Tom Rockliff – Deck of DT 2016

rockwiz3Name: Tom Rockliff
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position:  MID
AFL Fantasy: $579,000
AFL Dream Team: $606,900
Bye Round: 15
2015 Average: 104.6
2015 Games Played: 16
Predicted Average: 129

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Why should I pick him?

In my opinion, you shouldn’t have to. The AFL Fantasy website should be beginner-proof, with Tom Rockliff sitting pretty in your midfield the second you sign up. Unfortunately, he’s not, and he’s currently in just 48% of squads. These next few paragraphs are here simply to right the wrongs of the remaining 52%.

If you don’t already know Rockliff’s a dead set gun, then I might as well be playing charades with the blind here. Even though 2015 kicked off to an undeniably rocky start (sorry) courtesy of a pair of nasty rib injuries, the Lions’ Captain still managed to salvage his season by dropping below 90 points just once in his last 13 games. Consistency gets a massive tick.

This is where your pants should tightening for fantasy reasons – we’re blessed with huge value for picking the guy that’ll likely don the ‘C’ for your squad in the majority of games this year. Let’s not forget that Rocky owns the World Record 134.7-point seasonal average from just two seasons ago, and now he’s in his physical prime. We’re essentially getting a Ferrari for the price of a BMW, or in raw currency, a $166k discount on his best work. Value: tick.

Speaking of his best work, that’s exactly the type of form he was exhibiting to punctuate the 2015 season. I can’t decide what sounds more impressive – that he averaged 126 points from Round 15 onwards? Maybe the 6-week run of 120+ scores to end the season? Or perhaps it was his scorching run of 143, 140, 159 and 149 in the midst of fantasy finals? Form, tick. Massive ceiling, tick.

While we’re here, let’s finish off the wish list for what we want in a Super Premium. Durability is a huge factor across the board, and despite missing a chunk of games last season, I’m not worried at all. Broken ribs is a freak injury, unlikely to repeat after a year of healing and certainly not worthy of the same concern as chronic soft tissue injuries or talent-dulling knee calamities. His medical history had been rock-solid (sorry) previously, missing just 10 games since his debut season – with a few of those for getting a bit too cheeky with opponents.

I could talk about the fact that he’s a perennial Triple Trouble threat (25 touches, 5 marks, 5 tackles, basically guaranteeing a century-plus average) or honestly anything about “Lockliff” for hours on end, but I’m wary of boring all the sane people who’ve locked him in. Plus, if you’re not sold by now, you’re either insane or so stubborn that you probably never will be.

TLDR – Gun. Fit. Lock.

rokcwiz1

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Error 404 – Cons not found.

Seriously though, there is no downside. Zero. Unless you hate winning, happiness, or bargains, there’s nothing worth speculating here.

rockwiz2

Deck of DT Rating:

ACE – I strongly considered not writing this article and going with Beamer instead (which, by the way, I could have replaced ‘Rockliff’ with ‘Beams’ throughout this entire article then tweaked a few numbers and it would have made almost perfect sense. Beamer’s worth a serious look… But I digress.) – he’s just that big of a lock. But what would AFL Fantasy be without Rockliff, and DT Talk’s Deck without its latest Pig-like sensation?

If all things run smoothly and sensibly this year, Rockliff WILL be the highest averaging fantasy player for 2016. You might say that’s boring, but you’d be wrong. Trust me; watching Rocky bust out absurd totals for your Classic side while tipping back a few red cordials on a Saturday afternoon is far from boring, and enough to make you near suicidal if you’re stupid enough to overlook him. Don’t be that guy.

Will Rocky be the #1 midfielder this year?

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35 Comments

  • Long time listener first time commenter. Great series boys, goes to show 52% of the population can be wrong. I’m really thinking this is the year where the usual premmo/rookie strategy may not be as effective as a lot of midpricers.

    • Thanks for taking the time mate.

      A lot of interesting value picks this year and as always, if you hit those mid-price options then you’re laughing. I’m loving an underpriced midfield (Rocky, Gibbs, Crouch, Libba etc) and there’s certainly a lot of promising Premium Lites worth our time in defence.

  • Did we really need this article? haha

    lock for me. Make that two.

    • Exactly! As I said though, it wouldn’t be DT Talk without Rocky love and hopefully, it helps gets his ownership but up to where it should be.

  • Hey Tbetta, you gotta remember anyone silly enough not to lock in Rocky is probably silly enough not to be reading DoDT. Happy to have the cannon fodder!

  • Thanks Tbetta for giving up your own personal time.
    I am surprised only 48% have selected Rocky.Your terrific in depth article surely will sway the doubters.
    Gee in real life if a Mercedes Benz in perfect condition was selling at a significant discount, would someone buy another lesser quality car at the same price???

  • wish you did not write this article now the others will get on board. But i guess if they were savvy enough to read DT and other sites they would already have him so i am guessing the 52% who don’t really have no idea andare picking their teams based on who they like as players that’s all good fun too of course

  • I like red cordial

  • i ate a big red candle

  • Ablett is a plus 1 too

  • Dammit TBetta, he was my POD.

    Great article dude, can’t wait to see him and Stef roaming around all season scoring 150’s!

  • Do we really need an article on Rocky? If you don’t pick him you shouldn’t even be playing DT LOL.

  • RDT locked him Ablett Crouch and Libba

    Saving me coin to spend on decent premos in other lines

  • But wasn’t rocky golden run at the back of the year when beams was out???

    • You’re correct. It was also when Venus was coming into Mars’ orbit, All Ords were down 2 and a half points and the Chinese handball team were undefeated.

  • Hi all six spots left in our league.. come join!
    Fantasy DT Talk 2016 – UPAUP47U

  • Locked! Loaded! Captain! Let the season begin!

  • Nice work Tbetta, great article.

    Personally think it should have been shorter and more scathing of the teams without him :P

    Hard for me to admit, but he was selected before Neale.

  • good article. nobody wants to bash their brain with stats and analysis on a saturday. nice easy pick. how about ‘no brainer saturday’ for a new segment? pendles next week.

  • I thought Deck of Dream Team was for players a little bit left of centre, not the lock of the season.

    What a waste.

  • I didn’t start with him last year and it was the best decision I made. He was in my team come finals though.

    • last year he was priced at 135 average, while capable, was gonna be uphill battle to maintain that. this year he’s priced at 105. that’s an average that he should obliterate if he stays injury free

  • Lockliff

  • Anyone remember the traders top 8 mids before last season started? I think they might have got 1-2 out of the 8 right. Just saying picking the same players might be your downfall.

  • The hardest dilemma of choosing Rockliff this season I think will be the round 1 captain choice. Do we got Ablett over Rockliff who is playing against Essendon but has a slight foot injur. Or do we pick Rockliff who can go massive but is playing away against the “West Coast Web”.

  • Love your work Tbetta. Superb.