Dream Team Stock Market – R15

Unfortunately our much-in-demand Aki has been sidelined for a few weeks with injury and commitments. Here’s the Dream Team stock market review for Round 14, which hopefully meets Aki’s lofty standards and feeds everyone’s DT hunger for trading fodder!

The Dream Team fantasy world got back on track with some good scoring last round, with plenty of 2100s and 2200s floating around. Most of our premiums scored well, 51% of coaches welcomed back the Great Dane and we saw Hawthorn cement themselves as our favourite DT-scoring team.

According to a local post on the flatex Erfahrungen website, the DT stock market is as unpredictable as ever this week, with a few bargains to be had, but not many rookie downgrade targets available. I’ll have to refer you back to Chook’s Rooks for the down-low on the young ‘uns. The next few weeks are key to getting your team sorted for the run home if you haven’t done so already, so let’s see how the market is faring!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Matthew Wright – $253,300 UP $14,600 (UP $160,800) BE42. A very solid 99 against the Cats has got Matty Wright’s BE down to a manageable 42 and a projected price rise of $9,000 this week. He’s been up-and-down and is just about peaking, so you can move him on before his value hits the down cycle again.

• Stock tip: A sharp $160,800 earner if dumped this week, or gain a little bit more coin and sell either next week or the week after the Crows’ bye.

Jasper Pittard – $214,500 DOWN $29,800 (UP $116,900) BE127. After tweaking his hammy in the first quarter against the Roos, young Jasper was subbed off for a measly 3. This really bombs out his value until it rolls out in a few weeks’ time after already dropping $29,800 over the weekend. He looks to drop another $22,000 this week, so cash him out if you need to build the bank.

• Stock tip: Trade out this week, gains you a smile-inducing $116,900.

Zac Smith – $312,500 (UP $206,100) BE104. Here’s a tough one! The man mountain who has been filling in for the toe-trodden Sandi for over half of DT coaches is on a bit of a downward trend after a 66 and 74 in his past two games. This is one you’ll have to think through, as he has been playing well enough to maintain an average of 79 which easily ranks him in the Top 15 ruckmen who have played 5 games or more this season. But, if you have your rucks sorted and always intended on cashing Zac in, then now is about the right time.

• Stock tip: $206,100 gain if you trade him out this week, but have a hard think about this one!

Chris Knights – $254,400 DOWN $19,500 (UP $32,500) BE105. Many of us expected Knights to turn into a keeper by season’s end, but his recent output has been pretty ordinary after a bright start. His migraine-affected 20 against the Doggies really hurt his value. While he is projected to rise to about $270,000, that won’t be until around R20-21, which will be too late for Dream Teaming.

• Stock tip: $32,500 gain if you trade him out this week, but obviously frees up a boatload more with a downgrade to a rook.

Nick Lower – $281,700 DOWN $3,900 (UP $189,200) BE85. Lower makes this list purely on numbers. Most who still have him will be keeping him as a D7 or super-sub as he has been pretty productive of late, with scores of 73, 62, 79, 89 and 83 in his last five games.

• Stock tip: He’ll give you a $189,200 gain if you dump him this week, but do you really want/have to?

Trent McKenzie – $274,100 UP $6,600 (UP $176,500) BE84. Going by the numbers, Trent has peaked, with a BE of 84 this week. His 49 against the Hawks in his last game (R13) stalled his price rises after an 81 and 102 before that. His projected value is guesstimated to stabilise at around $260,000 over the next few rounds.

• Stock tip: A healthy $176,500 if traded out this week.

Shaun Atley – $195,500 DOWN $2,100 (UP $99,000) BE76. One of the more promising of this year’s batch of rookies, Shaun’s value chart has thrown a couple of big bell-curves and it’s currently on a negative slide. It’s a shame, but typically of a rook, he has struggled for DT consistency. He has only breached 70+ twice and has turned in quite a few 30s and 40s. His job security is excellent, having been given plenty of games so far, so they rate him at Arden Street. But if you’re chasing cash…

• Stock tip: Gains you a not-too-bad $99,000 this week.

Buy, Buy, Buy (aka Fallen Premos)

Dane Swan – $391,800 DOWN $5,900 (DOWN $119,400) BE97. Swannie is back! Two weeks in the thin air of Arizona looks to have sorted one of our DT golden boys. He pumped out a 125 on the weekend, which is the sort of output we’ve come to expect from him. He looks set to run out the regular home-and-away season strongly. He has bottomed out at a tick under $392k, which might be the cheapest we’ll see him in a long while. With no more byes and a BE of 79 you’ll want to get on this week. Seriously folks, if you haven’t got him, Swannie will finish off your midfield superbly!

• Stock tip: Buy this week!

 

Brendon Goddard – $338,600 UP $7,900 (DOWN $132,400) BE89. What can be said about this former DT god (Godd?) that hasn’t been said already this season? His scores have been as up and down as the Saints’ fortunes, but his last few games have shown that he looks to be back on form with a 56 (against Geelong), 119 and 111.

• Stock tip: Buy this week or next week.

Colin Sylvia – $316,900 DOWN $300 (DOWN $82,600) BE95. Yes, he’s had a couple of quiet games since picking up a nasty corkie against Essendon in R11 with 74 and 78, but until then he has been one of the most consistent forwards. At $316,900, he is fantastic value.

• Stock tip: Buy this week or next week.

On The Up

Isaac Smith – $210,800 UP $59,600 (UP $118,300) BE-73. How about this for a late-season bolter? After a promising start back in rounds 7 and 8 with an 89 and 59, Clarko put him away, which threw out massive doubts about his job security, before dusting him off and giving him a start against the Suns and Bombers for huge scores of 99 and 138! He has an excellent work rate and suits Hawthorn’s ‘possession footy’ tactic nicely. Great for those who got him on the bubble, as his BE is -73 and his projected rise this week is $57,000. The Pies game will be a good test for him and if he can score up around his average, he’s got ‘keeper’ written all over him.

• Stock projection: A rise of $57,000 this week, topping out at around $350,000 by season’s end, but looks like one to hold!

Luke Dahlhaus – $124,900 UP $36,500 (UP $36,500) BE-47. Here’s one who burst his bubble last week with 68 to follow up on a 76 and 34. He looks pretty handy in the Bulldogs’ forward half and seems to have stamped himself in their best 22 as they look to get their season on track.

• Stock projection: A rise of $35,000 this week, sell after R18 for about $200k.

Allen Christensen – $163,900 UP $22,800 (UP $66,300) BE-28. Christensen went nuts against the Crows last weekend, collecting 26 touches and booting 2 goals on his way to 109. His previous scores have been between 20-50, so that big ton injects some spark in his value-potential. He should get a run against the Essendon reserves this weekend and hopefully a game or two more after that to get his coaches a good return on investment in time for DT finals.

• Stock projection: A rise of $26,000 this week, sell in R15-16 for $200k+.

Dan Nicholson – $172,500 UP $32,600 (UP $68,100) BE-16. Like Christensen, young Dan Nicholson has a 90 in his rolling average followed by a 60 to keep his BE down at -16, which makes him a decent short-term money-maker for those who picked him up before R13.

• Stock projection: A rise of $26,000 this week, sell in R17-18 for $220k+.

Rohan Bewick – $165,300 UP $13,100 (UP $67,700) BE-14. We expected much from the mature-aged Bewick, but his AFL career has been as much of a roller-coaster as his DT scores. His last two games have been good, with 70 and 73. His BE is back down to -14 this week and his value is projected to increase by $21,000 as well. But will the roller-coaster ride continue?

• Stock projection: Sell in R16-18 for $185k+, but keep a close watch on his weekly numbers!

Mitch Wallis – $159,400 UP $11,100 (UP $66,900) BE-13. Limited opportunities have stunted Mitch’s DT portfolio, but he’s come on with a 73 and 64 (against the Cats and Hawks), and a negative BE of -13 to start ‘mooing’ once again. If Rocket gets games into the boy, he’ll be good for a quick flip before DT finals time so his coaches can pocket some cash.

• Stock projection: Sell in R16-17 for $180k+, not a great return but puts a bit back in the kitty.

Ben Jacobs – $188,400 UP $11,100 (UP $87,900) BE26. Take out his green-vested 25 in R13 and Ben’s scores have been pretty good: 96, 52, 67, 91 and 53. He’s burly and rated by Matty Primus, so should see out the rest of the season on the paddock. He’ll make a nice end-of-season earner, but given his DEF/MID DPP and job security, this looks like a stock to hold to give you cover in either line.

• Stock projection: Sell in R17-18 for $230k+, excellent return, but provides valuable cover for the rest of the DT season.

On The Slide

Steve Johnson – $420,700 DOWN $34,800 (DOWN $27,700) BE190. StevieJ has been on an absolute tear this season, but his last scores of 66 and 72 are well below his average of 104. Good news for any coaches looking to bring him in though, as he’s projected to fall $26,000 this week and we know that he can hit the highs when he kicks a few goals. Only thing is his bye in DT finals, so weigh his trade-in carefully before pulling the trigger.

• Stock projection: Will bottom out after R16 at around $385k, but will his DT finals bye make him one to avoid?

Leigh Montagna – $358,500 DOWN $45,000 (DOWN $106,600) BE183. You can put him in the same bracket as Goddard as far as his DT season has gone, although perhaps not quite as bad, with injury-affected lows of 45 and 51 in his last two. In his three games before that, Monty was actually scoring alright: 90, 151 and 109. He is a DT gun and I expect that he will want to finish off the season well for the Saints. He’ll drop around $33,000 this week and could be the final gun in your midfield arsenal.

• Stock projection: Looks to be bottoming out after R16 at around $320k, which is an absolute steal for this DT jet!

Jimmy Bartel – $334,900 DOWN $21,600 (DOWN $102,900) BE165. Oh Barnacle, my Barnacle! What’s happened to you this season Jimbo?!? He’s been one massive yo-yo this year and his ever-changing role on the park each week has been a factor in his DT scoring, but this is one stock that could possibly make for a super-sub when he finally bottoms out. His Podsiadly-affected 2 against the Saints will make sure his value drops a bit more, so he’ll probably make the bargain bin in a couple of weeks.

• Stock projection: His price will tumble this week by around $21,000 and bottom out after R16 at the $300,000 mark, which makes this a potential bargain investment, even as a super-sub!

Jed Adcock – $299,200 DOWN $39,700 (UP $36,700) BE136. We know how important the Jedi is in providing rebound for the Lions and I’m looking forward to seeing how he goes when he comes back from his finger-fix (possibly this week). Sure, his last three were 50, 47 and 57, but it’s likely he was given lock-down roles in the hope that his busted digit would come good. In his five games before those, he clocked up 118, 95, 91, 95 and 119. With a BE of 136 and a projected fall of $15k, we can sit back and watch his next game and if he shows us a good score, he’ll be a good pickup for the run to the DT finals.

• Stock projection: Drops another $15,000 next game and bottoms out at about $285,000 after R15.

In Review

Anyhoo, there you have it, a few to watch over the next few weeks and a bit to think about. The DT stock market is a fickle thing and could easily turn on its head after this weekend, so you never know. We’ll just have to wait and see what the market brings next week. Don’t forget to put your Weagles on your bench for their bye this round and get your Saints back on the field. As always, make every trade count and good luck!

– Submitted by TeeTee