Cal’s Scale of Hardness – Finals Edition

Here we go again… I have been working very hard today with my cal-culator and have crunched the numbers for the run home over the Fantasy finals.

The complex formula is even more complex than ever before. Also, because we all like pretty colours, I’ve added a beautiful blue into the mix.

The “Difficulty Rank” are the teams ranked, based on how hard they are to score against.

But this time, I weighted more importance on the last four weeks than the points they have given up over the course of the year.

Although this did come into my cal-culations, the percentage of weight in the last four weeks is much higher than what numbers that teams have given up over the course of the year. Both still play a factor and both were still cal-culated.

The chart with the last four rounds is simple to understand, and it’s based solely off the colour ranks in the “Difficulty Rank” list.

However when cal-culating the teams with the best run home, I have also added ‘bonus points’ to teams who are at home to travelling teams. This is weighted on a percentage based on how many points they have given up over the last four weeks alone.

Of course, some home games are ‘insignificant’. Such as Geelong traveling to Etihad to play the Bombers. This is an Essendon home game, but with no particular advantage to them playing a Melbourne based team, and no particular disadvantage to the Cats.

I’ve more so focused on inter-state travel. Such as in the Adelaide v Brisbane game this week. Adelaide at home have been granted ‘bonus’ points under my complex system as they will be at a huge advantage this week. However when they play Port in round 22, no bonus was of course given.

calscaleofhardnessfinals2016

In summary…

1 – Teams are ranked based on what they have given up in the last four weeks and overall this year, with more emphasise on the last four games.

2 – Teams with a significant home ground advance have been awarded ‘bonus points’ based on the amount of points the team they are playing are conceding in recent weeks.

3 – Hope that makes sense.

Just trust me… everything is in tip top condition here.

45 Comments

  • You’re a legend

  • Hannebery or Treloar ?

  • With an easy run home, will that lead to teams ‘resting’ players for finals? I.e Sloane, Dangerfield

    • Beware serial offenders ie Hawthorn, especially with 2 game lead, and Geelong have old men that need extra recovery. But the bye week before finals SHOULD mean no point resting guys.

      • Yeah the worry round is vs west coast in R22… even with the week off, who’d be surprised if he gave Sam Mitchell et al a week off the taxing travel demands.

        Especially if they are 2 games clear.

      • ross lyon will stil rest 10

    • The one week break before finals should minimise the risk of resting players.

      • Also, crows, geelong etc are all tied so will need to get the best % boost possible each game so can’t really see sloane and the like being rested. Dangerfield is going for the brownlow as well so doubt he’ll miss.

  • Yeah agree with the Sir there.
    That BYE round after round 23, should be enough. No one will need two weeks rest and with only four games to go, people will rest sooner rather than later. Like the Dogs did with Boyd and Suckers this week.

  • Love the work Cal!

  • Excellent article !

    I’m a sucker for clicking on anything with one of those ‘current affair’ style big red stamps !

  • Zac Williams, James Kelly or Bachar Houli for D6?

  • great article, just one question (not a smart arse question). You have Carlton’s run below STK, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Both Stk and brisbane play Carlton, all 3 (stk GC and Bris) all have a top 8 team to play (brisbane 2) Carlton dont. Or is the positions you have given them irrelevant? ie simply blocked by colour? and no real ranking from 1-18? cheers, as I said, top work.

    • ie, blocked by colour, no team in the light green block is ranked, just grouped together.

    • I do agree with you as it seems Carlton should most definitely be above at least Gold Coast. The only possible explanation I have is that it isn’t really in order, only separated by the colour blocks.

  • Great article, really useful tool, but would definitely add that it’s just a tool and everything is relative to the fund/players you are looking at… Adelaide have a great run home, but I am still looking at picking up Treloar this week at a steal $44k less than Sloane and use that cash for upgrades next week.

  • Is it better to pick up Sloane or go with the greater PoD in T.Adams?

    • I reckon a lot of it depends what your objective is – are you going for overall or league?
      If it’s overall, unless you’re inside the top 100, just go for whoever you think will score the most, because whatever you pick there will be people you can climb above just by picking good players.
      If you’re really well ranked, go unique, it’s boom or bust.

      If it’s for a league, decide if your team is better than the people you’re going to be up against and decide if you need to chase points by being unique or match them up.

      End of the day, pick who you think will score the best out of the players you can pick from.

  • Great article Calvin. Given Vince’s tough run home and average form lately would you consider off loading if you have a full team?

    • If you have a full team, yes.

    • Yeah, if he’s the worst/most out of form player on your team, upgrade away!

    • Thanks guys, I think it is between Vince, Titch and JJ that have to be upgraded

      On ground team is currently:

      Def: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Vince, Laird, JJ
      Mid: Danger, Rocky, Stevens, Sloane, Pendles, Hunter, Hanners, Titch
      Ruck: Gawn, S Martin
      Fwd: Merret, Zorko, D Martin, Riewoldt, R Gray, Montagna

  • Another point that hasn’t necessarily been touched upon is that the 3 teams with the easiest run home are also locked in a tight race for top 4.

    Given the week off after the final round of the season, it seems to me that there is less likelihood of players being rested from teams that have a need to win every game from here on out. For example, given Bartel skipped the trip to Perth, it may be that he plays the balance of games through to finals.

    Having said that, Lewis or Mitchell might cop a rest if it’s clear that Hawks will finish on top.

    But unique premiums like Bont, Kennedy, Conilio and Sloane in my opinion wouldn’t be rested when qualification for a home QF (or in Bont’s case, reaching QF at all) is on the line.

    • Sorry, just saw that discussion above

      • I’d say a two week rest may be detrimental to a players form though. They might take them to Perth anyway and just reduce their game time (which actually might be worse for us Fantasy coaches!). Just speculating, but it’s entirely possible.

        • Breust said today that they might still rest some, and employ the bye week to play an intra-club match to keep them somewhat match-ready.

  • Rhys Stanley a POD?

  • Zorko or dusty??

  • Dahlhaus or D.Smith and why?

    • the house. because certain to fill in more midfield time (than normal, compared to Smith) in the coming weeks.

  • C.smith>D.Smith or Dahlhaus
    Jacobs> goldy or Mumford
    Or
    C.Smith>D.smith or Dahlhaus
    Currie> down to a ruckman to cover Jacobs have frost

  • Thanks Calvin you legend!

    I’m sitting 126th and to maximise points this week I’m actually considering:
    Vince -> Enright
    Montagna -> D.Smith

    DEF: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Laird, Vince, Bartel [Castagna, Collins]
    MID: Dangerfield, Rockliff, Parker, Hunter, Hannebery, T.Mitchell, Lewis, Duncan [Mathieson, Sumner]
    RUC: Gawn, Martin [Naismith, A.Smith]
    FWD: Z.Merrett, Zorko, Martin, Riewoldt, Gray, Montagna [C.Smith, Reid]

  • The Mohs scale of mineral hardness is based on the ability of one natural sample of mineral to scratch another mineral visibly. The samples of matter used by Mohs are all different minerals. Minerals are pure substances found in nature. Rocks are made up of one or more minerals.