We are finally here and if you are reading this, you are more than likely in the top 8. If not, there is no shame in the bottom 8 “Tit-Ed” cup, well yes there is but hey, stick with it. I don’t know about you guys but I am really excited about the finals. This year I find myself in the same predicament as I was last year and unfortunately, I don’t think I have learned from my mistakes. What I mean by this is, last year I was involved in a top 4 encounter where I held my trades week 1 as I had a double chance and could burn them next week if I needed. I went down in week 1 only to be hit with complete carnage round 2 and got knocked out in straight sets despite my “plugging holes trade attempts” in round 2. The final 2 rounds I got all my players back and had 2 irrelevant top score rounds for our league that were worthless. So in summary, If I had gone for broke in round 1, I would have won the 2010 premiership.
My opponent is strong and I scraped over the line against them this week, heavily assisted by them holding Gary Ablett which would suggest they slightly have me on paper should he return. Also upon analysing I see that a few of his uniques are playing DT friendly teams which makes my decision to use 1 or even 2 of my remaining 3 trades very difficult. I have learned from last year that a double chance can’t be taken for granted and should be treated as a must win. Here is what I am looking at with instant improvement in mind, but long term needs to also be taken into account. Bear in mind, the only future bye concern is the Cats, but if I win this week, that won’t matter.
Adam Goodes: The big fella is following his usual trend of finishing the year like a steam train. In his last 2 games his possession rate is clearly up and the Swans need to keep winning in order to make finals. He is averaging 126 in his last 3 and will be eager to make up for his recent inaccuracy that cost his team the game. 2 of his next 4 games are Richmond and Brisbane which should produce whopping scores.
Possible trades to Goodes: Sylvia, Harper, Lobbe, all double trades so unlikely.
Sam Fisher: The Fish lined up in the middle for the majority of the match vs Freo and scored a nice 100 in doing so. His last 2 scores are 106 and 92 which makes him a bargain at the price of 315,400. He is the perfect candidate to round out a backline. Possible trades: Heppell (1 bye) Stanley (both straight) Otten, Puopolo, Jacobs, Hibberd, all double trades.
Ben McEvoy: The big ruckman is having a breakout year and has dropped below 90 just once in his last 10 games. He is still quite a unique pick and is capable of popping up for a big 1 which would piss your opponent off massively! Possible trades: Petrie (straight) Lobbe or Smith (Double). Smith is a tempting 1 here because it would allow me to cover Chapman or Stevie J in the forward line next week should I need it.
UPDATE: Bluey has said that Smith will likely be rested this week
Although it is highly unlikely I will trade this week (have not learnt my lesson), my faith in Lobbe or Smith to start on my ground in a final is low. Although Smith did score 100 against the Lions last game, watching him vs the Cats was enough to have me concerned.
Thats my thoughts, use this as a forum to discuss your position, what trades you are thinking and help each other out. REMEMBER: Avoid trading in anybody who has a bye to come, even if they are extremely tempting like Heath Scotland.
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