As promised somewhere throughout the comments during the last ridiculously long round, I wanted to shake things up a little bit with this segment. It’s all well and good to land a $400+ multi once a month or so, but it just doesn’t make for good reading when we lose every other bet in between.
That said, just like in DT, you’ve gotta back in your chosen players. We know that more often than not, Petrie will outscore Mayne. Most here would agree that Ablett will beat Rischitelli nine times out of ten and when Goodes can’t top 80 points, something’s gone wrong. We haven’t laid many ‘bad’ bets so far… but the DT Gods have not been kind, either.
So! Let’s spread the risk a little. What we’ll do now is lay a series of 2-leg multis for $10 each; most of these will be around $7-8 odds. Land one out of five and we make a little pocket money – two or more and we’re really talking. And just because I can’t help myself, and because we have $60 to burn this week from the original post, we’ll also put five of the best options into a massive last-gasp multi and see what happens.
Getting down to business, here’s what I like on offer this week…
Cox ($2.60) to beat Priddis and Sylvia, into
Grimes ($2.80) to beat Embley and Moloney
Total odds: $7.28
Cox will be a popular VC option this week. While Priddis has the same three-game average against Melbourne as Cox does (102, give or take a point), that was boosted by 154 in a single match which nearly doubled his usual output. Sylvia doesn’t usually score too well against the Eagles (right, Calvin?) so this one may be determined by which Priddis rocks up to play. In the second leg, Grimes has played against West Coast three times for a return of 112, 109, 143. Enough said, lock and load.
Goodes ($2.75) to beat Judd and Jack, into
Redden ($2.75) to beat Rockliff and Martin
Total odds: $7.56
Goodes has scored 116+ in two of his last three against the Blues, with the other score being 37 where he completely went missing and god knows what happened there. All three of the young guns in the second leg have been on fire recently, but I’m backing Redden to outperform the other two this week. Richmond’s best tagger is out and in his only game against the Tigers, Redden knocked out a lazy 117.
Dal Santo ($2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson, into
Gram ($2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
Total odds: $7.25
Crazy? Like a fox. Nicky-Dal’s last three against the Crows read 121, 117, 120. Thompson has always struggled against the Saints and while Goddard is short-priced for a reason, this might just pay off. Gram seems to have a day out whenever he plays Adelaide as well, averaging 118 against them over his last three games.
Watson ($2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton, into
Swan ($1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
Total odds: $4.81
Essendon haven’t played against the Gold Coast before, so we’ve only got half of our usual assessments available, being current form this season. Watson is still in Brownlow form and while the other two guns can do anything, he’s given us no reason to bet against him so far this year. Not sure why Sportingbet didn’t put Boyd into that second leg, but no worries. We all know what Swan can do and he seems to do it particularly well against the dogs.
Thomas ($2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen, into
Murphy ($2.90) to beat Beams and Sidebottom
Total odds: $7.83
Thomas has been a little Katy Perry this year but it’s damn impressive when he gets it right. GWS are really going to like having him lead them out next year. Form line is pretty consistent with Ball but has a much higher ceiling so Thomas gets the money for mine as Griffen always seems to struggle against the Pies. Over the last two years, Murphy has gone 111, 126, 104 to average 114 against Collingwood – seriously! – and with reasonable form this year, should get the job done over two very inconsistent Magpies.
For the final five-leg multi, I’m taking suggestions on where to place some coin tomorrow afternoon. Leave me a comment below with your top three options from what I’ve presented above (and I’m a stubborn bastard, so don’t bother telling me that I should have gone Rockliff over Redden!) and we’ll see if some teamwork can’t buy us a little luck.
Good luck with your own betting, too, and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.