Deck of Dream Team 2012: Dane Swan

Name: Dane Swan
Club: Collingwood
Position: Midfielder
Assistant Coach 2012 Price: $598,300
Bye Round: 12
2011 Average: 120.95
2011 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 120

Why should I pick him?

Since 2009, Dane Swan has topped the AFL Dream Team averages for all players. He took his 2008 average of 102.55 (5th best in the competition) to top the averages over the next three years with 119.12  (2009), 123.09 (2010) and 120.95 (2011).

This year, as the highest priced player coming in close to $600K, we all know what to expect from the Great Dane. That is, something like a 120 average for the season and a walk up captain option every single week. It’s fair to say that he will top Calvin’s Captains list the most this season. He is ultra durable, missing only one game since 2007… and that was due to his infamous ‘fat-camp’ over in Arizona in 2011.

As the Fantasy Freako said in this year’s AFL Prospectus, “a quiet game for this bloke is 25 touches and 2 goals”. There is a lot of truth in that looking at his numbers last season, he scored under 100 points only 5 times with 96, 94, 89, 83 and 84 which isn’t too shabby. Most of those lower scores came during the middle of the season before his high-altitude camp in Arizona. He came back with some mammoth scores such as 171 vs Essendon, 155 vs Port Adelaide and 137 vs St Kilda in a 3 week period.

There isn’t much more to say about Swanny to convince you to pick him, we all know he is a gun and will, at the very least, be in the top 3 DT averages/overall points scored in the comp with his mate Pendles and the little maestro, Gary Ablett.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Despite all of the DT awesomeness that Dane Swan possesses, he isn’t currently in my team. Do I want him? Yes. But there are a few variables. For me, I am picking Gary Ablett as my ‘go to captain’ and ‘expensive’ pick initially because I see value in him. Due to the higher Magic Number this season, and also with more lower priced players on a whole (that is a general observation with GWS coming in rather than a mega stats based one), we will see that a lot of our premiums will drop as the lower priced players need to increase in value to keep everything all nice and tight and even. (More on this theory over the pre-season).

So I am seeing Dane Swan as a mid-season upgrade target. It would be ideal to grab him after his Round 12 bye, especially if the Magpies decide that with the success of the trip to Arizona during their bye last year and he misses a game.

I’m sure someone in the comments will say something about new coach, and other midfield options at the Magpies, but I don’t read into that too much. I wouldn’t be not picking him for any of these reasons. It is purely tactical for not having him to start with.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – You’re not going to go wrong with picking Swanny. He will average close to 120 ppg and you will feel pretty save clicking and leaving the Captaincy on him all season. As an ace, you will want to have him in your team for at least the second half of the season… if not more as he is probably likely to bottom out in price about half a dozen rounds in. Watching his breakeven and using the fantastic tools in the Assistant Coach analyser will help you track when the best time to pick him up is. But, then again… just start with him! I’m now thinking that might be the easiest way.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @WarnieDT for all things DT (and more).

This is the final Deck of Dream Team entry for 2012. Thanks heaps for reading and get excited, because tomorrow we get to start making our teams for the new season! Make sure dreamteamtalk.com is where you head to after logging into your new team!