Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 3

HISTORY SAYS “NO”

Although my mate ‘History’ says NO here, I think I’ll say yes.

However, these guys will not make my top 5 this week, as they don’t tick all the boxes.

Patrick Dangerfield has a shocking record against the Lions with 0x100+ scores in his last four games against them and only 1×100+ against them in his career 10 games. Danger plays on his home ground for the first time this week since joining the Cats and you’d like to think he’d carve it up. The Lions give up the 6th most Fantasy points in the competition, but with that said, Danger is coming off 75 from last week.

The GWS is one of Luke Parker’s worst team to play with 0x100+ scores against them in his career 6 games against them. Parker has had 106 and 135 in his first two games and should be fine this week, although he’ll have history and the form of GWS against him. Read on so see why…

GIVING UP THE POINTS

Did you know that Port Adelaide have given up the second most Fantasy points this year and 5×100+ scores a game? Enter David Zaharakis and Zach Merrett.

Warnie’s mate Zaharakis has averaged 126 (ranked #6) this year and has even scored 97, 118 and 115 on the Power in his last 3. Zach Merrett is currently ranked as the #1 forward in the game with an average of 128. Until this year, his best 2nd best ever score was 118 and that was against… you guessed it, Port Adelaide last year.

Collingwood have given up the most 100+ scores this year (11) so expect Jack Steven to rack up big time on Saturday arvo. He had 138 on them last year and is averaging 114 so far this year. I love this bloke and he’ll reward you well this week.

In the same game, which will be very high scoring as both teams bleed points, Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams will also be great. Pendles role is somewhat questionable as he has only managed 98 and 84 so far this year. He has averaged 113 on the Saints in his last three but sadly, he comes with too much of a risk here based on his efforts so far.

Adams would be my pick and although he hasn’t been awesome (101, 95), he is about to explode against the team that has given up the most Fantasy points this year and the 2nd most 100+ scores.

RESTRICTING THE POINTS

On the flip side… some teams are strangling their opposition and not allowing the points to flow like we’d prefer. Dustin Martin meets the Crows this week and they are currently the 2nd hardest team to score against. Dusty had 114 last week though and 116 last year against them and should buck this trend this week at Etihad Stadium, a ground he averages 96 on in his last 3 games.

Daniel Hannebery and his Swan’s team mates also might have a battle on their hands as they meet the Giants, a team that has conceded the smallest amount of 100+ scores (1) in their two games. Add to this, Hannebery hasn’t scored 100 yet this year and only managed 83 and 111 against the Giants last year. Bugg tagged him in his most recent game(83) which means maybe this week, he’ll most likely get a Coniglio tag, after he held Dangerfield to just 75 last week.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

Hawthorn – the 4th hardest team to score against and the 2nd highest scoring team.

Western Bulldogs – the 5th hardest team to score against and the highest scoring team.

A game of free flowing footy, or a game of lock down? Combined, both teams have only given up 7×100+ scores so far this year. However, I think it’ll be a high possession game, with both teams being very reluctant to turn the ball over, as they know it will come back faster than ever.

Lachie Hunter had 130 last week and can junk it up with the best of them. He averages 121 in his last three under the Etihad roof and should get busy along with Sam Mitchell who is coming off scores of 146 and 124. He loves playing the Dogs and has scored 120 and 125 against them in his last two and goes for his 6th straight 100+ on them this week.

Jordan Lewis hasn’t put a foot wrong this year with 110 and 134 and has even had 152, 102 and 106 on the doggies in his last three. He prefers the MCG though, a ground he averaged 14pts more on last year compared to Etihad.

FUTURE PIGBookieboard

Who can smell bacon? Tom Mitchell is on fire and is currently ranked as the #1 midfielder in the game with scores of 143 and 132 (avg. 32d, 9t). Now, Mitchell didn’t play against the Giants last year but scored 93 and 113 on them before that. So  I’ve already covered the fact that the GWS have given up the fewest 100+ scores so far this year and honestly, that is a concern. It’s only two weeks of data, but we still need to be aware.

Will he cop a tag from Coniglio? Very unlikely… the way he plays basically makes him untaggable. The Giants will most likely target Hannebery, Parker and many others before him.

Tommy loves the SCG though so to put your mind at ease, look at his last 4 games there. 132, 163, 138, 132. There you go, I think I’ve said enough. #oinkTOMoink

IN A FEW WORDS…

Todd Goldstein v Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena (Hobart): 155 on Melbourne last year but can he be trusted after 62 last week? You can call that one… but rucks are dodgey as right now.

Sam Gray v Essendon @ Adelaide Oval: Amazingly he’s never played Essendon and is coming off 70 from last week. The Bombers haven’t bleed the points we’ve expected. Too risky although I think 120 is within reach.

Gary Ablett v Carlton @ Metricon Stadium: Last week the Swan’s midfield, Mitchell 143, JPK 106, Parker 106, Jack 97 and Hanna 96 all scored well against the Blues and so will Gaz back on his home ground. He had 114 on them in his last game back in 2013 and should be awesome on Saturday night.

Stefan Martin v Geelong @ Skilled Stadium: Stef monstered the Geelong rucks last year (134 and 124) but how will he go against Zac Smith and how will he go after starting 2016 with an average of just 88? Mumford had 94 on the Cats last week and I think Stef can have a solid 110+ this round.

Aaron Hall v Carlton @ Metricon Stadium: 126 and 125 in his last two games, Hall is on fire. He averages 113 in his last four at Metricon and is one of a few, that you could lock in as you captain with confidence.

CCround3

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66 Comments

  • Is Sammy Mitchell the real deal lads? Top 8 mid?

    • In his price range there are better options IMO. Mitchell has been let run free both games, add in a possible tag, rest, injury (33 years old) dosn’t seem like 600k is worth it. TMitchell, Steven, Lewis are better options at that price (In that order)

    • Definitely a top 8 mid. Try and name 8 other mids who will score better than him? Tags are all but dead and even when he is shown attention, he still busts out a 90. The only thing he didnt have coming into this season was a huge ceiling – but he’s proved he does. No Hodge, no Sheils makes him a no brainer.

      • Rocky, Gaz, Steven, Adams, Titch, Hanners, Lewis, Pendles.

        • Pendles not a cert with his role. Although I do agree that Smitch won’t be top 8 end of season. He may be by average, but not by total points.

          • Given the Pies are getting hammered in the midfield, I would imagine that as soon as he is fully fit, Pendles will return to the midfield. Even so, I see a few others outscoring Sam Mitchell over the course of the season. Didn’t see one mention of him on here in the preseason and has never avg over 103 in his career, but two good games and he is all of a sudden a must have and lock for the top handful of players in the comp? Not really buying in to it to be honest.

          • Averaged 112 in 2011. This seems to be lost on many people. I’ve seen numerous people say he’s only averaged 103 when that is incorrect

          • My apologies, not sure how I missed that! Still, think there are better options, especially when Sam is at his optimum price.

          • Out of interest who would you go out of Hanners and Danger? They are the other two in looking at for Rocky

          • Picked Hanners over Danger at the start of the year, so will stand by that. Danger has a few favourable matchups in the coming weeks, but I’d prefer Hanners as an option for the season. Think a bit of the trade hype with Danger has translated in to Fantasy hype, some of it unwarranted.

          • Yeah couldn’t agree more man. I think Danger will be good and average between the 106-110 mark but I see Hanners 110 minimum pushing 115. Danger has been well over hyped. He’s in as many teams as Ablett and I know who is the much better fantasy option

        • I’m having serious doubts about rocky these days. Yes he’s a hall of famer & previous pig! He seems unable to stay on the park long enough to be an asset”frustrating option” IMO. Pendles hasn’t shown to much yet either,he was a must have but with a few added ball magnets has hindered his output.

  • Dam it Calvin! Steven was without a doubt going to be my captain this week and now everybody else is going to jump on! hahahahaha

    Great read though mate, well done.

    • All of us who have Steven will consider him every round.

      • Yeah I’m a bit annoyed lol I was a proud Steven owner since round 1 and he has had the orange ‘C’ next to he name both games

    • über pod god what a pick jack steven keep that hush hush. big secret. lol what planet are you on. if you have steven then 90 percent of the time he will be your captain. but hey cats out the bag now

  • I need a 100% score of at least 100 – Mitchelll or Merrett

  • Hey Calvin, interested in your thoughts on Jordan Lewis as a unique captain option this week. He’s in good form, and scored 152 on the Bulldogs last year. Only concern is he doesn’t score great at Etihad. What do you think?

    • Try reading Calvins comments on Lewis before posting mate.

      • He didn’t really say his thoughts though, he said the he hasn’t put a foot wrong although he prefers the MCG over the Etihad. He never said if he thinks he will do well or not, thus our friend Joke_R here was asking how Calvin thinks he will do. Maybe you should read Calvins comments. Mate.

    • hey calvin what are your thoughts on gary ablett as captain..one of the most underrated players to ever play can usually get to a ton most weeks..thoughts?

  • Loving the stats Calvin. Probably going to keep the C on Steven, but considering Hall as I’m trying to play catch up after a terrible start

  • Any love for Robbie Gray..?

    Smashing it so far with two 120s, and could have been more last week if he kicked straight (kicked 1.3)…. Surely he’ll continue this against Essendon?

  • Prestia a sneaky Captain option? Loves playing Carlton, especially with Gaz in the side.

    • Not sure Prestia I’d go Hall before him

    • Although I didn’t captain Viney last week (almost did), his score has put me off giving mid pricers the fabled armband. By all means however, Prestia does have a chance to top score Round 3.

    • When captaining a mid-pricer you want to make sure they have an awesome ceiling so that the potential massive reward outweighs the risk.

      With that being said, I don’t feel Presita is that guy as he only has 1 140+ game ever I believe. Hall and Ablett have the better ceilings imo.
      http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_match_statistics?mid=5660&sby=13#t1

  • Is Tom Mitchell a SAFE bet to get at least 100? I don’t care about big scores I just want a solid score guaranteed I had rocky last week and week before 109 and 24

    • I’ve said before that Titch is the new pig. I’ve pretty much given him the armband for the whole year if he keeps it up.

      • Ok hope he’s the man. Sigh remember the old days when u had good old set n forget Swanny

  • Calvin – read comments on Merrett you made. You say Port leaking points and you say Merrett is top forward, you neglect to say he is currently the 4th highest scorer of any position. He was not in your top 5, what do you predict he will get?

    • I think that Port would be hell bent on making up for the Showdown loss and will outclass the Bombers in a lot of ways. I still think Merrett will reach 100, but maybe not above 115. So he’s still a decent captain choice but there are better options.

      • +1, Port won’t let up much, I believe it will be a low scoring game, similar to Melbourne last week. Merrett maybe just sneaks into the Top 10? To many other (better) options this week.

      • Yup will stick with Tichell

  • Great, more reasons for me to pick Zaha

  • After starting the year with –
    76 (hanners 1st round)
    75 (danger 2nd round)
    I’d be thrilled to see ANYTHING above 3 figures. Might have a stab at Taylor Adams.

    • Can’t go wrong with him. Has only averaged 22.5 disposals from his two games, but still avg 98 (4.35 DT per disposal). Only a matter of time before he busts out the 30+ disposal game we know he is capable of and you are looking at a 130+ score. Won’t have a better opportunity to find form than against the Saints at the ‘G.

  • Feelings about Fyfe, poor round 1 but bounced back last week. How is his history against the Eagles?

    • Averages 102.5 against the Eagles and has gone 100+ in their last 5 games. Only 2 of those 110+.

      He is a solid option, but you question whether the massive ceiling will be there, as he is less likely to go 120+ than Steven, Titch, Gaz, etc.

  • Danger’s past means little to me when he’s playing at home against a shitty lions team

  • who to have as capt this week :|
    M.Murphy
    O.Wines
    S.Gray
    D.Zorko
    L.Greenwood
    M.Blicavs

    HELP!

  • Gaz

    That is all.

  • 113 seems pretty crap by gaz 2013 standards.

  • Thoughts on Fyfe now? Almost bottomed out in price and looks like he can average 105+ again this year

  • Personally I think big Tom Boyd will accidentally knock out Josh Gibson in the first 10 minutes and The Package will go on to kick 9 and nearly crack 200!
    Spose I better trade him in then

  • How does upgrading Sam Gray to Zac Merrett sound? Just have enough cash after downgrading Rocky to Zaharakis.

  • Who would you rather play in M8 – C Mills or Menadue?

  • Two words for the C this week
    Jason
    Johannisen

    The young pup is in his 50th game under the roof of Etihad..I just cannot see him scoring under 100, even though going up against my beloved Hawks.