have 11 left now. Then if you save 6 for the finals, this leaves you with only 5 for upgrades and downgrades. I am sure that any student in Warnie’s maths class can tell you that this is simply not enough trades to get you a championship. So a well structured team heading into the bye rounds will really help you avoid having to use trades for this purpose with a bit of luck.
So based on that, I thik that it would be inefficient to try and trade around your bye’s, rather the use of carefully crafted upgrades is a better strategy and one that I am certainly trying to employ.
In relation to the Bye rounds there will be plenty of help for you on this site leading up to them so stay tuned.
Ablett Rises …. It’s a Miracle
Well stuff me, he is back. I have been telling everyone that GAJ wouldn’t play this week. This was especially after that secret footage I saw from Roy that showed him break down whilst running. Personally I still think that he will be a late withdrawal. Well if you have him then you have to make sure you have put him back on the field. Just make sure that you have got some bench cover.
If you traded him out like the boys did then what you need to do is prepare yourself for next week if you plan to get him back in. At the moment his BE is sitting at 127 and if he hits his projected score of 137 he will only go up by $4,200. But the week after that he will then have a BE of 156 against the Dogs in Darwin where it is traditionally difficult to be clean with the ball so there is a lot of fumbling. So if he gets his projected score in that game of 143 he will actually fall in value to be $900 cheaper than he currently is. That would be the time to get on him as the 162 he scored against Essendon will be out of his price cycle and his BE drops right down to a very achievable 108. So to sum up, don’t despair. Wait one or two weeks and he shouldn’t cost you any more than what he does right now.
Things to Remember for Round 7
- Trade Horsley In – This guy is the biggest lock since Mr Lockwood and his brother got together and decided that they needed something to keep the shed secure!
- Trade Out Goodes and McEvoy – These guys have LTI’s that mean they are a must trade.
- Put GAJ back on the park – If you were clever enough to keep him then for his old man’s sake, get him back on the field. Just make sure you have cover.
- Always keep your ears open on Friday Avo – Last week there was some late mail, like Kreuz getting a game and Selwood likely to miss, so keep your ears open so that you can avoid any carnage if possible.
- Trade Horsley In – Just in case you missed it the first time!
Make sure you are ready for the round by doing your trades to get in Horsely and make sure you have cover just in case Ablett is out. Have a great round and hopefully you can score yourself over 2200. Also don’t forget your Eliminator matchup, I have just checked mine and found out that this week will actually be a competition unlike last week!
Keen to hear what you have to say about my trading theories and whether you are playing Horsely on the park this week.
Cheers and catch me on Twitter if you don’t already @pkd73