The Friday Scramble: Round 4

Last week was a shocker, this has been well documented.  But like they say in the cliche’s, you need to put this week behind you and take it one week at a time.  This week we have some more decisions to make.  The biggest one of all has come due to Nat Fyfe’s dodgy shoulder.  Just when we thought it was going to be a better week though, we then have a bit of carnage at the selection table.

We have had our first round of league games and have had some ups and downs.  I must say that in some of the teams that I played last week I saw some interesting player selections.   You are going to see a lot of this, if you lose to one of these teams that have a unique that you don’t have and they smash it for just that week, don’t stray from your strategy.  Make informed decisions and stick to your guns.

Why the hell did I pick that guy!

Last week we had some bad scores and bad luck.  We have some players that are really underperforming like Dusty Martin. He has scored a 79, 75 and 64 so far, this isn’t quite what we paid for to be honest, but there is only one piece of advice that I have in regards to this.  You decided to pick him for a reason and you should stick with your plan.  I have heard a lot on twitter this week that people are starting to plan on trading thier underperforming premiums.  Given that we are only at round 3 completed, there is no reason to panic.  If you are lucky you still have 24 trades left, but I think most people (including me) have 23 left currently after doing a swap from an underperforming rookie to a performing rookie last week.  I would be saving these trades.  Just remember what your plan was.  You would have gone into the season picking some guys in your initial squad that should still be there at the end of the year.  If you are thinking about trading one of these guys now, you really need to be sure of it and 100% sure that the guy you are trading to is going to be in your team at the end of the year.

 Trying to catch Lightning in a Bottle

In the DT off season I play a bit of NBA fantasy sports.  One of the podcasts I listen to has a guy whose favourite thing to say is “Don’t try and catch Lightning in a Bottle”.  I fear that this is what a lot of people are trying to do.  I have heard some comments this week about people wanting to sideways trade.  Lets have a look at how this went for a few people last week.

• Broughton to Dempsey People jumped off Broughts quickly, and I must say I considered it but resisted.  However, they jumped from him to Dempsey.  We all know the results of that now.  Dempsey scored himself a 10 following his 94 and 63  compared to Broughton’s 109 after his 59 and 63.

This week I have seen twitter traffic (is that Twaffic?) about a swap from Golby to Conca.  Whilst Mitch Golby hasn’t been the player we were hoping for (me included) he has returned a 77, 59 and 63 for his starting price of $265,200 and has a BE of 62 which drops to 40 next week if he hits his projected score of 60.  Lets compare this to Conca who has scored a sub affected 35, 85 and 134 and has a BE of -24.  He is projected to increase greatly in price.  This is the main reason for people wanting to do this trade.  He will get you some quick cash but it comes at a great cost.  A trade!  Let’s look at the plan.  You are thinking of getting say Goddard with this trade.  You trade Golby to Conca and then upgrade him to Goddard after trading in another cow.  This has used 2 trades.  If you keep Golby and use another of your Cows to get the cash to get to Goddard from Golby you have only used the one trade.

The other thing that a lot of us did last week was try to jump all over Toby Greene last week as we could see he had a big negative break even.  Well he didn’t perform anywhere near as well as we had hoped last week and to top that all off we can give a big Stuff You Sheeds!  as he has become yet another victim of The General, General Soreness this week.  But once again, remember, you may have burnt one trade to get him in, don’t burn yet another to get him out just on that one fact.  He will be back, you are pretty much committed to him now.  He will go up, it is just a matter of him playing again and that won’t be far away.

I guess the moral of the story is that you need to conserve trades and make sure that any trades that you are making fall in line with your strategy that you started the year with.

 Rookie Randomness

Each week with all these rookies in our teams we inevitably have one or two spots on our field in each line that will need to be covered by a Rookie.  One of the things that is the most difficult choice for us each week is knowing which of these should be on our field earning us points each week.  Last week the big decision that people had to make was Bugg, Ellis or Morris on the field.  There was a lot of discussion and many people went with the Tiger boys because they were playing Melbourne only to see Buggy smash their scores.  The other area of the field that we thought was a lock which was the midfield, we all had The Magnet and expected another 100.  Remember it was only his third game and be happy that he is playing and scoring!

Just make sure that you realise that these guys are all rookies and are all heading into only their 4th game of footy so they will be inconsistent.

For mine this week, I would be selecting Bugg over the two Tiger boys and would pick Morris  over Ellis.  As for the Magnet, play him.  I would back him to outscore any of your other rookie mids just given his early couple of games.  Beyond him I think Kennedy  then Shiel.

The Avatar in the Room…

Well the saying might be Elephant, but the guy is built like a stick insect with way too much hair!  Nat Fyfe has been named and based on that we can only assume he will play.  The key for this week is to make sure that you are near a computer or your iphone (or android) just in case he is a late withdrawal.  I don’t think that he will get himself a green vest (which looked resplendant on Roy on Thurs night) but he is a massive chance for a red one if he gets a knock.  The surgeon has said that he will need surgery, but it is only a matter of when.  He thinks he can play out the season and based on that we have to assume that this is correct.  

If he plays, I keep him.  It is as simple as that.  Just remember that last year he had shoulder issues all year and he kept pumping out the massive scores.  I just think that a sideways trade at this stage is a risky thing, but having said that many of you may think that just his shoulders make him a massive risk.  At the end of the day it is you that hits the Trade Complete button and it comes down to your risk appetite.  The boys on the live show all agree with me that it isn’t worth the trade. 

The one thing that I would not advise is something I have heard around the place this week is that some people are thinking of trading him out and then bringing him back into their teams in a few weeks when he drops in price.  I just can’t see this being worth it as you only get 24 trades (unless you are Roy with the 26 he mentioned on Thurs night) and you have to use them wisely.

It was only a matter of time Heater…

Well on top of the crap scores that he has been posting, Heath Shaw is now out for two weeks with a Hammy along with Dale Thomas.  Heater has posted scores of 56, 66 and 81.  I think that when you bought Heath you knew what you were getting yourself into, but I think you would have expected better scores than this.  I think that this is one of the times that you may wish to sell before he does have another massive drop in price.  The other thing that makes me think he might be worth ditching is that it is a soft tissue injury for 2 weeks.  Those types of injuries can cause ongoing issues and could see him out for more than just this stint during the year.

Things to Remember for Round 4

• Check Ya Bench!  Make sure that you have moved Adam Goodes, Brian Lake and Heath Shaw to your bench.  None of them are playing so last time I checked, they won’t score too well.  Oh, and if you have considered trading Goodes, reach for the mouse and navigate to the Delete Team button and click on it.  You don’t trade a premium if they are out suspended for only one week.
• Pick Ya Captain.  Check out Calvin’s Captains from Wednesday to pick out your captain.  Many of us will go with our Perma Captain GAJ.  However, there is some valuable info and may make you think twice about Gazza.  But since most of the competition are going to have him, then you may want to stick with him just in case.
• Select Ya Emergencies.  Last week I played against a guy that hadn’t selected any emergencies for his team!  Well stuff me if he didn’t have a guy that wasn’t playing and left some points on the bench.  That is the last thing we want to have happen.
• Don’t Question Ya Strategy.  Stick with your plans.  You made them and you should stay with them.  Everything I have seen over the past few years is that guys who stay true to their teams and save trades are the ones that do the best.

Lastly, the guy that you should be trading is Matthew Leuenberger.  He has been put on the Long Term Injury list which means that he is now out for a minimum of 6 weeks.  So this should be more than enough for you to trade him out.

Round 4… bring it on!  We have had one league game and you don’t want to go 0-2 as it will take a while to come back from there!  Particularly when you have probably been spruiking your team to all your work mates for the last few weeks!  Last week I got up in 4 leagues and lost one of them.  I am hoping to recover in that league I lost in and come back with a win.  Sorry if I have missed any topics you wanted covered this week.  Next week let me know what you want to hear about during the week on Twitter @pkd73.

Now not only will round 4 be finished by the time that you hear from me again, we will have had the first game of round 5 on Anzac day.  I don’t think there are too many things that you will need from me for that game as there are no rookies that you would be playing but all the guys you would have are a lock in your starting line up.  Good luck and have a great Anzac Day and get yourself out to a Dawn Service and support our returned servicemen and servicewomen if you can.