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Breakout?

Remember 2010… When things were simple? Vests were something worn by grey haired ladies and trout fisherman. The substitute rule was a cunning tactic used by wingmen across the country. The Suns were an NBA team out of Phoenix and Garry Jr was racking up a million possies down at the Cattery. Most importantly there were two young guys running around the Gabba named Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden.

Remember 2010… When things were simple?

Vests were something worn by grey haired ladies and trout fisherman.

The substitute rule was a cunning tactic used by wingmen across the country.

The Suns were an NBA team out of Phoenix and Garry Jr was racking up a million possies down at the Cattery.

Most importantly there were two young guys running around the Gabba named Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden. Little did we know that these two would turn out stellar years in 2011…moving them up into the elite category…..or did we?

What can we read in to their 2010 stats?

Can we use this model to predict the next breakouts in 2011?

I think we can… yes be warned, I am only looking at stats, but I believe that there are a lot of parallels between the REDROCK model of 2010, and a few of the young brigade of 2011.

Firstly let’s look at some stats of Red and Rock for 2010.

 

Redden

Rockliff

Games Played (2010)

22

19

Games Played (Career)

32

21

Age

21

21

Disposals

18

23

K/H Ratio

50%

52%

Tackles

5.2

3.3

DT Ave (Full Year)

87

89

DT Ave (1st Half)

69

79

DT Ave (2nd Half)

90

94

Diff in  (1st/2nd)

21

15

Scores over 90

10

10

Scores under 90

12

9

% over 90

45%

53%

Average when under 90

60

69

So key takeouts..

  • Generally in their second full season, with a handful of games in the first year
  • Early 20s
  • Average around 20 Disposals per game
  • DT Average is in the 80’s
  • Kick to handball ratio is around 50%
  • They score over 90..around 45% of the time
  • They finish the second half of the season like a FREIGHT TRAIN

Bearing that in mind, I have looked at the below 5 players based on their 2011 year:

Rory Sloane
Jack Trengove
Luke Shuey
Jack Steven
Jack Ziebell

So do they compare?

Do they follow the 2010 REDROCK model??

Sloane

Trengove

Shuey

Steven

Ziebell

REDROCK

Age

21

21

21

21

21

21

Ave Disp

20

21

20

20

19

21

DT Ave

87

90

84

79

78

88

Ziebell is really the exception, stringing games together over the past 4 years..but injury has curtailed the amount that he has played.

Let’s look closer in 2011….

What are some of the key stats that jump out from the REDROCK model?

How do these Potential Breakout’s(PB’s) align?

Sloane

Trengove

Shuey

Steven

Ziebell

REDROCK 2010

K/H Ratio

50%

52%

65%

56%

63%

50%-52%

Tackles

5

5

4.1

4

5

3.3-5.2

Scores over 90

7

11

8

8

9

10

Scores under 90

11

8

17

13

11

9-12

% Over 90

39%

58%

32%

38%

45%

45%-53%

Ave when under 90

74

68

71

68

60

60-69

The highlight indicates where the PB’s are above the REDROCK 2010 model.

Trengove stands out with scores over 90, 6 of these were over the ton.. 2 more than any other player.  Sloane and Shuey both showed great consistency with the highest numbers when they average less than 90. Ziebell has a good propensity of over 90 scores but bottoms out when he scores under 90 (bear in mind he did don either the green or red vest on 4 occasions across 2011)

Most importantly in 2010, something clicked Mid Season and both Rocky and Redden came home with a storm.. To me this is key… how do the PB’s perform across the year?

Sloane Trengove Shuey Steven Ziebell REDROCK 2010

DT Ave

87

90

84

79

77.8

87-89

First Half

81

87

79.5

77

67.8

69-79

Second Half

91

91

86

82

105.7

90-94

Diff

10

4

6.5

5

37.9

15-21

Kicks

10

11

13

11

12

9-12

First Half

11

11

12

9.2

9.4

7.4-11

Second Half

9

11

14

10

16

10-12.1

Diff

-2

0

2

0.8

6.6

1.1-2.6

Handballs

10

10

7

9

7

9-11

First Half

7

11

8

8.1

5.6

7.2-9.6

Second Half

14

9

7

9.2

8.1

10-12.8

Diff

7

-2

-1

1.1

2.5

3.2

Tackles

5

5

4

4

5

3.3-5.2

First Half

5

4

3.7

4.6

4.6

2.3-5.2

Second Half

5

6

4.4

3.4

5.4

4.2-5.4

Diff

0

2

0.7

-1.2

0.8

0.2-1.9

They all come home with a bang, I think Sloane and Ziebell are most notable. Sloane in that he really changed his kick to handball ratio (maybe modelling a more Scotty Thompson approach) and Ziebell well he just took off (he did have a score of 4 in round 22.. I have excluded this).

So lastly how do I rank them.. .well I use a variety of different metrics and then rank them accordingly…

Sloane Trengove Shuey Steven Ziebell
Over 90s

3

1

5

4

2

Ave under 90

1

3

2

3

5

First Half

2

1

3

4

5

Second Half

2

3

4

5

1

PPTOG

1

3

5

4

2

Ceiling

3

4

2

5

1

Games<90

2

1

4

3

2

VFM

3

2

1

5

4

VFM on Finish

2

5

3

4

1

 
Total

19

23

29

37

23

Rank

1

3

4

5

2

For mine.. I think Sloane and Ziebell both most closely follow the REDROCK 2010 model. (Bear in mind that Ziebell is suspended for the first 2 rounds of 2012)

Does this mean that they deserve a spot in your starting MIDS? Only you can answer that.

Anybody that has spoke/heard/read anything from me knows that I am a big fan of Sloane and am actually gonna take the risk from the start. Those numbers are really juicy and we all know how the Crows draw looks. Sloane, Thompson or NVB are going to be getting some large numbers and I for one am gonna take the risk.

I had Stevens locked at the end of last year… but only under the condition that he was DPP…sadly not this year.

I think Trengove is a good unique if he fits your structure. Shuey is a jet and will probably prove the stats wrong.

So how about you…are you gonna have a crack at the next big BREAKOUT? And if so…who are you targeting?

Rainman

Follow me on twitter @robrainbird1 (aka Rainman)

Rainman, like the DT Talk boys, hails from Tasmania. Not only does he love his kids, but he loves a stat... almost as much as he loves a hashtag! Follow him on Twitter: @RainmanDT.

109 Comments

109 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Gozzie

    February 14, 2012 at 5:55 pm

    Doh!! What was I meant to say at this point?!@?

  2. Avatar

    Ammin_Hawkkerrrzz

    February 14, 2012 at 5:59 pm

    this is gold, nice rite up Rain

  3. Avatar

    Benatration

    February 14, 2012 at 6:00 pm

    There is no set formula for predicting a break out player!!! Every situation is different, there is no set formula, if you start applying a formula you won’t find the breakout player – simple. However there are some key signs to look out for which were touched on in the article. Personally the two break out guys I see this year are Allen Christensen and Trent Cotchin.

    • Avatar

      Gozzie

      February 14, 2012 at 6:17 pm

      Sounds a bit contradictory – ‘there’s no formula’ – ‘there are signs’. Yes, nothing’s a certainty, but the research is worth it and does reveal the ‘most likelies’.

      I’m with you on Christensen. No doubt Rainman was just looking at Mids.

      Cotchin could well have been included. His stats would, I imagine, have put him mid-range in this sample, but he could well reach the top-of-the-class in 2012. I’m sure Sloane will do well, but Zee is the big question mark for me – he’s got so much talent, a huge ceiling, but so inconsistent. And this is this is the key to picking the breakout – working out when they will start performing consistently. You go on them a season too early it costs you badly.

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 6:39 pm

      Benatration, as stated in the article I looked at players that fitted the mould, I.e. similar age, games played average etc… Heck they are all within a couple of cm’s and kg’s of ech other.

      This article is really just testing the waters of some thoughts that had been swimming around in the brain for awhile… It was done purely for my research.. But thought that the community might find it worthwhile. Trust me I could have quite easily sat on the info and kept Sloane as my “hopeful” breakout…but that is not how I roll.

      Anyway hope you got something from it.

      • Avatar

        Kevin

        February 14, 2012 at 7:26 pm

        Well done Rainman! Get article and very interesting reading. Thanks Buddy for sharing your research. Much appreciated!
        Let me share something with you….

        I was in the inner sanctum at the Bulldogs on the weekend and senior staff there believe it will be a bonus if they get a full year out of Lake and Cooney..

        Dont know if thats of any use to you but there it is.

        Thanks a lot again champ!!

        • Avatar

          Kevin

          February 14, 2012 at 7:26 pm

          Thats Great article!

        • Avatar

          rainman

          February 14, 2012 at 7:35 pm

          Awesome Kev…thanks for the heads up….Lake hasn’t been in my calculations…but bloody hell I am struggling with my back line.. Hmmm maybe some research ;)

          • Avatar

            Kevin

            February 14, 2012 at 10:19 pm

            He is so cheap I really wanted him to come good so I could use the cash else where. Oh well looks like it will be premos and rookies!!

        • Avatar

          Ridley U

          February 15, 2012 at 9:47 pm

          Did they mention Hargrave? He is cheaper than Lake and might be worth a look at if fit.

  4. Avatar

    westy711

    February 14, 2012 at 6:09 pm

    GOLDSTEIN, SANDILANDS, MCEVOY, MUMFORD or JACOBS???

    • Avatar

      westy711

      February 14, 2012 at 6:17 pm

      or LUENBERGER!

      • Avatar

        imofm

        February 15, 2012 at 4:18 am

        Westy711, thanks for your thoughtful & articulate contribution to this discussion.

    • Avatar

      Bacon

      February 14, 2012 at 7:01 pm

      Mumford is in my starting 22.

      God its going to be a long couple of weeks resisting Cox.

      • Avatar

        KerbStomp

        February 15, 2012 at 2:33 am

        lol?

      • Avatar

        kelonwheels

        February 15, 2012 at 5:22 pm

        Look, if you feel like sitting on Cox for a few weeks you’ll likely be blown right out of contention. Cox should be grasped before any balls bounce so that you can ensure you get everything he has to offer.

        • Avatar

          Rayo

          February 18, 2012 at 4:46 pm

          I reading over some of last weeks articles, this comment is gold and seems to have gone unnoticed!

    • Avatar

      Noodles71

      February 14, 2012 at 9:14 pm

      Sandilands. Keep an eye on this new ruck rule which may come into play.

    • Avatar

      hawkers2012!!

      February 15, 2012 at 11:14 am

      Goldstein would be my pick

  5. Avatar

    Gozzie

    February 14, 2012 at 6:10 pm

    Another top shelf article Rainman.

    I’ve also been keen on Sloane the whole PS, but can’t fit him in if I have Barlow. That’s my last remaining Mids decision, apart from confirming the Rookies through the NAB.

    It’s handy that Zee doesn’t have a price rise until R5 – gives us a chance to see if he’s going berko & has to brought in.

    Thanks again for your work.

    • Avatar

      Kuruki

      February 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm

      I am going to hope a certain mister Porpz can smash some scores out early, make some coin dissapear for my dpp rook in the midfield, and pull a Zieball out of his ass. I wonder how much coin ill need to make it work.

      • Avatar

        GJayBee

        February 15, 2012 at 3:02 pm

        I had Fyfe last year!!!!!

        I almost got Rockliff but I @#$%ed up and got Monty instead ahhhhhhhhh

        I am not so game to go for a breakout this year because I am not keen on any of them. I think Sidebottom might, but he’s already $$$.

        McCaffer, Christiansan, Porps, Rohan and my favorites from afar.

  6. Avatar

    Hook

    February 14, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    Good article, definitely something to think about

    I take great pleasure in trying to find the next breakout. I got lucky last year with all off Fyfe, Luenberger, suckling and Rocky which resulted in a top 250 place

    This year I am considering Sloane, Gaff, Gunston in the fwds and even though he is a bit older Hurn. I think now the eagles have better backline players it might release Shannon Hurn onto the wing more with his deadly boot delivering it to the fwds and kicking goals from outside 50.

    • Avatar

      Gregga

      February 15, 2012 at 2:25 am

      As much as I love Hurn having the ball in his hands (Eagles supporter here), he doesn’t get on the end of it from kicks – he gets a lot of handball receives. Incredibly effective player in real footy, but not a dream teamer. I know a lot of people who have been burnt from him. As for Gaff, I’m debating getting him in my side. A lot of upside, he knows how to find it and the Eagles will look to get him the ball 70-80 out as he is a smart user of the football.

    • Avatar

      kingerzz

      February 15, 2012 at 12:48 pm

      mate as an eagles fan i would advise against picking him. He will not consistently score well as he gets tagged often, plus with gaff embley and rosa playing wing plus he isn’t that quick means he will stay in defence.

  7. Avatar

    Silvermountzion

    February 14, 2012 at 6:20 pm

    Great article karnt.

    Please no-one pick Shuey, he has been my unique since DT opened this year.

  8. Avatar

    PurpleArmy

    February 14, 2012 at 6:21 pm

    ‘The suns WERE a team out of Pheonix’???…if that was a reference to say they arent anymore then youd be wrong :)

    • Avatar

      jim cowski

      February 14, 2012 at 6:45 pm

      he means that back then, the suns (to most people) were the nba team from phoenix. now the suns, (to most people on here) are an afl team

      • Avatar

        rainman

        February 14, 2012 at 6:47 pm

        Thanks JC that is exactly what I meant ;)

        • Avatar

          PurpleArmy

          February 14, 2012 at 7:23 pm

          Ohhh i thought you meant on the lines of Seattle supersonics turning into oklahoma city thunder etc etc ;) thanks for clearing that up gents

    • Avatar

      Austin Pwrz

      February 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm

      I am from Phoenix and a Suns fan… Steve Nash is gold! Can I get him into my AFL dream team somehow???

      • Avatar

        FC Dog Whisperers

        February 14, 2012 at 11:33 pm

        clearly not you fu.cking di.ckhead

      • Avatar

        imofm

        February 15, 2012 at 4:23 am

        Yeah, not likely but he is a champ and i hope the Lakers get him…even if he can’t play D

  9. Avatar

    The 19th Man

    February 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm

    I have VB at the moment but after this article im thinking VB to Sloane and the pocket the extra cash

    Thoughts?????

    • Avatar

      Antipasto

      February 14, 2012 at 6:40 pm

      VB to Corona sounds like a solid choice

      • Avatar

        loudaslife

        February 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm

        +1

      • Avatar

        Noodles71

        February 14, 2012 at 9:16 pm

        VB to Boags even better!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Avatar

        FC Dog Whisperers

        February 14, 2012 at 11:34 pm

        Corona? id rather finger my own pi.sshole than drink that. try some australian made beers like little creatures, feral or knappstien. support local brewers you fu.ckhead.

        • Avatar

          imofm

          February 15, 2012 at 4:24 am

          sheesh, lighten up!

        • Avatar

          kbos

          February 15, 2012 at 11:57 am

          yeah u cant drink none of that foreign shit ay. cant trust them foriegners cuz they take our jobs n money n shit ay. seriously, fc dog whisperers, are you a troll or just a f*uckwit? find somewhere else to write this shit please.

        • Avatar

          milhouse

          February 15, 2012 at 4:37 pm

          umm id rather james squire….. real beer. asgood as australia is their top line brewery like cub for example is just shit. And also most of corona becks and heinekin is brewed in australia now, so maybe you shouldnt bash someone without knowing where your beer actually comes from. Did you know VB and Crown are apparently taken from the same barrel? Just different parts of it. (what Ive heard anyway)

      • Avatar

        kingerzz

        February 15, 2012 at 12:52 pm

        hahahahaha +2

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm

      It’s a nice problem to have…. I think nvb is a nice unique and there is no guarantee that Sloane will explode… But I certainly think it is worth the risk.
      Having said that it needs to fit your structure.. Sloane is my Barlow this year, so I probably wouldn’t go for both, but hey whatever floats your boat and more importantly fits your structure, your bye strategy and you’re upgrades. :)

      • Avatar

        The 19th Man

        February 14, 2012 at 7:01 pm

        Well I do have Barlow, but he is a bit of a maybe now after the freo intra club match.

        I just saw that Sloane is only $30k cheaper than VB anyway, so at this stage i’m sticking with VB as my unique

        • Avatar

          benno

          February 14, 2012 at 7:24 pm

          ya cant base picking barlow or not on a intra club match…

          but in saying that (not because of the intra club match) i am considering wether hes worth it… big risk but maybe barlow out… caddy in?

          i want my mids all averaging over 110+… dunno if barlow will do this. he has proven in a short time he can get the high scores… but we dont know what would of happend if he didnt get injurred… lotsa unknowns.
          if he is there to make money and score alright’ish… then maybe i need to look else where??

          or maybe im an idiot… and should just stick with barlow and shut up:-)

          • Avatar

            The 19th Man

            February 14, 2012 at 7:33 pm

            Wait for the NAB cup and make a decision then

      • Avatar

        Matt P

        February 15, 2012 at 6:42 am

        There’s a lot of potential upside in the Crows mids. The game-style changed late last year (post NC) and some players seasons’ changed in an instant. VB is a glaring example of this. Sloane too -he had a massive preseason last year and looked potential break-out then – but managed to break his thumb and jaw in a game early in the season (and played out the game!), which held him back.
        The best part about these guys is the Crows’ draw… very generous… just wish there was more room in the mids to take more chances on ‘breakout’ players.

  10. Avatar

    Ingoes

    February 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm

    Zaharakis played 10 games in 09 and 20 in 10 before breaking out last year. So that certainly seems to support your theory.

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 7:06 pm

      Ingoes..the 3 other players that I considered for this article were Zaha, Sidebum and Dusty Martin..but figured I had done an article on them recently when looking at the dpp mid/fwds.

      Personally I think that one if not all will rocket this year.

      • Avatar

        Matty

        February 14, 2012 at 8:39 pm

        what do you think bacha houli anyone?

  11. Avatar

    Bacon

    February 14, 2012 at 7:04 pm

    I am a MASSIVE Sloane fan. but he’s not in my starting 22.

    Any chance we could risk waiting on Sloane until after the bye rounds?

    The Crows do have a better run home… and Sloane is a gun who may get excited about having to fight for a finals berth….?

  12. Avatar

    Big Feller

    February 14, 2012 at 7:07 pm

    Rainman – based on your input so far I reckon give you the FJ now!

    Great article and has thrown all of my DT plans out the door!

    Keep up the great work.

  13. Avatar

    Andy

    February 14, 2012 at 7:09 pm

    So sick of hearing that Adelaide have an easy draw! All the non VIC teams travel interstate 10-11 times during the season, were the Vic teams only 5 times! And please two Vic teams that both share the same stadium as a home playing each other there is not an away fixture for one of them.

    • Avatar

      The 19th Man

      February 14, 2012 at 7:12 pm

      +1

    • Avatar

      Austin Pwrz

      February 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm

      cha ching

    • Avatar

      giants

      February 14, 2012 at 8:04 pm

      What you don’t take into account there willy is that 10 of Adelaide’s 12 games at AAMI will be against interstate teams, which is a significant advantage. Melbourne teams have no such advantage, half of their home games are against teams who use the same stadium.

      Adelaide isn’t even that bad off in terms of travel. Melbourne will actually travel further in 2012 than Adelaide will, and West Coast and Freo will travel 30,000kms more than both of them.

      • Avatar

        KerbStomp

        February 15, 2012 at 2:38 am

        “West Coast and Freo will travel 30,000kms more than both of them.”

        and make the least noise about it

        • Avatar

          Craark

          February 15, 2012 at 10:48 am

          Zing!
          Although due to the WA guy’s excessive travel, they have an advantage in one way – when every other team comes to them, they tend to suck because they can’t deal with it!

  14. Avatar

    loudaslife

    February 14, 2012 at 7:15 pm

    I’d finally put to bed the final decision I had to make in the mids, Trengove or Barlow (went with Barlow) and then I read this which reopens the decision and adds Sloane to the mix! Cue logging onto DT straight away to start some more tinkering! Great article though.

    • Avatar

      The 19th Man

      February 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm

      NAB Cup will reveal all !!!!!!!

    • Avatar

      GrandOldFlag

      February 14, 2012 at 7:29 pm

      I would really like to take Trengrove over Hayes or Barlow but just can’t justify it to myself, no matter how die hard a Demons man I am. I do have Grimes so could argue the case to have BOTH captains….NO, be strong….must…not…….hit…..TRADE!

  15. Avatar

    PRo_MoE1144

    February 14, 2012 at 7:20 pm

    Hold up! this is almost exactly the same article as i posted about a month ago!!!!! http://dreamteamtalk.com/2011/12/14/afl-dream-team-2012-breakout-players/

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 7:26 pm

      Hey Pro…thanks for highlighting this… Wasn’t aware that your article was in existence but it is great to know that we share a similar mindset and after looking at your article, that we draw similar conclusions.

      Amazing what a bit of research can do hey?

      • Avatar

        PRo_MoE1144

        February 14, 2012 at 7:40 pm

        yeh haha lol, we definately bring up different points to each other. thats all cool aye. its not like your is a carbon copy or anything… :)

        • Avatar

          imofm

          February 15, 2012 at 4:48 am

          Thanks for bringing this up as i missed it the first time and it (also) provides some great research data and food for thought. Much appreciated.

      • Avatar

        kingerzz

        February 15, 2012 at 1:12 pm

        i take it you to have business statistics at uni (stat)?

  16. Avatar

    fivestar

    February 14, 2012 at 7:26 pm

    Wow. We are spoiled for information. You were definitely telling me the truth a week back when you said you had done your research on Sloane. I just wish I could find him a way into my team but that looks unlikely. it’ll be him and Barlow fighting it out for that 4th spot now, so Sloane would have to show me something special to edge barlow out.

    Just wondering if anyone has the ability to go into the archives and find out what both redden and rocky did in the NAB cup last year, just to give a comparison with these players future efforts.

    • Avatar

      The 19th Man

      February 14, 2012 at 7:29 pm

      Yeah, good point about the NAB cup scores from last year, they would be really handy to determine if the NAB cup is a good indicator for the rest of the year.

    • Avatar

      adzman

      February 14, 2012 at 7:42 pm

      rockliff – 42 v ess, 28 v stk… how long were the games again? pretty short i think.

      redden no nab scores.. must not have played

    • Avatar

      GrandOldFlag

      February 14, 2012 at 7:53 pm

      NAB cup games could probably be found but would be hard pressed to find the challenge games stats as that would give you the best indications given that Brisbane did not progress and the short games are not reasonable data.

      http://league32.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/complete-nab-challenge-statistics-dt/

      A word of warning about stats though:

      Heppell ($132500) – 4 games at 54.25
      Astbury ($197400) – 4 games at 79.50
      Suckling ($212600) – 4 games at 81.25

      Suckling looks a bargain (and he was) but Astbury did not average much less and was cheaper. I failed and got Astbury. Heppell didn’t score well in the NAB but scored a healthy (and consistent) 80 odd average in the regular season.

      For everyones info:

      Rockliff – 5 games at 92.40
      Redden – 2 games at 96
      Shiels – 4 games at 74.25

      • Avatar

        The 19th Man

        February 14, 2012 at 7:57 pm

        Thanks

        • Avatar

          The 19th Man

          February 14, 2012 at 8:12 pm

          i think when you go to this link and download the 2011 nab challenge dt results you need to look at the ceiling rather than the average to get an idea of the potential

  17. Avatar

    Reprobates

    February 14, 2012 at 7:30 pm

    Well done. Everybody has Barlow..and he appears to be well worth it. Sloane gives every indication he will average around 100, he is very tempting instead of Barlow…

  18. Avatar

    Ridley U

    February 14, 2012 at 7:42 pm

    I am thinking Grimes. The only issue is staying on the park but think he must be due for a change of luck. Expect him to end up as one of the better scoring defenders.

    Again very dependent on remaining fit and playing 20+ games this games.

  19. Avatar

    giants

    February 14, 2012 at 7:46 pm

    What is VFM?

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 7:52 pm

      Value for money… Average from last year divided by starting price for 2012. Generally you look at an average of $5000 per point… Anything under that is a bonus.

      To answer your next question vfm on finish looks at average for the last half of the year and divide this into their starting price for this year.

      May or may not mean anything, but I use it to help validate best bang for buck :)

      • Avatar

        giants

        February 14, 2012 at 7:57 pm

        Oh, yeah value for money is hugely important IMO. It’s why I tend not to go for the most expensive players from the start of the year. Cheers.

  20. Avatar

    swanlow36

    February 14, 2012 at 7:56 pm

    Awesome article and if Barlow doesn’t have a good workout on Sunday, I’ll consider Shuey instead as a unique.

  21. Avatar

    Blirrel

    February 14, 2012 at 8:07 pm

    Hartlett and S.Edwards are due as well…

    I’m thinking more Ziebell and Shuey from those picks….especially ‘the shue’, hes gonna dominate. brownlow within the next few years….go eagles!

  22. Avatar

    dmac91

    February 14, 2012 at 8:07 pm

    How do you look at/analyse stats?

    I was thinking of trying to import a FFgenie file into Excel, can’t find those files though.

  23. Avatar

    eeepobreci

    February 14, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    Stirling effort!
    I had Sloane in my DTPRO team last year, and was very impressed!
    FWIW my mids atm are Swan, SMJ (GAJ), Pendles, Montagna, Sloane, and they’re as good as locked.
    For once, I’m sticking to my intuitions ???

    • Avatar

      rainman

      February 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm

      Eeep, scarily similar..substitute Joey for Lenny and that is my Mids.. I know 5 is greedy but it just feels right. Anything else feels dirty!

      Gotta sort my defense now..doesn’t quite feel right…research time :)

      • Avatar

        eeepobreci

        February 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm

        “Anything else feels dirty!” is a bloody good way of putting it!
        Oh the times, the times, are chaaaanging!
        Good luck with your def research, you must be seeing names, facts and figures in your sleep! 8O

  24. Avatar

    stew42

    February 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm

    I keep a firm policy of no mid-pricer mids…

  25. Avatar

    matthew garratt

    February 14, 2012 at 9:20 pm

    Two players to have massive breakout years will be Melksham and Colyer at the Dons

    • Avatar

      UnFalconBelievable

      February 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm

      +1 Especially Melksham!!!!!

      • Avatar

        imofm

        February 15, 2012 at 4:49 am

        PRo_MoE1144’s research (refer above for link) would seem to support this.

  26. Avatar

    Ridley U

    February 14, 2012 at 9:29 pm

    I have Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Montags and Thompson in the midfield. Sloane will need to kill it in the NAB Cup for me to change from the current line-up. Will only need to upgrade to Selwood for a complete midfield set. It is food for thought though. If Sloane was $50,000 cheaper I think I could be swayed. Awkward price.

  27. Avatar

    Chook

    February 14, 2012 at 9:43 pm

    Outstanding research and article, Rainman. Really enjoying your reads this pre-season.

  28. Calvin

    Calvin

    February 14, 2012 at 10:18 pm

    Very good article Rainman
    Don’t listen to the haters mate… it’s a top article and people can take away what they want from it. At the end of the day… I was entained for 15mins, so thanks for your efforts mate.

    The comparisons are very interesting, the fact is… 1/2 or more of those guys will break out this year… but picking the right ones is obviously the toughie. if it was simple to pick… we’d all have the same teams and we’d all be ranked #1.

    Whether there is a formula or not… just take what you want out of it and stop whinging at a guy who has just put together something for you to enjoy.

    Top stuff Rainbirdman!!

    • Avatar

      cookiemon72

      February 15, 2012 at 8:56 am

      Haters??? Have i missed something? Feedback looks all positive to me home boy

  29. Avatar

    b-rye

    February 14, 2012 at 10:36 pm

    Great article, thanks. Only midpricer for me is Christensen. Tempted by Shuey but don’t like picking mid pricers in the midfield.

  30. Avatar

    rwoodsy

    February 14, 2012 at 10:52 pm

    Thanks rainman great article.
    You have talked me into Sloane hopefully he goes well in the NAB cup and I have the balls to keep him in my team because right now it’s changing twice a day!
    Right now my mids are: Swan, Pendles, SMJ, Jelwood & Sloane, with Shiel, Mcdonald & Stevens as my “rookies”… pretty intimidating imo hope it works out eh?

  31. Avatar

    rainman

    February 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm

    Guys, once again BIG THANKS for all the feedback. Loving some of the other names that I am seeing come up :)

    My big struggle this year is the back line, so keep an eye out for an article on that sometime soon.

    Always keen to provide info that you guys find useful, so hit me up on twitter or message me if there is anything in particular that you would like me to crunch the numbers on.

    Cheers and happy DTing.

  32. Avatar

    Aidan

    February 14, 2012 at 11:18 pm

    eagles fans join this league: 823523

    • Avatar

      FC Dog Whisperers

      February 14, 2012 at 11:37 pm

      fu,ck the eagles

      • Avatar

        runnamuck

        February 15, 2012 at 1:28 am

        +1

  33. Avatar

    Uncle Fester

    February 14, 2012 at 11:58 pm

    I love this sh!t Rainman, it’s awesome. Top stuff.

    To all the naysayers, ignore the stats at your peril. NAB cup analysis helped me pick Shiels and Ward straight up last year. Shiels a keeper (although should’ve traded him prior to the end due to burnout) and Ward was a servicable leapfrog to a mid premo.

    Will be interesting to analyse if other third year breakouts flameout prior to year end like Shiels did.

    Hopefully this year I can avoid dumb@ss mistakes like picking Gamble last year as a hopeful improver.

    • Avatar

      Jacko

      February 15, 2012 at 3:19 pm

      Anyone else tempted like me to think Shiels might just make the leap to super premo this year. God I’m tempted.

      • Avatar

        Uncle Fester

        February 15, 2012 at 4:02 pm

        Agree. As I said with Shiels, he flamed out towards the end of last season. By round 15 he was averaging 111.4, but by DT season end (ie round 24) his average was down to 102.9. This means he averaged 87.9 in his last 8 matches. With another preseason and years experience under his belt, he could go on with the job this year and maintain some good output towards year end.

        Would be interested to hear from a Hawks fan whether this was just burnout or if his roll changed to more of a defensive mindset.

        Anyway, if he performs well in the NAB cup I might have to reward him with a starting spot in my side as a thankyou for his efforts last year.

        • Avatar

          Uncle Fester

          February 15, 2012 at 4:04 pm

          *role

  34. Avatar

    swans2011

    February 15, 2012 at 12:37 am

    Was burnt badly last year by picking a mid-priced midfielder (Liam Anthony).
    Part of me wants Sloane, the other doesn’t want to be burnt again. NAB cup will reveal all!

  35. Avatar

    johnny37

    February 15, 2012 at 12:45 am

    this really got me thinking if i should get one of these guys into my midfield..
    so which one?
    sloane/shuey and fyfe
    or
    s.thompson and j. brown

    • Avatar

      Uncle Fester

      February 15, 2012 at 1:00 am

      Second option

  36. Avatar

    Gregga

    February 15, 2012 at 2:32 am

    May or may not help people in this situation, but word out of the eagles camp is that Shuey’s preseason is going that well some of the coaching staff reckon that Shuey will become the best player at the club this year. He’s good, but considering that he’s got to overtake the likes of Cox, Glass, Kerr, Priddis and Kennedy, that’s a huge call.

    If it’s true, he’s a steal at the price.

  37. Avatar

    imofm

    February 15, 2012 at 4:56 am

    Rainman, thanks mate, really interesting stuff and very much appreciate the effort. Nothing’s a sure fire formula by itself but when you put it all together hopefully we end up picking our teams based on solid reasoning (and intuition) rather than just following the crowd.

    Going for Christ & Sidebum myself, but now mulling Zieball as an upgrade target 3-5 weeks in.

    Thanks again.

  38. Avatar

    Dolbz

    February 15, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    I’m pretty keen on Shaun Atley.. ($235,000)

  39. Avatar

    albertproudftw

    February 15, 2012 at 1:08 pm

    Ziebel has been in my calculations since last season. obviously wont be starting with him but if i like what i see come rd 5 he may just slot in. Either him or JB

  40. Avatar

    McFirth

    February 15, 2012 at 2:04 pm

    @ dog whisperers – corona in the grey carton is brewed in australia you idiot…. learn the facts before you bag foreigners and they’re piss…

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