We follow @Dreamteam_Guru on Twitter. He has been handing out some DT tips over the offseason after a great DT year in 2010. We were intrigued by a little formula he came up with to start picking his team for 2011. If you have an article that you think we should post up here, visit the Contact page and send it over!
Dream Team is a game of stats. So armed with a fresh copy of the AFL Prospectus, I designed a formula to work out who are the top 10 players to consider this year.
Firstly I needed a formula. I decided on…
Last Year’s average score + 3 Year Average Score + Draft Position + Average games in the last 3 years + age = magic number.
Now to give draft position a usable number, I did the following
Picks 1-10/Father Son = 10 points
Picks 11-20/Rookie Elevation = 5 points
Picks 21-50 = 2 Points
Picks 51+ = 0 points
I also did something similar with age
Age 18-20 = 10 points
21-24 = 8 points
25-28 = 5 points
29+ = -5 points
So picking a player at random with this formula, Andrew Swallow of North Melbourne, we do the following:
Last Year’s score (99) + 3 year Average Score (80) + Draft Position (2) + Average games in the last 3 years (15.6) + Age (8) = 204.667.
Thanks to Excel, I was able to do this with every player.
Now let’s have a look at who are the top 10 players…
10. Marc Murphy of Carlton with a score of 240. Averaging 100 over his last 3 years, being a top 10 draft pick (number 1 in fact), as well as being highly durable makes him an excellent choice.
9. Scott Pendlebury of Collingwood with a score of 245.667. Last year’s average score of 107 helps push Pendles above many. Its hard not to like this bloke – even with him wearing black and white…
8. Michael Barlow of Fremantle with a score of 246. Averages 110. However, I think he will be overly priced this year, and I can’t pick him with his leg at present. Will watch his price drop before I jump on.
7. Leigh Montagna of St Kilda with a score of 249.333. Great player to pick, as he is left off a lot of players radar. Out of the bottom half of my top ten, he is one I will be considering big time!
6. Joel Selwood of Geelong with a score of 249.667. With Gary leaving, his score will either increase due to his position being more vital, or it will decrease with the extra attention. Not 100% sure on Joel for season ’11.
Equal 4th .Jimmy Bartel of Geelong with a score of 253. I think Jimmy will flourish without the presence of Gary. Bartel was first in the rankings last year, and “only” averaging 105 last year hurt him compared to the top 3.
Equal 4th. Matthew Boyd of Western Bulldogs with a score of 253. A bit like Montagna, he can be a good player to have because no one else will have him.
3. Brendon Godard of St Kilda with a score of 254.33. The only non-mid fielder on this list makes him a lock for sure. Only problem is, everyone else will have him.
2. Dane Swan of Collingwood with a score of 268. When I started this project, I was sure he would turn out to be number one. If I hadn’t of rated Father/Son selection so high, he would have been. Needs to be picked this year. Unlike Gary, I won’t be waiting on his price to drop.
1. Gary Ablett of Gold Coast with a score of 273. Only player to be in the 270s, and over 30 points higher than Marc Murphy in tenth place. Says it all really. With Ablett not available to dreamteamers in rounds 1 and 9, I am hoping for a price drop in his first 7 games before jumping on in round 10. That’s my plan at this stage!
Follow @Dreamteam_Guru on twitter for more insight from the guru.