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Calvin's Captains

Calvin’s Craptains – Rd. 4

Welcome to Calvin’s Craptains!! I have no idea what went wrong and I really don’t know what to say. I have picked people some dud captains over the last week and my neck hurts from shaking my head at so many under performing gun players. But the show must go on!

What the Hell Went Wrong?

Welcome to Calvin’s Craptains!! I have no idea what went wrong and I really don’t know what to say. I have picked people some dud captains over the last week and my neck hurts from shaking my head at so many under performing gun players. But as the worlds greatest captain selector, I must take some responsibility and I’m really sorry, and that’s why I’m back this week after nearly throwing in the towel after the Voldt died last week. So here I am and I will be doing my bloody best to nail us some rippers this week!

Can You Pick An Injury?

We’ll what sounds like a silly question has caused me massive grief, because apparently some people out there can pick when people will get injured, and that’s why they didn’t go Voldt. Ha ha, seriously that’s the stuff I’ve been hearing.  F%#k me!! No joke! There are some mega morons out there and are these people psychic doctors?….argggg, I’m as mad as a pirate!

As you can see, thanks to my snazzy table on the left there, some teams are really starting to stand up as teams NOT to pick captain against. The table shows how many 100+ scores these teams have given up in the first 3 rounds. These teams have been very tough to score 100+ scores on and if you are considering captains Vs these guys, make sure you know your shit, cause these dudes are locking teams down. For the record, these teams are playing the following guns this week so look out these guys… Kane, Harvey, Anthony, Vince, Thompson and with St Kilda playing Freo and Brisbane playing the Dawgs… we’ll… who knows?? There could be massive scores against each other or very little 100+ score which is what happened when Freo played Geelong last week. Arrggg

Lets go and remember that the number next to the player listed is their average in their last 3 games Vs this weeks opponent.

West Coast Vs Essendon

Watson – 99
Stanton – 97
Priddis – 93
Selwood – 87
Hille – 85
Cox – 84
Kerr – 72

Starting in the West, we don’t have much to chat about here. Priddis averages 93 here in his last 3 games and with 103 and 102 in his last 2 here, he is looking good early, Selwood’s run will continue as he has had 93 and 98 in his last 2 here but it’s finally nice to see Jobe at the top of one of these lists. Firstly, I have Jobe and he is pissing me off. He better lift here and with 121 and 96 in his last 2 he might be a chance to ease my head ache. Stanton averages 97 with a huge 128 three games back in 2008. David Hille has been frustrating many in 2010 and in his last 2 he has had a bad 55 and then a smashing 133.
SAFE BET– Priddis

Kangaroos Vs Sydney

Kirk – 95
ROK – 90
Jude – 89
McVeigh – 89
Goodes – 85
McGlynn – 79
Harvey – 77
Anthony – 71*
H-Mac – 67

Once again another quiet game this one. It would be tough going anyone against Sydney and even after Harvey’s 163 last week, lets not forget he had a shocker the week before. He averages 77 here and like many players in the AFL he hasn’t had a 100+ score Vs the Swans in his last 6 games. Jude is in the same boat as Harvey as he too has not scored 100+ on the Roos in his last 10, oh and Anthony’s 71 is just from one game. Ben McGlynn gets his first and probably only mention ever in CC’s after he has averaged 138 in his last 2 games this year. ROK averages 90 here with 129 in his last games Vs them back in round 14 last year.
HOT TIP – O’Keefe

Adelaide Vs Carlton

Thompson – 109
Gibbs – 98
Vince – 96
Edwards – 96
Carrazzo – 95
Marc – 86
Goodwin – 80
Judd – 68

A little more to look at here but still not a lot till we get to the big boys. Bernie Vince plays his 4thfavourite team here with 134 and 101 in his last 2 against them and with Gibbs’ average of 98 he had a cracking 128 in his last game against them. Thompson has had previous scores of 127, 98, 101, 120 here and  they are his favourite team of 2009, but with 0x100+ scores this year, you have to over look him despite his history. Carrazzo has had previous scores of 78, 112 and 95 here and Juddy is back this week looking for a huge impact. Won’t happen though. Adelaide are his 2nd worst team to play behind St K and with a 100+ score next to his name ever in his 15 games against them, it makes you wonder if he might as well stay at home again this week.
HOT TIP – Thompson

Collingwood Vs Hawthorn

Buddy – 130
Ball – 128
Shaw – 122
Mitchell – 112
Hodge – 108
Swan – 105
Pendlebury – 100
Lewis – 92
Lockyer – 90
Didak – 80
Riolli – 55

Here we go, some of the big boys to chat about. Lets roll with the Pies to start with. Heath Shaw should be back this week and if he, expect huge things. With a smashing average of 122 here he has previous scores of 110, 107, 150 (34d, 15m), 106. The Hawks are his favourite team to play by a mile and despite he isn’t really in your calculation and despite he hasn’t scored a 100+ score on the MCG in his last 4, I’ll back him in with a little $10 bet in this one in the head/head/head section on sportingbet.  Pendlebury has had 102 and 108 in his last 2 here and Luke Ball’s numbers are amazing. With previous scores of 136, 95, 154, these guys are his favourite team of the last 3 years so expect a big one off him. Dane Swan pumped out solid numbers last week and this week will be very interesting.  He is averaging 113 this year and had 35d, 8t in his last game Vs the Hawks.  With previous scores of 141, 76, 98, 125 it a little hard to know what to expect. Hodgey has started 2010 in wicked style with an overall average of 123. With his last 2 scores of 138 and 125 (averaging 33d) he looks hard to stop once again, and with his last 4 games at the MCG averaging 114, I’ll be considering him for sure. Jordan Lewis was gutsy as hell last week to run back out on the field after I saw one of the biggest hits ever. He has had 103 and 110 in his last 3 Vs these guys. Sam Mitchell has scores 5×100+ scores in his last 7 games Vs the Pies and look like another option here. Buddy Franklin has had 106, 139, 146 in his last 3 games Vs the Pies and has a total of 19 goals, 14 points during that time, crazy! He’s done nothing so far in 2010 and despite what those numbers say, you can’t click on Buddy with any real confidence… oh and he’s out anyway.
Home Shit Home– In previous weeks I have been pumping up Swanny at the MCG as his home ground where he smashes everyone! But we do need to know his last 2 scores there have been 84 and 90.
No Tags by Hawks– Last week, I watched the WDB Vs Hawks game at Eti and saw no true evidence of hard tags from the Hawks. They let Boyd 154 and Griffin 126 do as they please. So Pie fans, lets hope you get the same freedom.

Brisbane Vs Westerndawgs

Boyd – 103
Brownie – 100
Cooney – 93
Gia – 90
Power – 87
Gilbee – 85
Black – 85
Fev – 84
Brennan – 82
Higgins – 81
Cross – 76

Brennan will be a popular pick to replace the injured Voldt in most teams, but check this out first. He’ll return from suspension this week to front a team he hasn’t scored 100+ on in his last 7 attempts, ouch. Big Brown  Dawg has had previous scores of 120, 89, 90 and 124 and is averaging 124 for the year. Last week he smashed out a 65 till half time and then only knocked up another 29, so he could explode again for a biggy at the GABBA. Cooney average 93 in his last 3 here but the 3 scores before that he went 148, 122, 103. So he has the ability here to go bang again, but who knows? Gia had 117 in his last game Vs the Lion but overall this is his worst team to play! Cross too plays his worst team DT wise and has not scored a 100+ score on them in his last 5, although he has cracked that 100 mark in all his games so far this year. Boyd is a star! A real jet! He’s averaging 129 this year and has previous scores of 125 (36d), 108, 75, 122, 138, 140. The Lions are by far his favourite team to play and he should have a big day out again.

Richmond Vs Melbourne

Deledio – 107
Bruce – 90
Grimes – 75*
Green – 64

Anyone really looking here for a captain? Doubt it, but for betting purposes I’ll go quickly. Delids has had 108, 76, 136, 113 in his last 4 Vs the Dees and Grimes’ average is just from his 2 games against them. Surprisingly enough Greeny has never scored 100+ Vs the Tigers in his 13 games against them. Next!
SAFE BET – Delids

Geelong Vs Port Adelaide

Corey – 124
Ablett – 124
Chapman – 114
Enright – 91
Selwood – 86
Kane – 81
Johnson – 81
Bartel – 78
Boak – 55

Righteo, here we go with the big boys. Lets get Port out of the way first. Kane has had a great record Vs the Cats. Between 2008-06, he had numbers of 108, 123, 114, 145, 131… but with just 73 and 62 in his last 2 here, maybe they have worked out that he doesn’t really tag, he just pretends too so he doesn’t get tagged. Chapman had 144 in his last game Vs Port and has a low score of 97 in his last 4 games Vs them, pretty impressive. Gary Ablett has had 148 and 127 in his last 2 against them. Those 100+ scores are his only 100+ scores ever here. Before that he had a string of 11 games failing to crack that magical mark. Looks like they either let him go, or he has just worked them out and now smashes huge numbers, interesting thing to note though. Lets hope he does go back to his old old ways against them. Joel Corey has worked them out. 113, 110, 149, 114 are his last 4 scores against them averaging 32d. But with 0X100+ scores against his name this year, we are still wondering when Joel will get back to being his dominate self. I’m tipping this week for sure! And then we have Jimmy and I must say I’m a little shocked here, in a sad way. He has not cracked 100+ Vs these guys in his last 3 games, but before that he averaged 132 in the 4 matches prior with a huge 183 in that (Rd. 16, ’05). Jimmy’s form this year indicates that he’ll be ok here, but those last 2 scores scare me. Very weird and before that he killed them… so why has he been sucking Vs them in his last 2. Ummm….
Very Skilled Stadium– At SS, Ablett averaged 117 there in 2009, but Jimmy loves it more. He averaged 120 there in 2009 and cracked 100+ in every game except 1. In that 1 games where he fail he still managed 87. Look out!
Port Will Cop It – Cats lost last week = Cats Angry = many points for us!
Taggers don’t have 30+ touches– Kane doesn’t tag. Tagging means to sacrifice your game to kill another dudes. He goes head to head and just wins all his battles. Last time he played the Cats, he did this to Selwood (63) and will most likely go there again!

St Kilda Vs Fremantle

Goddard – 103
Dal Santo – 99
Montagna – 95
Hayes – 91
Pavlich – 84
Gram – 76

The numbers up there don’t look great, solid but nothing amazing, Montanga had 119 last time he played them and Dal Santo had 116 which was his only 100+ score Vs them in his career of 11 games.  Lenny Hayes has had a low score of just 75 in his last 5 here, but it’s Goddard who has the cloud over him this week. Goddard is rumoured to play forward, which could be a blessing or a DT killer…. Arggg?? He averages 103 here to top the list with scores of 104, 98 and 106 in those games. Pavlich has had 72 and 70 in his last 2 games here but has cracked 100+ a nice 4 times in his last 7 games against them. Barlow crashed back to earth last week with just 46pts after averaging 127 in his first 2. He’ll find this one tough again against the gun midfield of the Saints.
Freo Lock Down– Crazy hey. Last week even the Cats had trouble. Freo let just 2 players crack 100+ and 2 players crack 90+, will we see the same here, I’m tipping nope!
Pig Tag… and Now Jones– Barlow will cop it again I reckon. Two of the harder tags in the games and with Jones being a genuine tagger, surely he’ll go to Barlow. I tipped Jones to Didak last week, lets see if I’m right here.
HOT TIP– Montagna

We’ll here we go again. Who will I pick this week?  I really have no idea. My top 5 I’m pretty sure will go very well. After the Pies gave up 7×100+ scores I’m leaning towards Hodge or Mitchell (in my 5thspot and yes I can have 2 in there) as I don’t have any of the other 4 guns up there which is why my teams is so shit. For the record of saying one of them, lets say I’m going Sam. He averaged 119 on them in 2008 and had a 97 from just one game last year. Or Hodgey ummm, he might play like Gilbert did last week Vs the Pies for his 152 (34d, 20m)…. Argg… Sam for now and if I change, I’ll let you know. I hope everyone has better luck than last week.

Robinson and Martin: Who will you be picking?

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Do you need a Captain? Then Calvin will help you out. Don't want a Captain? Calvin will tell you anyway. The man who digs deep into stats will help you pick a great captain and give you plenty of Fantasy advice. Follow him on Twitter: @CalvinDT



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