Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers and shakers in the Dream Team Stock Market. In the midst of DT Finals, we’ve simplified the format, taking a short-term approach to look at the popular cash cows to offload as well as assessing the challenges thrown up for the week and how we can manage the situation. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to navigating your way through the few remaining weeks of Dream Team.
Congrats to those of you who survived another week and commiserations to those of you who didn’t. Scores were a bit skewed last weekend, with a few guns massively underperforming when they were needed the most. Late withdrawls of usually dependable cover were also a factor.
The theme of blowouts in AFL matches looked set to continue, but cellar dwellers Port managed to post a semi-respectable margin as did the Suns. It will be an intriguing last couple of rounds, with the bottom end of the Eight being fairly open after the Swans and Kangas both got up.
The content of this article has been pretty fluid over the past couple of weeks and it’s streamlined even further this week with the The Watchlist being absorbed into The Weekly Wrangle due to the obvious overlap of players we might be considering as replacements. The unfortunately reality is that now that we’re this deep into DT Finals, long-term value movements and falling stocks aren’t going to help us much. It’s much more appropriate to assess the options available for the current week to get us through the next round!
The Wrangle this week grapples with our Blues guns having a rest, the onset of the Freo flu and suspended players. To be honest, there is no easy answer to this week’s carnage and these ‘outs’ are likely to decimate many Dream Teams, hurting even those coaches who kept two trades for sideways moves this round. The only consolation is that we have been given a bit of notice and we know what to expect. It will come down to your depth and hopefully you can minimise the damage to field a donut-less 22.
Sell, Sell, Sell
If you’re in the enviable position of not scrambling for cover and have the luxury to trade down-plus-up this week, these particular stocks have matured and are ready to sell this week if you don’t need them to cover any missing guns.
Jeremy Howe $216,500 DOWN$3,700 (UP$124,000) BE72. Getting subbed off after a measly 2 last weekend has Howe’s value plateauing this week, with a projected fall of $4,100 next week. Whether he’ll bounce back this round is the big question, that is, if he is selected.
- Stock Tip: A good $124,000 earner if you trade him out this week.
Ben Jacobs $215,800 DOWN$11,200 (UP$115,300) BE74. Jacobs has been turning out semi-regular 50s-60s, but a last of 29 has his chart heading on a steady downward trend. His value is projected to fall $5,500 next week. He has been somewhat reliable though, and his DEF/MID DPP flexibility is a bonus.
- Stock Tip: Offload him this week and you gain a tidy $115,300.
The Weekly Wrangle
I think a more apt heading for this section is The Weekly Carnage as we take stock of the outs this week that are likely to hurt most coaches. I hazard a guess that most will have at least three of those eight popular picks and a few will have four or more.
- Bryce Gibbs $438,100 (54%)
- Heath Scotland $393,500 (14%)
- Chris Judd $396,100 (26%)
- Marc Murphy $391,700 (13%)
- Andrew Carazzo $337,700 (8%)
- Matthew Pavlich $351,000 (37%) – out with season-ending hip surgery
- Greg Broughton $320,400 (11%)
- Colin Sylvia $311,700 (19%) – out with season-ending suspension
There are basically two approaches that we can take to manage this situation, assuming that we have saved two trades for this week. If you have two Carlton players plus Pav and Sylvia, the first option is to sideways swap two Blues premos for two of equivalent value. The second is to LTI-trade Pav and Colon. The second option is preferable as it gives you the advantage of bringing your two Blues guns back next week as long as you have dependable cover. Of course, how you match up against your opponent will determine which approach you take.
Corey Enright $353,500 (DOWN$27,800) BE38. Enright has been a mainstay for Dream Teamers for years now and this season is no exception, albeit one filled with more highs and lows than desirable. 22% of coaches held on to him through the Cats’ bye last week. His last two are Sydney (Skilled) and Collingwood (MCG) whom he had 88 and 74 against previously this year.
Nathan Bock $349,200 UP$12,000 (UP$23,100) BE78. The form defender of the past few weeks, Bock has a last five of 92, 103, 108, 110 and 55 (against the Pies). He’s reliable and has Melbourne and Hawthorn to finish off the year.
Grant Birchall $310,600 DOWN$3,500 (DOWN$10,700) BE67. He’s not quite the Suckling, but he’s carded 129 against the Bulldogs and 101 against the Suns already this season, whom the Hawks have again in the next fortnight. At his current price, he’s pretty good value considering what he could return for your team.
Michael Barlow $388,500 UP$3,100 (DOWN$67,700) BE98. Barlow’s last score of 88 was against the flow when North Melbourne shredded Freo, which shows that he’ll still fight hard to post a decent score for you. With fellow Dockers falling in a heap around him, he’ll get plenty of the ball in the next two games.
Scott Thompson $411,600 $23,600 ($13,300) BE97. Thommo’s huge 151 would have got quite a few coaches through last weekend’s knockout matches (sorry Warnie and TBetta!). While he can be a tad frustrating with the odd quiet game, he does have a home game this round against Richmond, making him a pretty tempting proposition.
Jack Redden $427,500 UP$3,000 (UP$97,900) BE99. The Redden & Rockliff Combo will be a popular pairing next season, with the young guns absolutely carving it up this year. How about a last ten of 117, 118, 111, 119, 93, 130, 129, 112, 118 and 109?!? At only 3% ownership and boasting a superb average of 110, Jack could carry you to a Grand Final triumph next week.
Liam Shiels $372,400 UP$2,000 (UP$150,900) BE97. With a high ceiling and a great run against the Doggies and the Suns, whom he has already had 122 and 114 against respectively, Shiels should be on your radar. There’s no doubting that he’s likely to put some big numbers up in the next couple of weeks.
Dale Thomas $376,900 UP$900 (DOWN$18,700) BE83. Daisy has a depleted Freo at Petersons and Geelong at the G and should put a couple of good scores on the board. Having rested for a few weeks already earlier this season, he should play out the DT season.
Forward ranks are a bit thin as most will already have a combination of Buddy, Goodes, ROK, Fyfe, StevieJ and Chappy. Looking past the usual guns, we have a few who might just bring home the bacon for you.
Cyril Rioli $345,200 UP$13,800 (DOWN$12,100) BE36. Ok, ok, enough about the Hawks nice run home. In short, Cyril should rack ‘em up for you if you decide to bring him in this week.
Mark LeCras $322,800 DOWN$2,400 (UP$7,000) BE86. Frenchie has Brissie and Adelaide to come and is certainly that bit unique. Though a bit random with his scoring at times, his last five have been 90, 76, 85, 72 and 118, which are pretty respectable from this enigma.
Travis Cloke $380,200 UP$6,100 (UP$26,200) BE97. Feeling lucky? Then Cloke could be your guy! We normally stay well away from key power forwards, but he can pump out some big numbers. His last five are 134, 66, 115, 83 and 119, which highlight his ups-and-downs, so consider with care…
It will be a tough, tough, tough weekend ahead for all who made it through last week. DT Finals are once again proving to be a war of attrition and a big dose of luck is required as benches will be stretched to the limit. Make sure you aren’t going to cop a donut – you don’t want to go down due to missing one or two if you have trades you can use to bring in a replacement or two. As usual, make sure that each trade counts and a massive GOOD LUCK this weekend!
On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT